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  #1  
Old 10-26-17, 07:01 PM
Arrogate Arrogate is offline
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Join Date: 12-27-16
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Breeders Cup

Almost a week away from my favorite day of the year. Been watching a lot of horses work over the track. Horses of note for their respective races:

Drefrong (sprint) is working lights out. Probably had the best work of any horse this past week.

Bolt D'Oro (juvenile)- interesting to see this in the late p4 Saturday. Some may take it as a free square and I can't blame them. He is working exceptionally well. The only horse who can beat imo is Free Drop Billy.

Collected- just looks okay, his gallop outs aren't the best and he was under a little bit of urging last work. He will be a toss in the win spot for me. Baffert doesn't seem to be too high on him which is odd.

Arrogate- Baffert is playing this close to the best. I don't think he wants to get his hopes up after his last two starts. He looks good in the flesh and has added weight. Baffert was yelling over at Asmussen after Gun Runner worked and jokingly said "that's a nice horse you have for the dirt mile". Still think he needs more time but I hope he runs huge

Gun Runner- training the best of any horse in the Classic. He has been in Cali for a month and man does he look like he is ready. He is on his A game and it looks like he is the definite favorite going into this.

Lady Aurelia (turf sprint) the queen is back stateside and I really hope she wins. Probably the best American Turf horse in some time. I believe first American horse to win a Cartier Award last year. She has been at Keeneland and Wesley Ward couldn't be happier with her.


West Coast- not sure what to make of his works. Doesn't seem to be going into this as well as he was for the Travers. Still he must be considered, has he improved enough at the right time?

Mor Spirit (dirt mile) put in a good work after a series of just ok works. I think he is the most likely winner of the dirt mile if he runs his A race.

Keen Ice- retired to stud.

For the European horses, any that have raced here in the states I am not impressed with so far. I will be researching lots of videos on them and looking to see who wants the firm ground.
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  #2  
Old 11-02-17, 02:36 PM
Arrogate Arrogate is offline
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Friday races will be the Juvenile fillies turf, juvenile colts turf, dirt mile, distant.

Going to be a tough p4 sequence because their isn't an overwhelming favorite.

Is anyone going to be betting? Send me a PM and I will email you some stuff I bought from Timeform. They have analysis of the euro horses, which is key because they can pick out who will run best in the states because the info comes from their main base which is in Europe.

Also it will will have some betting angles if you so choose

For the Juvenile filly turf I will use the too 2 euros, Happily and September. Will also use two Chad Brown horses in rushing Fall and Significant Form who will be a price.

Interesting to note the euros haven't fared too well in the Juvenile filly races in recent years. However this year they brought two much better horses than they usually bring for this fillies race.

The Turf Juvenile for Colts I will spread out significantly. Not sure on how many I will use but I think I will use some from this list: Masar, Mendelssohn (half to Beholder), catholic Boy, James Garfield, Flameaway, and Sniper Sinclair. Still not sure about this may find a new horse to add and toss a couple, who knows

Dirt Mile I think is Interesting. Lot of pace signed up in this affair. The likely favorite Mor Spirit hasn't raced since the Metropolitan Handicap in June. Training up to the race may be a knock against him and the pace seems like it too. Tough call here on him. Also other speed includes Sharp Azteca 3rd choice and Gato Del Oro along eith like five more tracking types. With that said I am interested at closers at a price. Will use Awesome Slew and Practical Joke. Practical Joke may not run his best at two turns but I think the pace sets him up well. Awesome Slew looks like he will get a fast pace to close into. May also use Accelerate, sitting off the leaders in a tracking position. Horse loves Del Mar

In the Distaff is wide open but I am taking a stand and I will most likely use Elate as my top pick and hope she wins or runs 2nd. She is an improving 3 year old who should get a good trip. I have no interest in Paradise Woods or Abel Tasman. I think Paradise Woods will run out of gas even though there isn't much speed in the race. Forever Unbridled looks to be a logical choice however will she be paced compromised? I think Stellar Wind could be logical but training up to this race off a 96 day layoff is a cause for concern.

Since no race offers a strong candidate for a single imo I am probably going to use elate as my single and key horse for exotica. Got to take a stand somewhere

Last edited by Arrogate; 11-02-17 at 05:54 PM.
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  #3  
Old 11-02-17, 06:03 PM
Arrogate Arrogate is offline
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Juvenile Fillies Turf
8- Significant Form
2- Happily
11- Rushing Fall
10- September

Dirt Mile
5 Awesome Slew
3- Sharp Azteca
8- Accelerate
10- Practical Joke (defensively)
6- Mor Spirit (will use defensively on a couple tickets)

Juvenile Colts Turf
1- Mendelssohn
6- Masar
7- James Garfield
Will use others defensively not sure who yet but these are my main horses in here

Distaff
5- Elate
6- Forever Unbridled
These two are my A horses. May use defensively
2- Stellar Wind
4- Abel Tasman
7- Paradise Woods

Last edited by Arrogate; 11-02-17 at 11:11 PM.
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  #4  
Old 11-02-17, 08:43 PM
clarkgriswold clarkgriswold is online now
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Good luck at the betting window this weekend Arrogate.
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  #5  
Old 11-03-17, 07:08 PM
Arrogate Arrogate is offline
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Pretty good day
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  #6  
Old 11-04-17, 11:12 AM
Arrogate Arrogate is offline
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After a very good day yesterday I am going to go after it hard today.

I got work out stuff sent to me and Bruno was on fire. Hope he does well today

Juvenile fillies
Moonshine memories
Princess warrior
Heavenly love
Alluring star

Turf sprint
Lady Aurelia....that is all

F+M dirt sprint
Going to try and beat unique bella (use defensively)

Will use these horses
By the moon
Skye diamonds
Highway star
Amis mesa
Carina Mia

F+M turf
Lady ELI looks the best
Will also use
Wuheida
Cambodia
Queens trust
Grand jete (small)
War flag (small)

Dirt sprint

Drefong is a deserving favorite
Main plays are him and
Takaful
Roy H
May use a couple others defensively

Turf mile
World approval is the bet of the day
Ribchester


Sudeois

Roly poly (small)
Ballagh Rock's (small)
Zelzal(even smaller)

Juvenile Colts

Probably the biggest favorite of the day

Bolt d'oro- should win for fun

Free Drop Billy (small)
Firenze fire (small)
Good magic (even smaller)

Turf classic
Highland reel looks the best
Ulysses (scratched) He was the main threat

Beach Patrol

Not sure who else to take

Classic
Arrogate- he is back and should present himself nicely today
Gun runner- deserving favorite
West coast- improving at the right time?

Don't like collected he got a soft pace last time out.
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  #7  
Old 11-04-17, 05:40 PM
Arrogate Arrogate is offline
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That Bar of Gold probably cost me the biggest ticket of my life.

Nailed the p3 starting with Wuheida and ending in world approval.

The center of my bets just won and I am setting Texas on fire. Anything from here on out is gravy
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  #8  
Old 11-04-17, 06:32 PM
clarkgriswold clarkgriswold is online now
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Can't believe it was relegated to NBCSC.
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  #9  
Old 11-04-17, 06:33 PM
Arrogate Arrogate is offline
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Still alive on one p4 and one p3. Need highland reel or Beach Patrol here. Would need arrogate gun runner West coast for both to hit. Same numbers on both tickets. Only for a dollar for both
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  #10  
Old 11-04-17, 06:44 PM
Arrogate Arrogate is offline
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Wow finished 2nd and 3rd.
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  #11  
Old 11-04-17, 07:54 PM
clarkgriswold clarkgriswold is online now
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Tough last race for Arrogate to go out on.
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  #12  
Old 11-04-17, 08:01 PM
Arrogate Arrogate is offline
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Shame he broke so bad. Utterly shocked at his performance since Dubai.

What a race a by Gun Runner, solid fractions on the bad part of the track and one the lead where it wasn't very good today. Any questions about his pedigree to get 1 1/4 miles was erased. Collected also ran a pretty damn good race himself
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