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  #3721  
Old 09-23-18, 04:15 PM
Indiandad Indiandad is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by troyboy73 View Post
Adam Duvall/ last 30 games 5 for 45 .111 average 0 HR 0 Rbi. Overall hitting .191
Who cares?
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  #3722  
Old 09-24-18, 06:57 AM
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Thanks for the Duval update Troy.
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  #3723  
Old 09-24-18, 07:12 AM
Monclova Steve Monclova Steve is offline
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Originally Posted by eastside_purple View Post
Thanks for the Duval update Troy.
On 2nd thought, I agree.
What can it hurt?
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  #3724  
Old 09-24-18, 08:29 AM
14Red 14Red is offline
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Frazier, Bruce, Cozart, Duvall...pretty much anyone who's left the Reds recently has gone downhill. Who knows if Duvall is even in baseball in the next few years.
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  #3725  
Old 09-24-18, 08:30 AM
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Pretty tough commentary from Marty Saturday, but probably some merit. He said with the offensive swoon in September, it appears many of the Reds have mailed it in for the season. That's just a horrible way to end a season.
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  #3726  
Old 09-24-18, 08:53 AM
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Originally Posted by Indiandad View Post
They are allowed to trade for TOR pitching.
Lol, okay. Who are they trading? For who? And for how long? People seem to think the offense and starting 8 are playoff caliber, but they are below the NL average in runs/game.
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  #3727  
Old 09-24-18, 11:14 AM
wolves82 wolves82 is offline
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Originally Posted by Monclova Steve View Post
Where did you get your information?
According to spotrac and baseball-reference, those salaries aren't even close!
I would suggest you re-check your sources.
Also from Spotrac - averaged over life of contract
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  #3728  
Old 09-24-18, 11:40 AM
14Red 14Red is offline
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Originally Posted by troyboy73 View Post
Adam Duvall/ last 30 games 5 for 45 .111 average 0 HR 0 Rbi. Overall hitting .191
Could we make the claim that batting behind or near Votto is one of the few reasons Duvall got pitches to hit? I'm not sure i can think of a guy who's numbers fell off as quickly as Adam's. He was a 4th/ 5th outfielder with the Giants, pretty good defensively. Comes to the Reds, makes the All Star game, makes the home run derby, then just falls apart. It seems like the 2nd half of last season, after the home run derby, he's never been the same.
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  #3729  
Old 09-24-18, 11:46 AM
14Red 14Red is offline
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Originally Posted by Monclova Steve View Post
Luis Castillo, last 15 games:
2.93 ERA
1.05 WHIP

Pretty good case for a rotation spot in 2019.
I'd guess Castillo will pitch opening day in 2019. He's been really good lately.
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  #3730  
Old 09-24-18, 12:12 PM
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Originally Posted by wolves82 View Post
Also from Spotrac - averaged over life of contract
Most of those guys were currently actually making significantly more than what you quoted.
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  #3731  
Old 09-24-18, 12:15 PM
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Duvall is a type 1 diabetic, he’s always tapered off at the end of a season. So a poor year is ending with a notable lull. I hope he can rebound next year.
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  #3732  
Old 09-24-18, 01:49 PM
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Originally Posted by eastside_purple View Post
Duvall is a type 1 diabetic, he’s always tapered off at the end of a season. So a poor year is ending with a notable lull. I hope he can rebound next year.
But in the majors, he's never been a full time player until he came to Cincy.
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  #3733  
Old 09-24-18, 01:55 PM
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Originally Posted by 14Red View Post
But in the majors, he's never been a full time player until he came to Cincy.
Okay.
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  #3734  
Old 09-24-18, 02:43 PM
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Originally Posted by wolves82 View Post

Current contracts of studs:
- Kluber - may win another Cy Young - making 7.7M per year on his contract which ends 2020.
- Sale - dominant when healthy - making 6.5M per year, contract ends 2020
- Bumgardner - 7M per year - ends 2020
- DeGrom - 7.4M per year - ends 2021

Bargains!
Everyone is telling me that these great pitchers make more than this currently. Thanks. I know. I clearly labeled "per year", meaning the average annual value of the contract. Go here if you care: https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/contracts/starting-pitcher/ Scroll down to find the guys I named.

Allow me to spell out my point more clearly, since I clearly did a poor job of making the point:

If your organization is smart and lucky, you can identify great pitchers BEFORE they are great, and sign them long term, and end up with relative bargains. Clearly the 4 guys I named should be among the most expensive pitchers in baseball in 2018, but they are not.
- Sale - 27th most expensive starting pitcher - $12.5M
- Bumgarner - 29th - $12M
- Kluber - 33rd - $10.7M
- DeGrom - 46th - $7.4M

This actually supports the concept that IndianDad put out there about trying to lock up Castillo and Mahle long term in June. It is not a terrible idea, it is exactly how the guys above got locked up long term for good money that has them well under market value now. Their teams identified them and took a chance, and it paid off huge for them.

Of course, it can backfire too. That is why in June my reply to Indiandad was "it is too early" on these guys. Now maybe in October we have seen enough of Castillo to take that chance on him. Lock him up for 4-5 years and maybe we have ourselves a Kluber in his prime. Might be worth a chance...
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  #3735  
Old 09-24-18, 03:41 PM
Indiandad Indiandad is offline
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Originally Posted by wolves82 View Post
Everyone is telling me that these great pitchers make more than this currently. Thanks. I know. I clearly labeled "per year", meaning the average annual value of the contract. Go here if you care: https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/contracts/starting-pitcher/ Scroll down to find the guys I named.

Allow me to spell out my point more clearly, since I clearly did a poor job of making the point:

If your organization is smart and lucky, you can identify great pitchers BEFORE they are great, and sign them long term, and end up with relative bargains. Clearly the 4 guys I named should be among the most expensive pitchers in baseball in 2018, but they are not.
- Sale - 27th most expensive starting pitcher - $12.5M
- Bumgarner - 29th - $12M
- Kluber - 33rd - $10.7M
- DeGrom - 46th - $7.4M

This actually supports the concept that IndianDad put out there about trying to lock up Castillo and Mahle long term in June. It is not a terrible idea, it is exactly how the guys above got locked up long term for good money that has them well under market value now. Their teams identified them and took a chance, and it paid off huge for them.

Of course, it can backfire too. That is why in June my reply to Indiandad was "it is too early" on these guys. Now maybe in October we have seen enough of Castillo to take that chance on him. Lock him up for 4-5 years and maybe we have ourselves a Kluber in his prime. Might be worth a chance...
Do you think Castillo's price has gone up, down or stayed the same since June?
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  #3736  
Old 09-24-18, 05:10 PM
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eastside_purple eastside_purple is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wolves82 View Post
Everyone is telling me that these great pitchers make more than this currently. Thanks. I know. I clearly labeled "per year", meaning the average annual value of the contract. Go here if you care: https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/contracts/starting-pitcher/ Scroll down to find the guys I named.

Allow me to spell out my point more clearly, since I clearly did a poor job of making the point:

If your organization is smart and lucky, you can identify great pitchers BEFORE they are great, and sign them long term, and end up with relative bargains. Clearly the 4 guys I named should be among the most expensive pitchers in baseball in 2018, but they are not.
- Sale - 27th most expensive starting pitcher - $12.5M
- Bumgarner - 29th - $12M
- Kluber - 33rd - $10.7M
- DeGrom - 46th - $7.4M

This actually supports the concept that IndianDad put out there about trying to lock up Castillo and Mahle long term in June. It is not a terrible idea, it is exactly how the guys above got locked up long term for good money that has them well under market value now. Their teams identified them and took a chance, and it paid off huge for them.

Of course, it can backfire too. That is why in June my reply to Indiandad was "it is too early" on these guys. Now maybe in October we have seen enough of Castillo to take that chance on him. Lock him up for 4-5 years and maybe we have ourselves a Kluber in his prime. Might be worth a chance...
It’s not what they are making “per year”.
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  #3737  
Old 09-24-18, 05:26 PM
Indiandad Indiandad is offline
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Originally Posted by eastside_purple View Post
It’s not what they are making “per year”.
He was speaking in terms of AAV. It is generally how contracts are viewed by the front office when determining a players value.
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  #3738  
Old 09-24-18, 08:21 PM
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Originally Posted by Indiandad View Post
Do you think Castillo's price has gone up, down or stayed the same since June?
About the same.
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  #3739  
Old 09-25-18, 08:13 AM
14Red 14Red is offline
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Sadly by next week, the Reds season will be over. Even though it's been a tough season, I still love following the team everyday.
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  #3740  
Old 09-25-18, 08:23 AM
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Sadly by next week, the Reds season will be over. Even though it's been a tough season, I still love following the team everyday.
You do love those below average major leaguers unconditionally.
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  #3741  
Old 09-25-18, 10:36 AM
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You do love those below average major leaguers unconditionally.
Nope EP, just love baseball and following the team on a daily basis. Every year I've followed baseball, some teams win, some teams lose.
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  #3742  
Old 09-25-18, 05:57 PM
Indiandad Indiandad is offline
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Larkin withdraws his name from the Reds Managerial search.
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  #3743  
Old 09-25-18, 06:48 PM
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Larkin withdraws his name from the Reds Managerial search.
Smart move. He sees the Reds have no plan in place to win in the near future. No reason to hurt his legacy while also hurt future coaching opportunities when ownership and the front office aren't committed.
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  #3744  
Old 09-26-18, 06:10 AM
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Reds making a late charge for the 5th pick overall. 4 games left and the Reds trail by 2 losses. They are currently tied for the 6th pick in the win column but have 1 more loss than the Rangers. Will the Rangers play 162 or did they cancel a game?
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  #3745  
Old 09-26-18, 07:14 AM
wolves82 wolves82 is offline
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Do you think Castillo's price has gone up, down or stayed the same since June?
About the same or possibly gone up a little, which is OK by me if you can remove some of the risk from the equation. Castillo seemingly figured some things out and I feel like his chances at long term success are better now.

How do you feel about locking up Mahle at that price in June?
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  #3746  
Old 09-26-18, 07:19 AM
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Originally Posted by eastside_purple View Post
It’s not what they are making “per year”.
I'll concede that "Average" or AAV would have been more accurate than "per year", if you concede that you are a troll and not an English teacher. Please add something meaningful to the conversation once in a while.
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  #3747  
Old 09-26-18, 10:03 AM
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Originally Posted by wolves82 View Post
About the same or possibly gone up a little, which is OK by me if you can remove some of the risk from the equation. Castillo seemingly figured some things out and I feel like his chances at long term success are better now.

How do you feel about locking up Mahle at that price in June?
I'm still ok with Mahle at that price.

The premise was that you could lock in 3 promising young pitchers long term for roughly the same as what Bailey was getting. Let's assume for a minute that Bailey hadn't gotten hurt and had pitched to his potential, not great but above average over his contract life. For the same price you could have gotten 3 pitchers. If one pans out it is a break even. If two, then you're ahead and if all 3 do you're a small market contender with payroll flexibility.

The risk is worth the reward IMO.
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  #3748  
Old 09-26-18, 10:04 AM
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Please add something meaningful to the conversation once in a while.
He's incapable.
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  #3749  
Old 09-26-18, 10:13 AM
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The risk of course is they don’t pan out or get injured or both and your stuck doing more patchwork or rolling out a batting practice level pitcher over the next 5+ years. I’d like to see a difference in how they invest and use pitching, making it more flexible versus specialized. With the cost of starting pitching and the unreliabness of it, in my opinion, it’s the way teams (especially small market teams) will move.
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  #3750  
Old 09-26-18, 05:21 PM
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The risk of course is they don’t pan out or get injured or both and your stuck doing more patchwork or rolling out a batting practice level pitcher over the next 5+ years. I’d like to see a difference in how they invest and use pitching, making it more flexible versus specialized. With the cost of starting pitching and the unreliabness of it, in my opinion, it’s the way teams (especially small market teams) will move.
Of course there is a risk of injury or failure. A team can protect against failure by having a competent scouting and development staff. By the second year in the bigs it should be evident if they are capable of success at the highest level.
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