Year of the Upset

Arcy26

Arcy26

Active member
With Cleveland Heights taking down Cleveland.com’s #1 Ranked team, Lutheran East, it’s continuing a trend I’ve seen recently of highly ranked teams slipping up after obtaining their high ranking. I understand teams are supposed to slip up, but seeing a team like Lutheran West upset Iggy by double digits then lose to Holy Name is definitely unusual!
 
 
It looks like parity right now, but I predict that by tournament time 4-5 teams statewide will show some separation. Some pretty good teams are still working through some lineup changes.
 
Part of it is match ups, as well. For example, Walsh knocks off St. Ignatius and STVM and looks VERY good doing it. Both those teams play the same style of an up-tempo game which Walsh was clearly adept at controlling. Then Walsh loses to Stow (a very good team in their own right), but a team that plays a completely different style than Iggy and the Irish. I didn't see the game, but I'd venture to guess that Stow's style, to a certain extent, countered what made the Warriors successful in the prior games.
 
Irish60 said:
Part of it is match ups, as well. For example, Walsh knocks off St. Ignatius and STVM and looks VERY good doing it. Both those teams play the same style of an up-tempo game which Walsh was clearly adept at controlling. Then Walsh loses to Stow (a very good team in their own right), but a team that plays a completely different style than Iggy and the Irish. I didn't see the game, but I'd venture to guess that Stow's style, to a certain extent, countered what made the Warriors successful in the prior games.
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Was unable to go to the game, but just going by what both Byrne and Close said, Walsh and Stow are pretty similar teams in terms of roster makeup, talent and style of play, but neither team could make a shot the other night. Both teams had horrible shooting nights apparently, but Stow hit some when needed.
 
stoike said:
Was unable to go to the game, but just going by what both Byrne and Close said, Walsh and Stow are pretty similar teams in terms of roster makeup, talent and style of play, but neither team could make a shot the other night. Both teams had horrible shooting nights apparently, but Stow hit some when needed.
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Lol! Yeah, there's that, too! Some nights you just can't throw the ball into the ocean...
 
Here is my take on why you are seeing more "upsets," which I don't think is just a Northeast Ohio thing:

1. Basketball is definitely more popular than when I was in high school (late 90s) and only seems to be growing in popularity amongst kids now (FWIW, hasn't translated to this site because lets face it, most of the people that still post on boards like this are 40 and older). But the sport is very popular with teens (not just Ohio but in just about every state ... as well as internationally).

2. On top of more kids playing, it has become so specialized. Fall sport athletes going over to basketball used to be the norm. Now, they are an outlier at most of the schools that you'll find at the top of these rankings. I'm guessing that the top basketball schools may average like 2-3 players who played a fall sport.

3. Being specialized has helped with continuity. "Tryouts" are mostly a dog-and-pony show. Coaches know earlier than ever who has improved and who will be on a team. And even if it's via open gyms, "practice" essentially now starts when the school-year begins. There is less of an adjustment period to try to integrate fall sport athletes, who for the most part not only take time to integrate with the team, but need a few weeks to get their basketball legs.

4. So many of these teams are also familiar with each other because they either have played, or at least watched each other play, at all the summer events that are out there (high school teams are playing basically full-season schedule's worth of games just in June by packing in as many running clock 40 minute games as they can). That is really where the tryouts are now. Coaches know who will be in their rotation and players that are on the outside have a couple months to figure out whether to stay or find a situation at another school where they would have a better shot at playing time (I don't see anything wrong with that; if a kid is willing to dedicate that much time into a sport and there are avenues out there to play, why not take advantage of that?)

5. AAU is also now so prevalent. There are so many local programs where even the kids who are joining one of the dozens of local teams are playing 5-6 tournaments in April/May (then maybe one out of state "national" tournament in July). The ones who get on one of the sponsored travel teams are playing every weekend in April and May and then playing every weekend again in July. For those players, they are investing 11 months of the year into basketball (August ... if they aren't playing a fall sport ... being the only month off). If they are in a situation where they may be roadblocked at their current school, I'm not sure how you could blame a family for looking for a different spot, especially since those are the kids who may be on the verge of a scholarship/college opportunity, but a coach/school wants to see a little more from them during the HS season.

You add it all up and it's not a surprise why all that has led to more parity amongst teams, especially those in bigger metro areas where there are more opportunities to transfer to a better situation. Going up and down the list of teams that are ranked in some of these various polls, I can say I've either seen every single one of them, or at least know of a player or two on any of them. Going up and down that list, hardly any are consisted 100 percent with kids who have not played at another high school.

That may be turning some older folks off who remember "the good ole days" when everybody played at one high school, but it's just not reality anymore and it's not going to go back to that. I say look on the bright side and embrace the parity it has added ... you know like Lutheran West being able to beat Ignatius by 20 then turn around and lose to Holy Name less than a week later. ... Or Walsh beating SVSM and then Stow beating Walsh. I've gotten to know people over the past 5-6 years on all of those teams mentioned (all are very good teams, btw) so, for me, all these "upsets" weren't monumental and it just adds to the intrigue of the HS season, and should carry over to the tournament.
 
SVillegrad said:
Here is my take on why you are seeing more "upsets," which I don't think is just a Northeast Ohio thing:

1. Basketball is definitely more popular than when I was in high school (late 90s) and only seems to be growing in popularity amongst kids now (FWIW, hasn't translated to this site because lets face it, most of the people that still post on boards like this are 40 and older). But the sport is very popular with teens (not just Ohio but in just about every state ... as well as internationally).

2. On top of more kids playing, it has become so specialized. Fall sport athletes going over to basketball used to be the norm. Now, they are an outlier at most of the schools that you'll find at the top of these rankings. I'm guessing that the top basketball schools may average like 2-3 players who played a fall sport.

3. Being specialized has helped with continuity. "Tryouts" are mostly a dog-and-pony show. Coaches know earlier than ever who has improved and who will be on a team. And even if it's via open gyms, "practice" essentially now starts when the school-year begins. There is less of an adjustment period to try to integrate fall sport athletes, who for the most part not only take time to integrate with the team, but need a few weeks to get their basketball legs.

4. So many of these teams are also familiar with each other because they either have played, or at least watched each other play, at all the summer events that are out there (high school teams are playing basically full-season schedule's worth of games just in June by packing in as many running clock 40 minute games as they can). That is really where the tryouts are now. Coaches know who will be in their rotation and players that are on the outside have a couple months to figure out whether to stay or find a situation at another school where they would have a better shot at playing time (I don't see anything wrong with that; if a kid is willing to dedicate that much time into a sport and there are avenues out there to play, why not take advantage of that?)

5. AAU is also now so prevalent. There are so many local programs where even the kids who are joining one of the dozens of local teams are playing 5-6 tournaments in April/May (then maybe one out of state "national" tournament in July). The ones who get on one of the sponsored travel teams are playing every weekend in April and May and then playing every weekend again in July. For those players, they are investing 11 months of the year into basketball (August ... if they aren't playing a fall sport ... being the only month off). If they are in a situation where they may be roadblocked at their current school, I'm not sure how you could blame a family for looking for a different spot, especially since those are the kids who may be on the verge of a scholarship/college opportunity, but a coach/school wants to see a little more from them during the HS season.

You add it all up and it's not a surprise why all that has led to more parity amongst teams, especially those in bigger metro areas where there are more opportunities to transfer to a better situation. Going up and down the list of teams that are ranked in some of these various polls, I can say I've either seen every single one of them, or at least know of a player or two on any of them. Going up and down that list, hardly any are consisted 100 percent with kids who have not played at another high school.

That may be turning some older folks off who remember "the good ole days" when everybody played at one high school, but it's just not reality anymore and it's not going to go back to that. I say look on the bright side and embrace the parity it has added ... you know like Lutheran West being able to beat Ignatius by 20 then turn around and lose to Holy Name less than a week later. ... Or Walsh beating SVSM and then Stow beating Walsh. I've gotten to know people over the past 5-6 years on all of those teams mentioned (all are very good teams, btw) so, for me, all these "upsets" weren't monumental and it just adds to the intrigue of the HS season, and should carry over to the tournament.
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Don’t confuse AAU with working at the game. It’s a mess. It teaches very little and creates impossible egos. AAU does however provide exposure for recruitable kids. A major change that does show results is the number of kids who have trainers. Look out however, many of those guys are not what they claim they are. I know this guy in the Dayton area who never made a team beyond the 6th grade, but he’s training a bunch of kids. I’ve seen his sessions. Total nonsense. Then there are the guys who do have the knowledge, but rip off parents by providing little. Take your time choosing a trainer. A good trainer can really make a difference in your game.
 
Looseball said:
Don’t confuse AAU with working at the game. It’s a mess. It teaches very little and creates impossible egos. AAU does however provide exposure for recruitable kids. A major change that does show results is the number of kids who have trainers. Look out however, many of those guys are not what they claim they are. I know this guy in the Dayton area who never made a team beyond the 6th grade, but he’s training a bunch of kids. I’ve seen his sessions. Total nonsense. Then there are the guys who do have the knowledge, but rip off parents by providing little. Take your time choosing a trainer. A good trainer can really make a difference in your game.
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I'm definitely not confusing AAU with meaning a kid is automatically gonna get better, just that a kid even joining a local AAU team shows that he/she is serious about basketball by simply wanting to be on the floor. ... the bad programs won't help, but as long as they are playing, I don't see how that hurts.

Same with the trainer situation, and you're right, there are hundreds, if not thousands out there, trying to make a buck. The good ones will help. The bad ones won't and just hoping to make some money. But even with the trainer, I guess my point still stands. Anybody who is willing to seek one out (much like AAU) shows it's a kid who wants to play. So, if that isn't at the HS they currently attend, I got no problem with their families seeking out another where they would have the opportunity to play.

Granted, for potential next level kids, generally there are enough good people around that steer you to trainers/AAU programs that are on the up-and-up, but even some of those kids do get roadblocked at their current HS (I know of one who has signed with a college who left his former HS to go to arguably an even better one ... but his former one was just a little more loaded at the position(s) he played).

So that's what I'm getting back to. The kids who want to play and get on the court, are more and more finding spots. That has led to a lot more parity than we've seen before, and I have zero issues with that.
 
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SVillegrad said:
That may be turning some older folks off who remember "the good ole days" when everybody played at one high school, but it's just not reality anymore and it's not going to go back to that.
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There are many areas off the state where it is still the reality, thankfully.
 
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