Wuhan Coronavirus epidemic spreads from China to US

lotr10 said:
What else would you compare it to? The Black Plague or Ebola?

You are aware that most of the mitigation efforts undertaken against ciovid19 came directly from what we do to fight the flu. In the absence of solid data on the covid19 the flu makes for a good surrogate.

The flu is also a highly contagious virus that kills people every year. Comparing it's virulence & progression over the decades to covid19 is a great way to sharpen and attenuate our response to covid19. It provides all important perspective on how we handle this outbreak.
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I wouldn't compare it to anything, as it's a completely new virus. Drawing direct comparisons between 2 diseases, despite mortality statistics being collected by different methods, will always provide inaccurate information. But that seems to be the flavor of choice on this board.
 
utsherman said:
I wouldn't compare it to anything, as it's a completely new virus. Drawing direct comparisons between 2 diseases, despite mortality statistics being collected by different methods, will always provide inaccurate information. But that seems to be the flavor of choice on this board.
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You could probably compare it to SARS to since it's basically just a new, more easily spread version of that.
 
utsherman said:
I wouldn't compare it to anything, as it's a completely new virus. Drawing direct comparisons between 2 diseases, despite mortality statistics being collected by different methods, will always provide inaccurate information. But that seems to be the flavor of choice on this board.
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It's a unique virus but not a unique class of virus. Humans have been dealing with coronovirus for a long time.

The key element of covid19 that justifies a comparison to the flu virus is that it's community spread, relatively non-lethal and can be neutralized by many of the same methods we neutralize the flu virus.
 
utsherman said:
Um, what's my narrative relating to a new virus? I can't wait to hear the answer. ?
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Keeping everyone inside, the economy down, and mail in ballots. You need to read the Left playbook. It is the topic dujour after the other attempts on Trump have failed. The best reason is to keep the feeble, senile guy in the basement.
 
SayMyName said:
Keeping everyone inside, the economy down, and mail in ballots. You need to read the Left playbook. It is the topic dujour after the other attempts on Trump have failed. The best reason is to keep the feeble, senile guy in the basement.
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I thought we were talking about COVID-19? I mean, that's what I was discussing. But I see you want to share conspiracy theories now? <yawn>
 
utsherman said:
I thought we were talking about COVID-19? I mean, that's what I was discussing. But I see you want to share conspiracy theories now? <yawn>
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We are and those are reasons everyone on the Left is losing their minds....Again keep up or I'll have Harry try to explain it to you.
 
lotr10 said:
And do you think that continuing the shut down while providing exemptions to mass gatherings for certain political causes was actually going to PERMANENTLY reduce the # of infections? All it would have done is stretch out the time until we hit the same # of infections and deaths.

And since our hospitals and health care system is not in danger of being overwhelmed it's better to reopen, take the infection hit and get to herd immunity or a vaccine. At least in this way we avoid the massive collateral damage of the shut don. Collateral damage that you and others always forget to include.
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You have now said two completely different things. After claiming that the infection rise has not led to more hospitalization and death, you now spin to say that it is better to just get the death over with sooner rather than later. You are a hypocritical fraud who has been wrong for months on this subject.
 
ProV1 said:
You have now said two completely different things. After claiming that the infection rise has not led to more hospitalization and death, you now spin to say that it is better to just get the death over with sooner rather than later. You are a hypocritical fraud who has been wrong for months on this subject.
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I love the unintended irony.
 
ProV1 said:
You have now said two completely different things. After claiming that the infection rise has not led to more hospitalization and death, you now spin to say that it is better to just get the death over with sooner rather than later. You are a hypocritical fraud who has been wrong for months on this subject.
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You're losing your edge in the GOTCHA game ProV. I've always said that more cases will lead to more deaths in the absolute. The important parameter was whether the % of new people getting infected who die is going up or going down. Ditto for hospitalizations. Of course with hospitalization you're dealing with the profit motive which is causing many of them to lower their covid10 entrance criteria. But that's another discussion.

My point about your idiotic post was that maintaining the lock down was not needed to flatten the curve and peserve our hospital infrastructure as that has already been achieved. The only outcomes from maintaining the lock down are:

* Slow down the rate of infection but in the end the same number of infections and deaths will occur.

* Create collateral damage on a colossal scale.
 
SayMyName said:
We are and those are reasons everyone on the Left is losing their minds....Again keep up or I'll have Harry try to explain it to you.
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I'm not losing my mind, but thanks for the concern. Aside from genuine empathy for those who have lost jobs and/or businesses, been furloughed, suffered financially, and have been medically (physically/mentally) impacted, I've been able to navigate things without whining, complaining, and spinning political conspiracy theories. My current favorite around here is that because I wear a mask when it makes sense, the boxcars are coming for us all! <stands and slow claps>
 
utsherman said:
'm not losing my mind, but thanks for the concern. Aside from genuine empathy for those who have lost jobs and/or businesses, been furloughed, suffered financially, and have been medically (physically/mentally) impacted, I've been able to navigate things without whining, complaining, and spinning political conspiracy theories.
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Then congrats to you. You may have just evolved from the Left (y)
 
Krugman gonna Krugman lol.

EbxZ-tWXQAURGbT
 
lotr10 said:
You're losing your edge in the GOTCHA game ProV. I've always said that more cases will lead to more deaths in the absolute. The important parameter was whether the % of new people getting infected who die is going up or going down. Ditto for hospitalizations. Of course with hospitalization you're dealing with the profit motive which is causing many of them to lower their covid10 entrance criteria. But that's another discussion.

My point about your idiotic post was that maintaining the lock down was not needed to flatten the curve and peserve our hospital infrastructure as that has already been achieved. The only outcomes from maintaining the lock down are:

* Slow down the rate of infection but in the end the same number of infections and deaths will occur.

* Create collateral damage on a colossal scale.
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You spew double talk. Slowing down the rate of infection will lead to fewer deaths. For no other reason than less dearth prior to a vaccine will mean less death period. It is common sense. The real truth in this entire debacle is how horribly this this was botched from the beginning.

1. Downplaying and slow response early in the crisis.
2. A total lack of uniform and national testing process and protocol.
3. A total lack of enforceable guidelines on what should be closed and opened and when and how.
4. A total abandonment of the problem at a Federal level overt he last 60 days. What meaningful thing has the Federal government done in the last 2 months? They have totally punted with an attitude of "Who cares. We are done here"

We are going backwards in a major way to the point of MORE economic damage and now the United States is the country being travel banned. Any person who defends this epic fail needs their head examined.
 
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ProV1 said:
You spew double talk. Slowing down the rate of infection will lead to fewer deaths you idiot. For no other reason than less dearth prior to a vaccine will mean less death period. It is common sense. The real truth in this entire debacle is how horribly this this was botched from the beginning.
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This is ONLY true if you slow it down long enough for a treatment or vaccine to arrive or for the virus to naturally weaken. But if all you're doing is pushing it out a few months, and so far that's the best the mitigation has achieved, then the total # of people who die from covid19 will be about the same. One scenario just takes a couple of more months to reach.

And again you ignore the serious collateral damage any lock down will cause. Say you lock down until we get the vaccine. And say that takes a year. The # of deaths attributable to the lock down will be far greater then any increased deaths caused by reopening.

You seem oblivious to the pubic health calamity the recent shut down has been. Extending it would have been deeply irresponsible and potentially apocalyptic.
 
People act as if Death is the only measure that counts for anything as if all who don't die are as good as new for the rest of the their lives so why not just open everything fully go big or go home because you won't die and will have no ill effects . Yes many will never feel much of anything if they get the virus, young mortality is tiny, i hope and thing kids can go back to school buildings . BUT this notion that dying is the only adverse effect is simply not true. Too many states didn't properly go from one phase to the next re-opening phase . Obviously the initial response was terrible and not just at the Federal level ,but states made some poor decisions as well . Countries that did the best ands are faring the best had the strongest leadership at the top and central messages and plans that were executed well with NO MIXED MESSAGES AND LEADERSHIP .
 
lotr10 said:
This is ONLY true if you slow it down long enough for a treatment or vaccine to arrive or for the virus to naturally weaken. But if all you're doing is pushing it out a few months, and so far that's the best the mitigation has achieved, then the total # of people who die from covid19 will be about the same. One scenario just takes a couple of more months to reach.

And again you ignore the serious collateral damage any lock down will cause. Say you lock down until we get the vaccine. And say that takes a year. The # of deaths attributable to the lock down will be far greater then any increased deaths caused by reopening.

You seem oblivious to the pubic health calamity the recent shut down has been. Extending it would have been deeply irresponsible and potentially apocalyptic.
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No one is suggesting unlimited lockdowns or wants them . Is there a precedent you can point to that says just how disastrous the initial lockdown was or the second shut downs are and will be in terms of death and despair? Not saying there isn't any , of course there is just as there is going to be more deaths by fully opening as we have seen. Long term lockdowns aren't sustainable in any way and you seem to arguing with the strawman here.

You can't even slightly criticize the federal response at all . Trump has handled this as well as possible or could be expected. This is your take and that is for his whole Presidency as well . All the while almost 70 percent think he has done a bad job which he surely has . Your credibility on takes about the response or strategy needs to be taken with a grain of salt because you have a huge blind spot where Trump and his administration is concerned that seems even stronger than being willfully blind. I mean you even agreed with him lying and making absurd statements in February and March especially . Then he just stops his covid Federal task force briefings , having one in two months , yet you say nothing as if it's nothing. He gave up , it's everyone else's problem . Crickets
 
Harrycrane said:
No one is suggesting unlimited lockdowns or wants them . Is there a precedent you can point to that says just how disastrous the initial lockdown was or the second shut downs are and will be in terms of death and despair? Not saying there isn't any , of course there is just as there is going to be more deaths by fully opening as we have seen. Long term lockdowns aren't sustainable in any way and you seem to arguing with the strawman here.
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I bet you question whether smoking is hazardous to your health to.

And if you want to look at lock down pathology there is a lag from when you shut down to when you see the problems, but we do know that:

* Increased poverty leads to increased adverse health events.

* Delayed diagnostics and elective surgery lead to increased adverse health events.

* The longer people are under stress the greater the adverse health events.

* We've already seen a spike in suicides as peoples dreams are washed away by the irresponsible shut downs.

* The damage to our kids with the shut down of the schools and extracurricular activities will be huge if we don't fully reopen in the fall.

But hey if you don't think poverty isn't directly linked to adverse health events then yes it's just a straw man. But if it's a straw man why do we spend so much money fighting poverty?
 
While on the topic of economic stress, Goldman Sachs has surmised that a federal mandate to wear masks would slow the spread of the COVID-19 enough to save 5% GDP loss. You can look at their analysis if interested, but I'm sure this won't change anyone's mind at this point.
 
lotr10 said:
I bet you question whether smoking is hazardous to your health to.

And if you want to look at lock down pathology there is a lag from when you shut down to when you see the problems, but we do know that:

* Increased poverty leads to increased adverse health events.

* Delayed diagnostics and elective surgery lead to increased adverse health events.

* The longer people are under stress the greater the adverse health events.

* We've already seen a spike in suicides as peoples dreams are washed away by the irresponsible shut downs.

* The damage to our kids with the shut down of the schools and extracurricular activities will be huge if we don't fully reopen in the fall.

But hey if you don't think poverty isn't directly linked to adverse health events then yes it's just a straw man. But if it's a straw man why do we spend so much money fighting poverty?
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No I said NO ONE is saying that they want extended lockdowns or things being shuttered . Who are you arguing with about lockdowns having no adverse effects on the population ? The strawman ? Economics , schools being open , poverty and mental health to name a few are issues . No one is saying there aren't , but at least admit that the Federal response led by your hero has bene poor and is at least somewhat responsible for some of the damage instead of just blaming others that saw no choice at first to do this and some who see partial closing necessary now . You seem to want to furiously explain away incompetence, move the goal posts more and more , blame lockdowns more than the incredibly poor response to this that made things so much worse than they had to be . Did you always know the numbers here would be this bad ? Did you think by July 4th that we might have totally bent the curve and be well on the other side of the pandemic? Be honest . Did you think we would have almost one third of the worlds deaths and counting? [ yes you will say we are great in per capita deaths which is becoming less true every
week} NO you didn't assume or think any of that . It wasn't inevitable and the federal response was never as good as could be expected as you once said and it hasn't gotten better. We aren't shut down , so what is your issue ? That we shut for too long ? Who did ? Where ?
 
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