The Official 2020 Cincinnati Reds Thread

Red14

Well-known member
I'd personally rather take a cautious approach and hopefully save some lives. Especially since it was a new virus that basically the entire world was just learning about. And I'd predict the 100,000 number to rise. And a lot more cases showing up now that everyone's just going back to normal. Hard to put a number on how many people didn't catch it or didn't die from it.
not to be flippant, but have you looked at the data closely. Folks under age 60 have had very little issue with this, from a general perspective. This is the issue with things like this. We hear about 100 people dying and we freak out, but when you consider that pre corona, 7,500 people die DAILY in America, for various reasons.
And what's to say the 100,000 number is even accurate? First of all, if you deduct those worse hit, nursing homes / prisons, and that number is conservatively in the 60,000 area or less.
My point is that if you set the precedence that you're going to shut things down when a few people get sick, we may as well just close everything forever. YOu can't run a business with so little plan for the future.
 

brianwr112

Well-known member
You realize at this point that even if they do play...whenever someone tests positive they'll be ordered to quarantine for 14 days. All their teammates and coaches in close contact would have to do the same
 

wolves82

Well-known member
not to be flippant, but have you looked at the data closely. Folks under age 60 have had very little issue with this, from a general perspective. This is the issue with things like this. We hear about 100 people dying and we freak out, but when you consider that pre corona, 7,500 people die DAILY in America, for various reasons.
And what's to say the 100,000 number is even accurate? First of all, if you deduct those worse hit, nursing homes / prisons, and that number is conservatively in the 60,000 area or less.
My point is that if you set the precedence that you're going to shut things down when a few people get sick, we may as well just close everything forever. YOu can't run a business with so little plan for the future.
The guy who defended Billy Hamilton as being good for the Reds offense is asking if other people look at data. Best laugh I've had in weeks, thanks. But then I read the rest of your nonsense and got frustrated.

You don't understand numbers. If you did, you'd understand that COVID-19 has a 1% mortality rate. Without the shutdown, and a highly contagious virus, you get approximately 80% of the US population infected, which adds up to north of 2 million dead. Does that register with you?

And you don't get to "deduct" nursing homes and prisons, you heartless fool. Those are people too, and somebody's family. What is wrong with you?
 

Red14

Well-known member
The guy who defended Billy Hamilton as being good for the Reds offense is asking if other people look at data. Best laugh I've had in weeks, thanks. But then I read the rest of your nonsense and got frustrated.

You don't understand numbers. If you did, you'd understand that COVID-19 has a 1% mortality rate. Without the shutdown, and a highly contagious virus, you get approximately 80% of the US population infected, which adds up to north of 2 million dead. Does that register with you?

And you don't get to "deduct" nursing homes and prisons, you heartless fool. Those are people too, and somebody's family. What is wrong with you?
Bahaha...heartless fool...that's a good one. You are simply guessing on the numbers, we've not had anything that's shown those numbers. Now if the US was all like NYC, then you have a major issue. Take out NYC and it's not been gigantic for the rest of us. Just got to look at the numbers. Or go hide in your bedroom because after corona, there will be some kind of illness or virus that you'll be scared of.

wolves, you always only see the glass half empty, don't you? Billy Hamilton was a below after offensive centerfielder, however, he could generate offense by himself. Very few baseball players can do that. He also was an elite defensive baseball player, possibly the best defensive centerfielder in the history of the Reds.
 

eastside_purple

Well-known member
Bahaha...heartless fool...that's a good one. You are simply guessing on the numbers, we've not had anything that's shown those numbers. Now if the US was all like NYC, then you have a major issue. Take out NYC and it's not been gigantic for the rest of us. Just got to look at the numbers. Or go hide in your bedroom because after corona, there will be some kind of illness or virus that you'll be scared of.

wolves, you always only see the glass half empty, don't you? Billy Hamilton was a below after offensive centerfielder, however, he could generate offense by himself. Very few baseball players can do that. He also was an elite defensive baseball player, possibly the best defensive centerfielder in the history of the Reds.
Homerun hitters create offense by themselves. Hamilton didn’t get on base enough to create much of anything. Pretty obvious in retrospect you got it completely wrong on him.
 

Red14

Well-known member
Homerun hitters create offense by themselves. Hamilton didn’t get on base enough to create much of anything. Pretty obvious in retrospect you got it completely wrong on him.
A "good" home run hitter as a starter gets what 400-500 at bats a season. A good season for a home run hitter is 30 home runs? In 400 at bats?? That's nice, but alot of empty outs there. Now we can get on Billy for not being able to get on base, but there's no way you can say he didn't create offense. How many times did we see him stealing 2nd and 3rd, getting himself into scoring position, or scoring from 1st on a ball in the gap when 90% of the rest of baseball couldn't do it.
 

eastside_purple

Well-known member
A "good" home run hitter as a starter gets what 400-500 at bats a season. A good season for a home run hitter is 30 home runs? In 400 at bats?? That's nice, but alot of empty outs there. Now we can get on Billy for not being able to get on base, but there's no way you can say he didn't create offense. How many times did we see him stealing 2nd and 3rd, getting himself into scoring position, or scoring from 1st on a ball in the gap when 90% of the rest of baseball couldn't do it.
Lol. So your claim is Hamilton is more valuable offensively than a 30 hr hitter? In any event, even stealing some bases, he didn’t create his own offense. He was dependent on another batter to drive him in. Besides, he wasn’t even a prolific base stealer his last two seasons. The only play that is creating its own offense is the homerun. 🤷🏼‍♂️
 

eastside_purple

Well-known member
Apparently Red thinks 50 stolen bases is more offense than 30 hrs. Lol.

Back of the envelope:
  • A homerun is worth 1.5 runs on average, so 30 x 1.5 = 45 runs
  • Hamilton averaged scoring 42% of the time when on base. On occasion, he stole more than one base (second and third) while on base, but let’s just give him 1 stolen base per occasion on the base path. His top season was 59 stolen bases, so let’s assume he scored half the time he stole a base (I’m feeling generous). That’s 59 x .5 = 29.5 runs produced (GENEROUSLY).
  • 45 is greater than 30. Hmmmm
 
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Red14

Well-known member
Apparently Red thinks 50 stolen bases is more offense than 30 hrs. Lol.

Back of the envelope:
  • A homerun is worth 1.5 runs on average, so 30 x 1.5 = 45 runs
  • Hamilton averaged scoring 42% of the time when on base. On occasion, he stole more than one base (second and third) while on base, but let’s just give him 1 stolen base per occasion on the base path. His top season was 59 stolen bases, so let’s assume he scored half the time he stole a base (I’m feeling generous). That’s 59 x .5 = 29.5 runs produced (GENEROUSLY).
  • 45 is greater than 30. Hmmmm
Because the "eye" test is important, what your stats do not take into consideration...

The distraction of the pitcher trying to hold on Hamilton, at both bases. Maybe he makes a mistake to the batter because he's distracted.

The movement of the defense, shortstop, second base have to play a step or two closer to the base to take the throw on a steal attempt

More fastballs for the next hitter

Outfielders move in a step to try to cut down the runner

Outfielders misplay balls because they are hurrying to get the runner out.

All of these little things matter. Baseball people understand this.
 

eastside_purple

Well-known member
Because the "eye" test is important, what your stats do not take into consideration...

The distraction of the pitcher trying to hold on Hamilton, at both bases. Maybe he makes a mistake to the batter because he's distracted.

The movement of the defense, shortstop, second base have to play a step or two closer to the base to take the throw on a steal attempt

More fastballs for the next hitter

Outfielders move in a step to try to cut down the runner

Outfielders misplay balls because they are hurrying to get the runner out.

All of these little things matter. Baseball people understand this.
But it still adds up to way less created runs than a guy mashing 30 homeruns and therefore less offense created. 🤷🏼‍♂️ Lol. Math matters.

Billy is basically a bench player now. What smart baseball people agree with you?
 

Arrogate

Well-known member
Homerun hitters create offense by themselves. Hamilton didn’t get on base enough to create much of anything. Pretty obvious in retrospect you got it completely wrong on him.
His last year he wasnt even stealing bases at a high clip if I remember correctly. It is amazing how 14red can never admit he is just wrong
 

Arrogate

Well-known member
A "good" home run hitter as a starter gets what 400-500 at bats a season. A good season for a home run hitter is 30 home runs? In 400 at bats?? That's nice, but alot of empty outs there. Now we can get on Billy for not being able to get on base, but there's no way you can say he didn't create offense. How many times did we see him stealing 2nd and 3rd, getting himself into scoring position, or scoring from 1st on a ball in the gap when 90% of the rest of baseball couldn't do it.
If he could get on base so easily by "ground balls in gaps" why did he have such a low OBP and batting average?
 

Arrogate

Well-known member
His last year he wasnt even stealing bases at a high clip if I remember correctly. It is amazing how 14red can never admit he is just wrong
His last year in Cincy he had 34 stolen bases. In his prior 4 years as a Red, he had no less than 56 stolen bases each year.

His career high in home runs is 6. He averages 35 RBIs and 128 strikeouts, a year Yeah I will take 30 home runs over Billy Hamilton production
 

eastside_purple

Well-known member
His last year he wasnt even stealing bases at a high clip if I remember correctly. It is amazing how 14red can never admit he is just wrong
i mean baseball people really value what billy brings to the table— instant offense. Lol.

Again, since offense = runs, the only play that creates offense all by itself is the homerun. Stolen bases SOMETIMES creates a run; homeruns ALWAYS create runs.

A homerun is worth 1.5 runs on average. A stolen base leads to a run much less than 50% of the time.
 

Red14

Well-known member
But it still adds up to way less created runs than a guy mashing 30 homeruns and therefore less offense created. 🤷🏼‍♂️ Lol. Math matters.

Billy is basically a bench player now. What smart baseball people agree with you?
So who should the Reds had played in centerfield ahead of Billy when he was there?
 

eastside_purple

Well-known member
So who should the Reds had played in centerfield ahead of Billy when he was there?
I thought we were discussing what an amazing offensive weapon he is. Lol. I mean, on a team that was losing 90+ games, anyone could have played CF. They should have traded him to one of those great eyeball gms you keep talking about.
 

Red14

Well-known member
I thought we were discussing what an amazing offensive weapon he is. Lol. I mean, on a team that was losing 90+ games, anyone could have played CF. They should have traded him to one of those great eyeball gms you keep talking about.
EP, I'd much rather discuss Billy Hamilton with you than deal with all this corona and social injustice shenanigans.

I'd love for you to be a GM of a baseball team. You'd just trade players every week if they weren't hitting .300 and making fantastic plays. The Reds were in a rebuild and Billy was one of the most exciting players in baseball. But again you don't see things that way.

For the 100th time. Billy Hamilton was a defense first, offense second baseball players. He was one of the best defensive centerfielders in baseball and probably more suited to hit 7th or 8th, but we didn't really have anyone else so he hit leadoff because he was fast. It's really about as simple as that.
 

eastside_purple

Well-known member
EP, I'd much rather discuss Billy Hamilton with you than deal with all this corona and social injustice shenanigans.

I'd love for you to be a GM of a baseball team. You'd just trade players every week if they weren't hitting .300 and making fantastic plays. The Reds were in a rebuild and Billy was one of the most exciting players in baseball. But again you don't see things that way.

For the 100th time. Billy Hamilton was a defense first, offense second baseball players. He was one of the best defensive centerfielders in baseball and probably more suited to hit 7th or 8th, but we didn't really have anyone else so he hit leadoff because he was fast. It's really about as simple as that.
The only way Billy starts for me is if the rest of my starting 8 really rake. As it were, the Reds struggled to consistently score and having Hamilton at the top of the lineup only made it worse. I suggested trading him very early as I recognized he didn’t generate nearly enough offense to be an asset on a daily basis. I definitely would have sold high after 2015 or 2016 to some goober like you coveting defense and speed in a game that doesn’t emphasize them anymore if you can produce offensively.
 

Arrogate

Well-known member
So who should the Reds had played in front of Billy when he was in Cincy?
I was vocal on here about trading him when he was a rookie. The value was pretty high to other teams for a couple years after and i was 100% correct in knowing he wouldnt be near the player management had hoped. Cant steal first

Nice deflection and tripling down on stupid.
 

eastside_purple

Well-known member
I was vocal on here about trading him when he was a rookie. The value was pretty high to other teams for a couple years after and i was 100% correct in knowing he wouldnt be near the player management had hoped. Cant steal first

Nice deflection and tripling down on stupid.
I like how the conversation went from what a offensive creating powerhouse Billy is to well, who the hell else should have played CF on a 90+ loss team? Lol.
 

zeeman

Well-known member
Boy Bauer looked great today! And that Suarez bomb to win the game in the ninth! Saweeeeet
 

Red14

Well-known member
The only way Billy starts for me is if the rest of my starting 8 really rake. As it were, the Reds struggled to consistently score and having Hamilton at the top of the lineup only made it worse. I suggested trading him very early as I recognized he didn’t generate nearly enough offense to be an asset on a daily basis. I definitely would have sold high after 2015 or 2016 to some goober like you coveting defense and speed in a game that doesn’t emphasize them anymore if you can produce offensively.
You're assuming that Hamilton was wanted by other teams??? I like you and your kind, you always want to trade players you don't like and get something for them. Put yourself on the other side of the table, why would you want Hamilton, according to you he's awful so how can you trade him. Also understand the Reds were rebuilding and Hamilton was cheap. As I've told you many, many times in the past, for what Billy did in Cincy, he was a very good value.
 

eastside_purple

Well-known member
You're assuming that Hamilton was wanted by other teams??? I like you and your kind, you always want to trade players you don't like and get something for them. Put yourself on the other side of the table, why would you want Hamilton, according to you he's awful so how can you trade him. Also understand the Reds were rebuilding and Hamilton was cheap. As I've told you many, many times in the past, for what Billy did in Cincy, he was a very good value.
Teams trade young assets all the time. Based on your belief baseball guys with good eyeballs knew Billy was a great young asset (Mr Instant Offense), finding a willing trading partner early in his career shouldn’t have been very challenging.
 

Red14

Well-known member
Teams trade young assets all the time. Based on your belief baseball guys with good eyeballs knew Billy was a great young asset (Mr Instant Offense), finding a willing trading partner early in his career shouldn’t have been very challenging.
I think the season Billy was a free agent and no one signed him said it all. Teams in 2020 don't value defense and the stolen base. It's metrics and shifts. You can compensated for a weaker defense today with the shift.
 
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