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-   -   Region 1 after Week 3 (http://www.yappi.com/forums/showthread.php?t=305364)

cardzfan1234 09-10-17 08:46 AM

Region 1 after Week 3
 
Things get more clear every week. Most people were under agreement that we have 9 teams vying for 8 spots. I don't think that changes at all after Week 3.

At the top, Ignatius picked up a huge win over Euclid. Their first three wins (Hoban, Mentor, and Euclid) are against teams that will combine for 22-24 wins. Because of that, I think Ignatius is in the mix to make the playoffs even at 5-5. But considering I would be shocked with anything less than 8-2, it shouldn't be a problem. As for Euclid, their first two nonleague wins (Aurora and Glenville) are currently winless - but both should pick up a lot of wins the rest of the season.

The other major power in Region 1, St Edward, also is 3-0. The Eagles host Elder (3-0) this week in a big game for both teams. Unlike Ignatius, I don't think St Eds will have enough harbin security until they win seven games.

Jackson (2-1) had a chance to really give themselves some wiggle room in the Fed had they beaten Boardman, but they fell short. Now Jackson will need to win 5 games in the league to be in playoff contention. Big game with Perry this week. I think the winner (especially if it is Perry) is in excellent shape to make the playoffs. The Panthers have had a very ho-hum nonleague schedule, so they need a quality Fed win to prove they can make the playoffs.

McKinley's win over a probable 8/9 win team in Hudson will go a long way in an attempt to host in Week 11. Stow's big win over Solon will do the same. Stow probably has to go 10-0 to host, but that is something they have done as recently as 2015. The Comets are still 2-1 and have a good chance to finish with 8 wins, which will put them in.

Mentor picked up a nice harbin win over Glenville (0-3), a team that will win out. Massillon is looking like a team that should go 7-3 or better this year, which gives Mentor two big out of conference wins. A split with Solon/Euclid guarantees playoffs and puts them in position to host. Winning out will almost certainly lead to hosting in Week 11.

cardzfan1234 09-10-17 08:50 AM

Looking at teams outside of that 9:

Strongsville (2-1) is in a league where they might be the 4th or 5th best team. They will need to beat either Mentor, Solon, or Euclid to get in. We will find out right away as they play those teams in Weeks 4-6. Win one of those games (along with the rest of their games Weeks 7-10), and they have some hope.

Fitch (1-2), a program with some notoriety, would need to go 3-1 against Massillon, WGH, Mooney, and Boardman. Very, very unlikely. A game with WGH (0-2) this week is big for both teams.

Berea (2-1) would need to win a lot of games in the SWC, something they probably aren't favored to do. Lots of potential computer points to be had in the league, but those games will be hard to come by. If they win the next two against North Ridgeville (0-3) and Amherst (3-0), then we can start seriously considering them.

jackson03 09-10-17 09:22 AM

Jackson lost a great opportunity to get ahead in the playoff race with a close loss to Boardman. However, they have a couple paths forward.

First is as you say -- just beat Perry. They do that, then they can probably afford taking two losses in the Fed. Most of the Fed is down, and three wins in league play seems like a solid floor for the Bears. A win over McKinley would provide similar dividends if the Bears were 7-3+, as Euclid would then be unlikely to match Jackson's point total. The win over Perry seems more likely at this time, though.

The other, absent a win over Perry or McKinley, is to just beat everyone else and go 7-3. Right now, Pasteur puts a 7-3 Euclid ahead of Jackson by 0.45 points in that scenario. It would then come down to the out-of-conference schedules: how Akron East, Mayfield, Central, and Aurora fare on the season. Euclid's points are much more fixed with Glenville almost certain to run through the Senate League. I expect Akron East to be 9-1, while Pastuer has them at 7-3 right now. The Bears need to hope Mayfield finishes with a winning record. Central's probably going 3-7 in line with Pasteur's thoughts, although that is not fixed. Aurora is 0-3 but the schedule is about to get a lot easier. Euclid will want them 5-5 or better. A 7-3 Jackson could also get ahead of a 7-3 Solon with similar breaks, though this seems less likely.

flyeaglesfly 09-10-17 11:15 AM

go comets

EagleFan 09-10-17 12:48 PM

The Ignatius schedule is back to a computer-point generating machine like we are used to from them. 5-5 still probably nets them 20 points which would possibly be enough for the 8 seed.

The Three Parma's and Walsh made their schedule quite average from a potential computer point perspective for the last two years.

EagleFan 09-10-17 12:57 PM

My projections, based on predicted results at this link: http://yappi.com/forums/showthread.php?t=305371

1. 46.4000 Cleveland St. Ignatius 10-0
2. 33.8173 Canton McKinley 9-1
3. 33.7500 Mentor 9-1
4 28.7500 Stow-Munroe Falls 9-1
5. 27.3500 Massillon Perry 9-1
6. 26.7500 Solon 8-2
7. 25.9000 Massillon Jackson 7-3
8. 25.2933 Lakewood St. Edward 7-3

9. 22.9000 Euclid 7-3
10. 16.4000 Strongsville 6-4

As discussed above, does not seem likely anyone beyond the top 9 I listed as having much of a chance. We will see if that changes over the next few weeks.

cardzfan1234 09-10-17 01:19 PM

This might be the deepest Region 1 in quite some time. Euclid, a potential 8 seed, really did put up a good fight against Ignatius, the likely top seed and favorite. A dropped pass for a would be touchdown would have closed the gap in the 3rd quarter.

EagleFan 09-10-17 01:25 PM

With the Fed's rep of unexpected outcomes, I would not be surprised if only two Fed teams get in in Region 1. I have 3 right now, but Jackson is still a question mark in my mind. They are probably Euclid's best chance to get back into Top 8 in the projections over the coming weeks.

IgnatianAMDG 09-10-17 07:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by EagleFan (Post 6832482)
My projections, based on predicted results at this link: http://yappi.com/forums/showthread.php?t=305371

1. 46.4000 Cleveland St. Ignatius 10-0
2. 33.8173 Canton McKinley 9-1
3. 33.7500 Mentor 9-1
4 28.7500 Stow-Munroe Falls 9-1
5. 27.3500 Massillon Perry 9-1
6. 26.7500 Solon 8-2
7. 25.9000 Massillon Jackson 7-3
8. 25.2933 Lakewood St. Edward 7-3

9. 22.9000 Euclid 7-3
10. 16.4000 Strongsville 6-4

As discussed above, does not seem likely anyone beyond the top 9 I listed as having much of a chance. We will see if that changes over the next few weeks.

;)

tom 48 09-10-17 08:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by IgnatianAMDG (Post 6832784)
;)

He's not serious.Sandbagging at its best. Everyone knows that St. Edward is strongly favored to go through the season undefeated. Anything less than a state championship will be a major disappointment to Eagle fans.

EagleFan 09-10-17 08:43 PM

In 2017 Ignatius is the team deserving to be on top, and they have a schedule that generates more computer points (that was not true last two years).

I do have Ignatius 10-0, with only the X game a question mark, possibly the Eds game. Who else would they lose to?

sehs73 09-10-17 08:48 PM

Sandbagging aside, doin't count out McKinley. They are the one team in R1 that can play with (and beat) the noted two.

tom 48 09-10-17 09:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by EagleFan (Post 6832828)
In 2017 Ignatius is the team deserving to be on top, and they have a schedule that generates more computer points (that was not true last two years).

I do have Ignatius 10-0, with only the X game a question mark, possibly the Eds game. Who else would they lose to?

They probably finish 8-2. X is too tough and your team should be favored.

IgnatianAMDG 09-11-17 12:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tom 48 (Post 6832855)
They probably finish 8-2. X is too tough and your team should be favored.

I'd be happy splitting against Eds, Xavier, Elder, and Moeller.

I expect a win against DCC, but I don't think its guaranteed considering we lost to them last year. GlenOak seems to be down compared to last year. They should also beat the Canadian team (even if they had a surprising win against Cleveland Heights).

Speaking of the Canadian team (North), they play: Pickerington North, Cleveland Heights, HH Wayne, McDowell (PA), Lorain, Xavier, and Warren Harding (in addition to Ignatius). Kind of sad that we all couldn't, you know, play each other instead of a Canadian team.

OldEagle71 09-11-17 07:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by EagleFan (Post 6832482)
My projections, based on predicted results at this link: http://yappi.com/forums/showthread.php?t=305371

1. 46.4000 Cleveland St. Ignatius 10-0
2. 33.8173 Canton McKinley 9-1
3. 33.7500 Mentor 9-1
4 28.7500 Stow-Munroe Falls 9-1
5. 27.3500 Massillon Perry 9-1
6. 26.7500 Solon 8-2
7. 25.9000 Massillon Jackson 7-3
8. 25.2933 Lakewood St. Edward 7-3

9. 22.9000 Euclid 7-3
10. 16.4000 Strongsville 6-4

As discussed above, does not seem likely anyone beyond the top 9 I listed as having much of a chance. We will see if that changes over the next few weeks.

Are the Eagles really in danger of missing playoffs?

tom 48 09-11-17 09:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by OldEagle71 (Post 6833004)
Are the Eagles really in danger of missing playoffs?

No.

EagleSE 09-11-17 10:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by IgnatianAMDG (Post 6832909)
I expect a win against DCC, but I don't think its guaranteed considering we lost to them last year. GlenOak seems to be down compared to last year. They should also beat the Canadian team (even if they had a surprising win against Cleveland Heights).

Ignatius should have won last year if not for the awful call on roughing the punter. DCC has already lost to Whitmer, I would expect them to lose to St. Ignatius also.

It will be interesting to see how competitive the game is vs. Ignatius, it might give us an idea of how solid Whitmer is this year.

EagleFan 09-11-17 10:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by OldEagle71 (Post 6833004)
Are the Eagles really in danger of missing playoffs?

At 6-4 quite possible or likely. With Elder, Moeller, and Xavier on schedule it's not simple to sit back and predict a 10-0/9-1 season. All 3 have beaten Eds in recent seasons, and thrown in a long trip to Illinois and the possibility exists even if they are a Top 10 D I team.

I'm hopeful for 8-2 and gaining the experience to win some games in November.

cardzfan1234 09-11-17 12:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by OldEagle71 (Post 6833004)
Are the Eagles really in danger of missing playoffs?

Worst case scenario for the Eagles missing at 7-3 would need to include:

- The three GCC teams (Mentor, Euclid, and Solon) splitting games with each other - thus leaving all of them at 8-2, and likely all ahead of a 7-3 St Edward team. If one of them loses twice (like Mentor did last year), that team would likely finish behind a the Eagles at 7-3.

- Jackson and/or Perry getting a win against McKinley. If both do so, that definitely spells bad news for a 7-3 St Edward team.

More than likely, if the Eagles can muster just one win out of the Ignatius/GCL games - they will make the playoffs. Going 0-4 (incredibly unlikely) would be devastating to their playoff chances.

tom 48 09-11-17 04:34 PM

Who is going to beat McKinley?

EagleFan 09-11-17 04:40 PM

Should be favored in all, but the Fed is always good for upsets so I figure they trip up once

cardzfan1234 09-12-17 11:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tom 48 (Post 6833566)
Who is going to beat McKinley?

Since 2009, the only time a team went undefeated in the Fed was McKinley in 2013. They were not undefeated against Stark County teams though, as they lost to Massillon in Week 10. The Fed/Stark County rarely has a team heads and shoulders about the rest. It is kinda like the NFL - on any given week. McKinley may be the best, but based on recent history I wouldn't bet they will finish 10-0.


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