I will be shocked - albeit pleasantly shocked, if Castellenos comes back. His agent is Scott Boros and he's not a team friendly guy to work with. His wife and kid love Cincy, but this isn't about them. And the Reds will be looked at by many fans as cheap and not willing to pay players. I just don't see the Reds competing for him. Look, Castellenos can go to another team that has better opportunities to win. You name it, the Phillies, the Dodgers, the Angels, the Astros, even the Cardinals and he's going to not only make more money, but have a better chance to win.
Not sure where to start with this mess. The beginning, I guess...
I understand about Boros, but if you think the bold sentence is true, you are probably single or divorced. Nick seems to be a genuine family man, and probably factors his family's happiness into his career decisions. Decent people do that.
If you think the Phillies (82-80, with 6th highest payroll in MLB, minimal minor league prospects) and Angels (77-85 with 7th highest payroll) have a better chance to win than the Reds, you have not been paying attention.
At $14M salary in 2021, Castellanos is the 16th highest paid outfielder. He probably deserves to be top 10. Some of the guys ahead of him are older guys who do not belong there.
- Heyward - Cubs - LOL
- Upton - Angels - on hook for $28M next year - LOL
- Pollock - Dodgers - big pay cut in 2022
- McCutcheon - Phillies - contract ends this year
- Fowler - Angels - contract ends this year
- Bellinger - Dodgers - arbitration this year, likely big pay cut coming based on performance
Castellanos' contract takes him to $16M in 2022, which is about a 15% raise, and puts him at about 10th-12th in the OF salary rankings. Pretty strong. If he opts out, it is because the contract holds him at $16M in 2023, and the $20M in 2024 is a mutual option. So I don't think the 2022 salary is an issue, but he likely will want more long term security.
So the Reds have some decisions to make obviously. 2022 is the tough year, salary-wise. Miley is on the books for $10M, Shogo for $8M. Both of those go away in 2023. Gray gets $10M in 2022 and club option in 2023 for $12M. Assume all 3 of those are gone in 2023, if not sooner. Moose's contract is the boat anchor dragging this ship down.
If I'm the Reds, I'm thinking that Joey's big deal goes away after 2 more years (club option in 2024). Castellanos is the perfect guy to build around and invest in - 29 years old, plays hard every day, and a great hitter. This is the guy they should try to sign for 5-6 years at a slightly above market price - invest in him and build around him. When Joey's contract ends, and the dead weight guys listed above come off the books, you will be able to pay Winker and Castillo as their arbitration years end in 2024. Still have more time for India and Stephenson. These are the core guys to build around...