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  #1  
Old 04-27-17, 11:42 AM
Arrogate Arrogate is offline
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Triple Crown

So that first Saturday in May is approaching fast. All the major preps have been completed and horses have been shipping in to Churchill and a few to Keeneland bc of bad weather. (Some are electing to train on the polytrack for bit).

It will be interesting to see how some train going into this race. The main horse I want to see train is McCraken considering his setbacks. Want to see how fit he looks. Another couple to watch train leading up are Gunnevera and Hence.

For the win spot I have it somewhat narrowed down to Gunnevera, Classic Empire, Girvin, Always Dreaming, Irish War Cry, Hence, McCraken, and Hence (super longshot)

Field looks really wide open with no horse really making s claim to be a big standout. Classic Empire may be the most talented and with his setbacks one has to wonder if he will be fit enough to win. Another thing about him is he loves Churchill but the huge crowd may get him a bit worked up and washed out.

Always Dreaming hails from the Todd Pletcher barn and looks to be supremely talented but Pletcher is an abysmal 1 for 43 in the Derby. He wins the prep races but never seems to run well in the Derby. Only win was with Super Saver over a sloppy track. However this colt looks to be the real deal and is a must play in wagering.

Pace looks to be fast with a couple speed horses and a lot of presser types.

Anybody like anyone? Or dislike?
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  #2  
Old 04-27-17, 04:42 PM
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Girvin has a quarter crack. May scratch if it doesn't heal. Final work moved to Saturday
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  #3  
Old 04-27-17, 05:09 PM
Neopolitan Neopolitan is offline
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I will probably bet on the Kentucky Derby despite not following horse racing at all because I'm a degenerate. Any horses you especially like? Any under the radar picks you think might have a chance to win?
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  #4  
Old 04-27-17, 06:46 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Neopolitan View Post
I will probably bet on the Kentucky Derby despite not following horse racing at all because I'm a degenerate. Any horses you especially like? Any under the radar picks you think might have a chance to win?
Still want to watch this last week of training. As far as a long shot I like Hence. The Sunland Derby usually isn't a strong prep race but this year it came back strong. Two horses out of it ran huge next out. Conquest Mp Money almost won the Arkansas Derby over likely favorite Classic Empire. He won't be in the derby bc he wasn't triple crown nominated and it would cost a ton to enter him but they are gunning for the Preakness. Irap is another who came out of that race and won the Bluegrass Derby which was his first win of his career.

This year is really wide open and with 20 horses it's are crapshoot and you need racing luck.

With that said if I had to guess who wins I would go with Classic Empire. (This could change). He had a foot abscess after the Holy Bull, wouldn't breeze at Palm Meadows training center, missed training time and still won the Arkansas Derby. I think he is looking to move forward off that race and improve greatly.

Always Dreaming is another who looks to be a strong contender with the way he won the Florida Derby and his strong gallop out. Should relish the distance.

Another who may have some odds and if the pace is hot he may win it, Gunnevera.

I will have different bets going and will use in the win spot for Pick 4s, 3s etc
Classic Empire
Always Dreaming
Irish War Cry
Hence
Gunnevera
Maybe McCraken
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  #5  
Old 04-28-17, 09:56 AM
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Classic Empire looked really good this morning along with Always Dreaming
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  #6  
Old 05-02-17, 08:34 PM
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Always Dreaming we acting up the last few days. Lot of energy in him. They switched exercise riders and draw reins to make him relax and focus

Top contenders for the win spot for me (no order)
Classic Empire
Always Dreaming
Gormley
Hence
Irish War Cry
Gunnevera
McCraken

These will be who I use for the win spot in multi race wagers.

Bombs I may use for trifectas and supers
Looking at Lee
Sonnether (maiden)
Irap
Hence
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  #7  
Old 05-03-17, 09:56 AM
clarkgriswold clarkgriswold is offline
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I'll root for the favorite, Classic Empire, to underperform. My trifecta is McCraken, Irish War Cry, Always Dreaming.
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  #8  
Old 05-03-17, 11:01 AM
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Anyone check the weather for Saturday, looks like there can be some rain and possibly a sloppy surface on tap. As for Classic Empire sorry for the ignorance but what has Julien Leparoux ever done to get this mount? I need a few more days to do some homework and get a feel for this race.

FYI I really think they need to limit this field so that there are not these potential huge traffic jams in key spots and claim level horses don't get in the way of legit contenders just so some syndicate gets the right to be behind the ropes in the paddock before the race.
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  #9  
Old 05-03-17, 01:35 PM
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Not sure what claiming level horses you are talking about. Some don't like the appeal of 20 horses and some do. I see both sides of it

Auggie if you are interested I can send you some files on this race. A colleague of mine buys this package that details each horse and gives betting strategies. It is something to look at

Last edited by Arrogate; 05-03-17 at 01:49 PM.
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  #10  
Old 05-03-17, 01:39 PM
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Also Julien has ridden him in every race so far except for the Hopeful and he dumped Irad Ortiz at starting gate. He is Mark Casse's go to rider. They have a strong history together especially at Keeneland and Churchill. Julien is a top pilot and Casse isn't going to change riders before the Derby, continuity is important, and he has done a good job managing a tough horse to ride

Of the top jockeys Castello spurned Pletcher is riding Gunnevera, Velazquez is riding Always Dreaming, Mike Smith is on Girvin (bc Baffert doesn't have a derby horse), Bejarano and Stevens didn't get mounts (wear coast horses came back weak) and the main west coast threat, Gormley is ridden by Espinoza.

The best jockey in North America, Castellano still doesn't have a derby win
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  #11  
Old 05-03-17, 01:46 PM
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Notable horses and their post position

Unlucky 1 hole goes to Looking at Lee
5 Always Dreaming
7 Girvin
10 Gunnevera
14 CE
15 McCraken
17 Irish War Cry
18 Gormley
19 Practical Joke
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  #12  
Old 05-03-17, 01:59 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Arrogate View Post
Not sure what claiming level horses you are talking about. Some don't like the appeal of 20 horses and some do. I see both sides of it

Auggie if you are interested I can send you some files on this race. A colleague of mine buys this package that details each horse and gives betting strategies. It is something to look at
I know there are no claiming horses, I was just be a jerk because I am not a fan of the large field. Conversely the Belmont sometimes has only 5 in the race and that huge track looks so empty. Could you see a 400 yard dash at the Olympics where there are 2 athletes in each lane and the best runners could be in lane 8 with guys that have no chance in land 4?
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  #13  
Old 05-04-17, 12:17 PM
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Biblical rain is falling over the Miss/Ohio valley so you have to think that things are going to be very sloppy this Saturday. Classic Empire has raced on a wet track at Churchill, may make him even more attractive at the top of a ticket. Will change a few things at how I look at this thing.
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  #14  
Old 05-04-17, 12:48 PM
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Wondering if they will seal the track the night before? Supposed to rain throughout the day?
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  #15  
Old 05-04-17, 12:49 PM
clarkgriswold clarkgriswold is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Auggie View Post
Biblical rain is falling over the Miss/Ohio valley so you have to think that things are going to be very sloppy this Saturday. Classic Empire has raced on a wet track at Churchill, may make him even more attractive at the top of a ticket. Will change a few things at how I look at this thing.
Looks like the rain is going to continue there through Saturday morning. That track drains fairly well as I recall, but it could still be a little of a mess from that much rain. I'd better find a mudder (or a mudder whose mother was a mudder).
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Old 05-04-17, 12:54 PM
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Originally Posted by Arrogate View Post
Wondering if they will seal the track the night before? Supposed to rain throughout the day?
Looks like a half inch rain today then on and off rain through Saturday morning. I wonder if sealing Friday night, after the Oaks, would do much good.

I'm off to figure out how to make horse track tarps.
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Old 05-04-17, 02:55 PM
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Talk about an expensive tarp. Usually sealing can do a pretty good job. It's amazing over the course of rave day how much they can do to influence the track and track bias.

I'm sure it will be public knowledge what they decide to do. If it is sealed and it doesn't rain much during Saturday it will most likely be dry. Again I don't know how much rain they are getting.

Racing has been delayed today due to a network outage.
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  #18  
Old 05-04-17, 03:00 PM
Taco MacArthur Taco MacArthur is offline
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Turpin, are you going? Just scored free tickets
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  #19  
Old 05-04-17, 03:01 PM
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Any picks for the Oaks? Looks to be a fast pace. Can Paradise Woods repeat that crazy effort st Santa Anita? She will likely be pressured on the front end by Miss Sky Warrior. Abel Talsman should have plenty of pace to run into. Salty could be a surprise horse to run huge.
Playing against Farrell, winner of 4 stakes races straighy. She has ran impressive but the competition seems to be lower in those Fairgrounds races.

Who do you all like for the Oaks?

What about a Derby top 5?
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Old 05-04-17, 03:01 PM
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This will be the first year in a long time I don't go. Got a lot of work in Texas.

You going Derby Day? Infield or are you living the high life? Ever been? It's so much fun.
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Old 05-04-17, 03:07 PM
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If anyone is betting on Oaks or Derby Day I can send you the Timeform package for both days and the Super Screener package for Derby Day.

I am going to be throwing down a significant amount of money on a horse in the race after the Oaks. Hopefully will be a big ticket day so I can pump more money into the Derby
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  #22  
Old 05-04-17, 03:09 PM
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Also if you are interested in Thorograph I have that as well
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Old 05-04-17, 07:31 PM
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Timeform's Oaks day package just released. Also Super Screener has updated as well. If anyone is interested shoot me a PM.
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Old 05-05-17, 06:48 AM
Taco MacArthur Taco MacArthur is offline
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This will be the first year in a long time I don't go. Got a lot of work in Texas.

You going Derby Day? Infield or are you living the high life? Ever been? It's so much fun.
Bummer, man.

Yessir. We got the high life. Apparently the girlfriend's friend's family bred American Pharaoh and that who gave us the tickets. But I've never been, I'm pretty excited for this.
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  #25  
Old 05-05-17, 08:53 AM
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She Egyptian lol

Ahmed Zayat was the breeder/owner. Punch his son Justin and call him a tool for me
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Old 05-05-17, 02:13 PM
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Crushing it today. Huge inside speed today.

Track will be dry tmrw by derby time, it will be sealed and well taken care of.
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Old 05-05-17, 02:16 PM
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Have two pick 4s that end in the Oaks

1,2,10,11/3,4,6,7,10,12/1/4,10
1,2,10/3,4,6,7,10,12/1,4,6,7/4

Really trying to hammer the race right after the Oaks with Minnie Blip. Got some info on that one
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  #28  
Old 05-05-17, 03:46 PM
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Busted in the second leg with a 63 dollar horse.
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Old 05-05-17, 04:05 PM
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Have family commits tomorrow so I cannot post here; my early thoughts as of now >

Girvin-Win Slot

Gormley & Looking At Lee boxed w/ Girvin for the Tri. Subject to change tomorrow when I see what they look like when they get a whiff of that big crowd.
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Old 05-05-17, 08:18 PM
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I was on Girvin until the change of training for him. When forced to split hairs that was enough for me. Best of luck man

Not sure if you know this but the trainer, Joe Sharp, is married to former jockey Rosie Napravnik
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