The Official 2023 Cincinnati Reds Thread

Gh0st

Gh0st

Well-known member
wolves82 said:
Thank you Nick Krall !!!

Again, reminds me of Brad Pitt in Moneyball trading that guy so the manager could not keep playing him.
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At least I'm not the only one confused by some of these moves. I completely understand DFAing Renfroe, but the sequence of events makes me think there has to be some kind of disagreement between Bell and the front office. The guys they've been DFAing in the second half of the season seem to get a lot of playing time and key at bats over everyday players right before getting axed.

I guess the other argument would be giving them their fair shake before cutting them loose, but that's something you do in Spring Training, not in the midst of a playoff race.
 
AEW Champion

AEW Champion

Well-known member
Gh0st said:
At least I'm not the only one confused by some of these moves. I completely understand DFAing Renfroe, but the sequence of events makes me think there has to be some kind of disagreement between Bell and the front office. The guys they've been DFAing in the second half of the season seem to get a lot of playing time and key at bats over everyday players right before getting axed.

I guess the other argument would be giving them their fair shake before cutting them loose, but that's something you do in Spring Training, not in the midst of a playoff race.
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Part of the issue is that productive hitters like Benson and Marte end up hitting at the bottom of the lineup for whatever reason. Both those guys had good nights tonight and were hitting 8 and 9. Meanwhile we’ve recently seen cooled-off Martini hit second and Renfroe hit third and fourth, with Bader lead off or hit in the middle of the lineup. There seems to be no rhyme or reason to a lot of the order other than dogmatic adherence to righty-lefty.
 
AEW Champion

AEW Champion

Well-known member
Connor Phillips was excellent tonight. If he can continue to dot the strike zone with high 90s heat like he did tonight, he’d definitely be in line for a playoff start, IMO.

Benson and Steer were both locked in, too.
 
Gh0st

Gh0st

Well-known member
AEW Champion said:
Part of the issue is that productive hitters like Benson and Marte end up hitting at the bottom of the lineup for whatever reason. Both those guys had good nights tonight and were hitting 8 and 9. Meanwhile we’ve recently seen cooled-off Martini hit second and Renfroe hit third and fourth, with Bader lead off or hit in the middle of the lineup. There seems to be no rhyme or reason to a lot of the order other than dogmatic adherence to righty-lefty.
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I know Bell is obsessed with the righty-lefty matchups, watched him do it with the pitcher batting prior to the DH rule. I also agree, the lineup order doesn't make a lot of sense most nights. The message between the front office and manager just seems at odds, which is strange after extending the man for 3 years.
 
I

Indiandad

Well-known member
Gh0st said:
At least I'm not the only one confused by some of these moves. I completely understand DFAing Renfroe, but the sequence of events makes me think there has to be some kind of disagreement between Bell and the front office. The guys they've been DFAing in the second half of the season seem to get a lot of playing time and key at bats over everyday players right before getting axed.

I guess the other argument would be giving them their fair shake before cutting them loose, but that's something you do in Spring Training, not in the midst of a playoff race.
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Maybe Bell is trying to get fired.

He got a nice extension and then get canned and paid to take a 3 year vacation.
 
wolves82

wolves82

Well-known member
Phillips gave the Reds a huge shot in the arm last night! Welcome back Will Benson - why was this guy benched for Renfroe/Bader so often?

Can't believe I'm doing this Sept 19th - but 5 teams within 2 games, fighting for two playoff spots - what fun.

Dbacks (79-72, 11 to play) - SF (2), @NYY (3), @CHW (3), HOU (3)
Cubs (78-72, 12 to play) - PIT (3), COL (3), @atl (3), @MIL (3)
Reds (79-73, 10 to play) - MIN (2), PIT (3), @CLE (2), @STL (3)
Marlins (78-73, 11 to play) - NYM (2), MIL (3), @NYM (3), @PIT (3)
Giants (76-74, 12 to play) - @AZ (2), @ LAD (4), SD (3), LAD (3)

I kind of think the Giants are toast, even though they are only 1.5 games out. Killer schedule. Beyond that, it is up for grabs. Go get it young Reds!
 
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Indiandad

Well-known member
wolves82 said:
Phillips gave the Reds a huge shot in the arm last night! Welcome back Will Benson - why was this guy benched for Renfroe/Bader so often?

Can't believe I'm doing this Sept 19th - but 5 teams within 2 games, fighting for two playoff spots - what fun.

Dbacks (79-72, 11 to play) - SF (2), @NYY (3), @CHW (3), HOU (3)
Cubs (78-72, 12 to play) - PIT (3), COL (3), @atl (3), @MIL (3)
Reds (79-73, 10 to play) - MIN (2), PIT (3), @CLE (2), @STL (3)
Marlins (78-73, 11 to play) - NYM (2), MIL (3), @NYM (3), @PIT (3)
Giants (76-74, 12 to play) - @AZ (2), @ LAD (4), SD (3), LAD (3)

I kind of think the Giants are toast, even though they are only 1.5 games out. Killer schedule. Beyond that, it is up for grabs. Go get it young Reds!
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Will 7 more wins be enough?

Can they win 7 of the last 10?
 
14Red

14Red

Well-known member
wolves82 said:
Thank you Nick Krall !!!

Again, reminds me of Brad Pitt in Moneyball trading that guy so the manager could not keep playing him.
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When we picked up Bader and Renfroe, I was ok with it because we were banged up and needed some bats, but when they struggled and Bell kept them in the lineup ahead of Friedl, Fraley and Benson, it became very frustrating. The bad part about analytics, you can twist stats anyway you want to justify a particular stance.
 
14Red

14Red

Well-known member
AEW Champion said:
Connor Phillips was excellent tonight. If he can continue to dot the strike zone with high 90s heat like he did tonight, he’d definitely be in line for a playoff start, IMO.

Benson and Steer were both locked in, too.
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HUGE start by Phillips last night. One, it gives us a long start, two, Bell should have the entire bullpen for tonight's TBA game and with Greene tomorrow, I'd think minimum 5-6 innings for him so we have no reason not to "go all in" tonight. Alexis Diaz has not pitched since Friday, so if he needs to pitch two days in a row, he should be able to. We're off Thursday too. Time to take the training wheels off the pitchers.
 
14Red

14Red

Well-known member
wolves82 said:
Phillips gave the Reds a huge shot in the arm last night! Welcome back Will Benson - why was this guy benched for Renfroe/Bader so often?

Can't believe I'm doing this Sept 19th - but 5 teams within 2 games, fighting for two playoff spots - what fun.

Dbacks (79-72, 11 to play) - SF (2), @NYY (3), @CHW (3), HOU (3)
Cubs (78-72, 12 to play) - PIT (3), COL (3), @atl (3), @MIL (3)
Reds (79-73, 10 to play) - MIN (2), PIT (3), @CLE (2), @STL (3)
Marlins (78-73, 11 to play) - NYM (2), MIL (3), @NYM (3), @PIT (3)
Giants (76-74, 12 to play) - @AZ (2), @ LAD (4), SD (3), LAD (3)

I kind of think the Giants are toast, even though they are only 1.5 games out. Killer schedule. Beyond that, it is up for grabs. Go get it young Reds!
Click to expand...
The Marlins just swept the Braves over the weekend, so while these are nice to look at, each game, each day is worth 1 game, and there are no locks. Look at last night, the Twins were facing a kid who was in triple A a few weeks ago, having his 3 major league start vs. Joe Ryan, who's had 27 starts this year, is 10-10 on a division leading team. It was one of the Reds easiest wins in the last few weeks.
 
AEW Champion

AEW Champion

Well-known member
14Red said:
The Marlins just swept the Braves over the weekend, so while these are nice to look at, each game, each day is worth 1 game, and there are no locks. Look at last night, the Twins were facing a kid who was in triple A a few weeks ago, having his 3 major league start vs. Joe Ryan, who's had 27 starts this year, is 10-10 on a division leading team. It was one of the Reds easiest wins in the last few weeks.
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Joe Ryan has been terrible the second half of the season. I saw a Twins fan mention last night that he’s allowed 21 home runs in his last 57 innings pitched. That’s astronomical. I was glad the Reds got to face him.
 
R

RazorRamon

Active member
Elly is definitely in a funk and his slump is effecting his fielding to. None of this is permanent for a 21 year old rookie but I won’t be surprised if he finds some pine down the stretch. My lineup today:

Friedl CF
Marte SS
Steer LF
Votto 1B
Benson RF
India 2B
Fraley DH
Stephenson C
Elly 3B
 
R

RazorRamon

Active member
Hopefully Lively can pitch well today. I don’t understand the giving the ball to Cruz first and then Lively. Wouldn’t it be better to let Lively start the game?
 
14Red

14Red

Well-known member
RazorRamon said:
Hopefully Lively can pitch well today. I don’t understand the giving the ball to Cruz first and then Lively. Wouldn’t it be better to let Lively start the game?
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I'm with you, they've done this specifically with Lively for the 3rd time. Maybe he doesn't like to start games? Maybe the rationale is to get Lively used to coming into games mid-inning? For me, Bell's mindset should be that all is available and Diaz can go 2 innings if needed. I look for Greene to go minimum 6 tomorrow so you'll only need to cover 3 innings tomorrow and you're off Thursday.
 
wolves82

wolves82

Well-known member
RazorRamon said:
Elly is definitely in a funk and his slump is effecting his fielding to. None of this is permanent for a 21 year old rookie but I won’t be surprised if he finds some pine down the stretch. My lineup today:

Friedl CF
Marte SS
Steer LF
Votto 1B
Benson RF
India 2B
Fraley DH
Stephenson C
Elly 3B
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Yeah Elly is struggling. If (when) McLain is back next week it may well be McLain at SS, Marte at 3B and India at 2B most games. Elly can hopefully work some things out still this year, but I still have every confidence that he will be great in the future. He probably has zero experience dealing with a slump, it can all be worked out...
 
wolves82

wolves82

Well-known member
14Red said:
The Marlins just swept the Braves over the weekend, so while these are nice to look at, each game, each day is worth 1 game, and there are no locks. Look at last night, the Twins were facing a kid who was in triple A a few weeks ago, having his 3 major league start vs. Joe Ryan, who's had 27 starts this year, is 10-10 on a division leading team. It was one of the Reds easiest wins in the last few weeks.
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So each game counts as 1 game? Wow we did not know that. Thanks!

I did not mention any locks. I put the schedules there for reference so we know who to root for. I do think being 1.5 behind with the hardest schedule makes SF unlikely...
 
R

RazorRamon

Active member
Mapping out the Reds last ten games for pitching. It’s actually comical that they’re contending with three rookies starting a lot of these games. So Greene on Wednesday, Abbott, Williamson and I’m assuming Phillips against the Pirates. Should be able to finish out the season with those four.
 
14Red

14Red

Well-known member
wolves82 said:
So each game counts as 1 game? Wow we did not know that. Thanks!

I did not mention any locks. I put the schedules there for reference so we know who to root for. I do think being 1.5 behind with the hardest schedule makes SF unlikely...
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I don't disagree, but the Giants have pretty good starting pitching, and that's what matters this time of year.
 
14Red

14Red

Well-known member
RazorRamon said:
Mapping out the Reds last ten games for pitching. It’s actually comical that they’re contending with three rookies starting a lot of these games. So Greene on Wednesday, Abbott, Williamson and I’m assuming Phillips against the Pirates. Should be able to finish out the season with those four.
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It is crazy that this team, with all the starting pitching inconsistencies, has been somehow able to hang around. Now I do feel part of this is just today's baseball, when you look around and we see the teams we play, most are kind of the same way. Limited starters, low innings, lots of relief pitchers who throw gas. We've just been somehow able to scratch out enough wins to stay in the race.
 
oxat622

oxat622

Well-known member
wolves82 said:
Phillips gave the Reds a huge shot in the arm last night! Welcome back Will Benson - why was this guy benched for Renfroe/Bader so often?

Can't believe I'm doing this Sept 19th - but 5 teams within 2 games, fighting for two playoff spots - what fun.

Dbacks (79-72, 11 to play) - SF (2), @NYY (3), @CHW (3), HOU (3)
Cubs (78-72, 12 to play) - PIT (3), COL (3), @atl (3), @MIL (3)
Reds (79-73, 10 to play) - MIN (2), PIT (3), @CLE (2), @STL (3)
Marlins (78-73, 11 to play) - NYM (2), MIL (3), @NYM (3), @PIT (3)
Giants (76-74, 12 to play) - @AZ (2), @ LAD (4), SD (3), LAD (3)

I kind of think the Giants are toast, even though they are only 1.5 games out. Killer schedule. Beyond that, it is up for grabs. Go get it young Reds!
Click to expand...
With how up and down all of these teams are, having the fewest remaining games seems advantageous - fewer opportunities to lose.
 
S

Spartacus1987

Well-known member
RazorRamon said:
Elly is definitely in a funk and his slump is effecting his fielding to. None of this is permanent for a 21 year old rookie but I won’t be surprised if he finds some pine down the stretch. My lineup today:

Friedl CF
Marte SS
Steer LF
Votto 1B
Benson RF
India 2B
Fraley DH
Stephenson C
Elly 3B
Click to expand...
He’s not in a funk, he’s just not very good. Only outlier is at the very beginning of the season when he was elite and then teams figured out he can’t hit the off speed stuff. After that he’s been pretty bad.
 
wolves82

wolves82

Well-known member
Spartacus1987 said:
He’s not in a funk, he’s just not very good. Only outlier is at the very beginning of the season when he was elite and then teams figured out he can’t hit the off speed stuff. After that he’s been pretty bad.
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Allow me to summarize your position:
- Everything he did in the minors from 2019 -> May 2023, plus June and July 2023 in the MLB, is the outlier. The last 6 weeks is reality.
- Every other baseball expert is wrong about Elly, but you are correct.
- Baseball players never learn or improve after age 21.

Sounds like you might be not so smart.
 
S

Spartacus1987

Well-known member
wolves82 said:
Allow me to summarize your position:
- Everything he did in the minors from 2019 -> May 2023, plus June and July 2023 in the MLB, is the outlier. The last 6 weeks is reality.
- Every other baseball expert is wrong about Elly, but you are correct.
- Baseball players never learn or improve after age 21.

Sounds like you might be not so smart.
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Don’t care what he did in the minors, all that matters for the Reds is what he does in a Reds uniform. I may not be the brightest bulb in the box but you surely aren’t the sharpest tool in the shed either.
 
M

MitSulHer

Well-known member
wolves82 said:
I think 7-3 is certainly good enough - that result is 86-76. I suspect 85 wins gets it done. It is definitely going to go down to the final weekend, barring something unusual...
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To this ..................
I said below a month ago.........on August 24th (page 102)

-------------------------------------------------
How about this.

67-61 right now
6-5 road trip
73-66 record
13-10 last 23 games
86-76 final record, that is a .530 winning % and i think gets them into the playoffs

So they go 19-15 the rest of the way. That is doable.
-------------------------------------------------

Hope they can get it done. 12-12 so far. 6-4 needed for the 85 win mark wolves mentioned above.
 
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