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Old 11-08-17, 05:08 PM
vamp2syd vamp2syd is online now
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Vamps V2S power ratings/Cal-Prep/Drew Pasteur challenge: round 2

Round 1 results:

Vamp's V2S power ratings: 93-19
Cal-Preps super computer: 92-20
Drew Pasteur fantastic 50: 91-21

Cal-Prep round 2 projections: http://www.calpreps.com/cgi-bin/2017...l?week=Ohio_12
Drew Pasteur round 2 projections: http://www.fantastic50.net/picks.html

V2S Power Ratings of teams left in the playoffs.

Division 1

1 9 - 2 Colerain 96.982 gmc d1 R 4
2 10 - 1 St. Xavier 95.782 gcl-s d1 R 4
3 10 - 1 St. Ignatius 95.600 z-ind d1 R 1
5 10 - 1 Pickerington Central 92.364 occ-o d1 R 3
6 10 - 1 St. Edward 92.327 z-ind d1 R 1
7 9 - 2 Pickerington North 90.727 occ-o d1 R 3
8 10 - 1 Mentor 89.564 gcc d1 R 1
11 10 - 1 Centerville 88.873 gwoc-e d1 R 3
13 11 - 0 Toledo Whitmer 85.927 trac d1 R 2
15 11 - 0 Hilliard Bradley 85.200 occ-car d1 R 3
18 9 - 2 Mason 83.564 gmc d1 R 4
21 9 - 2 Euclid 82.873 gcc d1 R 1
23 9 - 2 Olentangy Liberty 82.182 occ-b d1 R 2
31 7 - 4 Gahanna Lincoln 78.364 occ-o d1 R 2
38 8 - 3 Olentangy 77.236 occ-b d1 R 2
38 9 - 2 Sycamore 77.236 gmc d1 R 4

Division 2

4 10 - 1 Hoban 92.473 ncl-b d2 R 5
9 10 - 1 Winton Woods 89.455 z-ind d2 R 8
12 9 - 2 LaSalle 86.691 gcl-s d2 R 8
16 11 - 0 Barberton 85.164 sl-a d2 R 5
22 11 - 0 Wadsworth 82.836 sl-n d2 R 6
28 11 - 0 Avon 78.945 swc d2 R 6
37 10 - 1 Anderson 77.309 ecc d2 R 8
45 10 - 1 Bedford 75.418 lel d2 R 5
49 8 - 3 Massillon-Washington 74.873 z-ind d2 R 7
51 10 - 1 Olmsted Falls 73.673 swc d2 R 6
56 9 - 2 Medina Highland 73.127 sl-a d2 R 6
91 10 - 1 Sidney 67.600 gwoc-n d2 R 8
97 9 - 2 Brush 66.873 wrc d2 R 5
106 9 - 2 Ashland 66.327 ocdc d2 R 7
154 9 - 1 Walnut Ridge 62.200 cc-s d2 R 7
162 7 - 4 New Albany 60.836 occ-cap d2 R 7

Division 3

10 11 - 0 Trotwood 89.091 gwoc-s d3 R 12
19 10 - 1 Columbus Bishop Hartley 83.455 ccl d3 R 11
24 11 - 0 Canfield 81.273 aac-r d3 R 9
32 9 - 2 Toledo Central Catholic 78.145 trac d3 R 10
43 8 - 3 St. Vincent-St.Mary 75.964 z-ind d3 R 9
47 9 - 2 Notre Dame Cathedral 75.236 ncl-b d3 R 9
58 9 - 2 Padua Franciscan 72.945 ncl-b d3 R 10
63 10 - 1 Bellefontaine 71.818 cbc-k d3 R 11
76 10 - 1 Tri-Valley 69.236 mvl d3 R 11
82 9 - 2 Clyde 68.582 sbc-l d3 R 10
96 11 - 0 Bay 66.909 glc d3 R 10
100 8 - 3 Chaminade-Julienne 66.800 gcl-n d3 R 12
103 8 - 3 Tallmadge 66.655 sl-a d3 R 9
107 9 - 2 New Richmond 65.964 sbc-a d3 R 12
117 10 - 1 Columbus Independence 64.873 cc-s d3 R 11
203 8 - 3 Dunbar 58.073 sopl-n d3 R 12

Division 4

25 11 - 0 Shelby 80.291 sbc-b d4 R 14
40 11 - 0 Steubenville 77.200 z-ind d4 R 13
46 11 - 0 Valley View 75.345 swbl-s d4 R 16
48 7 - 4 Youngstown Mooney 74.982 z-ind d4 R 13
55 11 - 0 Perry-Perry 73.273 cvc-c d4 R 13
60 10 - 1 Clinton Massie 72.364 sbc-a d4 R 16
65 10 - 1 St. Mary's Memorial 71.418 wbl d4 R 14
72 11 - 0 Clear Fork 70.073 moac d4 R 14
84 11 - 0 Wyoming 68.436 chl d4 R 16
111 11 - 0 Licking Valley 65.455 lcl d4 R 15
113 8 - 3 Bellevue 65.418 sbc-l d4 R 14
129 11 - 0 Indian Valley 63.855 ivc-b d4 R 15
134 10 - 1 Girard 63.345 aac-b d4 R 13
142 9 - 2 Indian Hill 62.764 chl d4 R 16
179 9 - 2 John Glenn 59.418 mvl d4 R 15
210 8 - 3 Philo 57.527 mvl d4 R 15

Division 5

50 11 - 0 Wheelersburg 74.618 soc-d2 d5 R 19
80 11 - 0 Eastwood 69.091 nobc d5 R 18
119 9 - 2 Johnstown Monroe 64.618 lcl d5 R 19
125 8 - 2 CHCA 64.200 mvc-s d5 R 20
132 9 - 2 Manchester (Akron) 63.491 pac d5 R 17
137 11 - 0 South Range 63.055 z-ind d5 R 17
138 9 - 1 Marion Pleasant 62.960 moac d5 R 18
166 9 - 2 Middletown Madison 60.618 swbl-b d5 R 20
175 10 - 1 Black River 59.818 pac-s d5 R 17
184 11 - 0 West Jefferson 59.091 ohc d5 R 20
207 9 - 2 Archbold 57.709 nwoal d5 R 18
217 9 - 2 Otsego 57.200 nobc d5 R 18
243 9 - 2 Columbus Academy 54.291 msl-oh d5 R 19
258 10 - 1 Portsmouth West 53.345 soc-d2 d5 R 19
334 8 - 3 Wickliffe 47.855 cvc-c d5 R 17
358 8 - 3 Reading 46.218 chl d5 R 20

Division 6

27 11 - 0 Marion Local 79.673 mac d6 R 24
108 8 - 3 Coldwater 65.927 mac d6 R 24
120 11 - 0 Kirtland 64.582 cvc-v d6 R 21
127 10 - 1 Norwayne 63.891 wcal d6 R 21
136 10 - 1 Liberty-Benton 63.200 bvc d6 R 22
159 11 - 0 Nelsonville-York 61.164 tvc-o d6 R 23
177 9 - 2 Spencerville 59.636 nwc d6 R 24
180 11 - 0 Rootstown 59.345 ptc-c d6 R 21
211 10 - 1 Lima Central Catholic 57.491 z-ind d6 R 24
224 9 - 1 Mogadore 56.080 ptc-c d6 R 21
242 8 - 3 Hillsdale 54.436 wcal d6 R 22
265 9 - 2 Hicksville 52.436 grmc d6 R 22
275 10 - 1 Fort Frye 51.600 pvc d6 R 23
331 10 - 1 Dawson-Bryant 48.109 ovc d6 R 23
342 11 - 0 Chillicothe Southeastern 47.345 svc d6 R 23
347 8 - 3 Carey 46.945 n10 d6 R 22

Division 7

147 7 - 4 Minster 62.545 mac d7 R 28
152 11 - 0 Dalton 62.327 wcal d7 R 25
168 11 - 0 St. Paul 60.436 fc d7 R 26
186 9 - 1 Cuyahoga Heights 59.000 cvc-v d7 R 25
208 7 - 4 Delphos St. Johns 57.636 mac d7 R 28
225 10 - 1 Sidney Lehman Catholic 56.073 nwcc d7 R 28
226 9 - 2 McComb 56.036 bvc d7 R 26
236 10 - 1 Convoy Crestview 55.091 nwc d7 R 28
237 10 - 1 Danville 55.055 kmac d7 R 27
253 9 - 2 East Canton 53.636 ivc-s d7 R 25
283 9 - 2 Pandora-Gilboa 51.055 bvc d7 R 26
357 8 - 3 Calvert 46.291 sbc-r d7 R 26
387 7 - 4 Hannibal River 43.236 ovac d7 R 27
427 9 - 2 Trimble 40.836 tvc-h d7 R 27
453 9 - 2 Windham 38.691 neac d7 R 25
461 9 - 2 Sciotoville East Community 37.927 soc-d1 d7 R 27
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  #2  
Old 11-08-17, 05:09 PM
vamp2syd vamp2syd is online now
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V2S Power Ratings Round 2 Projections

Region 1
#1 St. Ignatius (10-1) by 13 vs. #4 Euclid (9-2)
#2 St. Edward (10-1) by 3 vs. #3 Mentor (10-1)

Region 2
#1 Whitmer (11-0) by 9 vs. #5 Olentangy (8-3)
#2 Olentangy Liberty (9-2) by 4 vs. #6 Gahanna Lincoln (7-4)

Region 3
#1 Centerville (10-1) vs. #5 Pickerington North (9-2) by 2
#2 Hilliard Bradley (11-0) vs. #3 Pickerington Central (10-1) by 7

Region 4
#1 St. Xavier (10-1) by 19 vs. #4 Sycamore (9-2)
#2 Colerain (9-2) by 13 vs. #3 Mason (9-2)

Region 5
#1 Hoban (10-1) by 26 vs. #4 Brush (9-2)
#2 Barberton (10-0) by 10 vs. #3 Bedford (10-1)

Region 6
#1 Avon (11-0) by 6 vs. #4 Highland (9-2)
#2 Wadsworth (11-0) by 9 vs. #3 Olmsted Falls (10-1)

Region 7
#1 Walnut Ridge (9-1)by 1 vs. #5 New Albany (7-4)
#2 Massillon (8-3) by 9 vs. #6 Ashland (9-2)

Region 8
#1 LaSalle (9-2) by 19 vs. #4 Sidney (10-1)
#2 Winton Woods (10-1) by 12 vs. #3 Anderson (10-1)


Region 9
#1 Canfield (11-0) by 6 vs. #4 Notre Dame-Cathedral Latin (9 -2)
#6 St. Vincent-St. Mary (8-3) by 9 vs. #7 Tallmadge (8-3)

Region 10
#1Toledo Central Catholic (9-2) by 10 vs. #5 Clyde (9-2)
#2 Bay (11-0) vs. #3 Padua (9-2) by 6

Region 11
#1 Bellefontaine (10-1) by 3 vs. #5 Tri-Valley (10-1)
#2 Col. Independence (9-1) vs. #3 Bishop Hartley (10-1) by 19

Region 12
#1 Trotwood-Madison (11-0) by 31 vs. #5 Dunbar (8-3)
#6 New Richmond (9-2) vs. #7 Chaminade Julienne (8-3) by 1

Region 13
#1 Steubenville (11-0) by 2 vs. #5 Cardinal Mooney (7-4)
#2 Perry (11-0) by 10 vs. #6 Girard (10-1)

Region 14
#1 Clear Fork (11-0) by 5 vs. #5 Bellevue (8-3)
#2 Shelby (11-0) by 9 vs. #3 St. Mary's Memorial (10-1)

Region 15
#1 Licking Valley (11-0) by 6 vs. #5 John Glenn (9-2)
#3 Indian Valley (11-0) by 6 vs. #7 Philo (8-3)

Region 16
#1 Valley View (11-0) by 3 vs. #4 Clinton-Massie (10-1)
#2 Wyoming (11-0) by 6 vs. #6 Indian Hill (9-2)

Region 17
#1 South Range (11-0) vs. #4 Manchester (9-2) EVEN by 6 in OT
#3 Black River (10-1) by 12 vs. #7 Wickliffe (8-3)

Region 18
#1 Eastwood (11-0) by 12 vs. #5 Otsego (9-2)
#2 Pleasant (9-1) by 3 vs. #3 Archbold (9-2)

Region 19
#1 Wheelersburg (11-0) by 20 vs. #5 Col. Academy (9-2)
#2 Portsmouth West (9-1) vs. #3 Johnstown-Monroe (8-2) by 11

Region 20
#5 West Jefferson (10-0) by 13 vs. #8 Reading (8-3)
#2 Middletown Madison (9-2) vs. #3 Cincinnati Hills Christian Academy (8-2) by 4

Region 21
#1 Rootstown (11-0) vs. #4 Norwayne (10-1) by 5
#2 Mogadore (9-1) vs. #3 Kirtland (11-0) by 9

Region 22
#1 Liberty-Benton (10-1) by 11 vs. #4 Hicksville (9-2)
#6 Hillsdale (8-3) by 7 vs. #7 Carey (8-3)

Region 23
#1 Nelsonville-York (11-0) by 10 vs. #4 Fort Frye (10-1)
#2 Southeastern (11-0) vs. #3 Dawson-Bryant (10-1) by 1

Region 24
#1 Lima Central Catholic (10-1) vs. #4 Coldwater (8-3) by 8
#2 Marion Local (11-0) by 20 vs. #3 Spencerville (9-2)

Region 25
#1 Dalton (11-0) by 24 vs. #4 Windham (9-2)
#2 Cuyahoga Heights (9-1) by 5 vs. #3 East Canton (9-2)

Region 26
#1 St. Paul (11-0) by 14 vs. #5 Calvert (8-3)
#2 McComb (9-2) by 5 vs. #3 Pandora-Gilboa (9-2)

Region 27
#1 Danville (10-1) by 14 vs. #5 Trimble (9-2)
#6 River (7-4) by 5 vs. #7 Sciotoville Community (10-2)

Region 28
#1 Convoy Crestview (10-1) vs. #4 Minster (7-4) by 7
#2 Lehman Catholic (9-1) vs. #3 St. John's (6-4) by 2

Last edited by vamp2syd; 11-08-17 at 05:28 PM.
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  #3  
Old 11-08-17, 07:50 PM
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ELKSONE ELKSONE is offline
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So were your 19 losses, all upsets?
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  #4  
Old 11-08-17, 07:53 PM
Rangerfan Rangerfan is offline
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He is predicting 12 games to the lower seed this week.
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  #5  
Old 11-08-17, 08:59 PM
hoser hoser is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rangerfan View Post
He is predicting 12 games to the lower seed this week.
Uh, so you are telling me Marion Local is the number 25 team in the state regardless of division?Uh that is 504 schools who have more kids to chose from than Marion Local. Uh , don't think so.
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  #6  
Old 11-08-17, 09:37 PM
vamp2syd vamp2syd is online now
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ELKSONE View Post
So were your 19 losses, all upsets?
It depends what one considers to be an upset. Would a team that is projected to win by 1,2, or 3 points that loses be considered upset.... ???

All that I know is that my system did better than my personal picks. I thought for sure that some of what my system projected would not pan out but most of them did. Only 3 posters in the Yappi challenge did better than the system.
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  #7  
Old 11-08-17, 09:41 PM
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ELKSONE ELKSONE is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by vamp2syd View Post
It depends what one considers to be an upset. Would a team that is projected to win by 1,2, or 3 points that loses be considered upset.... ???

All that I know is that my system did better than my personal picks. I thought for sure that some of what my system projected would not pan out but most of them did. Only 3 posters in the Yappi challenge did better than the system.
How about in terms of their respective seeds?
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  #8  
Old 11-08-17, 09:42 PM
SVillegrad SVillegrad is offline
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FWIW, I don't have any mathematical system, but I was bored and predicted out how I thought the entire playoffs would go prior to round one, and was 92-20 in round 1.

I had some trouble with some of the SW Ohio regions (for example missed three of four in Region 12; missed two of four in Region 20 ... including my state champion Anna; missed two of four in Region 15; and two of four in Region 27).

On the flip side, only missed three games involving Northeast Ohio schools ... the area I really follow .... Brush over Hudson; Aurora over Canfield (I'm regretting that because my brain said Canfield); and Lakeview over Girard.

I won't hijack your thread, but if you were curious to see how your system (and Pasteur and Calpreps) compares to a random H.S. football fan's, let me know and I'll post my original second round picks (and insert my repicks where needed).

Edit: Well never mind, I completely overlooked that there was a challenge thread ... I never post in those so don't pay them attention.
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  #9  
Old 11-08-17, 09:48 PM
vamp2syd vamp2syd is online now
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ELKSONE View Post
How about in terms of their respective seeds?
No, in that case not all were upsets.
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  #10  
Old 11-08-17, 10:03 PM
vamp2syd vamp2syd is online now
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SVillegrad View Post
FWIW, I don't have any mathematical system, but I was bored and predicted out how I thought the entire playoffs would go prior to round one, and was 92-20 in round 1.

I had some trouble with some of the SW Ohio regions (for example missed three of four in Region 12; missed two of four in Region 20 ... including my state champion Anna; missed two of four in Region 15; and two of four in Region 27).

On the flip side, only missed three games involving Northeast Ohio schools ... the area I really follow .... Brush over Hudson; Aurora over Canfield (I'm regretting that because my brain said Canfield); and Lakeview over Girard.

I won't hijack your thread, but if you were curious to see how your system (and Pasteur and Calpreps) compares to a random H.S. football fan's, let me know and I'll post my original second round picks (and insert my repicks where needed).

Edit: Well never mind, I completely overlooked that there was a challenge thread ... I never post in those so don't pay them attention.
If I counted correctly there was about 165 posters that did the Yappi challenge and only 3 got more correct than my system. I only got 90 correct on my personal picks...
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  #11  
Old 11-08-17, 10:26 PM
SVillegrad SVillegrad is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by vamp2syd View Post
If I counted correctly there was about 165 posters that did the Yappi challenge and only 3 got more correct than my system. I only got 90 correct on my personal picks...
Yeah, that's impressive. Trust me, I wasn't trying to knock your system, just thought it would be interesting to see how it stacks up against a picker who is simply using their gut (though I've followed HS football for 25 or so years, so do think I'm pretty educated on the topic). But with the challenge thread (which I now see is pinned to the top ... lol, shows how much I pay attention), you do have that comparison covered.

I'll look forward to see how your system finishes against the people in the challenge. I'll have to venture over there and put my picks in.
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Old 11-09-17, 06:40 AM
Msfootball Msfootball is offline
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Originally Posted by hoser View Post
Uh, so you are telling me Marion Local is the number 25 team in the state regardless of division?Uh that is 504 schools who have more kids to chose from than Marion Local. Uh , don't think so.
Perhaps you are right. They did soundly defeat Chaminade Julienne this year. A team still alive in the D3 playoffs. Marion Local is a tad better than you care to admit.
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Old 11-09-17, 06:56 AM
bigkat bigkat is offline
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Originally Posted by hoser View Post
Uh, so you are telling me Marion Local is the number 25 team in the state regardless of division?Uh that is 504 schools who have more kids to chose from than Marion Local. Uh , don't think so.
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Old 11-09-17, 09:54 AM
hoser hoser is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Msfootball View Post
Perhaps you are right. They did soundly defeat Chaminade Julienne this year. A team still alive in the D3 playoffs. Marion Local is a tad better than you care to admit.
Uh Marion Local is an excellent team, probably the favorite to win the state in D6. Uh if Marion played a D1 schedule, would be a 500 team at best.Uh #26 in the whole state is a fantasy.
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Old 11-11-17, 08:29 AM
NorthCentral NorthCentral is online now
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How did these numbers play out compared to the Cal-Prep and Drew's?
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  #16  
Old 11-14-17, 05:42 PM
vamp2syd vamp2syd is online now
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Originally Posted by NorthCentral View Post
How did these numbers play out compared to the Cal-Prep and Drew's?
I will be working on them tonight. I watch a lot of games and I do not want to know the scores ahead of time so I stay away until I have finished watching them. I'll have it up tonight. I know the system did good in the 23 games I watched, 20-3 out of those game but overall I have a feeling it did not fair as well as last week....
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Old 11-14-17, 05:45 PM
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Originally Posted by vamp2syd View Post
I will be working on them tonight. I watch a lot of games and I do not want to know the scores ahead of time so I stay away until I have finished watching them. I'll have it up tonight. I know the system did good in the 23 games I watched, 20-3 out of those game but overall I have a feeling it did not fair as well as last week....
I would expect a drop off on accuracy as the playoffs continue and teams are more closely matched.
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  #18  
Old 11-14-17, 06:24 PM
vamp2syd vamp2syd is online now
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Cal-Preps: 45-11
Drew Pasteur: 45-11
V2S power ratings: 43-13

======================
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Old 11-14-17, 07:52 PM
Stirred not Shaken Stirred not Shaken is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hoser View Post
Uh Marion Local is an excellent team, probably the favorite to win the state in D6. Uh if Marion played a D1 schedule, would be a 500 team at best.Uh #26 in the whole state is a fantasy.
Your posts are a fantasy.
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  #20  
Old 11-15-17, 07:50 PM
hoser hoser is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Stirred not Shaken View Post
Your posts are a fantasy.
Uh just compare the lineups for the D1 powers in the state and a D6 team.Uh not even close. Uh how about college D1 schollys at D1 high schools and D6 high schools? Uh once again not even close. Uh I think you may been drinking your stirred beverages a little much.
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