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  #151  
Old 05-19-18, 09:30 PM
clarkgriswold clarkgriswold is offline
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Great race for the 6 seconds we could see.

On to the Belmont. Curious to see what rested horses come out of the woodwork.
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  #152  
Old 05-19-18, 10:16 PM
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Entertaining race that looked cool on TV but probably sucked there. The NYC media should do a good job of hyping the Belmont so there will be a lot of interest in three weeks. Hope the race holds up to it.
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  #153  
Old 05-20-18, 09:32 AM
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Hofburg, Vino Rosso, Bravazo, Free Drop Billy all will race in the Belmont as of now.

What will Audible, My Boy Jack, and Solomini do? All of these horses have part owners who also own Justify
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  #154  
Old 05-20-18, 09:49 AM
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Horse to watch is Ax Man, he won the race before the Preakness. Baffert wanted to run him in the Preakness but elected not to. He jokingly said today he may consider the Belmont. Would be funny if he threw in a horse with a running style similar to Justify. That would piss off his connections.

He is one to watch moving forward, especially for middle/late summer races like the Travers/Haskell.

He is of the same mold, late improving type, like Arrogate and West Coast. Following a similar path and trajectory.
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  #155  
Old 05-25-18, 08:20 AM
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WinStar is a stallion/breeding/racing operation who owns Justify. They were offered 60 million from the Irish giant Coolmore (Ashford Stud in the US). If he were to win the Triple Crown they will add another 25 million.


Wowsers
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  #156  
Old 05-25-18, 08:32 AM
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The Zayat's, owners of American Pharoah, sold him for about 10 million when he was a 2 year old, to Coolmore. With incentives they ended up with about 30 million.

They sold him early and didnt make as much as they could have but they still have a percentage of AP. Dont feel too bad for them, they own a good chunk of AP's father, Pioneer of the Nile, who they also raced in his career. His stud fee is around 150,000.
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  #157  
Old 05-25-18, 08:36 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Arrogate View Post
WinStar is a stallion/breeding/racing operation who owns Justify. They were offered 60 million from the Irish giant Coolmore (Ashford Stud in the US). If he were to win the Triple Crown they will add another 25 million.


Wowsers
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  #158  
Old 05-26-18, 08:38 AM
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Surprised WinStar, China Horse, and Head of Plains havent sold. Kind of wondering if they differ on what they want to do with him. Logic says someone offers you 60 million with an additional 25, if he wins the TC, you take it. At 85 million that would be the highest priced sale of a horse ever. Even at 60 it is just shy at what Fusaichi Pegasus sold for. (Who turned out to be a total bust, his offspring got his "mean" side and nit not much ability. last year he was 7,5000 lol)
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  #159  
Old 05-26-18, 08:56 AM
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So WinStar owns Audible (3rd in the Derby, Pletcher trained). They will not run him in the Belmont. Didnt think he would win bc of distance limitations but they are totally ducking Justify, who they also own, to make the TC easier. Cant say I blame them, I would do the same, however some people are upset about this.

Noble Indy will be in the race it sounds like, which will put a little pressure on Justify. There just still isnt that much pace in the race and they will have to improve to beat Justify. Pace, as of right now, will set up perfectly for him. Main competition is closers which you dont want to be in this race.

Forget the stat but it was like 80% of the Belmont winners over the last 20 years were within 4 lengths of the lead at the half mile point, and 70% of winners were first or second at the half mile pole. Point being you dont want to be far out if it bc this race doesnt draw much speed. So a good play is to maybe bet a tracker to win or hit the board at a nice price. Hard to make up ground in that race.

He has a real shot in two weeks. Part of me thinks he has won the last two races in spite of it being on a sloppy surface. Some think it moved him up and made it easier but I dont see it that way. He has ran significantly faster on a dry/fast surface. He just might be that good bc he still has ran huge numbers on a wet track and i dont think that is his preferred surface. Big horses like him often have trouble moving/accelerating in the mud.
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  #160  
Old 05-26-18, 06:36 PM
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Out of those listed to run at this point, how many besides Justify have run the previous two races? Any others? I understand WinStar not putting Audible out there. There's a ton more money for them to gain by Justify winning the TC as compared to Audible winning. Not just in breeding but also on royalties from everything that comes with a TC winner.
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  #161  
Old 05-26-18, 10:37 PM
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Bravazo has ran in the first two.
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  #162  
Old 06-07-18, 10:49 AM
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Justify will be facing a big field compared to previous TC winners. He gets the 1 hole in a field of 10.
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  #163  
Old 06-08-18, 09:07 AM
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The Queen has one in the Belmont Gold Cup today.

6 Grade 1s
3 Grade 2s
And one ungraded stake (more like a Grade 3 field)

Card is loaded tomorrow. Best racing day of the year outside of the Breeders Cup
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  #164  
Old 06-08-18, 05:01 PM
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The Queen has one in the Belmont Gold Cup today.
New course record. After the win, they interviewed the Queens "Racing Manager".
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  #165  
Old 06-09-18, 08:45 AM
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I hear there is some racing going on today.
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  #166  
Old 06-09-18, 09:35 AM
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Anyone gambling today? If so i will post some of my picks so you know who bet against and make money unlike me
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  #167  
Old 06-09-18, 10:17 AM
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Betting house on Justify
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  #168  
Old 06-09-18, 10:32 AM
clarkgriswold clarkgriswold is offline
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Betting house on Justify
The winnings might get you a dollhouse.
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  #169  
Old 06-09-18, 10:35 AM
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It would get me another, albeit smaller, house to go with the one I have
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  #170  
Old 06-09-18, 10:38 AM
clarkgriswold clarkgriswold is offline
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Let me preface this by saying I have no freaking idea what I am talking about, but I think much of this race may be determined by what happens in the first 1/4 of a mile. If Justify can get out of the #1 and get towards the front with a pace that doesn't gas him, he could pull it off. Arrogate would know whether he's been bounced around before and how he reacted, but if he hasn't that could be an issue if there's some really physical jockeying for position.

My uneducated guess (from the guy who picked the horse that finished 20th in the Derby):
1) Vino Rosso with a late run
2) Justify
3) Hofburg
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  #171  
Old 06-09-18, 03:28 PM
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Originally Posted by clarkgriswold View Post
Let me preface this by saying I have no freaking idea what I am talking about, but I think much of this race may be determined by what happens in the first 1/4 of a mile. If Justify can get out of the #1 and get towards the front with a pace that doesn't gas him, he could pull it off. Arrogate would know whether he's been bounced around before and how he reacted, but if he hasn't that could be an issue if there's some really physical jockeying for position.

My uneducated guess (from the guy who picked the horse that finished 20th in the Derby):
1) Vino Rosso with a late run
2) Justify
3) Hofburg
Has never been bounced around, has faced little adversity during races. He certainly has faced plenty of adversity "off the track" (slight injury, unraced 2 year old, heavy work load)


I had one really nice hit today in the 6th race at 13-1, Still Having Fun. He was my big bet of the day

In the Met Mile I like Bee Jersey and Ransom the Moom but used others, they are my main plays. Super tough race, any horse can win.

Manhattan it probably runs through Browns horses the 1 and 10. I am somewhat against Hi Happy. If you want to beat those 3 horses Sadlers Joy, One Go All Go, and Spring Quality could pull off the upset

If Justify loses I think Vino Rosso, Hofburg, Tenfold will do it. Outside shot at Blended Citizen.

Gonna do a heat check here on the 8,10 in the Met Mile.
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  #172  
Old 06-09-18, 03:31 PM
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At this distance and long run into the first turn, wouldnt be too concerned about post position for Justify and i dont think he gets bumped around too hard. I think Smith sends him to the front. Main concern for him is pace and if he breaks cleanly. He has broken a tad slow in a couple of starts.

The fact he is even going for a Triple Crown is a testament to how talented he is. Enjoy this one, he is special.


Fwiw Baffert has entered two horses today and both won. One horse, Hoppertunity, won at a 1 1/2 miles, same distance as the Belmont Stakes
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  #173  
Old 06-09-18, 04:02 PM
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Bee Jersey wins by a nose!!!!

My nerves are killing me
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  #174  
Old 06-09-18, 05:56 PM
clarkgriswold clarkgriswold is offline
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Well done. Got him out front and never really had to push him hard. The slow early times with him out front were a good sign.
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  #175  
Old 06-09-18, 06:00 PM
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Looked like a great crowd there today. Interesting to see how many people seemed to be pulling for him to win the race.
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  #176  
Old 06-09-18, 06:01 PM
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The greatest of my lifetime. Words dont do him justice
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  #177  
Old 06-09-18, 06:02 PM
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Well done. Got him out front and never really had to push him hard. The slow early times with him out front were a good sign.
23 and change was pretty quick. Slowed it down after that
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  #178  
Old 06-09-18, 06:06 PM
clarkgriswold clarkgriswold is offline
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Did you catch Mike Smith's answer to Bob Costas on a question about how Justify was getting caught at the end of the Preakness. He just said something to the effect that he could have run him differently, subtly saying he could have kicked all of their @$$es if necessary!
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  #179  
Old 06-09-18, 06:09 PM
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23 and change was pretty quick. Slowed it down after that
Yep, but then seemed to slow him down and relax and get him a breather.
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  #180  
Old 06-09-18, 06:10 PM
clarkgriswold clarkgriswold is offline
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If it wasn't for the awful track at the Preakness, Justify could have gone unbathed for the entire Triple Crown!
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