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  #3211  
Old 07-18-18, 11:08 AM
wolves82 wolves82 is offline
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As for getting to 81-81... That means 38-28 the rest of the way. Doable if they continue hitting like they have the last 6 weeks. But you can only overcome bad starting pitching for so long.

As for being a buyer and going for 86/87 wins and the wild card... please wake up and smell the coffee. that would be 43-23 the rest of the way, or better. Be serious.
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  #3212  
Old 07-18-18, 12:08 PM
Indiandad Indiandad is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 14Red View Post
I hope the powers that be doesn't consider what the fan base feels as to how to construct a team.
You win, people come to games. It's really as simple as that. Fans will cheer a player for a career year, then bury them the next year if they go back to the stats on their baseball card. You simply can't run your team that way.
I did not mean "don't trade them because they are fan favorites", I meant by trading away the position players for prospects would signal 3-5 more years of losing 90+ games. The fan base will erode to nothing then.
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  #3213  
Old 07-18-18, 12:12 PM
Indiandad Indiandad is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wolves82 View Post
As for getting to 81-81... That means 38-28 the rest of the way. Doable if they continue hitting like they have the last 6 weeks. But you can only overcome bad starting pitching for so long.

As for being a buyer and going for 86/87 wins and the wild card... please wake up and smell the coffee. that would be 43-23 the rest of the way, or better. Be serious.
I was serious. Do the math.... if you feel this team as currently constructed can win 38 more games then getting 2 legit number 1's to replace two of the 5+ERA pitchers for 12-13 starts each should yield an additional 6-8 wins over those 2 pitchers.

However, I don't think 87 wins gets a WC.
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  #3214  
Old 07-18-18, 12:17 PM
Indiandad Indiandad is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 14Red View Post
My lineup in 2021 - based on players in our system today

1B Votto
2B Senzel
SS Peraza
3B Suarez
C Barnhart
LF India
CF Trammel
RF Winker

SP Mahle
SP Greene
SP Romano
SP ???
SP ???

It's really hard to project pitching. I just think this team will go get some mid level pitchers instead of developing.
So only guy that I suggested trading for a legit number 1 now is on your roster in 2021?

You replace that prospect and his POTENTIAL to be a number 1 with a legit number 1 to go with a really good offense and you get to win for the next 2 seasons as well as in 2021.


The Reds farm is incredibly deep. There are guys who will be big leaguers who are blocked at the big league level for years to come. That makes them expendable.
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  #3215  
Old 07-18-18, 12:19 PM
Indiandad Indiandad is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dale Cooper View Post
No team could tell you who their starting 8 will be in 3 years. Votto, Senzel, India, Trammel, Suarez is a good start. The staff would be Mahle, Castillo, Greene.
How many of these guys did I suggest trading and for who?
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  #3216  
Old 07-18-18, 12:57 PM
adselder09 adselder09 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Indiandad View Post
I was serious. Do the math.... if you feel this team as currently constructed can win 38 more games then getting 2 legit number 1's to replace two of the 5+ERA pitchers for 12-13 starts each should yield an additional 6-8 wins over those 2 pitchers.

However, I don't think 87 wins gets a WC.
Then why would they be buyers at the deadline? 38-28 isn't unreasonable when they're currently on a 36-25 run. I don't think we should expect 81-81, but that's where the team should aim to be.
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  #3217  
Old 07-18-18, 02:02 PM
Indiandad Indiandad is offline
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Originally Posted by adselder09 View Post
Then why would they be buyers at the deadline? 38-28 isn't unreasonable when they're currently on a 36-25 run. I don't think we should expect 81-81, but that's where the team should aim to be.
First, keep in mind the premise of we are NOT buying rentals but rather players with at least 2 years of control beyond this season.

1) Buy them now if they are available as they might not be available in the offseason.

2) The off chance that 87 is enough to get a WC, it would disappointing to miss out on the chance simply because you weren't prepared/aggressive in obtaining those players.

3) A run that keeps you in contention puts butts in the seats which generates the revenue to add payroll next season and beyond.


Number 1 should trump 2 and 3 however.
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  #3218  
Old 07-18-18, 02:48 PM
Indiandad Indiandad is offline
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Boston should be on the Reds speed dial.

Boston has made it very clear they are wanting a WS title this year. Boston GM Dave Dombrowski has said that the team is willing to go beyond the highest luxury tax threshold this year for the right situation. Boston also will be losing a lot of payroll this offseason so taking on longer term assets is a consideration. Furthermore, their biggest area of need is the bullpen to go along with Kimbrel (who is a FA at seasons end). This is their year and they'll do whatever it takes to get a championship.

Enter the Reds.... Raisel Iglesias and Homer Bailey (possibly some cash) for an extremely low level prospect.

Boston, which has a pathetically weak farm system can't really offer much for any legit bullpen piece but they can offer salary relief.

Iglesias has been good for the Reds but he is replaceable. The $38M saved this year and next could put the Reds in a very good position come this offseason.
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  #3219  
Old 07-18-18, 11:37 PM
brianwr112 brianwr112 is offline
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It's somewhat amazing that Indiandad still can't figure out Homer has no value to anyone when it comes to a trade. No organizations going to take on his contract for next year ($23M), the $5 million buyout for the following. Not to mention he takes up a spot on their 25-40 man rosters. The Red Sox aren't throwing away close to $55M on guys they don't plan to play. And they'd be down to a 24 man roster until September call ups. There's not a single scenario where a team picks up Homer's contract without the Reds actually paying it.

What position player(s) could the Reds trade that would appear to stunt the rebuild? I know you're under the impression the Reds can resign everyone to long term deals and every player wants to stay there. At the end of the day it's business.
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  #3220  
Old 07-19-18, 07:06 AM
Indiandad Indiandad is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by brianwr112 View Post
It's somewhat amazing that Indiandad still can't figure out Homer has no value to anyone when it comes to a trade. No organizations going to take on his contract for next year ($23M), the $5 million buyout for the following. Not to mention he takes up a spot on their 25-40 man rosters. The Red Sox aren't throwing away close to $55M on guys they don't plan to play. And they'd be down to a 24 man roster until September call ups. There's not a single scenario where a team picks up Homer's contract without the Reds actually paying it.

What position player(s) could the Reds trade that would appear to stunt the rebuild? I know you're under the impression the Reds can resign everyone to long term deals and every player wants to stay there. At the end of the day it's business.
Brad hand is owed ~$25M over the next 3 years still. Iglesias is better, just as long as control and cheaper. Iglesias would not require any real prospect, Brad Hand would require much more than the Red Sox have.
Iglesias is conservatively 20% more valuable than Hand.
Iglesias is owed ~$2M still this year plus ~$11M the next 2 (then one year of team control via arbitration)
That's $11M + ~$10M in arbitration for ~$21M. That's a $4M savings for Boston. The value of the prospect savings or in Boston's case simply not having enough valuable prospects to trade for a top reliever is ~$20M
Throw in the 20% premium and you're within a few million dollars of a deal.

The roster spot argument is just plain idiotic. Homer should be DFA by any team he is on.
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  #3221  
Old 07-19-18, 07:12 AM
Indiandad Indiandad is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by brianwr112 View Post

What position player(s) could the Reds trade that would appear to stunt the rebuild? I know you're under the impression the Reds can resign everyone to long term deals and every player wants to stay there. At the end of the day it's business.
The only ones that have any real trade value are the infielders and maybe Schebler.

Trading any of the others doesn't move the needle now or in the future. It just prolongs the rebuild.

The Reds don't need to sign anyone to a long term deal. The only one to consider would be Scooter.
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  #3222  
Old 07-19-18, 11:13 AM
wolves82 wolves82 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Indiandad View Post
Boston should be on the Reds speed dial.

Boston has made it very clear they are wanting a WS title this year. Boston GM Dave Dombrowski has said that the team is willing to go beyond the highest luxury tax threshold this year for the right situation. Boston also will be losing a lot of payroll this offseason so taking on longer term assets is a consideration. Furthermore, their biggest area of need is the bullpen to go along with Kimbrel (who is a FA at seasons end). This is their year and they'll do whatever it takes to get a championship.

Enter the Reds.... Raisel Iglesias and Homer Bailey (possibly some cash) for an extremely low level prospect.

Boston, which has a pathetically weak farm system can't really offer much for any legit bullpen piece but they can offer salary relief.

Iglesias has been good for the Reds but he is replaceable. The $38M saved this year and next could put the Reds in a very good position come this offseason.
I think the idea of trading Iglesias as a salary dump may be the silliest thing I ever heard. He is the best / most talented pitcher on the team, and under control at a reasonable price till 2021.

How does this fit into any plan? Especially your plan for being a buyer at the deadline, so we can possibly contend? Seems like 14Red has hacked your login, he is usually the king of self-contradiction.
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  #3223  
Old 07-19-18, 02:53 PM
Indiandad Indiandad is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wolves82 View Post
I think the idea of trading Iglesias as a salary dump may be the silliest thing I ever heard. He is the best / most talented pitcher on the team, and under control at a reasonable price till 2021.

How does this fit into any plan? Especially your plan for being a buyer at the deadline, so we can possibly contend? Seems like 14Red has hacked your login, he is usually the king of self-contradiction.
It's not a contradiction. This team needs "needle moving" moves. Standing pat and waiting for Sal Romano and others to become dominant is a recipe for disappointment.

The "closer" is the most overrated position in baseball. That spot can be filled with any of Lorenzen, Hughes, Hernandez, Stephenson (nasty slider can get 3 outs), Herget and probably a couple of others.

Freeing up nearly $25-$30M in payroll while adding "significant payroll" this offseason can be a major needle mover. After Arbitration raises next years payroll minus Bailey and Iglesias would be ~$80M. Assuming they are planning to increase payroll to $120M (a reasonable assumption) that would leave $40M to spend on the rotation. That doesn't include dumping Hamilton's salary.... another $8M.

You said yourself that this team is 2 legit starters away and they don't have the money to get those starters. This would open an Avenue towards that goal.
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  #3224  
Old 07-19-18, 03:12 PM
wolves82 wolves82 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Indiandad View Post
It's not a contradiction. This team needs "needle moving" moves. Standing pat and waiting for Sal Romano and others to become dominant is a recipe for disappointment.

The "closer" is the most overrated position in baseball. That spot can be filled with any of Lorenzen, Hughes, Hernandez, Stephenson (nasty slider can get 3 outs), Herget and probably a couple of others.

Freeing up nearly $25-$30M in payroll while adding "significant payroll" this offseason can be a major needle mover. After Arbitration raises next years payroll minus Bailey and Iglesias would be ~$80M. Assuming they are planning to increase payroll to $120M (a reasonable assumption) that would leave $40M to spend on the rotation. That doesn't include dumping Hamilton's salary.... another $8M.

You said yourself that this team is 2 legit starters away and they don't have the money to get those starters. This would open an Avenue towards that goal.
We agree about closer role being overrated. I've said a dozen times Iglesias has the stuff and the toolkit to be a top end starter and the Reds need to stretch him out for the rotation next year. He would be one of my 2 legit starters. We won't find a starter available with his capability at his price ($5M per year) .
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  #3225  
Old 07-19-18, 03:12 PM
adselder09 adselder09 is offline
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Why do they need to make "needle moving" moves? They should stand pat at this year's deadline unless they get an offer that completely blows them away. You seem to think they're much closer to contention than they really are.
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  #3226  
Old 07-19-18, 03:33 PM
Indiandad Indiandad is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wolves82 View Post
We agree about closer role being overrated. I've said a dozen times Iglesias has the stuff and the toolkit to be a top end starter and the Reds need to stretch him out for the rotation next year. He would be one of my 2 legit starters. We won't find a starter available with his capability at his price ($5M per year) .
They aren't going to use him in the rotation. The Reds have made that pretty clear.
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  #3227  
Old 07-19-18, 03:35 PM
Indiandad Indiandad is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by adselder09 View Post
Why do they need to make "needle moving" moves? They should stand pat at this year's deadline unless they get an offer that completely blows them away. You seem to think they're much closer to contention than they really are.
I would consider Iglesias and Bailey for a low level prospect an offer that blows them away.

This team is 2 top of the rotation starters away for 2019 and 2020.
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  #3228  
Old 07-19-18, 05:48 PM
brianwr112 brianwr112 is offline
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Indians just gave up the 15th ranked prospect in baseball for Hand. I'd think the Reds would want about the same return for Iglesias. Again, no team's taking on Homer's $30M+ he's still owed on his contract to simply DFA him.
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  #3229  
Old 07-19-18, 05:58 PM
Indiandad Indiandad is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by brianwr112 View Post
Indians just gave up the 15th ranked prospect in baseball for Hand. I'd think the Reds would want about the same return for Iglesias. Again, no team's taking on Homer's $30M+ he's still owed on his contract to simply DFA him.
Boston clearly does not have any prospect near that high (63 and 76) which is why you get creative and decrease prospect value for taking a bad contract.

Boston is in position to do just that.
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  #3230  
Old 07-19-18, 09:05 PM
brianwr112 brianwr112 is offline
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Boston's already eating a $10M contract. I doubt they want to bump that up to around $50M over the next two years. I'll give it to you though, you may be the only person in the world who thinks Homer's tradable, but you're sticking to that theory.
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  #3231  
Old 07-19-18, 09:33 PM
Indiandad Indiandad is offline
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Originally Posted by brianwr112 View Post
Boston's already eating a $10M contract. I doubt they want to bump that up to around $50M over the next two years. I'll give it to you though, you may be the only person in the world who thinks Homer's tradable, but you're sticking to that theory.
Think outside the box a little.

Look at what the Dodgers and Braves did last year, or the Spurs and Raptors just a couple of days ago.
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  #3232  
Old 07-20-18, 07:25 AM
Taco MacArthur Taco MacArthur is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Indiandad View Post
Think outside the box a little.

the Spurs and Raptors just a couple of days ago.
How did the Spurs and Raptors think outside the box? What they did was standard "inside the box" thinking. Spurs: Trade away a top 5-10 talent who doesn't want to be there, bring in another top 25 talent to keep them squarely in the playoff contention. Raptors: Embarrassed by getting swept - traded away their star who shrunk in the playoffs for 4 consecutive years for a significant upgrade to push them into Finals contention.
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  #3233  
Old 07-20-18, 07:29 AM
adselder09 adselder09 is offline
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Originally Posted by Indiandad View Post
I would consider Iglesias and Bailey for a low level prospect an offer that blows them away.

This team is 2 top of the rotation starters away for 2019 and 2020.
Away from what exactly? A WC spot or WS contention? They're playing better, but oddsare they still finish under .500 - they're not suddenly going to win 15+ more games next year. They're further away than that. Possibly they'll have pieces in place to make a run in 2020 and if so, that's when you go for it. Senzel should be up by then, maybe Greene, the core should still be intact.
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  #3234  
Old 07-20-18, 12:16 PM
Indiandad Indiandad is offline
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Originally Posted by adselder09 View Post
Away from what exactly? A WC spot or WS contention? They're playing better, but oddsare they still finish under .500 - they're not suddenly going to win 15+ more games next year. They're further away than that. Possibly they'll have pieces in place to make a run in 2020 and if so, that's when you go for it. Senzel should be up by then, maybe Greene, the core should still be intact.
They don't need Nick Senzel to be a WS contender. They need Bona Fide starting pitching.

Last year the Dodgers had the 6th best offense in the NL.
The Reds are currently 3rd and closing in on number 2 quickly. The everyday 8 is WS contention ready. They need starting pitching.
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  #3235  
Old 07-20-18, 12:17 PM
Indiandad Indiandad is offline
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Originally Posted by Taco MacArthur View Post
How did the Spurs and Raptors think outside the box? What they did was standard "inside the box" thinking. Spurs: Trade away a top 5-10 talent who doesn't want to be there, bring in another top 25 talent to keep them squarely in the playoff contention. Raptors: Embarrassed by getting swept - traded away their star who shrunk in the playoffs for 4 consecutive years for a significant upgrade to push them into Finals contention.
There was more to the trade than that.
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  #3236  
Old 07-20-18, 12:32 PM
adselder09 adselder09 is offline
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Saw a stat today I thought Vamps may like.


Joey Votto has popped up 7 times since 2010. Votto pop-ups by year:
2010 - 0
2011 - 1
2012 - 1
2013 - 1
2014 - 1
2015 - 2
2016 - 0
2017 - 1
2018 - 0
With the same amount of PA, the average MLB player would have popped up 127 times.
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  #3237  
Old 07-20-18, 12:53 PM
adselder09 adselder09 is offline
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Originally Posted by Indiandad View Post
There was more to the trade than that.
Like?
It was the Raptors realizing they weren't good enough as is - instead of going full rebuild they trade for a guy who likely walks at the end of the year - a rental. If it looks like they won't make the NBA Finals with him, they can trade him at the deadline to LA. Meanwhile SA gets rid of a cancer who doesn't want to be there while taking on a scoring wing who can lead them to wins/playoffs still, also avoiding full rebuild.
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  #3238  
Old 07-20-18, 01:01 PM
adselder09 adselder09 is offline
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Originally Posted by Indiandad View Post
They don't need Nick Senzel to be a WS contender. They need Bona Fide starting pitching.

Last year the Dodgers had the 6th best offense in the NL.
The Reds are currently 3rd and closing in on number 2 quickly. The everyday 8 is WS contention ready. They need starting pitching.
I disagree - 3-4 are WS contention ready, 1-2 are playoff contention ready and the other 2-3 spots are .500 ball players. They aren't 2 starting pitchers from WS contention, they're about 4 and some everyday 8 help.

Of the everyday 8 I'm sold on Votto, Suarez and Barnhart (moreso for his glove, his bat is decent). Would like to see more from the other guys before saying the Reds should go for it next year. If they get to 80 wins or more, they should try to get a solid #2 or #3 for someone else in FA to be their #1. If you're in contention in June next season then try to make a deal for a #1 with your prospects. If you're unable to make a deal - try for a homerun in FA and go for it in 2020.

As currently constituted the Reds are in no position to"go for it" next year. The worst thing they could do is false start on their window and set the rebuild back 5-more years.
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  #3239  
Old 07-20-18, 04:13 PM
Monclova Steve Monclova Steve is offline
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I appreciate the "thinking outside the box" as much as anyone. That's a great asset to have when trying to construct a trade.
However, any thought whatsoever that a major league GM is going to convince his owner to take over Bailey's contract -- no matter what the rest of the "creative deal might be -- is ludicrous.

We're stuck with him. He's an awful pitcher with an awful (from the Reds' point of view) contract. We owe the money whether he pitches or not, so why should we keep pitching him instead of giving innings to the young guys.;
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  #3240  
Old 07-20-18, 07:18 PM
Taco MacArthur Taco MacArthur is offline
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Originally Posted by Indiandad View Post
There was more to the trade than that.
A few other pieces to get salaries to match? Sure, but what I posted was the general gist of the trade. So I'll ask a second time, how were they thinking outside the box?
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