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  #121  
Old 08-12-13, 07:43 AM
OhioBobcatFan06 OhioBobcatFan06 is offline
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Financials were certainly underbought for awhile but they will be hit harder than most industries in a slowdown.
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  #122  
Old 08-12-13, 08:56 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by OhioBobcatFan06 View Post
Financials were certainly underbought for awhile but they will be hit harder than most industries in a slowdown.
Why "short" the s&p then? Why not just financials? You some kinda gopher?
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  #123  
Old 08-12-13, 09:03 AM
OhioBobcatFan06 OhioBobcatFan06 is offline
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S&P is more overbought than financials. Financials business will be hurt worse but they aren't overbought like other sectors.
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  #124  
Old 08-12-13, 09:12 AM
DennisRodman DennisRodman is offline
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Bac not yet overbought.
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  #125  
Old 08-12-13, 09:17 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by OhioBobcatFan06 View Post
S&P is more overbought than financials. Financials business will be hurt worse but they aren't overbought like other sectors.
Why does that matter? If you expect financials to be down most, because of the debt ceiling issue, why would you leave money on the table shorting the s&p rather than financials? Seems like a no brainier if you are confident in your analysis.
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  #126  
Old 08-12-13, 09:49 AM
TheBigGulp TheBigGulp is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by eastside_purple View Post
Why does that matter? If you expect financials to be down most, because of the debt ceiling issue, why would you leave money on the table shorting the s&p rather than financials? Seems like a no brainier if you are confident in your analysis.
This is just another example of OBCD's unbelievable theories to investing. "Analyst" . If true, I would really feel suspect as to what firm hired this guy. One way to check would be to run a broker check on him. CPC, are you friends with this guy on FB?
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  #127  
Old 08-12-13, 09:56 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by eastside_purple View Post
Why does that matter? If you expect financials to be down most, because of the debt ceiling issue, why would you leave money on the table shorting the s&p rather than financials? Seems like a no brainier if you are confident in your analysis.
The S&P is currently overbought... Financials are not... Financials get hit harder in a downswing like we will see soon, but because they aren't overbought to start shorting them won't net me as much cash.

The math really isn't that hard.
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  #128  
Old 08-12-13, 09:58 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by OhioBobcatFan06 View Post
The S&P is currently overbought... Financials are not... Financials get hit harder in a downswing like we will see soon, but because they aren't overbought to start shorting them won't net me as much cash.

The math really isn't that hard.
So, if the s&p goes down 15% and the financial sector 25%, you somehow make more money because the s&p is "overbought"? How does that work? Include the easy math, please.
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  #129  
Old 08-12-13, 10:00 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by eastside_purple View Post
So, if the s&p goes down 15% and the financial sector 25%, you somehow make more money because the s&p is "overbought"? How does that work? Include the easy math, please.
Financials would obviously be down less than thr S&P on a % basis.

Gophers.
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  #130  
Old 08-12-13, 10:01 AM
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I am so freaking lost
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  #131  
Old 08-12-13, 10:03 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by OhioBobcatFan06 View Post
Financials were certainly underbought for awhile but they will be hit harder than most industries in a slowdown.
"Hit harder" means "down less"?
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  #132  
Old 08-12-13, 10:04 AM
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I am so freaking lost
Obfd said something dumb.
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  #133  
Old 08-12-13, 10:06 AM
#JustSayin #JustSayin is offline
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Par for the course.
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  #134  
Old 08-12-13, 10:06 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by eastside_purple View Post
"Hit harder" means "down less"?
Their business would be hit harder. How they are valued by investors is a separate issue.
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  #135  
Old 08-12-13, 10:10 AM
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Originally Posted by OhioBobcatFan06 View Post
Their business would be hit harder. How they are valued by investors is a separate issue.
Usually they move in lockstep. Nearly every time there is a correction, the sector that also has it's business impacted will see a more severe correction.
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  #136  
Old 08-12-13, 10:12 AM
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Originally Posted by eastside_purple View Post
Usually they move in lockstep. Nearly every time there is a correction, the sector that also has it's business impacted will see a more severe correction.
Thatd make sense if I thought valuations are currently correct for the S&P
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  #137  
Old 08-12-13, 10:20 AM
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Originally Posted by OhioBobcatFan06 View Post
Thatd make sense if I thought valuations are currently correct for the S&P
So you are saying the negative business impact to the financial segment, which you revised would be greater than other segments, is already priced into them? How?
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  #138  
Old 08-12-13, 10:41 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by eastside_purple View Post
So you are saying the negative business impact to the financial segment, which you revised would be greater than other segments, is already priced into them? How?
Basically.

Financials were undervalued with people still not trusting them from 08 more than they distrust other sectors... Other sectors have gotten out of control lately while financials have avoided the ridiculous runup.
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  #139  
Old 08-12-13, 10:44 AM
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OBCD confirmed NOT an analyst. Nice try buddy.
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  #140  
Old 08-12-13, 10:49 AM
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Ytd financials are up 21%; 3yr avg 14%; pe 13
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=IYG

Ytd s&p 500 up 20%; 3yr avg 18%; pe 15
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=SPY

Doesn't look like this really bears out the kind of differential you are talking about. Also, you expect financials to have a material negative earnings impact as a result of the correction, yet you think the s&p will be down significantly more? Doesn't really make sense.
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  #141  
Old 08-12-13, 10:52 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by eastside_purple View Post
Ytd financials are up 21%; 3yr avg 14%; pe 13
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=IYG

Ytd s&p 500 up 20%; 3yr avg 18%; pe 15
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=SPY

Doesn't look like this really bears out the kind of differential you are talking about. Also, you expect financials to have a material negative earnings impact as a result of the correction, yet you think the s&p will be down significantly more? Doesn't really make sense.
Financials were much more oversold than the S&P at large in the last crash, so they obviously would see a bigger runup and still not be overbought.
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  #142  
Old 08-12-13, 10:57 AM
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Originally Posted by OhioBobcatFan06 View Post
Financials were much more oversold than the S&P at large in the last crash, so they obviously would see a bigger runup and still not be overbought.
15 vs 13 ttm pe, suggests financials aren't materially valued differently than the s&p as a whole. In fact, the financial sector probably has a lower multiple historically than the s&p. And you think financials are going to take a greater financial hit in this correction.
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  #143  
Old 08-12-13, 10:58 AM
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Originally Posted by TheBigGulp View Post
OBCD confirmed NOT an analyst. Nice try buddy.
Obfd did you make up a story?
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  #144  
Old 08-12-13, 11:06 AM
OhioBobcatFan06 OhioBobcatFan06 is offline
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Not sure what $ is talking about. My job title is financial analyst.
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  #145  
Old 08-12-13, 11:16 AM
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Do you work in the financial sector?
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  #146  
Old 08-12-13, 11:19 AM
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$, you don't have to be a licensed broker to be some sort of analyst so brokercheck would do no good.

In any event, this whole convo and thread is hilarious. Ofgt is a total moron.
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  #147  
Old 08-12-13, 11:19 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by OhioBobcatFan06 View Post
Not sure what $ is talking about. My job title is financial analyst.
I held the title of Financial Analyst at one time in my career too............ had nothing to do with the stock market though.
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  #148  
Old 08-12-13, 11:19 AM
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LinkedIn says finances L'Oreal
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  #149  
Old 08-12-13, 11:19 AM
OhioBobcatFan06 OhioBobcatFan06 is offline
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Nope. I'm in finance outside of the financial sector.

Edit: That was directed at ep. The other 3 are correct.
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  #150  
Old 08-12-13, 11:20 AM
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That's what LinkedIn says, finances
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