The Unpredictability of Tournament Baseball

N

NLLBEST

Active member
If you add up all of the votes in the 4 threads predicting who will be state champion this year only 9 of 203 votes correctly chose the state champions D1-D4. It could be an odd year but it’s pretty amazing to me that even after district play less than 5% of all voters could accurately predict who would take home titles in each division. No team received more than 4 votes, below is a breakdown of each division.
D1 Northview 1 of 65
D2 Chardon 2 of 57
D3 Waynedale 4 of 45
D4 Russia 2 of 36
 
 
HS football their are only a handful of teams that are going to contend for a state title - year in and year out - in baseball a good program with good pitching can win a title. Baseball is somewhat similar to bball in a teams chances to win a state title.
 
Stirred not Shaken said:
HS football their are only a handful of teams that are going to contend for a state title - year in and year out - in baseball a good program with good pitching can win a title. Baseball is somewhat similar to bball in a teams chances to win a state title.
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HS football the better teams win a higher percentage than on hoops or baseball. You can usually just impose your will on football to dominate.

Went to the D1 and 2 finals so I saw a lot of #2s and 3s and some 4s likely.....only one I was impressed with, stuff wise, was northview in D1. Wanna say they were in the peewee division in the early 90s.

Chardons guy didn't hit above 77 but kept it low with good breaking balls.


Hoben bought a guy on late who hit 87-88 but gave up a few hits and go ahead runs.

I guess I was expecting D1 and 2 to have more guys with amazing stuff or maybe, just maybe, that D1 and 2 being untouchable is a fallacy.
 
Baseball is a very difficult sport to win a state title in, here in Ohio.

D3: projected 2nd round pick RHP throws in the semi’s, his team loses the semi.

D4: tOSU signee LHP is saved for the state title game; his team loses the title game.

The OHSBCA 1’s in D2, D3, D4 all died in the Sweet 16. Moeller (#1 in D1) would later lose in the Elite 8.

Think that one of the complicating factors is, in preparing for regionals, you don’t always have the best idea who you’re facing and when preparing for state it’s basically a chess match on writing the lineup cards. It’s also harder to gameplan in baseball for a specific game beyond districts than it is football, or baseball.
 
Do teams advance scout or just go off stats they find? We always had a pitch chart of at least 2 games of what pitcher threw in what county....many were very predictable.
But yeah...baseball the better team wins less than the other sports...no doubt.
 
thavoice said:
Do teams advance scout or just go off stats they find? We always had a pitch chart of at least 2 games of what pitcher threw in what county....many were very predictable.
But yeah...baseball the better team wins less than the other sports...no doubt.
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I believe most teams try and get coaches (usually freshman coaches) to a game or two to scout before playing their opponent. In NWO most of the D1 teams are pretty familiar with each other but in D2-4 the district is fairly spread out and I think it makes the results pretty unpredictable and interesting year to year.
 
thavoice said:
HS football the better teams win a higher percentage than on hoops or baseball. You can usually just impose your will on football to dominate.

Went to the D1 and 2 finals so I saw a lot of #2s and 3s and some 4s likely.....only one I was impressed with, stuff wise, was northview in D1. Wanna say they were in the peewee division in the early 90s.

Chardons guy didn't hit above 77 but kept it low with good breaking balls.


Hoben bought a guy on late who hit 87-88 but gave up a few hits and go ahead runs.

I guess I was expecting D1 and 2 to have more guys with amazing stuff or maybe, just maybe, that D1 and 2 being untouchable is a fallacy.but
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Good points. I saw some of the games as well. The pitching speed at times seemed slower than I expected. I sort of had the same thought that you did. I was telling my son that growing up in the 80s I thought high school pitchers were throwing 90mph. At least that's what they all said they threw. lol.
 
thavoice said:
HS football the better teams win a higher percentage than on hoops or baseball. You can usually just impose your will on football to dominate.

Went to the D1 and 2 finals so I saw a lot of #2s and 3s and some 4s likely.....only one I was impressed with, stuff wise, was northview in D1. Wanna say they were in the peewee division in the early 90s.

Chardons guy didn't hit above 77 but kept it low with good breaking balls.


Hoben bought a guy on late who hit 87-88 but gave up a few hits and go ahead runs.

I guess I was expecting D1 and 2 to have more guys with amazing stuff or maybe, just maybe, that D1 and 2 being untouchable is a fallacy.
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Both of the pitcher's you mentioned are Division I commit's. However, I do not think either of the pitchers will pitch in college. I think they are both projected to be infielders in college.
 
alan41 said:
Good points. I saw some of the games as well. The pitching speed at times seemed slower than I expected. I sort of had the same thought that you did. I was telling my son that growing up in the 80s I thought high school pitchers were throwing 90mph. At least that's what they all said they threw. lol.
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There was one guy,we pegged as the pitchers dad, that was pretty boisterous, that the gun ess broke or slower than reality

I think it was fine as no one was loeing guys away consistently.
 
I thought Badin was easily the best team in the D2 final four the last two years and lost in the semis each time. They had two guys throwing at 90 or close to it with wipeout sliders as well. D1 commits up the middle at catcher, ss and cf plus a good 2b. I don't have answers as the game with Hoban was just a weird game and last year they were shut out by Bloom Carroll. Badin plays a great schedule with some of the best D1 teams in SW Ohio in addition to their league schedule. They just seem to be snakebit.
I like Chardons team. They don't care who they are playing they just keep getting after ya. Loved it!
 
The Dock said:
Baseball is a very difficult sport to win a state title in, here in Ohio.

D3: projected 2nd round pick RHP throws in the semi’s, his team loses the semi.

D4: tOSU signee LHP is saved for the state title game; his team loses the title game.

The OHSBCA 1’s in D2, D3, D4 all died in the Sweet 16. Moeller (#1 in D1) would later lose in the Elite 8.

Think that one of the complicating factors is, in preparing for regionals, you don’t always have the best idea who you’re facing and when preparing for state it’s basically a chess match on writing the lineup cards. It’s also harder to gameplan in baseball for a specific game beyond districts than it is football, or baseball.
Click to expand...
......I have long held the belief that the majority of your seniors will quit on you once league play is concluded. I don't mean that they will leave the team, I mean that they are ready for it to be over. You don't see it too much in football, because they still have over half the school year to get through. You do see it to some extent in basketball, but you definitely see it in the state baseball tournament. They are good kids, nice players, but they are ready to get on with the next chapter of their lives. College, summer job, summer team, or getting a real job, they are ready to put H.S behind them. IMO, you have a much better shot at making a deep run in the state tournament if your team is Junior dominant.
 
I think they should do what the colleges do but I know I'm going to get a lot of hate on this one.
 
Some states limit who gets into the tournament and plays double hitters on Thursday and a rubber game if needed Friday or Saturday.
 
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