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  #1  
Old 03-12-19, 11:25 PM
bucksman bucksman is offline
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Enrollment cut analysis -- divisions for the next two years

I did this very quickly based on the enrollment numbers posted to the OHSAA site.
Following caveats: (1) some of the schools have "TBD", I used last cycle's number for those schools (2) all schools numbers are subject to changes through appeal

Additional caveats - I used the entry grid for most of the sectionals, so if there were scratches that took a team from 7+ on the grid to LESS THAN seven, that would impact the team count.

In my estimate, I came up with the following:
364-up is DI
201-363 is DII
200-down is DIII

Some notables:
Olentangy Berlin goes up to DI, which was expected
West Carrollton would go back up to DI
D1/D2 bubble - Vandalia Butler, Kenston, Alliance, Ashland, Western Brown, Bowling Green, Goshen
Copley would drop to the top of DII in this scenario, as would Dover, Mansfield Madison, and Tri-Valley; Aurora would remain in DII
Rossford goes up to DII, so does Fairless
D2/D3 bubble - (D2) Keystone, Bethel-Tate, Blanchester, New Lexington, Lake Catholic, Milan Edison (D3) Utica, Springfield Shawnee, Benjamin Logan, Indian Lake, Oak Harbor
Ravenna Southeast and Amanda-Clearcreek drop to DIII, as does Otsego
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  #2  
Old 03-12-19, 11:38 PM
bucksman bucksman is offline
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In looking at the ratios ...

D1 is looking at a very similar composition with 6 NE sectionals, 4 all-C sectionals, 1 all-NW sectional, 4 SW sectionals, and a mixed C/NW sectional -> C/E/SE = 4.5, NE = 6.1, NW = 1.37, SW = 4.03

D2 should give the following: 5 NE (5.1 ratio) sectionals, 3 NW (3.1 ratio) sectionals, 3 (3.2 ratio) SW sectionals, and then there's five other sectionals to divvy out with the projected ratio being 4.6 between the C-E-SE

D3 should give the following: a mixed C-E-SE district (ratio is 4.1), divvy up the sectionals as necessary; 4 NE (4.34 ratio) sectionals, 5 NW (4.9 ratio) sectionals, 3 SW (2.6 ratio) sectionals. Could see some shifting around, but I think that's what should happen.

For those wondering how "ratio" is computed:
take the number of "teams" in a district geography divide by the number of total "teams" in the division, then multiply by 16
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  #3  
Old 03-13-19, 10:12 AM
Cjlewis01 Cjlewis01 is offline
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So with Jefferson Area and Ravenna southeast moving to Garfield Heights more than likely do they just add them or is there a team on the border who gets moved to a different district?
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  #4  
Old 03-13-19, 10:30 AM
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Mr. Slippery Mr. Slippery is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cjlewis01 View Post
So with Jefferson Area and Ravenna southeast moving to Garfield Heights more than likely do they just add them or is there a team on the border who gets moved to a different district?
Nobody would get shifted around at the district level, but a team or two could get shifted to a different sectional within the NE. I presume Jefferson would go to Beachwood, and Southeast would go to Rootstown for sectionals. With Rootstown already having the most schools from this past tournament, the combo of Fairless moving up to DII and adding Southeast in at Rootstown could push Tuslaw and maybe another team to be assigned to the Northwestern sectional.
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  #5  
Old 03-13-19, 10:53 AM
bulldowg_Wrestling19 bulldowg_Wrestling19 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cjlewis01 View Post
So with Jefferson Area and Ravenna southeast moving to Garfield Heights more than likely do they just add them or is there a team on the border who gets moved to a different district?
Isn't Jefferson D2?
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  #6  
Old 03-13-19, 12:37 PM
hjohn6331 hjohn6331 is offline
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Lake Catholic

Please tell me we are not dropping to d3, Iíve stayed away from the admissions numbers but what is the situation?
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  #7  
Old 03-13-19, 01:10 PM
Cjlewis01 Cjlewis01 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bulldowg_Wrestling19 View Post
Isn't Jefferson D2?
I saw the new numbers at 188 for the next cycle.
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  #8  
Old 03-13-19, 01:29 PM
pinem07 pinem07 is offline
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Do you think any of the teams moving down or bubble teams would change the landscape of each division? Like a top 10 team at the state tourney or make the state duals
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  #9  
Old 03-13-19, 01:45 PM
eyes r burning eyes r burning is offline
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Ashland dropping would make big differences in those smaller divisions. I think they return everyone minus Bever. Lake Catholic dropping could be big too, but I am not sure what they return.
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  #10  
Old 03-13-19, 01:45 PM
szerszen szerszen is offline
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From looking at that list, Ashland would be a good D2 school if they make the drop. They had a lot of success in D2 before moving up to D1 the last couple of years.

If New Lexington dropped to D3, I think they would be good enough to make the state duals and score a little higher at the individual state tournament.
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  #11  
Old 03-13-19, 01:49 PM
bulldowg_Wrestling19 bulldowg_Wrestling19 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cjlewis01 View Post
I saw the new numbers at 188 for the next cycle.
They had 230 at the last count. Down 42 males in just 2 years?
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  #12  
Old 03-13-19, 01:59 PM
wrestlfan wrestlfan is offline
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zane trace to d3?
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  #13  
Old 03-13-19, 02:40 PM
Cjlewis01 Cjlewis01 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bulldowg_Wrestling19 View Post
They had 230 at the last count. Down 42 males in just 2 years?
Am I reading them wrong?
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  #14  
Old 03-13-19, 03:11 PM
bulldowg_Wrestling19 bulldowg_Wrestling19 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cjlewis01 View Post
Am I reading them wrong?
No, I just checked, you're correct. That seems like a huge drop off to me.
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  #15  
Old 03-13-19, 03:16 PM
bulldowg_Wrestling19 bulldowg_Wrestling19 is offline
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The more I look at the numbers, every school I compare has went down from the last count. I know people are having less kids/moving south, but is the entire state shrinking?


2018: https://ohsaa.org/school-resources/school-enrollment

2016: https://ohsaa.org/School-Resources/S...ures-2017-2019
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  #16  
Old 03-13-19, 03:33 PM
Cjlewis01 Cjlewis01 is offline
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Another coach was telling me that an open enrollee counts as two?

Is that correct?
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  #17  
Old 03-13-19, 03:34 PM
bulldowg_Wrestling19 bulldowg_Wrestling19 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cjlewis01 View Post
Another coach was telling me that an open enrollee counts as two?

Is that correct?
For Competitive Balance it can, yes.
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Old 03-13-19, 03:38 PM
bucksman bucksman is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cjlewis01 View Post
Another coach was telling me that an open enrollee counts as two?

Is that correct?
Wrestling does NOT have "competitive balance" rules in play. It is just straight enrollment.
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  #19  
Old 03-13-19, 03:40 PM
bulldowg_Wrestling19 bulldowg_Wrestling19 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bucksman View Post
Wrestling does NOT have "competitive balance" rules in play. It is just straight enrollment.
Correct. I was answering his question that said coach asked.
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  #20  
Old 03-13-19, 04:00 PM
Cjlewis01 Cjlewis01 is offline
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Thanks for the info
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  #21  
Old 03-30-19, 12:55 AM
bucksman bucksman is offline
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The final enrollment numbers were approved.

I have the D1 cut still being right around 363, could go up to 364 or down to 361

I have the D2 cut being at either 200 or 199. That is going to be CRUCIAL, as Milan Edison is at 199; if they are in D3 for the next two year cycle there is a state title possibility.

Looks like Lake Catholic will sneak into the bottom of D2.
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  #22  
Old 03-31-19, 08:09 AM
ZMonster ZMonster is offline
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D1 is a mess. With the cut off number dropping you could almost have a school on the top end have as many boys in one grade as a school on the bottom end has in the entire school.
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  #23  
Old 03-31-19, 11:49 AM
cosh wrestling dad cosh wrestling dad is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ZMonster View Post
D1 is a mess. With the cut off number dropping you could almost have a school on the top end have as many boys in one grade as a school on the bottom end has in the entire school.
This seems like an odd statement to me. D1 guys are always the ones that say we only need 1 division! It's the small D2and D3 schools that are usually concerned about where everyone is going.
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  #24  
Old 03-31-19, 12:11 PM
Wrestling245 Wrestling245 is offline
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Can you post a link to the figures?
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  #25  
Old 03-31-19, 12:18 PM
Jim Behrens Jim Behrens is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cosh wrestling dad View Post
This seems like an odd statement to me. D1 guys are always the ones that say we only need 1 division! It's the small D2and D3 schools that are usually concerned about where everyone is going.
Glad to hear that I am not the only one that could not figure that out.
BTW, if he is trying to say that we need another division, please NO.
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Old 03-31-19, 12:43 PM
350zjk 350zjk is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jim Behrens View Post
Glad to hear that I am not the only one that could not figure that out.
BTW, if he is trying to say that we need another division, please NO.
Sometimes I find myself leaning to having only 2 divisions.
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  #27  
Old 03-31-19, 01:09 PM
Jim Behrens Jim Behrens is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 350zjk View Post
Sometimes I find myself leaning to having only 2 divisions.
I think a very persuasive argument can be made for having two divisions.
Obviously many people will disagree but the numbers support it.
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  #28  
Old 03-31-19, 02:20 PM
hjohn6331 hjohn6331 is offline
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Lake Catholic

Quote:
Originally Posted by bucksman View Post
The final enrollment numbers were approved.

I have the D1 cut still being right around 363, could go up to 364 or down to 361

I have the D2 cut being at either 200 or 199. That is going to be CRUCIAL, as Milan Edison is at 199; if they are in D3 for the next two year cycle there is a state title possibility.

Looks like Lake Catholic will sneak into the bottom of D2.
It looks like we have 203 (d3 199) but it doesn't have the incoming freshman numbers. I know last year was one of smallest classes but I think we have several more this year. Can someone verify this, the admin has been tight lipped.
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  #29  
Old 03-31-19, 06:10 PM
mrfootball mrfootball is offline
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Does anyone know if Dover is D1 or D2 and if fairless is D2 or D3
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  #30  
Old 03-31-19, 07:28 PM
CoachPeck CoachPeck is offline
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364-1299 (Mason)
201-363 is DII
200-down is DIII

We (Vandalia-Butler) have 950 students in grades 9-12 & we are D-1 in everything but football. Our magical number is 365!

Iím all for one division in wrestling with a 32 man bracket at sectional, district, and state.

Just my opinion.
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