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  #271  
Old 11-14-17, 05:41 PM
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Originally Posted by Indiandad View Post
What would he yield?
He would likely only pry one valued prospect in return and a middle tier prospect.
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  #272  
Old 11-14-17, 05:42 PM
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Originally Posted by Indiandad View Post
Yeah, moving Suarez to SS where he played 180 games at is a hare brained scheme. Playing Nick Senzel at 3rd is so far out that no one should fathom such a move.... except he plays 3rd base now. Using Billy Hamilton as a 4th outfielder/pinch runner is absurd and playing Schebler in CF to get Winker in the line up every day is bordering on lunacy.
I donít have a problem with any of that other than saying itís realistic it would produce the best NL offense in 10 years.
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  #273  
Old 11-14-17, 06:01 PM
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Originally Posted by eastside_purple View Post
I donít have a problem with any of that other than saying itís realistic it would produce the best NL offense in 10 years.
Would you agree that OPS is the best metric for valuing a hitter?
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  #274  
Old 11-14-17, 06:03 PM
Indiandad Indiandad is offline
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Originally Posted by eastside_purple View Post
He would likely only pry one valued prospect in return and a middle tier prospect.
The Reds won't trade him for that. They value him higher than that. It will take a better offer to get them to part with him.
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  #275  
Old 11-14-17, 06:13 PM
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Originally Posted by Indiandad View Post
The Reds won't trade him for that. They value him higher than that. It will take a better offer to get them to part with him.
Right, they wonít get one. Thatís my point.
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  #276  
Old 11-14-17, 06:17 PM
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Originally Posted by Indiandad View Post
Would you agree that OPS is the best metric for valuing a hitter?
Yeah, but i also understand small sample size applies to Winker and rookies like Senzel will likely struggle. If both played full time next year, Iíd guess their runs scored would be near 100 combined. That said, playing them is the right thing to do.
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  #277  
Old 11-14-17, 08:24 PM
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Originally Posted by eastside_purple View Post
Yeah, but i also understand small sample size applies to Winker and rookies like Senzel will likely struggle. If both played full time next year, Iíd guess their runs scored would be near 100 combined. That said, playing them is the right thing to do.
The 2008 Cubs had a team OPS .036 higher than the 2017 Reds.
Hamilton and Peraza combined for 1100 AB, nearly 25% of the team AB. They had a combined OPS of approximately .625 if Winker and Senzel perform at .750 OPS or better the Reds would have a comparable OPS to the last team to score 5.25 runs per game.
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  #278  
Old 11-14-17, 10:08 PM
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Originally Posted by Indiandad View Post
The 2008 Cubs had a team OPS .036 higher than the 2017 Reds.
Hamilton and Peraza combined for 1100 AB, nearly 25% of the team AB. They had a combined OPS of approximately .625 if Winker and Senzel perform at .750 OPS or better the Reds would have a comparable OPS to the last team to score 5.25 runs per game.
Well, Cozart would have to come back and everyone else would have to replicate their career high OPS numbers from last year to even come close to that. Thatís pretty unlikely.
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  #279  
Old 11-15-17, 08:42 AM
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Originally Posted by eastside_purple View Post
I donít have a problem with any of that other than saying itís realistic it would produce the best NL offense in 10 years.
And what do we know about teams with great offense in baseball??? It does not equate to wins.

Once again, I say this...catcher, shortstop, 2nd and centerfield - Defense first, offense second. Corner infield, corner outfield- hitter first, defense second.
Suarez has made himself into a very good 3rd baseman, he was an ok shortstop, why weaken yourself in two positions. We don't know if Nick Senzel can play at the major league level, offensively or defensively. Don't keep falling for the "backup QB is better" mentality. If Senzel is good enough, he'll find a spot.
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  #280  
Old 11-15-17, 11:29 AM
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Originally Posted by 14Red View Post
And what do we know about teams with great offense in baseball??? It does not equate to wins.

Once again, I say this...catcher, shortstop, 2nd and centerfield - Defense first, offense second. Corner infield, corner outfield- hitter first, defense second.
Suarez has made himself into a very good 3rd baseman, he was an ok shortstop, why weaken yourself in two positions. We don't know if Nick Senzel can play at the major league level, offensively or defensively. Don't keep falling for the "backup QB is better" mentality. If Senzel is good enough, he'll find a spot.
There has pretty much been no one in the organization or baseball in general who doubts Senzel can play at the major league level.

When you don't have reliable starting pitching then offense is the only way you get wins. We would be looking at 100+ losses this season without the type of offensive numbers the Reds put up this year. They were 2nd worst in baseball and worst in the NL but still had a better differential than several teams.
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  #281  
Old 11-15-17, 12:17 PM
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Originally Posted by 14Red View Post
And what do we know about teams with great offense in baseball??? It does not equate to wins.

Once again, I say this...catcher, shortstop, 2nd and centerfield - Defense first, offense second. Corner infield, corner outfield- hitter first, defense second.
Suarez has made himself into a very good 3rd baseman, he was an ok shortstop, why weaken yourself in two positions. We don't know if Nick Senzel can play at the major league level, offensively or defensively. Don't keep falling for the "backup QB is better" mentality. If Senzel is good enough, he'll find a spot.
Peraza has not been a good defensive SS. He was even worse at the plate in 2017. Maybe that changes this season, after all he is only 23.

Every scout, coach and GM that has seen Senzel agrees he has a Major League bat. Why would you keel in in the minors any more than 12 games next year?
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  #282  
Old 11-15-17, 12:36 PM
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Originally Posted by eastside_purple View Post
Well, Cozart would have to come back and everyone else would have to replicate their career high OPS numbers from last year to even come close to that. That’s pretty unlikely.
Maybe... Schebler showed when he is healthy he is a .900 OPS guy. Unfortunately he played with a bum shoulder for a month a did nothing. It is not unrealistic to think he could be a hundred points higher (.900) next season with good health.
Duvall needs more rest during the Dawg Days. His diabetes is contributing to his second half swoon. Give him appropriate rest and play Ervin a bit more and left field could be an .825 -.850 OPS position.

Aside from Votto this team is young and has a lot of upside.
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  #283  
Old 11-15-17, 03:45 PM
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Originally Posted by Indiandad View Post
Maybe... Schebler showed when he is healthy he is a .900 OPS guy. Unfortunately he played with a bum shoulder for a month a did nothing. It is not unrealistic to think he could be a hundred points higher (.900) next season with good health.
Duvall needs more rest during the Dawg Days. His diabetes is contributing to his second half swoon. Give him appropriate rest and play Ervin a bit more and left field could be an .825 -.850 OPS position.

Aside from Votto this team is young and has a lot of upside.
Good to know everyone is going to continue to post career high OPS numbers going forward!
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  #284  
Old 11-15-17, 04:22 PM
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Originally Posted by eastside_purple View Post
Good to know everyone is going to continue to post career high OPS numbers going forward!
Suarez, Barnhart, Gennett and Votto all had career high OPS in 2017. Which ones will regress and why?
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  #285  
Old 11-15-17, 04:42 PM
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Originally Posted by Taco MacArthur View Post
It's a message board. Let people discuss unrealistic scenarios, it changes absolutely nothing.
OK. Houston needs a closer. I think we should trade Iglesias and Peraza for Springer and Correa.

HEY THIS IS FUN!!!
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  #286  
Old 11-15-17, 05:26 PM
Monclova Steve Monclova Steve is offline
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And what do we know about teams with great offense in baseball??? It does not equate to wins.
Well, here is what we know about the top 8 MLB teams who scored the most runs.

They ALL made the playoffs.
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  #287  
Old 11-15-17, 05:32 PM
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Well, here is what we know about the top 8 MLB teams who scored the most runs.

They ALL made the playoffs.
Offense helps.... lol
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  #288  
Old 11-15-17, 05:45 PM
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Originally Posted by Indiandad View Post
Suarez, Barnhart, Gennett and Votto all had career high OPS in 2017. Which ones will regress and why?
Quite possibly all of them. Law of averages and regression to the mean. Also, how do you replace Cozartís production, which was obviously a blip and not sustainable?
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  #289  
Old 11-16-17, 07:55 AM
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Originally Posted by wolves82 View Post
OK. Houston needs a closer. I think we should trade Iglesias and Peraza for Springer and Correa.

HEY THIS IS FUN!!!
Again, that isn't what happened. It's not that difficult to follow along.

If you don't find it fun you could simply, you know, not read and not post.
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  #290  
Old 11-16-17, 10:09 AM
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#VottoMVP today is the day!
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  #291  
Old 11-16-17, 10:10 AM
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Originally Posted by Indiandad View Post
Suarez, Barnhart, Gennett and Votto all had career high OPS in 2017. Which ones will regress and why?
It would be hard pressed to think that Scooter will replicate his 2017. The back of his baseball card says so. Suarez and Barnhart are in the early stages of their careers, hard to tell with them. Joey's just phenominal.
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  #292  
Old 11-16-17, 01:59 PM
Monclova Steve Monclova Steve is offline
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Aaaah, the rose-colored glasses of the offseason, when -- looking ahead to 2018 -- nobody is going to have a bad year and no one will get injured (however, if they do, their substitute will come in and play like an All-Star).
Everyone will play at the level of their career high; and all the youngsters will break in and hit at least .300.
The Reds will of course -- with just a couple of minor tweaks -- will score more than 100 more runs than they did in 2017.
Nothing can possibly go wrong.
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  #293  
Old 11-16-17, 02:15 PM
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It would be hard pressed to think that Scooter will replicate his 2017. The back of his baseball card says so. Suarez and Barnhart are in the early stages of their careers, hard to tell with them. Joey's just phenominal.
The obvious answer (for regression) is Gennett. However he is entering his prime at 27. Tucker is 26 and clearly the Reds think he hasn't peaked yet (4 yr contract). Suarez is only 25 and has seen his OPS increase .175 since he broke into the bigs. Joey on the other hand is peaked out but everything about him says that if he is healthy he will perform at ridiculous levels.

Haven't we seen argument after argument from EP and others about how "they're young" they'll get better?

3 of the 4 players that had career years are young. Why won't they get better?

Schebler has shown he is legit when he is healthy and Duvall even with his second half swoon has posted .790, .795, .782 his last 3 seasons and he is only 28.

Replacing Cozart (.933 OPS) with Senzel might be a step down (.908 OPS in minors) but this team will significantly upgrade with Winker in the lineup every day and replacing Kivlehan with Ervin and if Mesoraco stays healthy he is an upgrade over Turner. That still leaves Peraza as a bench player/starting SS at 23. They need to add a veteran bench bat yet. Barring injury this offense should be very good.
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  #294  
Old 11-16-17, 02:20 PM
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Originally Posted by Monclova Steve View Post
Aaaah, the rose-colored glasses of the offseason, when -- looking ahead to 2018 -- nobody is going to have a bad year and no one will get injured (however, if they do, their substitute will come in and play like an All-Star).
Everyone will play at the level of their career high; and all the youngsters will break in and hit at least .300.
The Reds will of course -- with just a couple of minor tweaks -- will score more than 100 more runs than they did in 2017.
Nothing can possibly go wrong.
Well we have been told ad nauseam that these guys are young, they have to play, they'll get better. These young guys are pretty good. Why should we expect them to regress or even hold their production as they begin their prime years?

Rose colored glasses would be believing the young pitchers will all be studs next season.
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  #295  
Old 11-16-17, 03:49 PM
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Originally Posted by Indiandad View Post
Well we have been told ad nauseam that these guys are young, they have to play, they'll get better. These young guys are pretty good. Why should we expect them to regress or even hold their production as they begin their prime years?

Rose colored glasses would be believing the young pitchers will all be studs next season.
The whole idea of drafting and developing players means that we project them to perform at a high level. Not sure it's rose colored glasses. Now as we know most teams don't have 8 position players who all have career years the same year. Some are better than normal, some are worse than expected and some stay the same. Injuries certainly and always do make and impact.
Scooter Gennett was basically given away by the Brewers before last season because the Brewers wanted to play some young guys, and felt Gennett was expendable. The Brewers look a little silly now because Gennett had a great season last year, and I'm not sure they have their 2nd base position figured out. But even with that, they may have decided that they can save some money at the 2nd base position and Gennett, due to his years of service, is in a different salary level than they wanted to pay. I'd say last year was a major disappointment for the Reds in the starting young pitching department, other than Luis Castillo. Frankly, if Garrett, Romano, Reed had all perform as expected early last year, who knows if Castillo even gets a look. So there is some luck involved from time to time.
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  #296  
Old 11-16-17, 06:50 PM
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Originally Posted by Indiandad View Post
The obvious answer (for regression) is Gennett. However he is entering his prime at 27. Tucker is 26 and clearly the Reds think he hasn't peaked yet (4 yr contract). Suarez is only 25 and has seen his OPS increase .175 since he broke into the bigs. Joey on the other hand is peaked out but everything about him says that if he is healthy he will perform at ridiculous levels.

Haven't we seen argument after argument from EP and others about how "they're young" they'll get better?

3 of the 4 players that had career years are young. Why won't they get better?

Schebler has shown he is legit when he is healthy and Duvall even with his second half swoon has posted .790, .795, .782 his last 3 seasons and he is only 28.

Replacing Cozart (.933 OPS) with Senzel might be a step down (.908 OPS in minors) but this team will significantly upgrade with Winker in the lineup every day and replacing Kivlehan with Ervin and if Mesoraco stays healthy he is an upgrade over Turner. That still leaves Peraza as a bench player/starting SS at 23. They need to add a veteran bench bat yet. Barring injury this offense should be very good.
Pretty excited about the reds offense being the most productive in 10 yrs! I actually hope youíre right, despite your terrible track record so far.
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  #297  
Old 11-16-17, 07:02 PM
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Missed by 2 points for MVP. Extremely close vote
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  #298  
Old 11-17-17, 08:22 AM
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First of all, it's a great honor to be considered for the league MVP and to finish a close second is great. But Joey Votto just completed a historic season for the Reds, both offensively and defensively, and yet some writers simply can't separate their feelings between winning and losing to put him in. One voter actually voted Kris Bryant for 1st place?? A few voters put Votto 5th???

I would like to know exactly what more Votto could have done. It's MOST VALUABLE PLAYER, not TEAM. Votto can't help the other guys hit, he can't help the pitchers pitch. Baseball is the one team sport where one individual player has the least impact on a teams success, especially a position player.
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  #299  
Old 11-17-17, 08:59 AM
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Stanton!! Yes!!
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  #300  
Old 11-17-17, 11:58 AM
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trollboy73 proving once again that "Chicks dig the long ball".
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