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  #2311  
Old 07-13-17, 04:48 PM
Arrogate Arrogate is offline
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But it certainly doesn't mean you are a diamond in the rough. If you are the 28th ranked prospect in all of baseball, (think of how many players there are in every major league farm system) you are noticed and sought after. Doesn't mean you will pan out but there is a lot of acclaim around you if you are the 28th ranked prospect.
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  #2312  
Old 07-13-17, 04:50 PM
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In fact I wouldn't call anyone in the top 100 a diamond in the rough just based on sheer volume of players
  #2313  
Old 07-13-17, 05:25 PM
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Originally Posted by Indiandad View Post
2007 28th prospect Nick Adenhart tragically died
2008 Chris Marrero playing in Japan
2009 Gordon Beckham career .240 hitter with no power
2010 Derek Norris career .230 hitter
2011 Jason Kipnis All Star 2015


Being ranked 28th doesn't guarantee much.
No sh!t moron. I guess since it doesn't guarantee anything their teams and other baseball people don't value them very much as future assets and will trade them away for a players like Suarez and Cozart.

If you are the 28th rated prospect at 19 yo, it means baseball people value you as a potential all-star player. They aren't undervalued diamonds in the rough.
  #2314  
Old 07-13-17, 08:31 PM
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Originally Posted by eastside_purple View Post
Feldman's ERA is 3.94. Good post.
Which is why I said "rank".

Judging ERA and WHIP across years is inaccurate because they didn't pitch to the same players in the same venues etc.

Ranking them based on their peers is a far more accurate judging of ability.
  #2315  
Old 07-13-17, 08:34 PM
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Originally Posted by Arrogate View Post
But it certainly doesn't mean you are a diamond in the rough. If you are the 28th ranked prospect in all of baseball, (think of how many players there are in every major league farm system) you are noticed and sought after. Doesn't mean you will pan out but there is a lot of acclaim around you if you are the 28th ranked prospect.
So if 20% of 28th ranked prospects pan out, that's considered good?
  #2316  
Old 07-13-17, 08:36 PM
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Originally Posted by eastside_purple View Post
No sh!t moron. I guess since it doesn't guarantee anything their teams and other baseball people don't value them very much as future assets and will trade them away for a players like Suarez and Cozart.

If you are the 28th rated prospect at 19 yo, it means baseball people value you as a potential all-star player. They aren't undervalued diamonds in the rough.
Clearly Toronto valued an aging Knuckleballer enough to trade their top ranked and 3rd ranked prospects.
  #2317  
Old 07-13-17, 08:51 PM
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Originally Posted by Indiandad View Post
Clearly Toronto valued an aging Knuckleballer enough to trade their top ranked and 3rd ranked prospects.
Clearly, yes, they valued an aging knuckleballer, who was one of the hottest pitchers in baseball over the previous 3 years and came off a CYA, as they wanted to make an win-now push. I guess that means Suarez will draw a team's best pitching prospect, who also happens to be a diamond in the rough. Good insight.
  #2318  
Old 07-13-17, 09:21 PM
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Originally Posted by eastside_purple View Post
Clearly, yes, they valued an aging knuckleballer, who was one of the hottest pitchers in baseball over the previous 3 years and came off a CYA, as they wanted to make an win-now push. I guess that means Suarez will draw a team's best pitching prospect, who also happens to be a diamond in the rough. Good insight.
You're right, they'll probably trade him for a bag of balls and some sweat socks.
  #2319  
Old 07-13-17, 09:35 PM
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You're right, they'll probably trade him for a bag of balls and some sweat socks.
Nah, they'll get top-50 young starting pitching prospects.
  #2320  
Old 07-13-17, 09:40 PM
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Originally Posted by Indiandad View Post
So if 20% of 28th ranked prospects pan out, that's considered good?

If he is the 28th ranked prospect, at age 19, in all of the MLB minor league system, he is not a diamond in the rough. Not even close. A diamond in the rough is someone who was maybe drafted late, not ranked high, and turns out to be a good player. People who are ranked 28th are noticed, sought after, aren't diamonds in the rough. If they don't work out they are busts. The 20% has no bearing what so ever on him being a diamond in the rough. He is sought after and highly regarded if you are a top 28 player at age 19.

They are called prospects for a reason. But if you are 28th you are noticed and not a diamond in the rough.

Last edited by Arrogate; 07-13-17 at 09:58 PM..
  #2321  
Old 07-13-17, 09:57 PM
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Originally Posted by Indiandad View Post
Which is why I said "rank".

Judging ERA and WHIP across years is inaccurate because they didn't pitch to the same players in the same venues etc.

Ranking them based on their peers is a far more accurate judging of ability.
Dickey's ERA+ was 138, 112, and 139; Feldman's is 112 for a half year in 2017. Feldman's ERA+ is only marginally better than Dickey's 103 this year. And I'm not even sure what you are trying to prove. You think Dickey wasn't a good pitcher when he was traded? Okay. But he did come off 3 very good years and a CYA. In any event, none of this bolsters your argument that Suarez could yield a Snydergaard level rated prospect. Suarez wouldn't bolster anyone's lineup that much to warrant such a trade.
  #2322  
Old 07-14-17, 06:59 AM
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Originally Posted by eastside_purple View Post
Dickey's ERA+ was 138, 112, and 139; Feldman's is 112 for a half year in 2017. Feldman's ERA+ is only marginally better than Dickey's 103 this year. And I'm not even sure what you are trying to prove. You think Dickey wasn't a good pitcher when he was traded? Okay. But he did come off 3 very good years and a CYA. In any event, none of this bolsters your argument that Suarez could yield a Snydergaard level rated prospect. Suarez wouldn't bolster anyone's lineup that much to warrant such a trade.
The Red Sox have A glaring need at 3B. Easily the worst 3B group in baseball. They have had 3 players play 3B producing 4 HR and 21 RBI while batting a tick over .200

Suarez has 12 HR and 44 RBI and a .254 average. A significant upgrade. Suarez is also under control for another 3 years.
Boston's number 1 prospect is a 3B in AA. In 77 games he is hitting .300 and probably ready to go to AAA. He is 20.
Suarez would make sense as he allows them to slow down The kids progression and allow him to mature not mention his arbitration clock.
The Yankees, a division rival which Boston leads by 3.5 games are also in the market to add 3B help.

The Reds are clearly in need of pitching. The asking price for Suarez better be the 34th prospect in baseball, a 19 yo pitcher. As history has shown, a prospect in that position has a 1 in 5 chance of being an impactful MLB player. Anything less would be stupid as Suarez could play either SS or 3B for another 3 years for the Reds.

Those are the strengths and weakness of both sides. How each team weighs and values each strength and weakness is unknown to us.
  #2323  
Old 07-14-17, 07:51 AM
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You still terribly over-value Suarez, much like your Cozart argument earlier in the thread. No one in baseball is giving up their 34th ranked prospect for an average 3B. The Reds can certainly ask for that, but most teams will hang up on them then and there. A handful may hear them out but look for something/someone else to sweeten the deal.
  #2324  
Old 07-14-17, 08:08 AM
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Originally Posted by Indiandad View Post
The Red Sox have A glaring need at 3B. Easily the worst 3B group in baseball. They have had 3 players play 3B producing 4 HR and 21 RBI while batting a tick over .200

Suarez has 12 HR and 44 RBI and a .254 average. A significant upgrade. Suarez is also under control for another 3 years.
Boston's number 1 prospect is a 3B in AA. In 77 games he is hitting .300 and probably ready to go to AAA. He is 20.
Suarez would make sense as he allows them to slow down The kids progression and allow him to mature not mention his arbitration clock.
The Yankees, a division rival which Boston leads by 3.5 games are also in the market to add 3B help.

The Reds are clearly in need of pitching. The asking price for Suarez better be the 34th prospect in baseball, a 19 yo pitcher. As history has shown, a prospect in that position has a 1 in 5 chance of being an impactful MLB player. Anything less would be stupid as Suarez could play either SS or 3B for another 3 years for the Reds.

Those are the strengths and weakness of both sides. How each team weighs and values each strength and weakness is unknown to us.
You're crazy. No way will Suarez command that kind of return. Both teams have young studs in the wings at 3b- the Red Sox are more likely to roll with Devers than to overpay for Suarez. I'm not sure Suarez is a significant enough upgrade over Headley to over pay with that kind of asset either. I could see one of them forking over a talent like that for more proven third basemen like Moustakas or Frazier.
  #2325  
Old 07-14-17, 10:06 AM
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It's probably also worth noting Suarez's slash line monthly splits look terrible and doesn't inspire much confidence to warrant dealing a top prospect.

April/May- .329/.415/.610/1.025
May- .255/.325/.441/.766
June- .190/.343/.321/.664
July- .222/.364/.259/.623
  #2326  
Old 07-14-17, 11:24 AM
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To cut to the chase, we have a good 3rd baseman in Cincy now, and we have a good prospect coming up through the ranks. Both can't be starting 3rd basemen, so at some point you keep one and trade one. Do you trade the one that gets you more in return, or do you trade one because you don't need two.

Suarez can play short...not sure if he's a major league caliber shortstop. Not sure if he can play any other positions. At this point I don't know that Senzel has played anywhere other than 3rd. Senzel does not have a ton of pop in his bat, and that's what corner infielders and outfielders do in 2017 in baseball.
Suarez has become one of the better defensive 3rd baseman in the NL, and has been up and down with the bat - sounds like Todd Frazier, doesn't it??
  #2327  
Old 07-14-17, 11:30 AM
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Originally Posted by eastside_purple View Post
You're crazy. No way will Suarez command that kind of return. Both teams have young studs in the wings at 3b- the Red Sox are more likely to roll with Devers than to overpay for Suarez. I'm not sure Suarez is a significant enough upgrade over Headley to over pay with that kind of asset either. I could see one of them forking over a talent like that for more proven third basemen like Moustakas or Frazier.
So a 3B on the last year of his contract hitting .213 with 16 HR and 44 RBI will get a 34th ranked prospect but a SS hitting .315 with 9 HR and 35 RBI won't get much?

Or the same 3B will bring more than a 25 yo with 3 years control left hitting .254 with 12 HR and 44 RBI?

You are consistently inconsistent.
  #2328  
Old 07-14-17, 11:41 AM
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Originally Posted by Indiandad View Post
So a 3B on the last year of his contract hitting .213 with 16 HR and 44 RBI will get a 34th ranked prospect but a SS hitting .315 with 9 HR and 35 RBI won't get much?
Guess you missed the part where he said proven 3B.

Quote:
Or the same 3B will bring more than a 25 yo with 3 years control left hitting .254 with 12 HR and 44 RBI?

You are consistently inconsistent.
Are you back on the Cozart for Russell trade?
  #2329  
Old 07-14-17, 11:42 AM
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Originally Posted by Indiandad View Post
So a 3B on the last year of his contract hitting .213 with 16 HR and 44 RBI will get a 34th ranked prospect but a SS hitting .315 with 9 HR and 35 RBI won't get much?

Or the same 3B will bring more than a 25 yo with 3 years control left hitting .254 with 12 HR and 44 RBI?

You are consistently inconsistent.
They are looking to "win now" and Moustakas and Frazier have a much better track record than Suarez, who is trending very poorly this year anyway. But to answer your question, yes, neither Cozart or Suarez will yield the kind of return you are asking (Russell or a top 30 ranked prospect).
  #2330  
Old 07-14-17, 11:51 AM
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So moving into the 2nd half, are you currently satisfied with the trajection of the rebuild?

The rebuild of the bullpen has been phenominal. We've gone from one of the worst bullpens in baseball to one of the best in one season. Most of that is the move of Iglesias and Lorenzen to the bullpen, and the acquision of Peralta.

The everyday lineup is a work in progress, but making strides. Basically you started 2015 with Frazier at 3rd, Phillips at 2nd and Jay Bruce in right. You now have Suarez/ Peraza/ Schebler in those 3 spots. Add Duvall in left, and you could say we've been rebuilding left field for years.

And the jury is still out. None of these guys have jobs locked down for sure other than possibly DuVall, and he may be the one guy we have that has quite a bit of trade value. The next level is Senzel, Winker, Herrera and a few others.

Now the starting rotation is a mess, not necessarily because the rebuild has failed, but more because of injuries. Bailey / DeSclafani / Finnigan were all supposed to have 25+ starts this season and due to injuries that just hasn't happened. Stephenson/ Reed/ Davis / Garrett have all been disappointments and just not have stepped into these rotation spots. We will get there, it's just been bumpy. We would view this team alot differently today if we got even 25% more quality starts than we've had this season.
  #2331  
Old 07-14-17, 11:58 AM
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Also, even with Frazier's poor BA, he still is a more consistent and more productive offensive player than Suarez. His power numbers and OPS numbers definitely support this. Also, Frazier is definitely heating up after a very cold start this year (the opposite of Suarez, who is trending downward badly). As a GM, who wants to win now, I'd feel much better trading higher to get a known commodity like Frazier or Moustakas knowing I have a stud 3B ready in the wings next year, than an average controllable player, where is value the rest of this year is unknown.
  #2332  
Old 07-14-17, 12:46 PM
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Originally Posted by eastside_purple View Post
Also, even with Frazier's poor BA, he still is a more consistent and more productive offensive player than Suarez. His power numbers and OPS numbers definitely support this. Also, Frazier is definitely heating up after a very cold start this year (the opposite of Suarez, who is trending downward badly). As a GM, who wants to win now, I'd feel much better trading higher to get a known commodity like Frazier or Moustakas knowing I have a stud 3B ready in the wings next year, than an average controllable player, where is value the rest of this year is unknown.
Great point, if you are only looking at Frazier as a rent a player. Frazier is making $12 mill this year/ Suarez making just under $600,000. Production as it relates to value, Suarez in a landslide.
  #2333  
Old 07-14-17, 12:48 PM
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Originally Posted by eastside_purple View Post
Also, even with Frazier's poor BA, he still is a more consistent and more productive offensive player than Suarez. His power numbers and OPS numbers definitely support this. Also, Frazier is definitely heating up after a very cold start this year (the opposite of Suarez, who is trending downward badly). As a GM, who wants to win now, I'd feel much better trading higher to get a known commodity like Frazier or Moustakas knowing I have a stud 3B ready in the wings next year, than an average controllable player, where is value the rest of this year is unknown.
First on moustakas: he would be my first choice but is he going to be available? KC may be in a buying mode. His price would be very high.

As for Frazier vs. Suarez: Boston needs an upgrade at 3B. In your opinion Frazier is a bigger upgrade this year. Suarez would solve their 3B issue for 3 years and be a trade asset when Devers is ready. Suarez is a big enough upgrade this year imo for Boston to win now.
  #2334  
Old 07-14-17, 12:49 PM
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Great point, if you are only looking at Frazier as a rent a player. Frazier is making $12 mill this year/ Suarez making just under $600,000. Production as it relates to value, Suarez in a landslide.
What other way would Boston or NY look at him? They both have stud heirs to 3B beginning next year....or sooner for Boston.
  #2335  
Old 07-14-17, 12:50 PM
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First on moustakas: he would be my first choice but is he going to be available? KC may be in a buying mode. His price would be very high.

As for Frazier vs. Suarez: Boston needs an upgrade at 3B. In your opinion Frazier is a bigger upgrade this year. Suarez would solve their 3B issue for 3 years and be a trade asset when Devers is ready. Suarez is a big enough upgrade this year imo for Boston to win now.
3 years? Devers will likely get a shot this year.
  #2336  
Old 07-14-17, 01:03 PM
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Great point, if you are only looking at Frazier as a rent a player. Frazier is making $12 mill this year/ Suarez making just under $600,000. Production as it relates to value, Suarez in a landslide.
Teams like NYY and Boston aren't too worried about the ~$3,000,000-$6,000,000 they will have to pay Frazier. You focus too much on the money. In some cases, yes it matters for a team rebuilding like the Reds. For a team who is contending and has never ending cash flow? They will take the better player.
  #2337  
Old 07-14-17, 01:30 PM
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Great point, if you are only looking at Frazier as a rent a player. Frazier is making $12 mill this year/ Suarez making just under $600,000. Production as it relates to value, Suarez in a landslide.
If they (Red Sox) have a stud 3B in the pipeline why would they want anything more than a rent-a-player to help them down the stretch this year?
  #2338  
Old 07-14-17, 03:37 PM
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If they (Red Sox) have a stud 3B in the pipeline why would they want anything more than a rent-a-player to help them down the stretch this year?
Because that stud 3B is a 20 year old who has played a whopping 77 games in AA.

If he comes up this season it is because they failed to make a trade.

They'll likely keep him in the minors for another year or two, possibly more.
  #2339  
Old 07-14-17, 03:38 PM
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Teams like NYY and Boston aren't too worried about the ~$3,000,000-$6,000,000 they will have to pay Frazier. You focus too much on the money. In some cases, yes it matters for a team rebuilding like the Reds. For a team who is contending and has never ending cash flow? They will take the better player.
Agreed
  #2340  
Old 07-14-17, 03:40 PM
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Because that stud 3B is a 20 year old who has played a whopping 77 games in AS.

If he comes up this season it is because they failed to make a trade.

They'll likely keep him in the minors for another year or two, possibly more.
Very unlikely he's in the minors more than another year.
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