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  #1  
Old 12-20-16, 11:28 AM
serpico serpico is offline
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Dow 20,000?

It's getting close. I've gotta believe there will be a somewhat major pullback soon, but every time I have that feeling I'm reminded that market timing isn't a great strategy. Opinions?
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  #2  
Old 12-20-16, 11:37 AM
EastYoungstown EastYoungstown is offline
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wasn't there supposed to be a huge crash after Trump was elected?
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  #3  
Old 12-20-16, 12:57 PM
19AL63 19AL63 is offline
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I just had a meet and greet with my financial advisor and questioned where the sock market is right now. Told him i would not minded a small adjustment but at my age i did not want to be heavily invested and have it crash. he told me he really thinks we are going to see 25,000 in the near future.
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  #4  
Old 12-20-16, 01:01 PM
Michael Bluth Michael Bluth is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 19AL63 View Post
he told me he really thinks we are going to see 25,000 in the near future.
He has no idea where the Dow is going to be in the near future.

As to the original post, I've recently begun moving to a slightly more conservative allocation, but still with a higher % in stocks than cash or bonds. Have also slowed my periodic investments into stock funds
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  #5  
Old 12-20-16, 03:52 PM
WinstonSmith WinstonSmith is offline
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100% stock allocation for all retirement accounts. Have maintained normal investments into non-retirement, but will not be making any extra contributions there for some time as I have been doing periodically.
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  #6  
Old 12-20-16, 04:19 PM
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eastside_purple eastside_purple is offline
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There could be a crash, but a financial advisor who predicts Dow 25k in short order should send up huge red flags.

Personallly, I never change my plan.
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  #7  
Old 12-20-16, 05:21 PM
WinstonSmith WinstonSmith is offline
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To clarify, I am not changing anything except not currently adding money on top of the regular contributions I am continuing to make into my taxable account.

I also agree you should be a little wary of that adviser.
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  #8  
Old 12-20-16, 05:31 PM
19AL63 19AL63 is offline
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I have used this adviser for many years and he has only lead be wrong once and most of what we did that time was my idea. He predicts much better than I do. Also I am retired and my fund is very conservative and he makes me money without taking high risks.
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  #9  
Old 12-20-16, 05:51 PM
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eastside_purple eastside_purple is offline
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Originally Posted by 19AL63 View Post
I have used this adviser for many years and he has only lead be wrong once and most of what we did that time was my idea. He predicts much better than I do. Also I am retired and my fund is very conservative and he makes me money without taking high risks.
I'd say investing on the notion the Dow will hit 25k in the near future is pretty risky, but whatever, it sounds like you are happy with this guy.
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  #10  
Old 12-20-16, 11:07 PM
EagleGuy EagleGuy is offline
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Sitting pat - as usual - and making weekly contributions to 401(k). 70% in low-cost index funds and 30% in liquid funds (rainy day/dry powder).

I can't imagine reaching 25,000 in the near term. Even if the IoT is the next big thing, I don't see it happening overnight and without bumps in the road (e.g. privacy issues). However, I will root for it!

Even making 20,000 may be difficult if the Curse of Round Numbers has anything to say about it.
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  #11  
Old 02-05-18, 03:36 PM
serpico serpico is offline
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A little recent nostalgia given today's wild ride on the DJIA...
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  #12  
Old 02-05-18, 03:53 PM
clarkgriswold clarkgriswold is offline
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Ouch.

Just keep telling myself it is about slow and steady over time...
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  #13  
Old 02-05-18, 03:58 PM
frecriss frecriss is offline
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The markets are based on speculation.

When Trump was elected, the speculation was that taxes would be cut, jobs would created and wages would go up. All that happened which caused the stock market to surge.

The speculation now is that the Fed will raise interest rates to strengthen the dollar and ward off inflation. With that, investors are pulling out of stocks and investing in Bonds/Funds.
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  #14  
Old 02-05-18, 04:10 PM
Arrogate Arrogate is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 19AL63 View Post
I just had a meet and greet with my financial advisor and questioned where the sock market is right now. Told him i would not minded a small adjustment but at my age i did not want to be heavily invested and have it crash. he told me he really thinks we are going to see 25,000 in the near future.
Your guy was right
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  #15  
Old 02-05-18, 04:20 PM
clarkgriswold clarkgriswold is offline
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Your guy was right
I wonder if he told him he would see 25,000 twice, on the way up and the way down.
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  #16  
Old 02-05-18, 09:33 PM
lotr10 lotr10 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by frecriss View Post
The markets are based on speculation.

When Trump was elected, the speculation was that taxes would be cut, jobs would created and wages would go up. All that happened which caused the stock market to surge.

The speculation now is that the Fed will raise interest rates to strengthen the dollar and ward off inflation. With that, investors are pulling out of stocks and investing in Bonds/Funds.
This sounds about right to me. My guess is some folks are spooked by the prediction of the Atlanta Fed office that first quarter GDP growth might be on the order of 5.7%! This kind of growth will always trigger inflation concerns. The good news is that interest rates are very low giving the Fed some wiggle room to raise rates, keeping inflation under control without doing to much damage.
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  #17  
Old 02-05-18, 11:58 PM
arizonawildcat arizonawildcat is offline
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If the Dow goes down further, start looking at the stocks you were kicking yourself for not buying earlier. A down market is a great opportuity to purchase those stocks.
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  #18  
Old 02-06-18, 09:44 AM
lotr10 lotr10 is offline
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Originally Posted by arizonawildcat View Post
If the Dow goes down further, start looking at the stocks you were kicking yourself for not buying earlier. A down market is a great opportuity to purchase those stocks.
Absolutely right AW. There are some excellent dividend paying aristocrats approaching prices that are very attractive.
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  #19  
Old 02-06-18, 06:01 PM
lotr10 lotr10 is offline
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Darn, I missed my chance to buy!
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  #20  
Old 02-07-18, 08:10 AM
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Darn, I missed my chance to buy!


tempted to buy some Fox stock. Comcast and Disney are about to get into a bidding war.
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  #21  
Old 02-07-18, 11:08 AM
arizonawildcat arizonawildcat is offline
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I would sit on the sidelines until the Dow stops yo-yoing.
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  #22  
Old 02-07-18, 11:14 AM
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Nah, just keep dollar cost averaging into the market, you will be fine. Timing it is always a losing proposition.
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