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  #1  
Old 05-19-17, 01:31 PM
Yappi Yappi is offline
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Fossil-fuel vehicles will vanish in 8 years in ‘death spiral’ for oil and big autos

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No more petrol or diesel cars, buses, or trucks will be sold anywhere in the world within eight years. The entire market for land transport will switch to electrification, leading to a collapse of oil prices and the demise of the petroleum industry as we have known it for a century.

This is the futuristic forecast by Stanford University economist Tony Seba. His report, with the deceptively bland title Rethinking Transportation 2020-2030, has gone viral in green circles and is causing spasms of anxiety in the established industries.

Seba’s premise is that people will stop driving altogether. They will switch en masse to self-drive electric vehicles (EVs) that are ten times cheaper to run than fossil-based cars, with a near-zero marginal cost of fuel and an expected lifespan of 1 million miles.

Only nostalgics will cling to the old habit of car ownership. The rest will adapt to vehicles on demand. It will become harder to find a petrol station, spares, or anybody to fix the 2,000 moving parts that bedevil the internal combustion engine. Dealers will disappear by 2024.
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http://www.financialpost.com/m/wp/ne...g-the-industry
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  #2  
Old 05-19-17, 01:33 PM
Neopolitan Neopolitan is offline
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crusaders just finished
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  #3  
Old 05-19-17, 01:52 PM
fish82 fish82 is offline
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Originally Posted by Neopolitan View Post
crusaders just finished
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Old 05-19-17, 01:53 PM
fish82 fish82 is offline
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It'll obviously happen eventually, but 8 years is a bit overly optimistic...it's 25-30 years away at minimum.
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Old 05-19-17, 01:57 PM
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He's definitely enthusiastic, I'll give him that. But cars aren't just transportation, they're status symbols. People will not drop car ownership as easily as he's hoping.
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Old 05-19-17, 05:57 PM
Sykotyk Sykotyk is offline
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I personally don't think any industry should be 'saved' just because we already have it. Horse breeders, trainers, etc didn't rail against the automobile because it would put them out of work. Nor do I think the petro industry should if a mass switch to electric cars (due to prices/convenience/etc) were to make it the preferable option.

Mass produced electricity is much more efficient than hundreds of thousands of individual combustion engines with verying degrees of conservation of that energy toward the actual use of propelling the vehicle.

The big issue still is, however, the environmental costs of the batteries needed to power said electric vehicles.
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Old 05-19-17, 06:53 PM
nutsnbolts nutsnbolts is offline
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An economist?
His comparison to cameras is far-fetched. Digital cameras made it easy for consumers to take and use pictures. Electric cars only make it less convenient for consumers. And a lot of his theory is based upon costs falling - a lot.

What about all the collectors? Will they be able to get fuel? Will collections of classic cars become worthless?

Even if nothing but electric vehicles are sold in eight years, how long before gas is no longer produced and distributed? Until the agricultural industry goes away from gas and diesel there will still be a lot of demand.
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  #8  
Old 05-19-17, 07:37 PM
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eastside_purple eastside_purple is offline
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I think a great asteroid will wipe out the fossil fuel vehicles from earth.
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Old 05-20-17, 09:38 AM
queencitybuckeye queencitybuckeye is offline
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Not totally buying that all of the increased demand can be met solely by the peak/non-peak demand gap, but otherwise, what's not to like?
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Old 05-20-17, 10:55 AM
chs1971 chs1971 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sykotyk View Post
I personally don't think any industry should be 'saved' just because we already have it. Horse breeders, trainers, etc didn't rail against the automobile because it would put them out of work.
Yes they did.
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