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  #91  
Old 10-18-17, 09:01 AM
Indiandad Indiandad is offline
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Originally Posted by 14Red View Post
So folks, the Reds have a big decision coming up. Zack Cozart, coming off his best season ever, is a free agent. The Reds can sign him to a one year qualifying offer for a little over $17 mill (for reference, he made just a little over $5 mill this year, and has made, in total thorugh 6 season, $12 mill in his career). Now the Reds CAN offer this, and Zack can refuse and go free agency, if he's signed for such and such money, the Reds get compensatory picks and stuff alot more complicated that Obamacare.

Honestly, I really like Cozart, and the Reds don't have drop dead replacement for him, but I just can't see giving Cozart, at age 33, that much money. I'm banking that he'll never play as well as he did in 2017, and more than likely would not get any kind of offer like this around baseball. I'm also concerned that his leg will never heal. He's gimped around with this leg now for 2 full seasons.

Wish him all the best, but there is no way the Reds could do this. Now, if Cozart is unemployed in February, and would want to come back to Cincy for say 3 years, $25 mill??? I'd do that.
1 year $8 million or let him walk. He needs to prove that this year was not a fluke. He is not a part of the Reds future.

Last edited by Indiandad; 10-18-17 at 09:44 AM..
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  #92  
Old 10-18-17, 09:14 AM
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$17m for Cozart? F no!
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  #93  
Old 10-18-17, 09:42 AM
Taco MacArthur Taco MacArthur is offline
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Originally Posted by 14Red View Post
How can you make such a statement?? Do you know how many more balls Billy can get to in the gaps than a normal centerfield can? You then can play our right and left fielders closer to the fouls lines and cover more ground.
Yeah, we've been over this. Billy saves 12 more runs per season (or 0.074 runs per game) than the average centerfielder.
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  #94  
Old 10-18-17, 09:45 AM
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14red must think Billy saves a run or more a game.
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  #95  
Old 10-18-17, 09:48 AM
Taco MacArthur Taco MacArthur is offline
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Originally Posted by eastside_purple View Post
14red must think Billy saves a run or more a game.
I mean, given how terrible his eye test is, I wouldn't be surprised if he sees an entirely different sport than the rest of us.
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  #96  
Old 10-18-17, 09:49 AM
Indiandad Indiandad is offline
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It sounds like Dick Williams will not be overly aggressive in FA this year. The starting pitching will need to "develop" and "mature" next season.

Peraza will get first crack at SS in Cozart's absence and Senzel will either play in Louisville or 2B.

Dick also says it's not to late for Billy to develop into a hitter.
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  #97  
Old 10-18-17, 10:10 AM
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Originally Posted by Indiandad View Post
It sounds like Dick Williams will not be overly aggressive in FA this year. The starting pitching will need to "develop" and "mature" next season.

Peraza will get first crack at SS in Cozart's absence and Senzel will either play in Louisville or 2B.

Dick also says it's not to late for Billy to develop into a hitter.
It would be silly to make a big fa signing this off season. This team isnít ready to compete. I have to think Gennett is expendable too with Senzel in the wings. No sense in burying him behind a lower ceiling player when the team isnít ready to contend.
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  #98  
Old 10-18-17, 10:45 AM
14Red 14Red is offline
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Yeah, we've been over this. Billy saves 12 more runs per season (or 0.074 runs per game) than the average centerfielder.
I do not believe in that statistic. That's some fictional computer program. We see on a weekly basis, Hamilton make plays that no other centerfielder makes. No way he only saves 12 runs more per season.
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  #99  
Old 10-18-17, 10:54 AM
Taco MacArthur Taco MacArthur is offline
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Originally Posted by 14Red View Post
I do not believe in that statistic. That's some fictional computer program. We see on a weekly basis, Hamilton make plays that no other centerfielder makes. No way he only saves 12 runs more per season.
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Originally Posted by Taco MacArthur View Post
I mean, given how terrible his eye test is, I wouldn't be surprised if he sees an entirely different sport than the rest of us.
Thank you for proving my point!

YOU see on a weekly basis that Billy Hamilton makes plays no other center fielder makes. Everyone else sees it about once every 2 weeks. How about you provide some proof that Billy saves more than 12 runs per season
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  #100  
Old 10-18-17, 11:02 AM
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How many putouts does he make a game? 2, maybe 3? How many of those are routine and can be made by nearly any major league outfielder? 75-80%? Other MLB CFs? 85-95%? I’d say 12 runs a year sounds about right.
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  #101  
Old 10-18-17, 11:03 AM
14Red 14Red is offline
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Originally Posted by Indiandad View Post
It sounds like Dick Williams will not be overly aggressive in FA this year. The starting pitching will need to "develop" and "mature" next season.

Peraza will get first crack at SS in Cozart's absence and Senzel will either play in Louisville or 2B.

Dick also says it's not to late for Billy to develop into a hitter.
I'd say if they can get a mediocre starter cheap, they may bite, but if everyone stays healthy, we should have plenty of arms to cover innings next season. I think you just have to put Peraza at short and leave him there for 2months, then evaluate. Unless there is an injury, I'd keep Senzel in LVille for all of '18. I don't want to rush him. Reds have two Cuban SS prospects who will be on their way. Peraza won't be your permanent shortstop forever, but I think you have to finally find out what you have with him.

My projected lineup for '18...in batting order

RF Jesse Winker
SS Jose Peraza
1B Joey Votto
LF Adam Duvall
2B Scooter Gennett
3B Eugenio Suarez
C Tucker Barnhart
P
CF Billy Hamilton

3 lefties, 3 righties, 2 switch hitters.

Winker leads off the game, which only guarantees he leads off an inning once. Billy hit's ninth, and in essence becomes a 2nd leadoff hitter. You have Winker, who is patient, hitting behind Billy so he can steal. Pet peeve of mine the last few years is Cozart hitting behind Billy and swinging at the first pitch often!!!

This my friends, is a pretty darn good lineup, offensively and defensively.
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  #102  
Old 10-18-17, 11:39 AM
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If Senzel isn't playing on this team next year, something is wrong with this organization.
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  #103  
Old 10-18-17, 02:01 PM
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Originally Posted by Indiandad View Post
1 year $8 million or let him walk. He needs to prove that this year was not a fluke. He is not a part of the Reds future.
I'd do that in a heartbeat, unfortunately, he may get another deal from another deal like that.
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  #104  
Old 10-18-17, 02:02 PM
14Red 14Red is offline
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Originally Posted by eastside_purple View Post
If Senzel isn't playing on this team next year, something is wrong with this organization.
He may be up at some point, but we have a major league caliber 3rd baseman and 2nd baseman right now, and there is no need to rush Senzel. Let's also see if he can hit triple A pitching.
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  #105  
Old 10-18-17, 02:25 PM
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Originally Posted by 14Red View Post
He may be up at some point, but we have a major league caliber 3rd baseman and 2nd baseman right now, and there is no need to rush Senzel. Let's also see if he can hit triple A pitching.
Itís not rushing him at all, heís ready.
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  #106  
Old 10-18-17, 03:48 PM
Indiandad Indiandad is offline
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I'd do that in a heartbeat, unfortunately, he may get another deal from another deal like that.
If another team offers a better deal then let him walk. $8M would get some good bullpen guys.
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  #107  
Old 10-18-17, 04:30 PM
Indiandad Indiandad is offline
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Originally Posted by eastside_purple View Post
If Senzel isn't playing on this team next year, something is wrong with this organization.
Where do you see the Reds playing him?
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  #108  
Old 10-19-17, 08:24 AM
14Red 14Red is offline
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Originally Posted by eastside_purple View Post
Itís not rushing him at all, heís ready.
With all due respect to you I'll trust the Reds front office over your opinion. Senzel looks good, but he's played against single and double A competition. Let's not let his turn into a Brandon Larson situation.
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  #109  
Old 10-19-17, 08:31 AM
Taco MacArthur Taco MacArthur is offline
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Originally Posted by 14Red View Post
With all due respect to you I'll trust the Reds front office over your opinion. Senzel looks good, but he's played against single and double A competition. Let's not let his turn into a Brandon Larson situation.
What if the Reds front office brings him up to start the year?
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  #110  
Old 10-19-17, 10:07 AM
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Originally Posted by Taco MacArthur View Post
What if the Reds front office brings him up to start the year?
Then he's up to start the year??? My guess for that to happen...

1. Scooter Gennett gets traded during the off season, or
2. Eugenio Suarez gets traded during the off season

These things could very well happen, although Suarez is a competent major league 3rd baseman, and he's very cheap right now. Gennett may make more sense to trade, but what was the market the last few years in aging 2nd basemen, we tried this with BP.

Barring either of the above, you'll need to go to Louisville next May to see Nick Senzel play. He may come up sometime during the season.
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  #111  
Old 10-19-17, 10:45 AM
Taco MacArthur Taco MacArthur is offline
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Then he's up to start the year??? My guess for that to happen...

1. Scooter Gennett gets traded during the off season, or
2. Eugenio Suarez gets traded during the off season

These things could very well happen, although Suarez is a competent major league 3rd baseman, and he's very cheap right now. Gennett may make more sense to trade, but what was the market the last few years in aging 2nd basemen, we tried this with BP.

Barring either of the above, you'll need to go to Louisville next May to see Nick Senzel play. He may come up sometime during the season.
So you won't think he's been rushed if the Reds FO decide he's ready?
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  #112  
Old 10-19-17, 01:23 PM
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Originally Posted by Indiandad View Post
Where do you see the Reds playing him?
Ideally third, but I donít really care. Heís a plus bat and needs to be in the lineup. My guess is they make him waste another year due to not wanting to start his fa clock.
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  #113  
Old 10-19-17, 01:26 PM
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Originally Posted by 14Red View Post
Then he's up to start the year??? My guess for that to happen...

1. Scooter Gennett gets traded during the off season, or
2. Eugenio Suarez gets traded during the off season

These things could very well happen, although Suarez is a competent major league 3rd baseman, and he's very cheap right now. Gennett may make more sense to trade, but what was the market the last few years in aging 2nd basemen, we tried this with BP.

Barring either of the above, you'll need to go to Louisville next May to see Nick Senzel play. He may come up sometime during the season.
They donít need to trade Suarez. He can play short or he can certainly play a corner OF position adequately.
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  #114  
Old 10-19-17, 01:57 PM
Monclova Steve Monclova Steve is offline
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I'm confident that Senzel is going to be a very successful major leaguer. How successful? I don't know.
No matter what level he begins the season at, he's at the point in his career when he must play everyday in order to keep improving. That means that, if he makes the Reds' opening day roster, he needs to be a starter at his position.
The biggest mistake the Reds can make with him is not bringing him up too late, but bringing him up before he's ready.
Thus far, his most advanced experience has been 57 games at the AA level. He did very well at Pensacola, but Pensacola ain't every day in the National League. Pensacola isn't even AAA.
Based on his track record, I see an excellent player with a bright future. I also see a very slim amount of evidence that he's ready to start in the major leagues.
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  #115  
Old 10-19-17, 05:18 PM
14Red 14Red is offline
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Originally Posted by Taco MacArthur View Post
So you won't think he's been rushed if the Reds FO decide he's ready?
If the Reds front office deems him ready, then yes, I'll be ok with it. But if you have Suarez at 3rd and Gennett at 2nd, why would you bring him up? Are you thinking of sitting one of two mentioned? You certainly aren't going to have Senzel be a utility player or sit? If he's in Cincy, he's got to play. And at this point, there is not a spot for him.
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  #116  
Old 10-19-17, 05:19 PM
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Originally Posted by Monclova Steve View Post
I'm confident that Senzel is going to be a very successful major leaguer. How successful? I don't know.
No matter what level he begins the season at, he's at the point in his career when he must play everyday in order to keep improving. That means that, if he makes the Reds' opening day roster, he needs to be a starter at his position.
The biggest mistake the Reds can make with him is not bringing him up too late, but bringing him up before he's ready.
Thus far, his most advanced experience has been 57 games at the AA level. He did very well at Pensacola, but Pensacola ain't every day in the National League. Pensacola isn't even AAA.
Based on his track record, I see an excellent player with a bright future. I also see a very slim amount of evidence that he's ready to start in the major leagues.
Thank you....
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  #117  
Old 10-19-17, 05:20 PM
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If the Reds front office deems him ready, then yes, I'll be ok with it. But if you have Suarez at 3rd and Gennett at 2nd, why would you bring him up? Are you thinking of sitting one of two mentioned? You certainly aren't going to have Senzel be a utility player or sit? If he's in Cincy, he's got to play. And at this point, there is not a spot for him.
No, Suarez plays a different position.
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  #118  
Old 10-19-17, 09:33 PM
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No, Suarez plays a different position.
Ok, shortstop, Senzel starts at 3rd and Gennett at 2nd. Possible...but again in my mind, I think Senzel needs some at bats in triple A.
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  #119  
Old 10-20-17, 07:53 AM
Taco MacArthur Taco MacArthur is offline
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If the Reds front office deems him ready, then yes, I'll be ok with it. But if you have Suarez at 3rd and Gennett at 2nd, why would you bring him up? Are you thinking of sitting one of two mentioned? You certainly aren't going to have Senzel be a utility player or sit? If he's in Cincy, he's got to play. And at this point, there is not a spot for him.
So you have no idea what the Reds FO position on this? I guess it's pretty odd to make the statement "I'll trust the Reds front office over your opinion." when you have no idea if the Reds FO and ep's opinion is one in the same.
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  #120  
Old 10-20-17, 08:58 AM
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Whatís the point of conversing about the 2018 Reds if your position is what ever the Reds decide is best? Have an opinion for christsakes.
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