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  #1  
Old 10-22-17, 07:16 PM
OVTC OVTC is offline
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Ohio Regional Boys Div 1 at Troy Prediction

St. X 57
Mason 65
Centerville 102
Carroll 151
Elder 169
Springboro 238
Lebanon 253
Butler 261
Kings 261
Turpin 270
Lak East 276
Anderson 295
Beavercreek 301
Miamisburg 318
Lak West 336
Fairmont 371
Northmont 415
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  #2  
Old 10-22-17, 08:51 PM
xcrunner69 xcrunner69 is offline
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Mason keeps on progressing as the season goes on. Wouldn't be surprised if they pulled the "upset" over St. X to win the Region.
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  #3  
Old 10-22-17, 09:37 PM
LitOnFriday LitOnFriday is offline
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Mason and St. X will just blow the field away. I could see either winning by a few points. Centerville will easily make it as well. The last 2 spots will be between Carroll, Elder, Springboro, Turpin, Kings, Lebanon. Kings and Springboro I'm especially impressed by how much they've improved versus the start of the year. Will make for an interesting race!
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  #4  
Old 10-22-17, 10:01 PM
ccalum ccalum is offline
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Mason and St.X will advance barring a bus breakdown or flu epidemic. Centerville should advance if they run OK. I'll take Kings narrowly over Carroll for the fourth and fifth spots. Teams 6-10 (most of them mentioned by LitOnFriday) could swoop in if Kings or Carroll struggle.

Last edited by ccalum; 10-22-17 at 10:16 PM..
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  #5  
Old 10-23-17, 06:37 AM
EuclidandViren EuclidandViren is offline
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I don't see Elder making it out. Unsure if you strictly on times or not.

Every year there is debate on the VOA v Dayton district times. Usually it is 15-20 second difference. I haven't looked at the data this year compared to previous years but Elder ahead of Springboro and Kings?

I'd be surprised if that holds true.

Just looked at some data.

Additionally, how come Butler is so high? They barely made it out of the Cedarville district?

I would also put Centerville about 30 points closer to Mason and St. Centerville has beaten Mason this year without their #1 runner. I would actually put Centerville for the upset before I would put Mason for the upset. Mason is trending right now, but Centerville has more big race experience this year and with their entire team coming back from last year. I think the 30-50 points has something to do with the skewed data points from your time comparisons.
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  #6  
Old 10-23-17, 07:52 AM
runner12345 runner12345 is offline
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Elder and Kings both ran at VOA. Kings ran better. Compared to Springboro and Carroll at Cedarville, I'm going with:

st. X
Centerville
Mason
Carroll
Kings
Springboro
Elder

Kings and Carroll will be close, but Carroll has stronger 1-2 runners which will help more at regionals.
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  #7  
Old 10-23-17, 08:15 AM
SOTT SOTT is offline
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Without following either of the teams all that closely, I feel Mason is a much better team than Centerville. They are trending, they have "been there done that," and Centerville boys seem to struggle at the end of the year. That's not to say Centerville can't beat them, but I'd be pretty surprised.
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  #8  
Old 10-23-17, 08:19 AM
Running Man 101 Running Man 101 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by EuclidandViren View Post
I don't see Elder making it out. Unsure if you strictly on times or not.

Every year there is debate on the VOA v Dayton district times. Usually it is 15-20 second difference. I haven't looked at the data this year compared to previous years but Elder ahead of Springboro and Kings?

I'd be surprised if that holds true.

Just looked at some data.

Additionally, how come Butler is so high? They barely made it out of the Cedarville district?

I would also put Centerville about 30 points closer to Mason and St. Centerville has beaten Mason this year without their #1 runner. I would actually put Centerville for the upset before I would put Mason for the upset. Mason is trending right now, but Centerville has more big race experience this year and with their entire team coming back from last year. I think the 30-50 points has something to do with the skewed data points from your time comparisons.
Mason boys are going to open some eyes in the post-season. Imagine they might have the best boys team in the state two weeks from now.
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  #9  
Old 10-23-17, 08:24 AM
EuclidandViren EuclidandViren is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Running Man 101 View Post
Mason boys are going to open some eyes in the post-season. Imagine they might have the best boys team in the state two weeks from now.
100% agree with you.

I would say the same thing about Centerville boys. Centerville has run all year without their #1 runner. He was back at GWOC and ran over 18:00's. This past week he improved to under 17:00. I believe he will regain his sub 16:00 form by state. Which could give Centerville and Mason and St. X a great 3 team race at Regional and State.
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  #10  
Old 10-23-17, 08:58 AM
LitOnFriday LitOnFriday is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by EuclidandViren View Post
100% agree with you.

I would say the same thing about Centerville boys. Centerville has run all year without their #1 runner. He was back at GWOC and ran over 18:00's. This past week he improved to under 17:00. I believe he will regain his sub 16:00 form by state. Which could give Centerville and Mason and St. X a great 3 team race at Regional and State.
Anyone know why he was out? Everyone knew Centerville was going to be good but without their #1 returner from last year they definitely weren't as good as expected this season. That being said, if he can get back to sub-16 shape this State title could go three ways.

For the other 2 qualifiers out of Troy it could go to any of the other 6 teams. I wouldn't be surprised if Turpin or Elder made it. Looks like Elder's usual #1 wasn't on par at VOA and they also need a stronger 5th man. Tupin has had an impressive pack the entire season that seems to just be getting better.
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  #11  
Old 10-23-17, 09:08 AM
OhioXC17 OhioXC17 is offline
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I noticed St. Xís #2 hasnít ran the past couple of weeks. Any word on him?
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  #12  
Old 10-23-17, 09:30 AM
EuclidandViren EuclidandViren is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LitOnFriday View Post
For the other 2 qualifiers out of Troy it could go to any of the other 6 teams. I wouldn't be surprised if Turpin or Elder made it. Looks like Elder's usual #1 wasn't on par at VOA and they also need a stronger 5th man. Tupin has had an impressive pack the entire season that seems to just be getting better.
I don't see Turpin and Elder in the mix. More like 7-10 range. They both have nice teams. But on paper mathematically they both will struggle to have 1-2 guys under 17:00 at the regional course. The regional course is a good 15-25 seconds slower than VOA.

I see the top 3 teams under 80-90 point range. The #4 team should be Carroll in 140 range.

I would argue that the #4 and #5 teams both need to have at least 3 guys if not a 4 runner under 17:00. I give the clear #4 spot to Carroll. Unless Carroll totally chokes because they are new to D1. Which is prone to happen to smaller schools on the large stage.

The #5 spot would go to the team that doesn't choke and has a #5 under 17:20 range for the regional race.

That #5 team could score over 200 points this year. And even as far back as 220 points in my opinion. But I could totally be wrong.
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  #13  
Old 10-23-17, 09:41 AM
runner12345 runner12345 is offline
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Not sure of any weather differences between the races but Mason did run much better than st. X at VoA
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  #14  
Old 10-23-17, 09:53 AM
fanofrunning fanofrunning is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by OhioXC17 View Post
I noticed St. Xís #2 hasnít ran the past couple of weeks. Any word on him?
Saw him in a boot at the league meet. Do not know any more.
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  #15  
Old 10-23-17, 11:10 AM
beeman beeman is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by EuclidandViren View Post
I don't see Turpin and Elder in the mix. More like 7-10 range. They both have nice teams. But on paper mathematically they both will struggle to have 1-2 guys under 17:00 at the regional course. The regional course is a good 15-25 seconds slower than VOA.

I see the top 3 teams under 80-90 point range. The #4 team should be Carroll in 140 range.

I would argue that the #4 and #5 teams both need to have at least 3 guys if not a 4 runner under 17:00. I give the clear #4 spot to Carroll. Unless Carroll totally chokes because they are new to D1. Which is prone to happen to smaller schools on the large stage.

The #5 spot would go to the team that doesn't choke and has a #5 under 17:20 range for the regional race.

That #5 team could score over 200 points this year. And even as far back as 220 points in my opinion. But I could totally be wrong.
I believe the Troy Invitational meet is held on the same course as the Regional. FWIW; here is Elder's Top 5 times from the Invitational that they won on Sept. 9th. Looks like their #1 runner didn't race that day either. http://oh.milesplit.com/meets/288189...d#.We4Ts1tSyiR

16:40, 16:41, 16:48, 17:11, 17:11
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  #16  
Old 10-23-17, 11:50 AM
EuclidandViren EuclidandViren is offline
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Times mean nothing. I would take those times and add 20+ seconds because the Regional will be windy and a little mushy compared to September at Troy.

I go head to head. Here is the data from head to head this year.

Springboro beat Turpin head to head at the Moeller invite. Springboro has gotten tremendously better. Turpin beat Elder this past week.

Beavercreek the #6 team from Dayton beat Turpin at Trinity and Kings at the Fairmont invite head to head. I would argue that depth Dayton destroys Cincinnati this year not only with the girls but also the boys. The girls side Dayton will take 5 of the top 7. With only Ursuline and Mason making it out from Cincinnati. On the boys side I would argue that only St. X and Mason have a shot at making it out and that Dayton will take 6 of the top 8 spots.
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  #17  
Old 10-23-17, 12:14 PM
Rohbino Rohbino is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by EuclidandViren View Post
Times mean nothing. I would take those times and add 20+ seconds because the Regional will be windy and a little mushy compared to September at Troy.
Your supposition of slower times is faulty. It probably will be windier and the course might be a bit softer but I would think that the times should be faster this Saturday compared to early in September. That was almost 2 months ago. If the times aren't faster this Saturday, the coach is not doing a good job at peaking/tapering his runners.
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  #18  
Old 10-23-17, 12:15 PM
runner12345 runner12345 is offline
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Comparing the 2 district meets on milesplit show similar average times for top 100 runners, and knowing VoA is faster, that itself shows the strength of the Cedarville district.
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  #19  
Old 10-23-17, 12:19 PM
SOCCERCOACH1 SOCCERCOACH1 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by fanofrunning View Post
Saw him in a boot at the league meet. Do not know any more.
St. X's #2, MH, is unfortunately shut down for the year. Big loss having to replace one of your top runners at this time of the season. Based on this and the times Mason put up at Districts - makes them the favorite for the Regionals IMO.
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  #20  
Old 10-23-17, 12:50 PM
EuclidandViren EuclidandViren is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rohbino View Post
Your supposition of slower times is faulty. It probably will be windier and the course might be a bit softer but I would think that the times should be faster this Saturday compared to early in September. That was almost 2 months ago. If the times aren't faster this Saturday, the coach is not doing a good job at peaking/tapering his runners.
Not true at all. Troy regional is rarely faster than the regular season.

Do your research and look at data. Rarely do kids run PR's at the regional race. Yes there are some instances, but not historically.

Look outside right now. Rain. Rain Rain.

Look at the weather conditions we had in early September in Ohio this year--50's and 60's most weekends with little humidity. The ground was hard and fast and the grass was cut short. Troy will not cut the grass short this weekend.

Blaming it on the coach is naive.
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  #21  
Old 10-23-17, 12:55 PM
EuclidandViren EuclidandViren is offline
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Check out the weather for Saturday in Troy Ohio.

Rain/Snow mix with a high of 41.

No one will PR and everyone is slower and all coaches stink.
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  #22  
Old 10-23-17, 01:01 PM
ccrunner609 ccrunner609 is offline
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^^^LOL.

Actually if the ground is firm and the wind is down......Troy will run fast.
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  #23  
Old 10-23-17, 02:00 PM
Rohbino Rohbino is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by EuclidandViren View Post
Not true at all. Troy regional is rarely faster than the regular season.

Do your research and look at data. Rarely do kids run PR's at the regional race. Yes there are some instances, but not historically.

Look outside right now. Rain. Rain Rain.

Look at the weather conditions we had in early September in Ohio this year--50's and 60's most weekends with little humidity. The ground was hard and fast and the grass was cut short. Troy will not cut the grass short this weekend.

Blaming it on the coach is naive.
Who said anything about PRs? Did I mention PRs? You're the only one mentioning PRs.
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  #24  
Old 10-24-17, 05:31 AM
Seek Up Seek Up is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ccrunner609 View Post
^^^LOL.

Actually if the ground is firm and the wind is down......Troy will run fast.
Good one....lol!
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  #25  
Old 10-24-17, 08:00 AM
Running Man 101 Running Man 101 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rohbino View Post
Your supposition of slower times is faulty. It probably will be windier and the course might be a bit softer but I would think that the times should be faster this Saturday compared to early in September. That was almost 2 months ago. If the times aren't faster this Saturday, the coach is not doing a good job at peaking/tapering his runners.
The conditions at Troy in September were near ideal. We ran there and just about everybody that ran had a PR, some big.

My kids are definitely faster now, so we'll see. The weather is always the wild card--really the wind.
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  #26  
Old 10-28-17, 07:20 PM
runner12345 runner12345 is offline
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Lebanon ran very well
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  #27  
Old 10-28-17, 08:40 PM
ccrunner609 ccrunner609 is offline
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Originally Posted by Seek Up View Post
Good one....lol!
? It wasn't windy.
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  #28  
Old 10-29-17, 04:44 AM
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Lancermania Lancermania is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by EuclidandViren View Post
I would argue that only St. X and Mason have a shot at making it out and that Dayton will take 6 of the top 8 spots.
What happened? Kings made it out and Cincy teams took four of the top eight spots.
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  #29  
Old 10-29-17, 03:42 PM
Seek Up Seek Up is offline
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? It wasn't windy.
I made my comment based on conditions I have experienced over the last 30+ years. It was not very windy at all, but that's rarely the case.
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  #30  
Old 10-29-17, 07:55 PM
ccrunner609 ccrunner609 is offline
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Originally Posted by Seek Up View Post
I made my comment based on conditions I have experienced over the last 30+ years. It was not very windy at all, but that's rarely the case.
agreed. Troy weather was decent.
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