The Official 2020 Cincinnati Reds Thread

brianwr112 said:
I'd personally rather take a cautious approach and hopefully save some lives. Especially since it was a new virus that basically the entire world was just learning about. And I'd predict the 100,000 number to rise. And a lot more cases showing up now that everyone's just going back to normal. Hard to put a number on how many people didn't catch it or didn't die from it.
Click to expand...
not to be flippant, but have you looked at the data closely. Folks under age 60 have had very little issue with this, from a general perspective. This is the issue with things like this. We hear about 100 people dying and we freak out, but when you consider that pre corona, 7,500 people die DAILY in America, for various reasons.
And what's to say the 100,000 number is even accurate? First of all, if you deduct those worse hit, nursing homes / prisons, and that number is conservatively in the 60,000 area or less.
My point is that if you set the precedence that you're going to shut things down when a few people get sick, we may as well just close everything forever. YOu can't run a business with so little plan for the future.
 
You realize at this point that even if they do play...whenever someone tests positive they'll be ordered to quarantine for 14 days. All their teammates and coaches in close contact would have to do the same
 
Red14 said:
not to be flippant, but have you looked at the data closely. Folks under age 60 have had very little issue with this, from a general perspective. This is the issue with things like this. We hear about 100 people dying and we freak out, but when you consider that pre corona, 7,500 people die DAILY in America, for various reasons.
And what's to say the 100,000 number is even accurate? First of all, if you deduct those worse hit, nursing homes / prisons, and that number is conservatively in the 60,000 area or less.
My point is that if you set the precedence that you're going to shut things down when a few people get sick, we may as well just close everything forever. YOu can't run a business with so little plan for the future.
Click to expand...
The guy who defended Billy Hamilton as being good for the Reds offense is asking if other people look at data. Best laugh I've had in weeks, thanks. But then I read the rest of your nonsense and got frustrated.

You don't understand numbers. If you did, you'd understand that COVID-19 has a 1% mortality rate. Without the shutdown, and a highly contagious virus, you get approximately 80% of the US population infected, which adds up to north of 2 million dead. Does that register with you?

And you don't get to "deduct" nursing homes and prisons, you heartless fool. Those are people too, and somebody's family. What is wrong with you?
 
wolves82 said:
The guy who defended Billy Hamilton as being good for the Reds offense is asking if other people look at data. Best laugh I've had in weeks, thanks. But then I read the rest of your nonsense and got frustrated.

You don't understand numbers. If you did, you'd understand that COVID-19 has a 1% mortality rate. Without the shutdown, and a highly contagious virus, you get approximately 80% of the US population infected, which adds up to north of 2 million dead. Does that register with you?

And you don't get to "deduct" nursing homes and prisons, you heartless fool. Those are people too, and somebody's family. What is wrong with you?
Click to expand...
Bahaha...heartless fool...that's a good one. You are simply guessing on the numbers, we've not had anything that's shown those numbers. Now if the US was all like NYC, then you have a major issue. Take out NYC and it's not been gigantic for the rest of us. Just got to look at the numbers. Or go hide in your bedroom because after corona, there will be some kind of illness or virus that you'll be scared of.

wolves, you always only see the glass half empty, don't you? Billy Hamilton was a below after offensive centerfielder, however, he could generate offense by himself. Very few baseball players can do that. He also was an elite defensive baseball player, possibly the best defensive centerfielder in the history of the Reds.
 
Red14 said:
Bahaha...heartless fool...that's a good one. You are simply guessing on the numbers, we've not had anything that's shown those numbers. Now if the US was all like NYC, then you have a major issue. Take out NYC and it's not been gigantic for the rest of us. Just got to look at the numbers. Or go hide in your bedroom because after corona, there will be some kind of illness or virus that you'll be scared of.

wolves, you always only see the glass half empty, don't you? Billy Hamilton was a below after offensive centerfielder, however, he could generate offense by himself. Very few baseball players can do that. He also was an elite defensive baseball player, possibly the best defensive centerfielder in the history of the Reds.
Click to expand...
Homerun hitters create offense by themselves. Hamilton didn’t get on base enough to create much of anything. Pretty obvious in retrospect you got it completely wrong on him.
 
eastside_purple said:
Homerun hitters create offense by themselves. Hamilton didn’t get on base enough to create much of anything. Pretty obvious in retrospect you got it completely wrong on him.
Click to expand...
A "good" home run hitter as a starter gets what 400-500 at bats a season. A good season for a home run hitter is 30 home runs? In 400 at bats?? That's nice, but alot of empty outs there. Now we can get on Billy for not being able to get on base, but there's no way you can say he didn't create offense. How many times did we see him stealing 2nd and 3rd, getting himself into scoring position, or scoring from 1st on a ball in the gap when 90% of the rest of baseball couldn't do it.
 
Red14 said:
A "good" home run hitter as a starter gets what 400-500 at bats a season. A good season for a home run hitter is 30 home runs? In 400 at bats?? That's nice, but alot of empty outs there. Now we can get on Billy for not being able to get on base, but there's no way you can say he didn't create offense. How many times did we see him stealing 2nd and 3rd, getting himself into scoring position, or scoring from 1st on a ball in the gap when 90% of the rest of baseball couldn't do it.
Click to expand...
Lol. So your claim is Hamilton is more valuable offensively than a 30 hr hitter? In any event, even stealing some bases, he didn’t create his own offense. He was dependent on another batter to drive him in. Besides, he wasn’t even a prolific base stealer his last two seasons. The only play that is creating its own offense is the homerun. ??‍♂️
 
Apparently Red thinks 50 stolen bases is more offense than 30 hrs. Lol.

Back of the envelope:
  • A homerun is worth 1.5 runs on average, so 30 x 1.5 = 45 runs
  • Hamilton averaged scoring 42% of the time when on base. On occasion, he stole more than one base (second and third) while on base, but let’s just give him 1 stolen base per occasion on the base path. His top season was 59 stolen bases, so let’s assume he scored half the time he stole a base (I’m feeling generous). That’s 59 x .5 = 29.5 runs produced (GENEROUSLY).
  • 45 is greater than 30. Hmmmm
 
Last edited:
eastside_purple said:
Apparently Red thinks 50 stolen bases is more offense than 30 hrs. Lol.

Back of the envelope:
  • A homerun is worth 1.5 runs on average, so 30 x 1.5 = 45 runs
  • Hamilton averaged scoring 42% of the time when on base. On occasion, he stole more than one base (second and third) while on base, but let’s just give him 1 stolen base per occasion on the base path. His top season was 59 stolen bases, so let’s assume he scored half the time he stole a base (I’m feeling generous). That’s 59 x .5 = 29.5 runs produced (GENEROUSLY).
  • 45 is greater than 30. Hmmmm
Click to expand...
Because the "eye" test is important, what your stats do not take into consideration...

The distraction of the pitcher trying to hold on Hamilton, at both bases. Maybe he makes a mistake to the batter because he's distracted.

The movement of the defense, shortstop, second base have to play a step or two closer to the base to take the throw on a steal attempt

More fastballs for the next hitter

Outfielders move in a step to try to cut down the runner

Outfielders misplay balls because they are hurrying to get the runner out.

All of these little things matter. Baseball people understand this.
 
Red14 said:
Because the "eye" test is important, what your stats do not take into consideration...

The distraction of the pitcher trying to hold on Hamilton, at both bases. Maybe he makes a mistake to the batter because he's distracted.

The movement of the defense, shortstop, second base have to play a step or two closer to the base to take the throw on a steal attempt

More fastballs for the next hitter

Outfielders move in a step to try to cut down the runner

Outfielders misplay balls because they are hurrying to get the runner out.

All of these little things matter. Baseball people understand this.
Click to expand...
But it still adds up to way less created runs than a guy mashing 30 homeruns and therefore less offense created. ??‍♂️ Lol. Math matters.

Billy is basically a bench player now. What smart baseball people agree with you?
 
eastside_purple said:
Homerun hitters create offense by themselves. Hamilton didn’t get on base enough to create much of anything. Pretty obvious in retrospect you got it completely wrong on him.
Click to expand...
His last year he wasnt even stealing bases at a high clip if I remember correctly. It is amazing how 14red can never admit he is just wrong
 
Red14 said:
A "good" home run hitter as a starter gets what 400-500 at bats a season. A good season for a home run hitter is 30 home runs? In 400 at bats?? That's nice, but alot of empty outs there. Now we can get on Billy for not being able to get on base, but there's no way you can say he didn't create offense. How many times did we see him stealing 2nd and 3rd, getting himself into scoring position, or scoring from 1st on a ball in the gap when 90% of the rest of baseball couldn't do it.
Click to expand...
If he could get on base so easily by "ground balls in gaps" why did he have such a low OBP and batting average?
 
Arrogate said:
His last year he wasnt even stealing bases at a high clip if I remember correctly. It is amazing how 14red can never admit he is just wrong
Click to expand...
His last year in Cincy he had 34 stolen bases. In his prior 4 years as a Red, he had no less than 56 stolen bases each year.

His career high in home runs is 6. He averages 35 RBIs and 128 strikeouts, a year Yeah I will take 30 home runs over Billy Hamilton production
 
Arrogate said:
His last year he wasnt even stealing bases at a high clip if I remember correctly. It is amazing how 14red can never admit he is just wrong
Click to expand...
i mean baseball people really value what billy brings to the table— instant offense. Lol.

Again, since offense = runs, the only play that creates offense all by itself is the homerun. Stolen bases SOMETIMES creates a run; homeruns ALWAYS create runs.

A homerun is worth 1.5 runs on average. A stolen base leads to a run much less than 50% of the time.
 
eastside_purple said:
But it still adds up to way less created runs than a guy mashing 30 homeruns and therefore less offense created. ??‍♂️ Lol. Math matters.

Billy is basically a bench player now. What smart baseball people agree with you?
Click to expand...
So who should the Reds had played in centerfield ahead of Billy when he was there?
 
Red14 said:
So who should the Reds had played in centerfield ahead of Billy when he was there?
Click to expand...
I thought we were discussing what an amazing offensive weapon he is. Lol. I mean, on a team that was losing 90+ games, anyone could have played CF. They should have traded him to one of those great eyeball gms you keep talking about.
 
eastside_purple said:
I thought we were discussing what an amazing offensive weapon he is. Lol. I mean, on a team that was losing 90+ games, anyone could have played CF. They should have traded him to one of those great eyeball gms you keep talking about.
Click to expand...
EP, I'd much rather discuss Billy Hamilton with you than deal with all this corona and social injustice shenanigans.

I'd love for you to be a GM of a baseball team. You'd just trade players every week if they weren't hitting .300 and making fantastic plays. The Reds were in a rebuild and Billy was one of the most exciting players in baseball. But again you don't see things that way.

For the 100th time. Billy Hamilton was a defense first, offense second baseball players. He was one of the best defensive centerfielders in baseball and probably more suited to hit 7th or 8th, but we didn't really have anyone else so he hit leadoff because he was fast. It's really about as simple as that.
 
Red14 said:
EP, I'd much rather discuss Billy Hamilton with you than deal with all this corona and social injustice shenanigans.

I'd love for you to be a GM of a baseball team. You'd just trade players every week if they weren't hitting .300 and making fantastic plays. The Reds were in a rebuild and Billy was one of the most exciting players in baseball. But again you don't see things that way.

For the 100th time. Billy Hamilton was a defense first, offense second baseball players. He was one of the best defensive centerfielders in baseball and probably more suited to hit 7th or 8th, but we didn't really have anyone else so he hit leadoff because he was fast. It's really about as simple as that.
Click to expand...
The only way Billy starts for me is if the rest of my starting 8 really rake. As it were, the Reds struggled to consistently score and having Hamilton at the top of the lineup only made it worse. I suggested trading him very early as I recognized he didn’t generate nearly enough offense to be an asset on a daily basis. I definitely would have sold high after 2015 or 2016 to some goober like you coveting defense and speed in a game that doesn’t emphasize them anymore if you can produce offensively.
 
Red14 said:
So who should the Reds had played in front of Billy when he was in Cincy?
Click to expand...
I was vocal on here about trading him when he was a rookie. The value was pretty high to other teams for a couple years after and i was 100% correct in knowing he wouldnt be near the player management had hoped. Cant steal first

Nice deflection and tripling down on stupid.
 
Arrogate said:
I was vocal on here about trading him when he was a rookie. The value was pretty high to other teams for a couple years after and i was 100% correct in knowing he wouldnt be near the player management had hoped. Cant steal first

Nice deflection and tripling down on stupid.
Click to expand...
I like how the conversation went from what a offensive creating powerhouse Billy is to well, who the hell else should have played CF on a 90+ loss team? Lol.
 
Boy Bauer looked great today! And that Suarez bomb to win the game in the ninth! Saweeeeet
 
eastside_purple said:
The only way Billy starts for me is if the rest of my starting 8 really rake. As it were, the Reds struggled to consistently score and having Hamilton at the top of the lineup only made it worse. I suggested trading him very early as I recognized he didn’t generate nearly enough offense to be an asset on a daily basis. I definitely would have sold high after 2015 or 2016 to some goober like you coveting defense and speed in a game that doesn’t emphasize them anymore if you can produce offensively.
Click to expand...
You're assuming that Hamilton was wanted by other teams??? I like you and your kind, you always want to trade players you don't like and get something for them. Put yourself on the other side of the table, why would you want Hamilton, according to you he's awful so how can you trade him. Also understand the Reds were rebuilding and Hamilton was cheap. As I've told you many, many times in the past, for what Billy did in Cincy, he was a very good value.
 
Red14 said:
You're assuming that Hamilton was wanted by other teams??? I like you and your kind, you always want to trade players you don't like and get something for them. Put yourself on the other side of the table, why would you want Hamilton, according to you he's awful so how can you trade him. Also understand the Reds were rebuilding and Hamilton was cheap. As I've told you many, many times in the past, for what Billy did in Cincy, he was a very good value.
Click to expand...
Teams trade young assets all the time. Based on your belief baseball guys with good eyeballs knew Billy was a great young asset (Mr Instant Offense), finding a willing trading partner early in his career shouldn’t have been very challenging.
 
eastside_purple said:
Teams trade young assets all the time. Based on your belief baseball guys with good eyeballs knew Billy was a great young asset (Mr Instant Offense), finding a willing trading partner early in his career shouldn’t have been very challenging.
Click to expand...
I think the season Billy was a free agent and no one signed him said it all. Teams in 2020 don't value defense and the stolen base. It's metrics and shifts. You can compensated for a weaker defense today with the shift.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top