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  #1  
Old 09-22-18, 12:37 PM
simkon simkon is offline
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Division III Region 9: After Week 5

Harbin Rankings After Week 5
1 5-0 Canfield 10.8000
2 4-1 East 10.6000
3 4-1 Aurora 10.5000
4 4-1 Buckeye 10.4000
5 5-0 West Holmes 9.5000
6 5-0 Kenston 9.3500
7 5-0 Notre Dame-Cathedral Latin 9.1714
8 4-1 Marlington 9.1454
9 4-1 Ravenna 7.5000
10 4-1 West Branch 7.0500
11 3-2 Revere 6.7000
12 4-1 Norton 6.5500
13t 2-3 Tallmadge 5.5500
13t 2-3 Chardon 5.5500
13t 3-2 St Vincent-St Mary 5.5500
16 2-3 Alliance 5.5000
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  #2  
Old 09-22-18, 12:39 PM
simkon simkon is offline
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Drew's Region 9 Rankings
1. St Vincent-St Mary (3-2)
2. Canfield (5-0)
3. Notre Dame-Cathedral Latin (5-0)
4. East (4-1)
5. Aurora (4-1)
6. Kenston (5-0)
7. Marlington (4-1)
8. Louisville (2-3)
9. Lake Catholic (3-2)
10. Revere (3-2)
11. West Holmes (5-0)
12. Chardon (2-3)
13. Alliance (2-3)
14. Ravenna (4-1)
15. Buckeye (4-1)
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  #3  
Old 09-22-18, 12:42 PM
simkon simkon is offline
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Region 9 Projections
1. Aurora (8-2) 28.10
2. Canfield (9-1) 27.75
3. Kenston (9-1) 25.65
4. East (9-1) 25.10
5. Buckeye (9-1) 24.90
6. Marlington (8-2) 22.03
7. West Holmes (8-2) 21.25
8. Notre Dame-Cathedral Latin (8-2) 20.83
-----------------------------------------------------
9. Ravenna (8-2) 20.75
10. Revere (6-4) 19.50
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  #4  
Old 09-22-18, 12:44 PM
simkon simkon is offline
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Playoff Probabilities
Strong contenders (80-98%)
1. Canfield (5-0) 98% (bubble if 7-3), 89% home
2. Buckeye (4-1) 93% (bubble if 7-3), 44% home
3. Kenston (5-0) 91% (need 8-2), 66% home
4. Aurora (4-1) 90% (bubble if 6-4), 67% home
5. East (4-1) 86% (need 8-2), 35% home

Contenders (20-79%)
6. Marlington (4-1) 77% (need 8-2), 33% home
7. West Holmes (5-0) 74% (need 8-2), 37% home
8. Notre Dame-Cathedral Latin (5-0) 60% (bubble if 8-2), 16% home
(Top 8 earn a playoff berth)
9. Ravenna (4-1) 46% (bubble if 8-2), 9% home
10. Revere (3-2) 29% (need 7-3), 8% home
11. Norton (4-1) 21% (need 9-1), 2% home
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  #5  
Old 09-22-18, 12:46 PM
simkon simkon is offline
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Regional Championship Probabilities
Canfield (5-0) 35%
Aurora (4-1) 17%
East (4-1) 16%
Notre Dame-Cathedral Latin (5-0) 11%
Kenston (5-0) 11%
Marlington (4-1) 6%
St Vincent-St Mary (3-2) 2%
West Holmes (5-0) 2%
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  #6  
Old 09-22-18, 12:50 PM
simkon simkon is offline
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State Championship Probabilities
Trotwood-Madison (3-2) 37%
Canfield (5-0) 16%
Bishop Hartley (3-2) 11%
Archbishop Alter (4-1) 6%
Glenville (3-2) 6%
Sandusky (5-0) 4%
Aurora (4-1) 4%
East (4-1) 4%

St Francis DeSales (3-2) 3%
Notre Dame-Cathedral Latin (5-0) 3%
Chaminade Julienne (5-0) 2%
Sheridan (5-0) 2%
Kenston (5-0) 2%

Region 9 Teams in Bold
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  #7  
Old 09-22-18, 12:53 PM
simkon simkon is offline
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Division III Rankings
1. Trotwood-Madison (3-2 D3 R12)
2. St Vincent-St Mary (3-2 D3 R9)
3. Canfield (5-0 D3 R9)
4. Bishop Hartley (3-2 D3 R11)
5. Archbishop Alter (4-1 D3 R12)
6. Notre Dame-Cathedral Latin (5-0 D3 R9)
7. East (4-1 D3 R9)
8. Aurora (4-1 D3 R9)
9. St Francis DeSales (3-2 D3 R11)
10. Glenville (3-2 D3 R10)

Region 9 Teams in Bold
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  #8  
Old 09-22-18, 02:39 PM
sportster4321 sportster4321 is offline
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Confused why pastuer has svsm ahead of canfield in the power rankings but canfield as the favorite to win the region?
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  #9  
Old 09-22-18, 02:47 PM
Bucksfan1 Bucksfan1 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sportster4321 View Post
Confused why pastuer has svsm ahead of canfield in the power rankings but canfield as the favorite to win the region?
Because stvm is a better team (power ranking) but most likely isnít going to make the playoffs due to their schedule.
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  #10  
Old 09-22-18, 02:47 PM
kingpin2010 kingpin2010 is online now
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sportster4321 View Post
Confused why pastuer has svsm ahead of canfield in the power rankings but canfield as the favorite to win the region?
Because ST V needs a ton of help to just get in the playoffs. Most of his simulations has them not making it
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  #11  
Old 09-22-18, 02:52 PM
sportster4321 sportster4321 is offline
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Oh gotcha
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  #12  
Old 09-22-18, 09:40 PM
Lep2002 Lep2002 is offline
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STVM is a state title contender that probably misses the playoffs. It’s a shame.
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  #13  
Old 09-22-18, 09:51 PM
Yappi Yappi is offline
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It will be interesting to see if they make it in at 8-2. At 7-3, it looks unlikely. They have a few tough games left but I wouldn't be surprised to see them win the rest.
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  #14  
Old 09-23-18, 08:01 PM
FirestoneFan FirestoneFan is online now
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Send a message via Yahoo to FirestoneFan
SVSM
NDCL
East
Canfield
Kenston
Aurora
Marlington
Revere
W Holmes
Louisville
also Buckeye, Lake Catholic, Norton, Ravenna, Chardon, Alliance, W Branch
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  #15  
Old 09-24-18, 07:39 AM
Irish60 Irish60 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bucksfan1 View Post
Because stvm is a better team (power ranking) but most likely isnít going to make the playoffs due to their schedule.
I remember a few years ago, St. Ignatius was 6-4, or something like that, and found themselves on the outside of the playoffs looking in; even though a 4-5 Cleveland Heights team made the playoffs. It's just when the teams that you beat all have down years, the computer points aren't there. Sometimes it happens. When you looked at the schedule at the beginning of the year, you'd figure 8-2 would have been a shoo in for the playoffs. But with Benedictine, Mooney, Glen Oak, Ursuline, etc. not having their typical years (and all at the same time!), the math works against you. It is what it is.
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  #16  
Old 09-24-18, 07:45 AM
Knights Watch Knights Watch is offline
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Heck one year that St. V won the title, they got smoked by Mooney in the regular season, who was in their region but Mooney didn't make the playoffs.
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  #17  
Old 09-24-18, 07:51 AM
sportster4321 sportster4321 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Knights Watch View Post
Heck one year that St. V won the title, they got smoked by Mooney in the regular season, who was in their region but Mooney didn't make the playoffs.
True but to be fair Mooney only won 3 games that year if you're referencing 2012.
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  #18  
Old 09-24-18, 07:55 AM
Knights Watch Knights Watch is offline
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Crazy to have such a rough schedule that you beat the state champs in your division by like 4 scores but never get to make the playoffs.
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  #19  
Old 09-24-18, 07:58 AM
sportster4321 sportster4321 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Knights Watch View Post
Crazy to have such a rough schedule that you beat the state champs in your division by like 4 scores but never get to make the playoffs.

Yea that's wild. And SVSM was loaded that year too!
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  #20  
Old 09-24-18, 08:48 AM
tribefan23 tribefan23 is offline
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Everyone is talking about SVSM missing the playoffs: NDCL could be in the same boat. Everyone they've played this year is grossly underachieving and not helping with points. At this point, NDCL needs to go 9-1 to get in (and I think they could be borderline still at 9-1). They need the points from beating Padua this week to have a shot at getting in and then hope they don't lay an egg against Benny or LC. If they lose to Padua, they miss the playoffs. It sucks because NDCL has one of the best teams they've ever had this year.
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  #21  
Old 09-24-18, 02:33 PM
SeeYaSometime SeeYaSometime is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Knights Watch View Post
Crazy to have such a rough schedule that you beat the state champs in your division by like 4 scores but never get to make the playoffs.
I believe that loss was the catalyst that propelled the remainder of the season and drive to the state championship for SVSM.
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  #22  
Old 09-24-18, 02:35 PM
SeeYaSometime SeeYaSometime is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tribefan23 View Post
Everyone is talking about SVSM missing the playoffs: NDCL could be in the same boat. Everyone they've played this year is grossly underachieving and not helping with points. At this point, NDCL needs to go 9-1 to get in (and I think they could be borderline still at 9-1). They need the points from beating Padua this week to have a shot at getting in and then hope they don't lay an egg against Benny or LC. If they lose to Padua, they miss the playoffs. It sucks because NDCL has one of the best teams they've ever had this year.
Both teams need to drop Walsh Jesuit from their respective schedule. No help in L2 points for several years. What do you think?
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  #23  
Old 09-24-18, 03:37 PM
fromthe3 fromthe3 is offline
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I don't feel bad for parochial schools. They play by different rules. St. V and Hoban can get kids from Akron, Barberton, and Wadsworth etc....

I would never schedule them.

Even Hudson and Massillon Jackson (very rich with all the resources in the world) can only get kids from their district.

In Indiana and some other states, there is a separate tournament for parochial schools.

I like that there is a catholic league.

The parochial schools feed off the inner-city schools. Suburban schools wont play them. They are smart
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  #24  
Old 09-24-18, 04:32 PM
clarkgriswold clarkgriswold is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SeeYaSometime View Post
Both teams need to drop Walsh Jesuit from their respective schedule. No help in L2 points for several years. What do you think?
I'd hate to see them drop such a rivalry.

It's just an odd year with the teams on the schedule having down years.
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  #25  
Old 09-24-18, 04:37 PM
clarkgriswold clarkgriswold is offline
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Originally Posted by fromthe3 View Post
I don't feel bad for parochial schools. They play by different rules. St. V and Hoban can get kids from Akron, Barberton, and Wadsworth etc....

I would never schedule them.

Even Hudson and Massillon Jackson (very rich with all the resources in the world) can only get kids from their district.

In Indiana and some other states, there is a separate tournament for parochial schools.

I like that there is a catholic league.

The parochial schools feed off the inner-city schools. Suburban schools wont play them. They are smart
What do you think of open enrollment with the publics? One school in Summit County took in over 600 students from the Akron Public School system in 2016- 2017. That's more than any private is taking.
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  #26  
Old 09-24-18, 05:29 PM
Paydirt Paydirt is offline
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Probably more than all of the privates combined. It was the kiss of death for Coventry. Sent them into fiscal emergency.
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  #27  
Old 09-24-18, 06:03 PM
clarkgriswold clarkgriswold is offline
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Originally Posted by Paydirt View Post
Probably more than all of the privates combined. It was the kiss of death for Coventry. Sent them into fiscal emergency.
In 2015, 782 students out of 2,076 came into the district through open enrollment!
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  #28  
Old 09-24-18, 06:08 PM
fromthe3 fromthe3 is offline
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If Coventry took in 600 kids, that is probably k-12. They are division 3 there is no way got 600 high school kids.

Obviously if it has killed Coventry, they are going about it not as effective as Hoban and St. V.

Hoban and St. V get the top kids and Coventry gets the left overs.
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  #29  
Old 09-24-18, 06:12 PM
fromthe3 fromthe3 is offline
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All of the Parochial kids k-12 are open enrollment. That is 100% compared to Coventry's 25%
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  #30  
Old 09-24-18, 06:51 PM
CoventryTrackXCguy CoventryTrackXCguy is offline
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Open enrollment is different then the private schools. In the private schools, parents pay 10-15k a year, and that covers the cost of educating that child. In open enrollment, the students open enroll at no cost, but the state pays said school district 6000 a year, whereas it costs around 9000 to educate said child. So ultimately, a school potentially loses 3k per year on an open enrollment student, once the district is using open enrollment beyond filling out empty desks.

This was a big issue here in Coventry, where in following Coventry's move to fiscal emergency, the state released a report stating that Coventry Local Schools were losing over 1 million a year on open enrollment. Now, the Coventry Schools contest that figure, stating that that figure partly comes from claiming that any cuts to Coventry's students would result in the elimination of certain staff positions that actually cant be eliminated. I agree with that, and that while I certainly think we are losing money via open enrollment, it is certainly not to the tune of 1 million. I think Coventry will be fine if they trim back OE to being roughly 400 students, with the majority of reductions occurring at the elementary school, and the high school remaining mostly untouched. Regardless, the new school board is taking steps in that direction.

Coventry's fiscal problems are more complex however then open enrollment. The reality is that the state funding formula misrepresents the socioeconomic status of our district. It misrepresent a blue collar community as being a very wealthy community. As a result Coventry receives only $2000 per in district student, which is less then Green, and indeed less then many school districts in our county. This makes it so that Coventry has to rely on levies more then it should, and the taxpayers of our district have to shoulder a greater burden then they should. This as you can imagine has lead to some pretty divisive issues showing up on our local ballots.

At any rate, the way things currently stand, Coventry is trending in the right direction fiscally, and expects to be released from fiscal emergency within the next year.

Last edited by CoventryTrackXCguy; 09-24-18 at 07:20 PM.
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