The Official 2020 Cincinnati Reds Thread

wolves82

Well-known member
Is this going to be another year where we get excited about the team and by the all star break we're not even watching them anymore?
With Mookie on board, is this the year that the Giants wind up 40 games back of the Dodgers?
 

wolves82

Well-known member
Well, not sure how many of you like the Baseball Prospectus or care about the PECOTA algorithm projections. But as a math nerd, I like them. And guess what, they project the Reds to win the NL Central! https://www.mlb.com/news/pecota-projections-2020

Great little nugget from the article. The Dodgers are clearly the team to beat, and they rank Betts and Bellinger as 2 of the top 5 players in the MLB. But even if you remove Betts and Bellinger from the Dodgers, the remaining roster is +6 WAR over the next best NL team. Wow.

Anyway, let's get the season started Reds fans!
 

eastside_purple

Well-known member
Here’s the postseason odds from PECOTA. Interesting....Mets, Nationals and Reds are in that second tier behind the top 4 who are heads and shoulders above the rest.


And here are the postseason odds for every club in descending order:

Dodgers: 99.9%
Yankees: 97.5%
Astros: 96.9%
Twins: 89.2%
Mets: 75.3%
Nationals: 69.0%
Reds: 66.2%
Cubs: 51.5%
Rays: 50.8%
Angels: 45.6%
Indians: 41.4%
Braves: 38.4%
Red Sox: 28.5%
Athletics: 27.9%
Cardinals: 24.4%
Brewers: 20.3%
Padres: 18.5%
White Sox: 18.1%
D-backs: 15.8%
Phillies: 8.9%
Rockies: 8.4%
Blue Jays: 3%
Marlins: 1.4%
Pirates: 1.4%
Rangers: 0.7%
Giants: 0.2%
Orioles: 0.1%
Royals: 0.1%
Mariners: 0%
Tigers: 0%
 

wolves82

Well-known member
Here’s the postseason odds from PECOTA. Interesting....Mets, Nationals and Reds are in that second tier behind the top 4 who are heads and shoulders above the rest.
Yep - Clearly the PECOTA formula values starting pitching. All of the top teams except the Twins have very good rotations. Yankees took a hit with the news that Paxton is out several months.
 

Red14

Active member
Well, not sure how many of you like the Baseball Prospectus or care about the PECOTA algorithm projections. But as a math nerd, I like them. And guess what, they project the Reds to win the NL Central! https://www.mlb.com/news/pecota-projections-2020

Great little nugget from the article. The Dodgers are clearly the team to beat, and they rank Betts and Bellinger as 2 of the top 5 players in the MLB. But even if you remove Betts and Bellinger from the Dodgers, the remaining roster is +6 WAR over the next best NL team. Wow.

Anyway, let's get the season started Reds fans!
What ever group picks the Reds to win, I like!!!

Let's get this season started!!
 

Red14

Active member
Well, not sure how many of you like the Baseball Prospectus or care about the PECOTA algorithm projections. But as a math nerd, I like them. And guess what, they project the Reds to win the NL Central! https://www.mlb.com/news/pecota-projections-2020

Great little nugget from the article. The Dodgers are clearly the team to beat, and they rank Betts and Bellinger as 2 of the top 5 players in the MLB. But even if you remove Betts and Bellinger from the Dodgers, the remaining roster is +6 WAR over the next best NL team. Wow.

Anyway, let's get the season started Reds fans!
And it's a good thing the games aren't played on paper!
 

Red14

Active member
Well, not sure how many of you like the Baseball Prospectus or care about the PECOTA algorithm projections. But as a math nerd, I like them. And guess what, they project the Reds to win the NL Central! https://www.mlb.com/news/pecota-projections-2020

Great little nugget from the article. The Dodgers are clearly the team to beat, and they rank Betts and Bellinger as 2 of the top 5 players in the MLB. But even if you remove Betts and Bellinger from the Dodgers, the remaining roster is +6 WAR over the next best NL team. Wow.

Anyway, let's get the season started Reds fans!
Pretty exciting times to see the Reds getting some national attention. It's been kind of 50-50 depending on who you talk to about the Reds as far as predictions. Full squad reports today with position players having physicals. First spring training game is Saturday.
 

wolves82

Well-known member
Just read an article on the Reds website - a writer speculating about the opening day roster. It included 4 outfielders (Akiyama, Castellanos, Senzel and Winker) and 3 utility players (Dietrich, Farmer and Blandino). 5 SP, 8 bullpen, the starting infielders we all know, and Barnhart / Casali. That's 26.

It did not include Aristides Aquino, because he has minor league options left. Is this even possible?? A guy absolutely tears up the majors in his debut last year, and you would consider keeping him off the OD roster?? He didn't just tear it up for a week or two. He had 200+ ABs, basically a third of a season played with 19 HR. He has to be a regular, right?
 

Indiandad

Well-known member
Just read an article on the Reds website - a writer speculating about the opening day roster. It included 4 outfielders (Akiyama, Castellanos, Senzel and Winker) and 3 utility players (Dietrich, Farmer and Blandino). 5 SP, 8 bullpen, the starting infielders we all know, and Barnhart / Casali. That's 26.

It did not include Aristides Aquino, because he has minor league options left. Is this even possible?? A guy absolutely tears up the majors in his debut last year, and you would consider keeping him off the OD roster?? He didn't just tear it up for a week or two. He had 200+ ABs, basically a third of a season played with 19 HR. He has to be a regular, right?
Aquino has options. However, he'll likely need to outplay either Winker or Senzel in SP to make the roster. Unless a trade is made....

Rumor has it that the Padres are still talking to the Red Sox to move Myers. Padres are willing to eat half of his salary and sweeten the deal with prospects. The Sox reportedly want the Padres to pry lose either Senzel or Lindor to go to Boston.

Why Lindor? The Sox have Bogaerts at SS. Would Boston be willing to trade Bogaerts to the Reds for Senzel and Myers and cash plus SD prospects? What would a deal like that look like?
 

eastside_purple

Well-known member
Senzel doesn’t appear to have a position on this team. Pretty big disappointment he’s potentially going to platoon or be Johnny fill in if he doesn’t win rf.
 

Indiandad

Well-known member
Senzel doesn’t appear to have a position on this team. Pretty big disappointment he’s potentially going to platoon or be Johnny fill in if he doesn’t win rf.
Why is that disappointing? It simply means they have made significant upgrades at many positions.
Having a talented roster should be the goal.
 

eastside_purple

Well-known member
Why is that disappointing? It simply means they have made significant upgrades at many positions.
Having a talented roster should be the goal.
It’s disappointing the reds can’t find a spot for what was considered a valuable asset. I was hoping to see a draft pick like him excel and take a position.
 

wolves82

Well-known member
I want Senzel and Aquino in the daily lineup, unless of course Aquino just flops big time in Spring Training, then he can go to AAA.

Assuming Aquino is doing the job in RF, some possibilities:
- If Suarez is not immediately ready: Moustakas plays 3B and Senzel plays 2B.
- If Suarez is ready, I have Senzel taking ground balls at SS every day. As soon as his shoulder is ready, he is my everyday SS. Until that shoulder is ready, he gets a couple starts a week in the OF, and plenty of PH chances.
 

eastside_purple

Well-known member
I want Senzel and Aquino in the daily lineup, unless of course Aquino just flops big time in Spring Training, then he can go to AAA.

Assuming Aquino is doing the job in RF, some possibilities:
- If Suarez is not immediately ready: Moustakas plays 3B and Senzel plays 2B.
- If Suarez is ready, I have Senzel taking ground balls at SS every day. As soon as his shoulder is ready, he is my everyday SS. Until that shoulder is ready, he gets a couple starts a week in the OF, and plenty of PH chances.
The Reds either need to find a spot for Senzel and play him everyday or trade him. Holding on to him as a gap filler just isn’t maximizing his value to the team or doing his career any favors.
 

wolves82

Well-known member
The Reds either need to find a spot for Senzel and play him everyday or trade him. Holding on to him as a gap filler just isn’t maximizing his value to the team or doing his career any favors.
I agree that my preference is to have Senzel in the daily lineup, but not with the "or trade him" sentiment. If you need a depth guy, you want one that is inexpensive, can play several positions, and is ready to jump in and be productive every day when the inevitable injuries occur. So I definitely want to keep him.
 

eastside_purple

Well-known member
I agree that my preference is to have Senzel in the daily lineup, but not with the "or trade him" sentiment. If you need a depth guy, you want one that is inexpensive, can play several positions, and is ready to jump in and be productive every day when the inevitable injuries occur. So I definitely want to keep him.
I guess I see him as a possible trade asset to strengthen a weak spot— SS, C, pitching
 

zeeman

Well-known member
Aquino has options. However, he'll likely need to outplay either Winker or Senzel in SP to make the roster. Unless a trade is made....

Rumor has it that the Padres are still talking to the Red Sox to move Myers. Padres are willing to eat half of his salary and sweeten the deal with prospects. The Sox reportedly want the Padres to pry lose either Senzel or Lindor to go to Boston.

Why Lindor? The Sox have Bogaerts at SS. Would Boston be willing to trade Bogaerts to the Reds for Senzel and Myers and cash plus SD prospects? What would a deal like that look like?
Love this idea! SS is the most important position on the team and the Reds have Galvis. I'm not as pumped as I would be if they had an actual solid SS
 

Red14

Active member
Aquino has options. However, he'll likely need to outplay either Winker or Senzel in SP to make the roster. Unless a trade is made....

Rumor has it that the Padres are still talking to the Red Sox to move Myers. Padres are willing to eat half of his salary and sweeten the deal with prospects. The Sox reportedly want the Padres to pry lose either Senzel or Lindor to go to Boston.

Why Lindor? The Sox have Bogaerts at SS. Would Boston be willing to trade Bogaerts to the Reds for Senzel and Myers and cash plus SD prospects? What would a deal like that look like?
I like that, and I agree, Aquino has options and may likely start the season in Louisville. I don't think he's a platoon candidate. I'd love to get Bogarts.
 

Red14

Active member
At this point I'm listening to offers for Senzel. He still has some value on the market, I'm concerned because we've had him in our organization for 3+ years and he misses a lot of games due to injury or illness. His little time last season, he was ok, but not great. He's positionless, but versatile to boot. If you can get better, you have to listen.
 

Indiandad

Well-known member
Love this idea! SS is the most important position on the team and the Reds have Galvis. I'm not as pumped as I would be if they had an actual solid SS
Bogaerts would be a huge get and likely require parting with additional talent such Santillan or India. The Padres would get Senzel and Boston would get 3 high prospects from SD plus Myers and cash and a high prospect from the Reds. I expect the Reds would send Galvis to Boston and want 5M+ from SD.

Bogaerts is under contract for 6 years at 20M per with a 7th year vesting option at 20M. He is 26 years old and a 5WAR+ player. He's everything you'd hope Senzel could become and he is reasonably priced. A move like this would put the Reds payroll at $148M this year. That's the high end of what I predicted they could afford based on their estimated revenues. The Reds can likely afford such a deal this year and in the future.
 

zeeman

Well-known member
Bogaerts would be a huge get and likely require parting with additional talent such Santillan or India. The Padres would get Senzel and Boston would get 3 high prospects from SD plus Myers and cash and a high prospect from the Reds. I expect the Reds would send Galvis to Boston and want 5M+ from SD.

Bogaerts is under contract for 6 years at 20M per with a 7th year vesting option at 20M. He is 26 years old and a 5WAR+ player. He's everything you'd hope Senzel could become and he is reasonably priced. A move like this would put the Reds payroll at $148M this year. That's the high end of what I predicted they could afford based on their estimated revenues. The Reds can likely afford such a deal this year and in the future.
Would win me over for sure and they need to do something like this to be legitimate. You can’t have Galvis and Barnhardt/Casalli and then the pitcher be 33% of your lineup and be a legit contender
 

eastside_purple

Well-known member
Bogaerts would be a huge get and likely require parting with additional talent such Santillan or India. The Padres would get Senzel and Boston would get 3 high prospects from SD plus Myers and cash and a high prospect from the Reds. I expect the Reds would send Galvis to Boston and want 5M+ from SD.

Bogaerts is under contract for 6 years at 20M per with a 7th year vesting option at 20M. He is 26 years old and a 5WAR+ player. He's everything you'd hope Senzel could become and he is reasonably priced. A move like this would put the Reds payroll at $148M this year. That's the high end of what I predicted they could afford based on their estimated revenues. The Reds can likely afford such a deal this year and in the future.
If that’s really a viable deal, the Reds should pull the trigger for sure.
 

Indiandad

Well-known member
If that’s really a viable deal, the Reds should pull the trigger for sure.
There been no reports on who Boston would be sending where but I have to believe it would be Bogaerts to the Reds. Boston reportedly is very high on the Padres number 5 prospect who is a 19 year old SS. Why would Boston want a SS when they have Bogaerts signed long term? Frankly, there isn't anyone else on the Red Sox roster that the Reds would realistically be looking at giving Senzel up for. The Padres reportedly willing to pay half of Myers salary and give up their number 5 and 13 prospects as well as a starting pitcher with 5 years of control left. No way they give up that much just to dump 30M in salary. They are looking to get talent back.
 
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