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  #1  
Old 10-21-17, 07:23 PM
madman madman is offline
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Boardman Regional

I'm not going to attempt to do this for any race other than D1 boys, but here is my prediction for the teams who qualified today:

1 Hudson 56
2 Medina 108
3 St. Ignatius 149
4 Massillon Jackson 170
5 Kenston 192
6 Mentor 229.5
7 St. Edward 236
8 Solon 258
9 Strongsville 267
10 Brecksville-Broadview Heights 275
11 Cuyahoga Falls 349
12 GlenOak 360
13 Chardon 376
14 Lake-Uniontown 379
15 Wadsworth 381
16 Walsh Jesuit 418
17 University School 442
18 Hoover 460
19 Avon Lake 465
20 Avon 468
21 Madison 530
22 Mayfield 537
23 Geneva 579

At the front end, I am amazed at the depth of the teams.

I think 7 teams get out of Boardman to State this year. Solon doesn't make it according to my list above, but my gut says they will find a way.
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  #2  
Old 10-21-17, 10:13 PM
SOTT SOTT is offline
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Girls D1

I'll do girls D1 since I'm most familiar with that landscape.

I am a closet numbers guy who loves analyzing the data from the races, comparing times to recent courses and adjusting courses to match each other to the best of my ability...but then my "artistic" side takes over and I re-adjust here and there based on trends, program history, the way teams typically trend at the end of the year, number of upperclassmen vs underclassmen, coaching strengths, etc. So, having said all that: this is a very inexact "science" even though I start off my own behind the scenes analysis with formulaic dickering.

1. Hudson -- 102 points: I think they have to be put number one after their body of work and the way they demolished the field at their district. While it seems Trumbull County Fairground ran quite fast today, they still have an impressive 1-4 with a not-so-large gap back to 5-7. They are solid all the way around. They don't have a bonafide stud like a few other teams, but at the regional I don't think it will hurt them nearly enough to warrant predicting another team in front of them. They didn't run particularly well at the regional meet last year but I think some things have changed over there and expect them to be much better prepared.

2. Medina -- 129 points: This team has had a "problem" at 4 and 5 for the past month or so but it seems they solidified that a bit this weekend. If they want to contend with Hudson their four and five will have to have an ever bigger day than they did at the district and I don't see that happening to a great enough extent, at least not this week. Their advantage lies at the #1 position with the stud Keller. She should be in the hunt for a top 3 finish, which means a top 2 team place finish with Solon not qualifying as a team and Howell the heavy favorite. They have been very solid the last three years with three consecutive top 10 finishes at the state meet.

3. Shaker Heights -- 149 points: This is a team that constantly flies under the radar but shows up and surprises a lot of people at the end of the season every year it seems. They are well coached and have built a solid cross country and track program. They won a close conference meet last weekend over Medina and were only a handful of points off of them at the district. They, too, have a genuine stud in Carrier and she is probably the favorite for the runner-up position behind Howell as she has beaten Keller two weeks in a row. If their 5th runner has a better race they could easily find themselves in 2nd.

4. Highland -- 160 points: This is an incredibly talented squad that has been running well all season. Two weeks ago they laid the wood to Medina at the Medina Cross Country Festival and Medina only beat them on a tie-breaker this week. They have a stud at #1 in Kenne and a very solid 2-3. They fall off hard after #5 and that is a bit scary. If someone doesn't have a good day they are in a bit of trouble. Four of their top 7 are freshman and I tend to believe that freshman have a hard time sustaining great performances all season long, especially in a program that is in the process of taking a big leap forward. I wouldn't be surprised to see them in second or third but put them at fourth for the aforementioned reason.

5. Brunswick -- 180 points: This is a team that unfortunately is without their #1 runner, Pasadyn, otherwise they would be challenging Hudson at the top. Even with that in mind they are still a good team and possibly the best coached of any team at this regional. Time and again Coach Hunter has his team ready to go when it matters most and I don't think that will be any different this year. Their 1-3 are quite good and their 4-5 had solid races at the district. They, too, have a depth problem but being that they are an established program I have confidence that they will rise to the occasion.

6. St. Joe's -- 230 points: Could there really be 5 teams in a row from the Medina district, taking spots 2-6 here? It seems implausible, but when you look at the depth of the Medina district compared to the others, maybe it's not that crazy of an idea after all. This is a team that has been very, very quiet all season long but seems to be getting healthy and hitting their stride (pun intended) at the right time. They, too, are coached well by Coach Kieser and that is evidenced by how well they ran at the district. Their 1-2 punch is better than just about anyone else's. Their 3-5 are closely packed and their 6-7 aren't terribly far back either.

7. Nordonia -- 269 points: Here's my upset pick. Stow could be here. Twinsburg could be here. Perry could be here. Jackson could be here. But when I look at all those teams and ask myself who is both trending in the right direction and who is the best coached, I have to go with Nordonia. The Glenoak district was weaker than I thought and while Perry has impressed the last couple weeks, I wonder if they are due for a bit of a backward slide. Maybe they will prove me wrong: more power to them. I just get a sense that coach Martin will have his girls ready to go after that confidence booster of a district performance. It should be interesting however it plays out.

8. Twinsburg -- 275 points
9. Perry -- 290 points
10. Stow -- 309 points

One thing that really makes me pause and wonder when looking at my predictions is that all seven teams are from two districts with five of those seven from one district. I think the Medina district was just that much deeper than all the other districts with Trumbull County a distant 2nd.

The forecast is currently calling for wetter conditions this week and if that is the case all bets are off! Adverse conditions is one of the great equalizers! Here's to some cross country weather!

What a great time of year. Let's enjoy the ride.

Cheers.
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  #3  
Old 10-22-17, 02:22 AM
cvctrackfan cvctrackfan is offline
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Outstanding job you two
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  #4  
Old 10-23-17, 03:14 AM
cvctrackfan cvctrackfan is offline
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Boy’s D2

1. Rocky River 17-0 against the field. Very strong up front with Zuercher and Robinette top ten finishers. Their strong point is it’s hard to account for their depth at 4 thru 6. They always have a runner you can’t match up with. You have to hope for a bad race from them.

2. Woodridge This team has a good of a top two as ant D2 team. Also they are peaking at just the right time. I’m picking them to finish in the top two for the next two weekends,

3. Bay, have been over shadowed by RR all season. They are young, but match up well with any team not named Rocky River or Woodridge.

4.NDCL there is nothing flashy about the Lions. They lack star power up front. But, have had a great pack one thru four all year. They have little room for error this weekend due to a fragile number five and no depth.

5. St Vincent St Mary with Phillips having a solid year. SVSM should be able to finish top five here. They are trending upward right now

6. Jefferson I’m really impressed with what their coaching staff has accomplished this fall with the boy’s and last spring with the girls.

7AB Poland and Salem this ones too close to call

9. Fairview I would be surprised if they advanced
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  #5  
Old 10-23-17, 11:30 AM
peebles peebles is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cvctrackfan View Post
Boy’s D2

1. Rocky River 17-0 against the field. Very strong up front with Zuercher and Robinette top ten finishers. Their strong point is it’s hard to account for their depth at 4 thru 6. They always have a runner you can’t match up with. You have to hope for a bad race from them.

2. Woodridge This team has a good of a top two as ant D2 team. Also they are peaking at just the right time. I’m picking them to finish in the top two for the next two weekends,

3. Bay, have been over shadowed by RR all season. They are young, but match up well with any team not named Rocky River or Woodridge.

4.NDCL there is nothing flashy about the Lions. They lack star power up front. But, have had a great pack one thru four all year. They have little room for error this weekend due to a fragile number five and no depth.

5. St Vincent St Mary with Phillips having a solid year. SVSM should be able to finish top five here. They are trending upward right now

6. Jefferson I’m really impressed with what their coaching staff has accomplished this fall with the boy’s and last spring with the girls.

7AB Poland and Salem this ones too close to call

9. Fairview I would be surprised if they advanced
Garrettsville Garfield should get a mention here. Their total time was over a minute faster than Salem and Poland. They weren't even on my radar as a Trumbull favorite (my fault for not seeing that), and they dominated the race. Lake Catholic could also be in the mix.

Last edited by peebles; 10-23-17 at 11:51 AM..
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  #6  
Old 10-23-17, 11:44 AM
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Originally Posted by peebles View Post
Garrettsville Garfield should get a mention here. Their total time was over a minute faster than Salem and Poland. They weren't even on my radar as a Trumbull favorite (my fault for not seeing that), and they dominated the race.
I don't know that any of the teams from Trumbull will qualify, but I would agree that Garfield has the best chance. Klouda will post a very small number in this big field. Neither Poland nor Salem will have that going for them, and Salem's 4th and 5th and Poland's 5th have to do much better than they did at districts.
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  #7  
Old 10-23-17, 11:53 AM
billrodgers billrodgers is offline
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How is boys D3 going to shake out?
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  #8  
Old 10-23-17, 11:54 AM
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How is boys D3 going to shake out?
4 teams and 16 individuals will qualify.
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  #9  
Old 10-23-17, 11:57 AM
billrodgers billrodgers is offline
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East Canton Big winner margin?
McDonald?
Maplewood?
Gilmour Academy?

Boys Teams
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Old 10-23-17, 12:07 PM
peebles peebles is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by billrodgers View Post
East Canton Big winner margin?
McDonald?
Maplewood?
Gilmour Academy?

Boys Teams
East Canton looks like the favorite (I won't venture to guess a victory margin), with perennial powers McDonald and Maplewood battling for number two. Gilmour looks like the last qualifier according to district results from last week.
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  #11  
Old 10-23-17, 12:16 PM
psycho_dad psycho_dad is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cvctrackfan View Post
Boyís D2

1. Rocky River 17-0 against the field. Very strong up front with Zuercher and Robinette top ten finishers. Their strong point is itís hard to account for their depth at 4 thru 6. They always have a runner you canít match up with. You have to hope for a bad race from them.

2. Woodridge This team has a good of a top two as ant D2 team. Also they are peaking at just the right time. Iím picking them to finish in the top two for the next two weekends,

3. Bay, have been over shadowed by RR all season. They are young, but match up well with any team not named Rocky River or Woodridge.

4.NDCL there is nothing flashy about the Lions. They lack star power up front. But, have had a great pack one thru four all year. They have little room for error this weekend due to a fragile number five and no depth.

5. St Vincent St Mary with Phillips having a solid year. SVSM should be able to finish top five here. They are trending upward right now

6. Jefferson Iím really impressed with what their coaching staff has accomplished this fall with the boyís and last spring with the girls.

7AB Poland and Salem this ones too close to call

9. Fairview I would be surprised if they advanced
Top 5 is solid, but $V$M is most likely better than you have them. After RR, anything could happen.

But your 6-9 is way off.
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Old 10-23-17, 12:51 PM
billcarson billcarson is offline
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Originally Posted by psycho_dad View Post
Top 5 is solid, but $V$M is most likely better than you have them. After RR, anything could happen.

But your 6-9 is way off.
I would place them;
1. Rocky River, after Lexington got beat by Shelby, they are tops
2. Woodridge, the only one still with a shot.
3. St. Vincent, may be a little better than Bay & NDCL up front, should be close
4. NDCL, or Bay, they have the same type of teams, maybe a tie
5. Bay, should still be well clear of anyone else.
6. Garfield, could be several others
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Old 10-24-17, 12:33 PM
psycho_dad psycho_dad is offline
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Garfield: is scoring 4 vs 5 against the rest of the contenders for the last spot and their 5th seems as good as any of the other 5's. (My heart pick. Just like the people)

Lake Catholic: looks to have the next best team. Is their 1-2 better than Jefferson's 1-2 more than Jefferson's 3-4 is better than Lake Catholic's? Equal at 5.

Jefferson: Starting back pretty far at 1-2 scoring.

Fairview: Pretty big 5 problem.

Triway: Bigger 5 problem.

Tuslaw: Even Bigger 5 problem

Hawken: man for man has less to do to match up close to Garfield.

Poland: starts scoring too far back and has 5 problem.

Salem: 4 and 5 problem.

South Range: (Throw a blanket over Hawken, Poland, Salem and South Range)

Orange, Perry: Just Blah

Coventry, Fairless: 1,2,3,4,5 problems
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Old 10-24-17, 12:37 PM
SteveMiles SteveMiles is offline
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How do the different courses that feed into Boardman compare to each other?

Looking at Rocky River and Woodridge, both of them have a 5-man rather far back at their District Meet. (17:30s, 17:40s) I'm not sure how much that will matter as they are so good up front and both will easily advance to state and Rocky River is one of the favorites to win it all.
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  #15  
Old 10-24-17, 12:51 PM
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Originally Posted by SteveMiles View Post
How do the different courses that feed into Boardman compare to each other?

Looking at Rocky River and Woodridge, both of them have a 5-man rather far back at their District Meet. (17:30s, 17:40s) I'm not sure how much that will matter as they are so good up front and both will easily advance to state and Rocky River is one of the favorites to win it all.
GlenOak's ground was rock solid with thin cloud cover, and the course has a net elevation loss from start to finish. There are some long gradual uphill climbs from the south to north, but the big key is whether or not the sun is shining. The course lacks shade, so it can be brutal in hot sunny weather. I'd be surprised if kids coming in from GlenOak run faster at Boardman; especially with the way the weather has turned to start this week.

Trumbull is flat like most fairgrounds I've ever been to, but I can't speak about if last weekend's conditions were conducive to fast running. I've seen that course when it's muddy, but I don't how that course is when it's warm like it was on Saturday.

I've never been to the other 2 DII sites.

Rocky River's 4th spot makes them hard to handle. #5 isn't too shabby either.
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Old 10-24-17, 08:27 PM
psycho_dad psycho_dad is offline
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D2 girls should be,

Chagrin Falls by a landslide. They are the odds on favorite to win the state IMO.

$V$M: Solid 1-7

Hawken: #5 is going to kill them

Woodridge: Getting better every week.

Edgewood: Could be 2-5

Cloverleaf, Beaumont, CVCA and Padua. Unfortunately Injury will keep the 3 privates from moving on and Cloverleaf is solid, but not quite enough to take the 5th spot unless one of the other teams slotted for those spots has a stinker.

Marlington: 5 will kill them as well.
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Old 10-24-17, 11:53 PM
KevinL KevinL is offline
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Originally Posted by psycho_dad View Post
D2 girls should be,

Chagrin Falls by a landslide. They are the odds on favorite to win the state IMO.

$V$M: Solid 1-7

Hawken: #5 is going to kill them

Woodridge: Getting better every week.

Edgewood: Could be 2-5

Cloverleaf, Beaumont, CVCA and Padua. Unfortunately Injury will keep the 3 privates from moving on and Cloverleaf is solid, but not quite enough to take the 5th spot unless one of the other teams slotted for those spots has a stinker.

Marlington: 5 will kill them as well.
http://www.baumspage.com/cc/reg/youn...structions.pdf

6 D2 girls teams from Boardman to State. Individuals in the top 24.
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Old 10-25-17, 05:37 AM
psycho_dad psycho_dad is offline
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yeah, wow, I worded that horribly. The Group with Cloverleaf, Beaumont, CVCA and Padua would be fighting it out for that 6th and final spot with Cloverleaf earning it. I don't see Cloverleaf finishing higher than that. The top 5 are sort of safe so it's the rest of the teams fighting it out for one spot. I edited some stuff before posting to make it less wordy and I edited the meaning right out. Why I was a B student and not an A.
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Old 10-25-17, 05:54 AM
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Originally Posted by psycho_dad View Post

Chagrin Falls by a landslide. They are the odds on favorite to win the state IMO.
Does Lexington have someone injured? Earlier this year I would have said that Lexington was the team to beat but Chagrin Falls has come on strong and Lexington seems to be missing a 5th.
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Old 10-25-17, 05:37 PM
KevinL KevinL is offline
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Originally Posted by psycho_dad View Post
yeah, wow, I worded that horribly. The Group with Cloverleaf, Beaumont, CVCA and Padua would be fighting it out for that 6th and final spot with Cloverleaf earning it. I don't see Cloverleaf finishing higher than that. The top 5 are sort of safe so it's the rest of the teams fighting it out for one spot. I edited some stuff before posting to make it less wordy and I edited the meaning right out. Why I was a B student and not an A.
I knew you knew. I even read it a couple times to try to figure out what you meant ... but yeah if you cut some stuff after writing that explains it. Good luck to your girls and all LCCC representatives!
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  #21  
Old 10-28-17, 03:19 PM
CoventryTrackXCguy CoventryTrackXCguy is offline
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darn, I was really hoping we might get our 1 to hebron this year. He wasn't that far off, but, nonetheless he had a nice senior season. I'll take it. We have had three different individuals running like that over the last 3 years. I will have to figure out how we can get more individuals running like that...in the same season.
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Old 10-28-17, 04:09 PM
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Hawken threw in a new number 5 runner at the Regional. 58 is a lot better than 104. So now, they do not have a 5 problem. Chagrin Falls girls looked over raced.

Woodridge boys crept a little closer, but Rocky River looks good.

Coventry finished one place higher than I thought they would.
Hope Garfield's coach had a nice vacation.
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Old 10-28-17, 04:11 PM
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Over raced, good thing they skipped their league meet or they might not of finished in the top 6.
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Old 10-28-17, 04:15 PM
psycho_dad psycho_dad is offline
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Right? Racing two weeks in a row like that is just too much.
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Old 10-28-17, 05:42 PM
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Hawken's number 5 was their number 3 at the invitational who has sat out the last 3 meets.
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Old 10-28-17, 08:08 PM
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I'm not going to attempt to do this for any race other than D1 boys, but here is my prediction for the teams who qualified today:

1 Hudson 56
2 Medina 108
3 St. Ignatius 149
4 Massillon Jackson 170
5 Kenston 192
6 Mentor 229.5
7 St. Edward 236
8 Solon 258
9 Strongsville 267
10 Brecksville-Broadview Heights 275
11 Cuyahoga Falls 349
12 GlenOak 360
13 Chardon 376
14 Lake-Uniontown 379
15 Wadsworth 381
16 Walsh Jesuit 418
17 University School 442
18 Hoover 460
19 Avon Lake 465
20 Avon 468
21 Madison 530
22 Mayfield 537
23 Geneva 579

At the front end, I am amazed at the depth of the teams.

I think 7 teams get out of Boardman to State this year. Solon doesn't make it according to my list above, but my gut says they will find a way.
Nice work in getting the 7 teams that made state correct!
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Old 10-28-17, 08:12 PM
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I'll do girls D1 since I'm most familiar with that landscape.

I am a closet numbers guy who loves analyzing the data from the races, comparing times to recent courses and adjusting courses to match each other to the best of my ability...but then my "artistic" side takes over and I re-adjust here and there based on trends, program history, the way teams typically trend at the end of the year, number of upperclassmen vs underclassmen, coaching strengths, etc. So, having said all that: this is a very inexact "science" even though I start off my own behind the scenes analysis with formulaic dickering.

1. Hudson -- 102 points: I think they have to be put number one after their body of work and the way they demolished the field at their district. While it seems Trumbull County Fairground ran quite fast today, they still have an impressive 1-4 with a not-so-large gap back to 5-7. They are solid all the way around. They don't have a bonafide stud like a few other teams, but at the regional I don't think it will hurt them nearly enough to warrant predicting another team in front of them. They didn't run particularly well at the regional meet last year but I think some things have changed over there and expect them to be much better prepared.

2. Medina -- 129 points: This team has had a "problem" at 4 and 5 for the past month or so but it seems they solidified that a bit this weekend. If they want to contend with Hudson their four and five will have to have an ever bigger day than they did at the district and I don't see that happening to a great enough extent, at least not this week. Their advantage lies at the #1 position with the stud Keller. She should be in the hunt for a top 3 finish, which means a top 2 team place finish with Solon not qualifying as a team and Howell the heavy favorite. They have been very solid the last three years with three consecutive top 10 finishes at the state meet.

3. Shaker Heights -- 149 points: This is a team that constantly flies under the radar but shows up and surprises a lot of people at the end of the season every year it seems. They are well coached and have built a solid cross country and track program. They won a close conference meet last weekend over Medina and were only a handful of points off of them at the district. They, too, have a genuine stud in Carrier and she is probably the favorite for the runner-up position behind Howell as she has beaten Keller two weeks in a row. If their 5th runner has a better race they could easily find themselves in 2nd.

4. Highland -- 160 points: This is an incredibly talented squad that has been running well all season. Two weeks ago they laid the wood to Medina at the Medina Cross Country Festival and Medina only beat them on a tie-breaker this week. They have a stud at #1 in Kenne and a very solid 2-3. They fall off hard after #5 and that is a bit scary. If someone doesn't have a good day they are in a bit of trouble. Four of their top 7 are freshman and I tend to believe that freshman have a hard time sustaining great performances all season long, especially in a program that is in the process of taking a big leap forward. I wouldn't be surprised to see them in second or third but put them at fourth for the aforementioned reason.

5. Brunswick -- 180 points: This is a team that unfortunately is without their #1 runner, Pasadyn, otherwise they would be challenging Hudson at the top. Even with that in mind they are still a good team and possibly the best coached of any team at this regional. Time and again Coach Hunter has his team ready to go when it matters most and I don't think that will be any different this year. Their 1-3 are quite good and their 4-5 had solid races at the district. They, too, have a depth problem but being that they are an established program I have confidence that they will rise to the occasion.

6. St. Joe's -- 230 points: Could there really be 5 teams in a row from the Medina district, taking spots 2-6 here? It seems implausible, but when you look at the depth of the Medina district compared to the others, maybe it's not that crazy of an idea after all. This is a team that has been very, very quiet all season long but seems to be getting healthy and hitting their stride (pun intended) at the right time. They, too, are coached well by Coach Kieser and that is evidenced by how well they ran at the district. Their 1-2 punch is better than just about anyone else's. Their 3-5 are closely packed and their 6-7 aren't terribly far back either.

7. Nordonia -- 269 points: Here's my upset pick. Stow could be here. Twinsburg could be here. Perry could be here. Jackson could be here. But when I look at all those teams and ask myself who is both trending in the right direction and who is the best coached, I have to go with Nordonia. The Glenoak district was weaker than I thought and while Perry has impressed the last couple weeks, I wonder if they are due for a bit of a backward slide. Maybe they will prove me wrong: more power to them. I just get a sense that coach Martin will have his girls ready to go after that confidence booster of a district performance. It should be interesting however it plays out.

8. Twinsburg -- 275 points
9. Perry -- 290 points
10. Stow -- 309 points

One thing that really makes me pause and wonder when looking at my predictions is that all seven teams are from two districts with five of those seven from one district. I think the Medina district was just that much deeper than all the other districts with Trumbull County a distant 2nd.

The forecast is currently calling for wetter conditions this week and if that is the case all bets are off! Adverse conditions is one of the great equalizers! Here's to some cross country weather!

What a great time of year. Let's enjoy the ride.

Cheers.
Another excellent set of predictions! Not a hiccup until the 7th and final qualifying team spot, but Perry was on your radar.
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  #28  
Old 10-29-17, 07:27 PM
peebles peebles is offline
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DII went pretty much as I expected, but Poland and Garfield finished much lower than I expected. Salem was the top Trumbull District team finishing eighth and sent their #1 to State. Not a bad showing for a fairly young team.
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Old 10-29-17, 08:04 PM
SOTT SOTT is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr. Slippery View Post
Another excellent set of predictions! Not a hiccup until the 7th and final qualifying team spot, but Perry was on your radar.
Thanks Mr. Slippery. It's always fun to prognosticate a bit! It was a fun day of cross country.
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  #30  
Old 10-29-17, 09:58 PM
jakeburg jakeburg is offline
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Originally Posted by billrodgers View Post
East Canton Big winner margin?
McDonald?
Maplewood?
Gilmour Academy?

Boys Teams
McDonald made sure they weren't BIG winners. Look for McDonald to take a state title in 2018. When I saw them at Regionals last year as the first team that didn't make it out, and saw how young they were, I haven't stopped talking to my team about them. When we beat them at Boardman earlier this year, I said, "They're not done yet."

Sure enough.

But it's 2017, and Boardman D3 boys Regional had some drama, exhilaration, and heartbreak in it. It's why we love this sport. I hope the NE Region dominates the State meet in boys D3, but we shall see.
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