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-   -   Division cutoff numbers for track 2018 (http://www.yappi.com/forums/showthread.php?t=303257)

billrodgers 06-19-17 09:38 PM

Division cutoff numbers for track 2018
 
anyone have forecast of what the cutoff numbers may look like?

CoventryTrackXCguy 06-20-17 06:34 AM

300 give or take.

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CC Track Fan 06-21-17 10:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CoventryTrackXCguy (Post 6780478)
300 give or take.

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I agree as long as a similar number of teams entered 9 at districts as two years ago the cut-off for D1 boys will be 300 or 301. Either number will move Lexington to D1 as I believe they are the biggest track team on the boarder line.

Mr. Slippery 06-21-17 10:32 AM

I went through 2 years ago and counted all the teams that had 9 kids compete at districts. I might do that again, but it is not high on my list of priorities right now.

CoventryTrackXCguy 06-21-17 02:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CC Track Fan (Post 6781023)
I agree as long as a similar number of teams entered 9 at districts as two years ago the cut-off for D1 boys will be 300 or 301. Either number will move Lexington to D1 as I believe they are the biggest track team on the boarder line.

Coventry at 296 is in an incredibly dicey situation, but my guess is we squeak out d2, at lest for the next couple years. I hope we stay in d2, theres no way Coventry ever will have the kind of depth necessary to compete with the likes of Glen Oak, and Canton Mckinnly on a yearly basis. This past season, we made it all the way to a 6th place finish at regionals with a sub 44 in the 4 by 100, and we had to substitute in our 5 and 6th fastest runners, because of injuries to our 3rd and 4th. impressive show of depth, but theres no way we can put that kind of depth year in year out across all 17 events.

southernman 06-21-17 07:02 PM

Division Enrollment Schools
I 293 or more 228
II 151-292 229
III 150 or less 228
Total Teams 685
This was the last year numbers. Will they go up or down? Stay the same?

cvctrackfan 06-21-17 08:18 PM

Our Boys are at 150....I'm wishing for 151 and Below for D3

Mr. Slippery 06-21-17 09:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by southernman (Post 6781189)
Division Enrollment Schools
I 293 or more 228
II 151-292 229
III 150 or less 228
Total Teams 685
This was the last year numbers. Will they go up or down? Stay the same?

If population trends continue, the numbers should go down.

I already have the enrollment numbers in an Excel file. What I don't know is which schools all had teams and which ones didn't.

Having stated that, if I just look at all schools that have at least 20 boys enrolled (796 in all) with no consideration for which ones counted as a track team this past spring, the top third ends up being 277 and above, the middle third is 142 to 276, and the bottom third is 141 to 20.

However, the population trends also could make the numbers go up. Why, you ask? Well, we have a large number of schools that are becoming ridiculously small. More smaller schools means a greater possibility that more schools didn't have enough bodies to be counted as teams. Less teams on the low end pulls some of the smaller DII schools down to DIII and pulls some of the smaller DI schools down to DII. When smaller schools get pulled down a division, the cut-off ends up being higher.

I will start to look at this further in the coming days by examining the district meet results to see how many smaller schools actually fielded "teams." There will be some larger schools that may not have fielded "teams" (especially on the girls' side regarding some urban public schools), but it's safe to assume that most schools with more than 125 boys or girls fielded a "team" if they offer the sport at all.

CC Track Fan 06-21-17 09:39 PM

The way I came up with 300 is two years ago it took 245 total schools to get 228 track teams in D1. Count down 245 schools this year and that get enrollment of 300.

By the way there are 7174 more boys in the counts this year than there was 2 years ago so enrollment is actual up. Girls up 6492. I got to believe that is the way the count not that enrollment is actual up but I don't know.

Mr. Slippery 06-30-17 06:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CC Track Fan (Post 6781242)
The way I came up with 300 is two years ago it took 245 total schools to get 228 track teams in D1. Count down 245 schools this year and that get enrollment of 300.

By the way there are 7174 more boys in the counts this year than there was 2 years ago so enrollment is actual up. Girls up 6492. I got to believe that is the way the count not that enrollment is actual up but I don't know.

I forget if they included home school and charter school kids in the count for this cycle or if that idea never materialized after it was shot down right before they did the divisional breakdowns 2 years ago.


On to the topic at hand...

I wasted many hours of my life and combed all boys district results to count up how many schools had 9 different boys entered at the district level. The only district that was tricky was DIII Newcomerstown because the results do not include prelims, so there was no perfect way to identify everyone who was entered. For the teams in that district for which I couldn't find 9, I used their league meet results, so that creates an additional margin for error here.

I arrived at a total of 686 schools that had at least 9 different boys entered for districts. I forgot to keep track of this, but I think there were around 25 schools that had 8 entrants. I believe there were 685 boys teams counted during the previous 2 year cycle.

Cut-offs are tricky because of having multiple teams with the same number of boys on either side of the cut line. If my work is at all accurate, my best guess is this:

DI: 298 and up - 230 teams
DII: 154 to 297 - 228 teams
DIII: 153 and down - 228 teams

10 teams right above the DI/DII cut line:
Thornville Sheridan 299
Tallmadge 299
Niles McKinley 299
Celina 300
Rocky River 300
Lexington 301
Norton 301
Bay Village Bay 302
Cincinnati Woodward 307
Medina Buckeye 307

10 teams right below the DI/DII cut line:
Lodi Cloverleaf 297
Akron Coventry 296
Tipp City Tippecanoe 296
Columbus Bishop Watterson 294
Vincent Warren 294
Monroe 291
Elida 290
Jackson (The one in SE Ohio) - 289
New Richmond - 287
Delaware Buckeye Valley - 286

10 teams right above the DII/DIII cut line:
Cincinnati Summit Country Day 154
Liberty Center 154
Newton Falls 154
Hanoverton United 154
Ironton 155
Elyria Catholic 155
Coldwater 156
Apple Creek Waynedale 156
Springfield Greenon 157
Leavittsburg LaBrae 158

10 teams right below the DII/DIII cut line:
Fredericktown 153
West Jefferson 153
Norwayne 153
Columbiana Crestview 153
Atwater Waterloo 153
Columbus Academy 152
Mount Gilead 152
Kirtland 152
Middlefield Cardinal 152
Bloomdale Elmwod 152
Minford 152
Frankfort Adena 152

If they opted to go with 300 as the DI cut line, that would put 227 teams in DI. The difficulty then becomes where to put the DII/DIII cut line due to the large number of schools that are tied at 154. Include 154 as part of DII, and you have 231 schools in DII and 228 in DIII. Cut it at 155, and you have 227 schools in DII and 232 in DIII. Honestly, I could live with that if it keeps teams south of 300 boys out of DI.

Incidentally, there is no way I'm going through all the districts for the girls. My school is solidly in DIII for both genders, so where the cut lines fall is not a big deal to me; especially since the next track season is slightly more than 8 flipping months away. That said, CC Track Fan did such a fine job estimating where the boys DI cut line would fall that he/she probably has some idea where the girls cut lines would fall.

cvctrackfan 06-30-17 08:01 PM

I, like your numbers Mr. Slippery .sighhhhhhh.........those D2 schools have been slapping us around the last two years.......

Mr. Slippery 06-30-17 09:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cvctrackfan (Post 6784637)
I, like your numbers Mr. Slippery .sighhhhhhh.........those D2 schools have been slapping us around the last two years.......

I wouldn't take my numbers as gospel, but I would say that your guys shouldn't have to worry about the possibility of remaining in DII. There's a ton of teams sitting between 150 and my projected cut line, so even if I missed by a school or two, it would take some really shady math by the OHSAA to keep your crew in DII.

CoventryTrackXCguy 06-30-17 11:25 PM

cvctrackfan, Gilmour Academy is probably fine. Im the one thats rightfully scared to death right now lol. We are right under the knife rn.

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CoventryTrackXCguy 06-30-17 11:29 PM

The sad part is half our high school is open enrolled so we could cut back if we wanted to.

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cvctrackfan 07-01-17 05:30 AM

Coventry cutting open enrollment is a difficult thing to do for school systems. The money generated per student is in the thousands.

CoventryTrackXCguy 07-01-17 08:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cvctrackfan (Post 6784702)
Coventry cutting open enrollment is a difficult thing to do for school systems. The money generated per student is in the thousands.

Good point.

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southernman 08-01-17 04:25 PM

Will this be released on 8/3? Anymore news or predictions on cutoff numbers?

CC Track Fan 08-03-17 12:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by southernman (Post 6799133)
Will this be released on 8/3? Anymore news or predictions on cutoff numbers?

I think it is wrong on OHSSA website and will not find out until 8/10 or later after their next meeting.

CC Track Fan 08-11-17 07:44 AM

I have no idea why this takes so long?

Quote:

The board approved the new two-year divisional breakdowns for the swimming and diving, boys tennis and girls and boys lacrosse tournaments. The divisional breakdowns are posted at: http://www.ohsaa.org/School-Resource...kdowns/2017-18. The board tabled the divisional breakdowns for bowling, baseball, softball and track & field until the September meeting.

Mr. Slippery 08-11-17 01:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CC Track Fan (Post 6804483)
I have no idea why this takes so long?

I have no idea why people are upset that the divisional assignments haven't been released for sports whose seasons don't begin for another 7 months. Bowling is only 3.5 months away, so I'd be real hot about that one.

CC Track Fan 08-11-17 03:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr. Slippery (Post 6804673)
I have no idea why people are upset that the divisional assignments haven't been released for sports whose seasons don't begin for another 7 months. Bowling is only 3.5 months away, so I'd be real hot about that one.

Don't take what I said as me being upset. I just don't understand why it would take so long just count up the number of teams that had 9 at districts and divide by 3 and there is the cut offs. I agree bowling is really odd that it isn't done. I could understand if they were close to adding another division but it is not.

I more interested to see how the NW district is going to do the district CC meets since that season is right around the corner.

Altor 08-11-17 04:34 PM

I've never understood how football coaches can prepare their team for a tournament game when they don't know who or where they will play until 5 days before the game. The OHSAA really needs to do something about this travesty.

madman 08-11-17 05:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Altor (Post 6804781)
I've never understood how football coaches can prepare their team for a tournament game when they don't know who or where they will play until 5 days before the game. The OHSAA really needs to do something about this travesty.

My sarcasm detector is going off here...

It would be a much bigger issue if the football fields were not uniform. If there were trees, ponds, rivers, hills, etc on the field, I'm guessing that might change things up. They might demand that playoff games be played only at facilities identified well before tournament play begins.

psycho_dad 08-11-17 09:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by madman (Post 6804796)
My sarcasm detector is going off here...

It would be a much bigger issue if the football fields were not uniform. If there were trees, ponds, rivers, hills, etc on the field, I'm guessing that might change things up. They might demand that playoff games be played only at facilities identified well before tournament play begins.

Or if the coach was not allowed to make any substitutions once the game started. or if at the end of the first quarter a completely different team walked on the field against you. Or, if all of a sudden the best running back in the District got to play with the best quarterback and receiver from other teams.

You can game plan for a team that runs one type of offense, but what about having to plan for 5 different teams at the same time?

In track, we look at teams in the District and what we might see at the Regional as the season progresses so we know where we have no chance or where we might stick a slower leg in a relay to just get through to the finals. You have to plan for many teams and individuals and having just 5 days might not be enough time ahead of the district meet.

ccrunner609 08-12-17 07:42 AM

THe state of track and field in almost all aspects is outdated and needs changed.

psycho_dad 08-12-17 07:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ccrunner609 (Post 6805048)
THe state of track and field in almost all aspects is outdated and needs changed.

Come on, you need to give specifics. Track and field gains in participation nearly every year. What are your gripes?

CoventryTrackXCguy 09-17-17 12:24 PM

The deed is done. cvctrackfan, you and I can both heave a big sigh of relief. At least for the next 2 years. Mr Slippery, your numbers were incredibly close. You were short 4 schools max.

cvctrackfan 09-17-17 01:59 PM

I, can't wipe the smile off of my face...

mathking 09-17-17 04:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Altor (Post 6804781)
I've never understood how football coaches can prepare their team for a tournament game when they don't know who or where they will play until 5 days before the game. The OHSAA really needs to do something about this travesty.

Psychodad did a pretty good job with this, but I will throw out another serious issue we face, AP and IB testing. At the district meet, more often than not we end up a kid having to race over after an AP or IB test in order to compete, adjusting a kids' events or having to put a substitute in a relay. It would be a lot worse if we didn't find out until a few days before.

Running Man 101 09-18-17 11:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr. Slippery (Post 6784608)
I forget if they included home school and charter school kids in the count for this cycle or if that idea never materialized after it was shot down right before they did the divisional breakdowns 2 years ago.


On to the topic at hand...

I wasted many hours of my life and combed all boys district results to count up how many schools had 9 different boys entered at the district level. The only district that was tricky was DIII Newcomerstown because the results do not include prelims, so there was no perfect way to identify everyone who was entered. For the teams in that district for which I couldn't find 9, I used their league meet results, so that creates an additional margin for error here.

I arrived at a total of 686 schools that had at least 9 different boys entered for districts. I forgot to keep track of this, but I think there were around 25 schools that had 8 entrants. I believe there were 685 boys teams counted during the previous 2 year cycle.

Cut-offs are tricky because of having multiple teams with the same number of boys on either side of the cut line. If my work is at all accurate, my best guess is this:

DI: 298 and up - 230 teams
DII: 154 to 297 - 228 teams
DIII: 153 and down - 228 teams

10 teams right above the DI/DII cut line:
Thornville Sheridan 299
Tallmadge 299
Niles McKinley 299
Celina 300
Rocky River 300
Lexington 301
Norton 301
Bay Village Bay 302
Cincinnati Woodward 307
Medina Buckeye 307

10 teams right below the DI/DII cut line:
Lodi Cloverleaf 297
Akron Coventry 296
Tipp City Tippecanoe 296
Columbus Bishop Watterson 294
Vincent Warren 294
Monroe 291
Elida 290
Jackson (The one in SE Ohio) - 289
New Richmond - 287
Delaware Buckeye Valley - 286

10 teams right above the DII/DIII cut line:
Cincinnati Summit Country Day 154
Liberty Center 154
Newton Falls 154
Hanoverton United 154
Ironton 155
Elyria Catholic 155
Coldwater 156
Apple Creek Waynedale 156
Springfield Greenon 157
Leavittsburg LaBrae 158

10 teams right below the DII/DIII cut line:
Fredericktown 153
West Jefferson 153
Norwayne 153
Columbiana Crestview 153
Atwater Waterloo 153
Columbus Academy 152
Mount Gilead 152
Kirtland 152
Middlefield Cardinal 152
Bloomdale Elmwod 152
Minford 152
Frankfort Adena 152

If they opted to go with 300 as the DI cut line, that would put 227 teams in DI. The difficulty then becomes where to put the DII/DIII cut line due to the large number of schools that are tied at 154. Include 154 as part of DII, and you have 231 schools in DII and 228 in DIII. Cut it at 155, and you have 227 schools in DII and 232 in DIII. Honestly, I could live with that if it keeps teams south of 300 boys out of DI.

Incidentally, there is no way I'm going through all the districts for the girls. My school is solidly in DIII for both genders, so where the cut lines fall is not a big deal to me; especially since the next track season is slightly more than 8 flipping months away. That said, CC Track Fan did such a fine job estimating where the boys DI cut line would fall that he/she probably has some idea where the girls cut lines would fall.

Just downloaded the actual enrollment numbers by school. For the boys, there are roughly 198,356 grade 9-11. By your number breakdown.
D1 has 120,504 boys for 60.8% of total.
D2 has 50,980 boys for 25.7% of total.
D3 has 26,872 boys for 13.5% of total.

Seems to me there should be roughly equal number of boys per division not schools.

What really surprised me was that the Cinci (including Dayton) region has 8 of the top 11 largest schools in the state and 4 out of top 5 (Iggy is 3rd).


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