Turnout

lc5397 said:
It’s an edge if it increases overall voter turnout and higher turnout benefits one party over the other.
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There is high enthusiasm for Trump on the right...you dont think any of those people are voting early?
 
lotr10 said:
I've twice tried to vote early at the Butler County elections board and BOTH times there was a massive crowd waiting to vote and I didn't even bother getting in line. The demographics of those voting that I saw were 100% white, middle aged and older, and this in a county that went 63% for Trump in 2016.

Friends of mine in Clermont Country also report very long lines for voting there to. Last election Trump got 67% of this vote.

The assumption that most of the early voters and mail in voters are democrats may be one of the biggest misses this election cycle.
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Agreed. But there will be massive turnout which usually favors the dems. And it probably will this time. Not to mention the pissed off soccer mom vote.
 
y2h said:
There is high enthusiasm for Trump on the right...you dont think any of those people are voting early?
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Sure they are. Just like they voted enthusiastically in 2016. And their ceiling is in the 40 percent range. If the other 60 percent turns out and goes Biden (not saying it will) you would have a historic blowout. Again...that’s how math works.
 
FlierNut said:
Agreed. But there will be massive turnout which usually favors the dems. And it probably will this time. Not to mention the pissed off soccer mom vote.
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The soccer moms paying higher taxes and energy costs under Biden?
 
FlierNut said:
You hillbillies love to talk about the polls. The polls were mostly right, even at the state level. The states that handed douche clown the election all had polls fall well under the margin of error....

The most inaccurate poll, which didn’t take into account the last 2 weeks was off because late deciders broke for trump 2 weeks before voting day.

Can Trump win in 2020? Absolutely. And Bowling Green could beat Alabama. But it’s not likely.
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I wear the hillbilly badge with honor.
 
I think realisticall, you’re looking at a 53-47 type of election loss for trump. Dems tends to stay home when not motivated. GOP tends to vote no matter what. I can assure you, the blue vote is angry and motivated.
 
FlierNut said:
Agreed. But there will be massive turnout which usually favors the dems. And it probably will this time. Not to mention the pissed off soccer mom vote.
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Maybe, maybe not. Most of this huge turnout may just be early voting and the equivalent of robbing Peter to pay Paul.
 
lotr10 said:
I've twice tried to vote early at the Butler County elections board and BOTH times there was a massive crowd waiting to vote and I didn't even bother getting in line. The demographics of those voting that I saw were 100% white, middle aged and older, and this in a county that went 63% for Trump in 2016.

Friends of mine in Clermont Country also report very long lines for voting there to. Last election Trump got 67% of this vote.

The assumption that most of the early voters and mail in voters are democrats may be one of the biggest misses this election cycle.
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Lmao, I don't think anyone would expect those 2 counties to be crawling with Democrats lol
 
SC10EHS15 said:
Lmao, I don't think anyone would expect those 2 counties to be crawling with Democrats lol
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True but if Trump can run up huge margins of victory in Warren, Butler & Clermont he has a great chance to win Ohio again. Remember those where the counties that put GW Bush over the top in Ohio and the election in 2004.
 
lotr10 said:
True but if Trump can run up huge margins of victory in Warren, Butler & Clermont he has a great chance to win Ohio again. Remember those where the counties that put GW Bush over the top in Ohio and the election in 2004.
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How did those counties vote in 8 and 12? What was turnout compared to 2000 and 04? Asking for a friend.
 
FlierNut said:
How did those counties vote in 8 and 12? What was turnout compared to 2000 and 04? Asking for a friend.
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Look it up yourself. But my guess is that TO was down because republicans were demoralized in 2008 and Romney ran a crappy campaign 2012. I suspect that enthusiasm for Trump in those 3 counties is way higher then it was for Romney & McCain.
 
lotr10 said:
Look it up yourself. But my guess is that TO was down because republicans were demoralized in 2008 and Romney ran a crappy campaign 2012. I suspect that enthusiasm for Trump in those 3 counties is way higher then it was for Romney & McCain.
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You really think turnout was down in '08? Of all years?! By the way...turnout was lower in Ohio in 2016 than it was in 2008 or 2012.
 
ProV1 said:
S

So they are standing in 10 hour lines this week instead? Interesting theory.
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I will be at my polling place in Soulon on Election Day casting my ballot.

I was strongly behind Biden until this damning email evidence was brought forward.
 
lotr10 said:
Look it up yourself. But my guess is that TO was down because republicans were demoralized in 2008 and Romney ran a crappy campaign 2012. I suspect that enthusiasm for Trump in those 3 counties is way higher then it was for Romney & McCain.
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Turnout has increased steadily since 2000 in Butler county. Has been between 170kand175k in subsequent elections (Presidential). Even 2018 only dropped to 138k. That’s pretty high turnout for an off year. You suspect wrong. Care to make a wager about Hamilton and Franklin county turnout numbers?
 
SC10EHS15 said:
You really think turnout was down in '08? Of all years?! By the way...turnout was lower in Ohio in 2016 than it was in 2008 or 2012.
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Read what I said more carefully. I think TO was down among republicans in deeply red counties like Warren, Butler & Clermont.
 
lotr10 said:
Look it up yourself. But my guess is that TO was down because republicans were demoralized in 2008 and Romney ran a crappy campaign 2012. I suspect that enthusiasm for Trump in those 3 counties is way higher then it was for Romney & McCain.
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So, in terms of voter turnout from 2000-2016:
2008
2004
2012
2016
2000

Also, Butler, Clermont and Warren were all overwhelmingly red in 2008 and 2012, like they always are.
 
FlierNut said:
Turnout has increased steadily since 2000 in Butler county. Has been between 170kand175k in subsequent elections (Presidential). Even 2018 only dropped to 138k. That’s pretty high turnout for an off year. You suspect wrong. Care to make a wager about Hamilton and Franklin county turnout numbers?
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TO should be reported as % of registered or eligible voters not by total numbers of voters as population has grown steadily in Clermont, Warren & Butler counties.

I'm not sure what you guys are arguing here. Are you saying that TO among republicans & conservatives in these 3 counties isn't important to the upcoming election?
 
SC10EHS15 said:
So, in terms of voter turnout from 2000-2016:
2008
2004
2012
2016
2000

Also, Butler, Clermont and Warren were all overwhelmingly red in 2008 and 2012, like they always are.
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I believe in all three of these red counties over 30% of the voters picked Obama. TO among those voters was very high. Again I suspect it was lower among the republican base - particularly in 2008.

Also both Butler & Warren county have a relatively large number of establishment republicans who were hostile to Trump in 2016. Many of them had to hold their noses to vote for him that year. And some of them either didn't vote for POTUS that year or picked a 3rd party candidate. Today there are a lot less of those kinds of republican voters. Even if they still don't like Trump they're happy to vote for him against Biden in 2020.
 
lotr10 said:
I believe in all three of these red counties over 30% of the voters picked Obama. TO among those voters was very high. Again I suspect it was lower among the republican base - particularly in 2008.

Also both Butler & Warren county have a relatively large number of establishment republicans who were hostile to Trump in 2016. Many of them had to hold their noses to vote for him that year. And some of them either didn't vote for POTUS that year or picked a 3rd party candidate. Today there are a lot less of those kinds of republican voters. Even if they still don't like Trump they're happy to vote for him against Biden in 2020.
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Red votes in these 3 counties, from 2000-2016:
2000: Butler - 86,567 out of 136,737 (63.3%); Clermont - 47,129 out of 69,877 (67.4%); Warren - 48,318 out of 69,078 (69.9%)
2004: Butler - 109,872 out of 166,819 (65.9%); Clermont - 62,949 out of 89,079 (70.7%); Warren - 68,037 out of 94,422 (72.1%)
2008: Butler - 105,340 out of 173,776 (60.6%); Clermont - 62,559 out of 95,480 (65.5%); Warren - 71,691 out of 106,216 (67.5%)
2012: Butler - 105,176 out of 169,703 (61.9%); Clermont - 64,208 out of 96,010 (66.9%); Warren - 76,561 out of 110,724 (69.2%)
2016: Butler - 106,976 out of 173,839 (61.5%); Clermont - 67,518 out of 99,121 (68.1%); Warren - 77,643 out of 117,267 (66.2%)

Looks like turnout is pretty consistent across all 3 counties in terms of percentages. Definitely a drop in 2008, but only 2 instances (both in 2004) of the GOP getting 70+% of the vote. Looks like Dems typically get around 30%, give or take a few % points, in each of these counties. Warren being the most red, Butler being the "least" of the 3. Surprising to see Warren drop the most from 2012 to 2016...

Also, why would they vote for him over Biden as opposed to just voting 3rd party again if they don't like him?
 
OldSoulon said:
I was strongly behind Biden until this damning email evidence was brought forward.
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As shown in the twitter / facebook censorship over the last two days, I'm thinking that in the case that Biden wins this will be the last time big tech doesn't decide the election.

Politics won't matter any more. Dems will abandon anti-trust and disregard 1st amendment protections as our new big tech controllers will determine everything through controlling all messaging and influence. You can already see it affecting Republicans in their lack of action on section 230.
 
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