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Old 10-24-17, 11:45 AM
Sevens Sevens is offline
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Division IV Region 16

My predictions for the final standings in Region 16:

1. Valley View 31.0000
2. Wyoming 27.6808
3. Taft 26.6722
4. Massie 24.4500
5. London 23.2000
6. Jon Alder 22.6500
7. Indian Hill 20.2652
8. Waverly 18.6500

9. Fenwick 16.1612
10. Aiken 15.0735
11. Shawnee 14.6500
12. Oakwood 13.4000

I didn't do Kenton Ridge, but they could end up somewhere in the top 12.

The two big games are Indian Hill-Wyoming and Waverly-River Valley.

I have Wyoming winning. If Indian Hill wins and all other things stay the same Indian Hill would jump to 3rd moving Taft to 2nd, Wyoming would fall to 5th, dropping London to 6th and Jon Alder to 7th.

The only team with a possibility of jumping Waverly for 8th unless Waverly loses is Oakwood. But the necessary results for that to happen are improbable at best. Oakwood would obviously need to win, they would also need ALL of the following to happen: Mariemont over Deer Park, Milton over Waynesville, Preble Shawnee over Monroe, Chesapeake over Fairland, Huntington over Zane Trace, Brookville over Franklin, and Eaton over Valley View.

The reality is Waverly will be 8th unless they lose.

Now, if Waverly loses:

I would have Waverly dropping to 16.9500.

Fenwick is pretty set at 16.1612, so they would still need some help. They would need Huntington to beat Zane Trace AND Chesapeake to beat Fairland. Plus, they would need Oakwood to lose. Huntington over Zane Trace seems unlikely.

Aiken is in the same boat, they need Zane Trace AND Chesapeake to beat Fairland, but they would still be behind Fenwick. Fenwick isn't going to drop below 16.1612 unless Miami Valley beats CHCA which seems unlikely. So Aiken would need Walnut Hills to beat Meadowdale, Maderia to beat Taylor, NCH to beat Summit, Shroder to beat Gamble, Hughes to beat Ponitz, and Grant County, Ky. to win. Plus, they would need Oakwood to lose. That's a lot.

Shawnee is realistically eliminated. Their max points is 16.2000. They would need Waverly to lose AND Huntington to beat Zane Trace AND Chesapeake to beat Fairland for Waverly to fall below 16.2000. If that happens Waverly goes to 16.1000. So Shawnee would have to max out and would need Fenwick to lose, because Fenwick will not drop below 16.1612 unless Miami Valley beats CHCA. They would also need Oakwood to lose. So Shawnee needs Waverly to lose, Oakwood to lose, Fenwick to lose or CHCA to lose, Zane Trace to lose, Fairland to lose, and then max out which means they also need Dunbar to beat Marshall, Indian Lake to beat Ben Logan, Urbana to beat Northwestern, AND Kenton Ridge to beat Bellefontaine.

Oakwood would have the best chance to pass Waverly if Waverly loses. I've got Waverly at 16.9500 with a loss and no real room for movement. They could climb to 17.0000 if Piketon beat Unioto. I've got Oakwood at 17.1500 if they beat Bellbrook. So staying above 17.0000 is plausible. First, they would obviously have to beat Bellbrook. They would also need three of the following to happen: Mariemont over Deer Park, Milton over Waynesville, Monroe over Shawnee, Eaton over Valley View, Brookville over Franklin.

So Waverly needs the opposite to happen if they lose to stay in 8th, plus they would need Fairland and Zane Trace to win.

There are a bunch of possibilities of seeding changes in 2-7 outside of the Wyoming-Indian Hill game. But they are to voluminous to list all of them. If someone wants to discuss a potential scenario I'm willing.

Last edited by Sevens; 10-24-17 at 01:23 PM.
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Old 10-24-17, 01:12 PM
IRLMN1999 IRLMN1999 is offline
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Wyoming Vs. Valley View/Massie in Regional Final

If feel these three teams are above everyone else
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