Will XC happen this fall?

I heard Tiffin will be deciding in the next week or 2 whether to have a meet. I am sure many will do the same. Is there any way some of these mega meets can go on as normal? Scheduling could become a nightmare if meets start to cancel or if restrictions are placed on how many teams can compete and you have to look for other options, which could be restricted in numbers. July is next week and I hope things start to get organized.
 

CC Track Fan

Active member
Put a clown in charge and you better expect a circus. Don't think we could possibly have worse governance from the executive branch. There needs to be a federal plan. It is getting to the point where it is criminal. The Death of Expertise!!!

Remember in the Life of Brian where they are being crucified and start singing "Always look on the bright side of life"?! We have gotten to a point that is about that absurd. United States of America 2020 and we are clearly the worst in the world at dealing with this mess. It's upsetting.

Houston Texas is on the edge of disaster.

Where is the leadership going to come from to put a plan together that will allow kids to go to school this Fall? 50 states with 50 different plans. No matter how well we do here, if things go bad elsewhere, we are screwed. Do we just have to rub some dirt on it and get back to life as normal no matter what the consequences? This is a Joke.
So you are saying NYC should have the same plan/restrictions as Hicksville Ohio?
 

psycho_dad

Well-known member
So you are saying NYC should have the same plan/restrictions as Hicksville Ohio?
Of course not, but there has to be a plan of action for people from Hicksville Ohio that travel to NYC or from NYC to Hicksville. There needs to be a big picture plan and then a finely tuned local plan. As a society we are interconnected. Things we do affect other people.

Do you let all the kids on your team just do what they want? You have a master plan and then fine tune it for each kid or at least groups of kids. But there is some sort of structure. You don't allow one family dictate to you how you run your program.

Even in Ohio and just OHSAA schools for athletic purposes. If a few schools start having a ton of people inundating the ICU and they have come in contact with other schools, there is an issue. It's all well and good to say this school system or that is going back full go. But what if all the other schools in their conference decide not to have sports this Fall? Is there a plan in place to assure us all that Athletics won't be cancelled? Will schools remain open no matter what happens in Hicksville? I want there to be a Cross Country season. I'm very upset that things were handled so badly that there was not a track and field season. Sticking our heads in the sand and thinking the leaders that allowed this garbage to get to this point will somehow start making good decisions doesn't seem logical to me. They just cancelled the Hall of Fame Game. Do you think anyone but you and me will care if high school cross country doesn't happen this year? Covid-19 is serious! Covid-19 is not serious! It doesn't matter what side you or I are on. I want there to be CC this year. I assume you do too. You and I don't have a real say. Idiots in Houston Texan have more impact on it than you and I do. Right or Wrong.

Needs to be National standards. Then fine tuning.
 

Rohbino

Well-known member
Needs to be National standards. Then fine tuning.
Good luck getting national standards as long as we have the current imbecile in the oval office. It won't happen. Hell, the head of the coronavirus task force, that sycophant lackey named Mike Pence, hasn't met with public health officials in weeks.

What a bunch of clowns.
 

xcandtrack

New member
Sacrifice a couple old coaches, a few antique officials and a grandpa and grandma all will be good as long as I can get my top 7 kids to the line.
 
Sacrifice a couple old coaches, a few antique officials and a grandpa and grandma all will be good as long as I can get my top 7 kids to the line.
Am I misunderstanding your statement or are you just being silly? If you are serious then I think you have it a$$-backward.

Hey, I'm a grandpa....then some in age. If I feel like I am in a high risk group then "I" will stay home. I "will not" expect every other member of society, especially young people, to shuffle their lives to accommodate me. How selfish would that be? Same goes for coaches and officials. "They" should stay home if at risk or afraid, certainly not the kids!
 

pheesh

Member
Am I misunderstanding your statement or are you just being silly? If you are serious then I think you have it a$$-backward.

Hey, I'm a grandpa....then some in age. If I feel like I am in a high risk group then "I" will stay home. I "will not" expect every other member of society, especially young people, to shuffle their lives to accommodate me. How selfish would that be? Same goes for coaches and officials. "They" should stay home if at risk or afraid, certainly not the kids!
This is an interesting point. Many of the track officials I've dealt with have been retirees. What is going to be done for getting officials for meets?
 

madman

Active member
This is an interesting point. Many of the track officials I've dealt with have been retirees. What is going to be done for getting officials for meets?
By rule there has been a defined need for officials at XC meets. I am thankful for the many people who have served those roles well. However, I'm not convinced that you couldn't run a meet without them with a little creativity using the sport experts (coaches) who will be in attendance.
 

psycho_dad

Well-known member
Sorry, I was way wrong about Texas and specifically Houston. Seems like we just need to follow what they are doing and we will be back open much sooner than later. How hard is it to wear a mask, try and stay 6 feet away from others and enforce the number of people in a building? Honestly, If people can't do the simplest of things, the kids will end up paying for it again. Selfish.

Kids need to be in school. There are a lot of things that don't need to be open, but for a majority of children, they need to be in school. That needs to be moved up the list of priorities.
 

xcandtrack

New member
The word of the week is "community spread" large group events accelerate the spread throughout the community. The risks can be reduced with proper measures but not eliminated. Large scale invitational meets run as we've experienced in the passed seem unlikely. Protecting and reducing spread requires all of us to make sacrifices. Just saying don't go if you don't want to doesn't reduce the likely hood of spread. Those who get exposed at the meet might take it home at the end of the day.
My youngest daughter missed her senior year of track, I missed a season of officiating and coaching, like so may I've made sacrifices. If sacrifices need to be made this fall I'll do it to keep more people safe.
How many old coaches, antique officials and grandpas and grandmas is a XC worth to you?
 

Percidae

Member
Uh, isn't it mostly about school? XC is outside. Very low risk activity if you ask me. However, my wife is a teacher. I don't think there is any way possible that she could go in and be shut in a fully closed room with no windows and poor ventilation with 15-30 walking incubation units (i.e. students) and not get infected. In short, if there is physical school everyone will end up getting infected. I can't imagine the teacher's unions not rising up and striking if they are forced into this situation. So with no physical school, how can there be any sports? Practically speaking I think they could go ahead with outside sports in the fall with virtual classes. I tend to doubt that they would allow that arrangement to happen.
 

psycho_dad

Well-known member
I'm sure meets like Tiffin and Galion have to get some sort of permit. Will it be granted? CVNP is in a National Park with shuttle buses. It's no picnic dealing with the park service in normal years. I would think this year would be worse. Shuttle buses with only 12 people on them won't be fun to overcome. Schools will most likely have restrictions for the use of their facilities.

All the hard work is going to fall on coaches. That's if administrations even allow meets to happen. Administrations are going to do the easy thing. The minimum they are obligated to do. I see dual meets making a comeback.

The percentage of positive tests is going up. Public health officials have a job to do and like it or not, they are going to error on overly cautious. I hate to say it, but maybe guidelines are going to have to become mandates. Having a Flimflam artist/ snake oil salesman in charge has not proven to be a good thing. Allowing conspiracy theories and ignorance dictate things has not worked out well so far. Perhaps epidemiologists should have been listened to months ago and we might be further ahead.
 

Percidae

Member
The percentage of positive tests is going up. Public health officials have a job to do and like it or not, they are going to error on overly cautious. I hate to say it, but maybe guidelines are going to have to become mandates. Having a Flimflam artist/ snake oil salesman in charge has not proven to be a good thing. Allowing conspiracy theories and ignorance dictate things has not worked out well so far. Perhaps epidemiologists should have been listened to months ago and we might be further ahead.
What is your evidence that the percentage of positive tests is rising? According to Ohio stats, this is not the case:

What do you mean we should have listened to epidemiologists? Do you mean the ones that told us not to wear masks? That it would do us more harm that good? They flat out lied to our faces thinking we were idiots. Most people believed it and told me so as I sported my N95 back in March.

Flattening the curve also means lengthening the curve. We have been successful at flattening/lengthening the curve and keeping hospitals from being overrun. The downside is it will take much longer to achieve herd immunity. The all-out fear game will continue to be used for the political weapon that it is in this election year. All media reports lead with the most irrelevant yet most fear-evoking statistics. Usually the total number of cases to date to make it sound as bad as possible. There is never mention of the the flat-lined positivety rate, ICU rate, death rate. You know, the stats that really matter.

Just watch how quickly the fear switch will be turned off when the other guy wins in November.
 

5x26

Member
81 and 83 year old' s aren't human beings, so of course you are right. I don't think you understand my points at all. I want the kids to be kids. None of this should be going on, but there is no plan. There is no leadership. They already shut down schools once. It's very easy for them to not allow schools to open since they aren't open now. Kids under 18 aren't driving the economy and High School Cross Country isn't a consideration in a single decision makers thoughts. If school was scheduled to start today, I do not think it would happen. No Sports without schools. Governor of Texas isn't exactly talking of things being back to 100%.

There needs to be a coherent plan and there is not one at this time. Chaos and over reaction and under reaction is not a plan. Talk to people that deal with over run ICU's.
Learn some real facts before you spew ignorance. Hospitals are not being "over run" Not even close. They are at lower numbers now than before covid. But simple minds are often influenced by media propaganda. Cases rise with testing. In Ohio we have had 6600 positives in the last 10 days. out of 152,000 tests, a 4.3% positive rate. In Early April during the "surge" we had 3600 positives in 10 days. out of 29k tests a 12.4% positive rate. Hospitalizations here are dropping and so are deaths. over 70% of all deaths are in nursing homes. it's very clear who this kills and who it does not. Young people, healthy working age people are not on Covid's diet. Protect those that need it, and move on with life.

 

madman

Active member
Thanks for the link to the article with the Houston CEOs. That was informative.

It would be interesting to hear from people on the floor in those hospitals as well. The CEOs have a strong self-interest in presenting the image that they have everything under control, so it would be good to know if that's the view of people actually working in those environments as well.
 

psycho_dad

Well-known member
Go look at what percent of all deaths are for 65 year olds and above from disease. It's always around 80%

The deaths from covid-19 in Nursing homes and assisted living facilities accounts for 43% of all the covid-19 deaths in the US. The 80% figure is for 65 and older no matter if they are in Assisted living or not.

North Carolina just increases the number of available ICU beds available, so they are always under 90%. Even though the numbers this week that are hospitalized are well over what 100% was a few weeks ago.

They are shutting down beaches again in some states. Texas is limiting restaurants even more the Governor ordered bars to close because of the surge in cases and hospitalizations. Facts.

Madman put it best. "I would prefer to see what would happen if the current guy provided informed leadership now."

I am not the least bit afraid or panicked about covid-19. I just want there to be a plan so that kids can get back to school. A plan so that those that are vulnerable to it, are protected as much as possible. I want people to have jobs. My life has changed very little. We don't eat out or really have a date night, so once a week we are inconvenienced. My kids are suffering. Their lives are drastically different.
 
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psycho_dad

Well-known member
They increase the number of ICU beds available as needed. Not saying that is a bad thing, but it makes it nearly impossible to look at statistics and make any type of determination. (And let's make it clear, I'm not saying they are fudging the numbers to make the situation look better. I honestly think they see the need to increase ICU beds and are doing the responsible thing and making that happen.) For example, when they were at 640 covid-19 in the ICU's the percentage of ICU beds being used was higher, but there was also slightly less beds available. % of hospitals reporting changes too, although it's always about 80% when I have checked. So, it never looks any better or any worse. However, as you can see. The numbers for the month have risen. 640 at the start. 890 at the end. Now, the good news is the number of ventilators available has always been 2-3 times what was needed. The other real good news is the number of deaths has been falling. Hard to tell though if the deaths will rise as the hospitalizations have over the last month and there is just a lag. Let's hope not. I have family that lives there. They open and close things left and right. One week they can go out to eat at a place and the next it's closed because of overcrowding and/or an outbreak. Right now, I think that 10% of the positive tests they are getting are from kids under 17. Only a few of those have resulted in death. However, there have been a few deaths. Just not enough to hit 1% of the total deaths. So, it shows as 0%.

What are the decision makers going to look at? The easy stat to look at is number of cases and number of hospitalizations. They are going up.

With increased testing there are going to be more positive tests. Common sense. However, the Percentage of positive tests has stayed very steady in NC. They have been as low as 8%, but stay about 10% ish. I saw some place that other parts of the country have seen it go up from 7-8% a month ago to about 14%. Texas, AZ etc... That's not a good sign. Who knows how much of that is the tests being better and less false negatives?

The NC site is interesting because they pose a question before every graph, but leave it up to me and you to summarize the data. Does NC have the capacity to test 5000-7000 people a day. And then the graph shows they are easily 2-3 times that. The worst day is still over 5000. Why pose it as a question? Just in the graph above. Is NC seeing a 14-day downward trajectory or sustained leveling in number of people currently hospitalized? Um...NO? Not really? They seem to be making decisions based on 14-day decreases or leveling of numbers.

I do not know how to interpret all the data. My son sees things in the data and more importantly sees memos and directives from the CDC etc.. and he tells me things are going to happen weeks before they do.

How do we make it so that kids are back in school? Is distance learning a realistic thing? Is some sort of Hybrid going to work? What does it mean for athletics and is that even important at this time. I think it is. I think athletics is important. My son got to Pole Vault for the first time since January this past Thursday. It was like turning on a light switch. He's like a new man in 3 days. It matters. I do not think he will do well with distance learning in College. He needs the socialization. Some things he is very good at alone, but academics is not one of them. Self taught guitarist who will spend hours alone playing and getting better and better. Learns other things much differently. There are kids at risk of falling way behind. How do we correct that and make this coming school year happen?
 

madman

Active member
Regardless of COVID-19 related statistics, opening schools is going to be dependent on public confidence. Getting everyone back to work is going to be dependent on schools being open.

I recently had lunch with our school board president and they indicate in recent surveys in our community there is already a significant proportion of parents who have said there's no way they're sending their kids to school in the fall and we live in a community that leads strongly GOP. That makes planning for the fall very difficult.

This past spring we lived as if COVID-19 will eventually go away. I am beginning to believe that we need to learn how to live as if it will always be with us. Most viruses don't have vaccines. Despite all the hopeful words in the media, it shouldn't surprise anyone if we never have an effective vaccine. We've learned to live with the common cold, I think we're going to need to learn to live with this new virus as well.
 

Percidae

Member
Go look at what percent of all deaths are for 65 year olds and above from disease. It's always around 80%

The deaths from covid-19 in Nursing homes and assisted living facilities accounts for 43% of all the covid-19 deaths in the US. The 80% figure is for 65 and older no matter if they are in Assisted living or not.

North Carolina just increases the number of available ICU beds available, so they are always under 90%. Even though the numbers this week that are hospitalized are well over what 100% was a few weeks ago.

They are shutting down beaches again in some states. Texas is limiting restaurants even more the Governor ordered bars to close because of the surge in cases and hospitalizations. Facts.

Madman put it best. "I would prefer to see what would happen if the current guy provided informed leadership now."

I am not the least bit afraid or panicked about covid-19. I just want there to be a plan so that kids can get back to school. A plan so that those that are vulnerable to it, are protected as much as possible. I want people to have jobs. My life has changed very little. We don't eat out or really have a date night, so once a week we are inconvenienced. My kids are suffering. Their lives are drastically different.
Do you understand you are advocating the exact opposite sides at the same time? To be clear though, by "the current guy" I assume you mean POTUS, correct? What would you have him do? He has a plan that is quite clear and is really in your best interest to get your kids back to school. His plan is push the decisions down to local leaders where they understand best their current health situations and local constituent proclivities. If these decisions are made at the highest level, that would mean there would be no chance of anyone being able to do anything until every last ICU bed is empty across the entire country. The petty national media would not allow for anything else.

Having said that, it is going to be very hard for superintendents and school boards to allow kids to go back to physical school unless there is a strong demand for it within the community. By allowing local control there is at least a chance. The stat I heard this weekend is that 2/3rds of people in Ohio would like physical school to proceed this coming fall. That is a strong number but perhaps not strong enough to give cover to decision makers.

So your best course of action is to stop complaining about the lack of leadership at the POTUS level and start actively coercing your local officials to sack-up and make the tough call to get back to school. Our political leaders at the federal level should help local officials by providing legal protection so that schools don’t get sued when folks start falling ill.
 

mathking

Active member
Regardless of COVID-19 related statistics, opening schools is going to be dependent on public confidence. Getting everyone back to work is going to be dependent on schools being open.

I recently had lunch with our school board president and they indicate in recent surveys in our community there is already a significant proportion of parents who have said there's no way they're sending their kids to school in the fall and we live in a community that leads strongly GOP. That makes planning for the fall very difficult.

This past spring we lived as if COVID-19 will eventually go away. I am beginning to believe that we need to learn how to live as if it will always be with us. Most viruses don't have vaccines. Despite all the hopeful words in the media, it shouldn't surprise anyone if we never have an effective vaccine. We've learned to live with the common cold, I think we're going to need to learn to live with this new virus as well.
Madman, on the vaccine front, I have a couple of former students and a couple of college friends who are all working directly or indirectly on vaccines now. Plus a few more in epidemiology and pharma research in general who all think we will have a vaccine eventually. They said that there has never been this many people, this much money and this much computing power thrown at finding and producing a vaccine. There are lots of viruses with vaccines, and those are mostly the more serious viruses, where finding a vaccine was more imperative.

That said, we also need to develop affordable rapid testing. We could largely control it now if we had a 20 minute test like for flu or step. You identify those who are sick and they isolate. It would still be a danger, but not a fundamentally alter the course of society kind of problem. But that would also require people to self-quarantine if they get it or are exposed, which seems somewhat unlikely in the current environment.

It is also worth noting that polls show a lot of people (20-25%, maybe more) say they will refuse to use a vaccine once one is developed.
 
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madman

Active member
Every virus is different, but if it was simply a matter of money I would think there would be a vaccine for malaria which infects 300-600 million people a year and kills 3000 children/day. How about the common cold which infects every adult in the US on average 2-4 times every year?

I am glad people are hopeful and lots of attention is being put on creating a vaccine, but there is no guarantee and there is no telling how many years it might take (HIV/AIDs?).

Even if there is eventually a vaccine, there's no telling its duration and effectiveness.

I don't think we should hold up our lives today as if it's just a few more weeks or months until there's a vaccine that will allow us to go back to living what were "normal" lives. We need a new normal but not one predicated on a forthcoming vaccine that may never happen.
 
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I don't think we should hold up our lives
We need a new normal but not one predicated on a forthcoming vaccine that may never happen.
I agree and there are a lot of very at-risk kids that cannot afford to miss any additional schooling. Some may never recover from the gap that they have already been slapped with. In my eyes that risk is inherently more dangerous than what the virus presents for that age bracket.
 

mathking

Active member
Every virus is different, but if it was simply a matter of money I would think there would be a vaccine for malaria which infects 300-600 million people a year and kills 3000 children/day. How about the common cold which infects every adult in the US on average 2-4 times every year?

I am glad people are hopeful and lots of attention is being put on creating a vaccine, but there is no guarantee and there is no telling how many years it might take (HIV/AIDs?).

Even if there is eventually a vaccine, there's no telling its duration and effectiveness.

I don't think we should hold up our lives today as if it's just a few more weeks or months until there's a vaccine that will allow us to go back to living what were "normal" lives. We need a new normal but not one predicated on a forthcoming vaccine that may never happen.
We have surpassed the total ever spent on malaria research already. There really isn’t any research ever except for the race for nuclear weapons like the efforts underway. And it’s not just money. We are using computational techniques and computing power at a previously unheard of level, because they just didn’t exist. Vaccines for viruses like this one are very likely to be periodic ( every year or couple of years) things. Just like getting this is unlikely to provide long term immunity. I am not definitely saying that we just hang on until a vaccine and then everything will be OK. Even if we get an almost perfect vaccine that lasts for years we will have millions, maybe billions who refuse to get it. But we also shouldn’t be doing what a lot of the country did, and acting like there is nothing we can do so we do nothing. Right now the hanging on needs to be adapting to masks and distancing until we get rapid, widely available testing. We lost our chance to just beat it this winter by not reacting better. But we won’t be able to avoid this new normal until we can at the least quickly and accurately test for the virus.
 

psycho_dad

Well-known member
Learn some real facts before you spew ignorance. Hospitals are not being "over run" Not even close. They are at lower numbers now than before covid. But simple minds are often influenced by media propaganda. Cases rise with testing. In Ohio we have had 6600 positives in the last 10 days. out of 152,000 tests, a 4.3% positive rate. In Early April during the "surge" we had 3600 positives in 10 days. out of 29k tests a 12.4% positive rate. Hospitalizations here are dropping and so are deaths. over 70% of all deaths are in nursing homes. it's very clear who this kills and who it does not. Young people, healthy working age people are not on Covid's diet. Protect those that need it, and move on with life.


Coronavirus cases in Texas are surging, and may soon put ICUs at "unsustainable" capacity.


 

psycho_dad

Well-known member
Another encouraging development. American Pediatric Association put out a statement saying that children need to physically be back in school this coming school year. I saw it, but now can't find it. Let's hope they have a plan to make it happen safely. Essentially saying risk of young children having problems form the virus is less than the problems they would have as a result of not going to school.
 

mathking

Active member
Another encouraging development. American Pediatric Association put out a statement saying that children need to physically be back in school this coming school year. I saw it, but now can't find it. Let's hope they have a plan to make it happen safely. Essentially saying risk of young children having problems form the virus is less than the problems they would have as a result of not going to school.
 

psycho_dad

Well-known member
whew... AAP not APA... I couldn't think of the right name to save my life. I saw it, wanted to get back to it, but I had gotten to it from another link. Thank you.
 
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