You have to have both.
There's no excuse for having a below average offense that plays half its games in a bandbox.
The Official 2019 Cincinnati Reds Thread
- Thread starter Sig Hansen
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There's no excuse for having a below average offense that plays half its games in a bandbox.
Red14
Well-known member
Indiandad, you know your baseball and i understand your though process, but there is ABSOLUTELY no way you can deal Castillo any time soon. Now if for some reason he hints like he wants to leave and he's going to cost way too much (but we're talking about him not hitting free agency until 2024) then possibly, but I just can't imagine a scenario where you would want to trade him.
Castillo's ERA since the trade deadline is hovering around 5.
Could have sold high...
Look at the returns Greinke and Bauer brought. Castillo could have brought more.
eastside_purple
Well-known member
You think Castillo would bring back several elite players?
I think he could have returned elite PROSPECTS in July.
Yeah no way. It’s not like he’s making that much anyways. You don’t trade a good young pitcher when you are trying to build a contender.
Realistically, this team could be close to contending next year with a few offensive upgrades. This team has led is sooo many games this year but they are beyond horrible at extending leads. The ability to extend a lead will flip the script on the mountain of one run losses.
No I do not. St. Louis has really overachieved this year in my opinion.
eastside_purple
Well-known member
So you think it’s a good idea to trade an almost surefire ace for elite prospects, who if they are lucky, maybe one develops into what Castillo is now? Seems kind of dumb, but okay.
If your goal is to win a championship on a limited budget, it is a good idea to collect as many elite prospects with the same ETA as possible.
It does no good to have a star or two on your big league roster and lose 90 games every year. Trade those stars to stock pile elite young talent. Let that talent develop together then supplement with FA.
KC should be the model.
eastside_purple
Well-known member
KC as a model would suck. Sustained excellence like St Louis should be the model.
eastside_purple
Well-known member
Should have sold high on him, as I precisely noted. He was overrated and would have yielded a nice return at the deadline.
Red14
Well-known member
do you know if there was any interest in him? I mean what could we have legitimately got for him?
wolves82
Highly Respected Expert
You trade your veterans to accumulate elite prospects. You don't trade your emerging young stars under team control for more prospects. Let's play this out....
If you trade Castillo for 3-4 elite prospects, you will be lucky if 1-2 years from now, 1 or 2 of those prospects end up being as good as Castillo. Do you then trade them as well, for more prospects? Where does this cycle end?
When a prospect pans out and becomes elite, like Castillo, you keep him as long as you can and trade the Roark / Puig / etc. guys for more prospects that might be 1-2 years away.
The KC model sucks. Houston did it right. But once Altuve emerged as a great player, they did not trade him for more prospects. They kept him on the team while waiting for Bregman, Springer, etc. to get to the bigs.
wolves82
Highly Respected Expert
I heard the UFC was interested in Amir, possibly for a fight with McGregor. Seriously though, I think he will be an effective reliever next year. He's hit a rough patch recently but he was pretty good most of the year.
eastside_purple
Well-known member
It was well known the Dodgers were looking for a high leverage lh reliever. They ended up settling on Adam Kolarek.
The Dodgers gave up an 18th round pick for him. Not exactly an elite prospect. He's not even an organizational top 30.
The Astros have a payroll of $199M this year and will likely top 200M next season. The Reds can't do that.
As for your scenario, it doesn't have to be perpetual. The idea is to bunch as many elite prospects together in the same time frame as possible to have a young, cheap and controlled core of 8-12 players.
As it stands now the Reds will have $120M+ payroll next year and huge holes that still need filled. Unless they sell the farm, they aren't contending next year.
eastside_purple
Well-known member
Right, I think Garrett would have gotten more.
How much more?
eastside_purple
Well-known member
Much.
That's insightful.
eastside_purple
Well-known member
Neither of us know what he may or may not get. It’s possible he may not have netted anything worth trading for since GMs may think this was an aberration.
Red14
Well-known member
A kick in the gut. Gray knew it as soon as it was hit. Gray kind of got himself in trouble with himself. He was sailing along through 5 innings, then a 22 pitch 6th inning, then in the 7th, a hit batter, walk..and he was starting to come apart. It's too bad that the offense couldn't had got 3-4 runs last night and made it easier for him to challenge hitters. Gray's been awfully good since the last few months.
Gray was at 111 pitches when he came out, it would had been interesting to see if Bell would have allowed him to continue pitching until he gave up a hit or threw a no hitter. He would had conservatively been in the 130 pitch area.
wolves82
Highly Respected Expert
The big spend by the Astros came AFTER they became a relevant team and they filled up their building every night. Then they paid Altuve, acquired Verlander and Cole (and now Grienke). But salary was not really my point.
My point was the Astros were still bad, Altuve was clearly becoming elite, and they did NOT trade him for more prospects while they waited on Correa, Springer, Bregman. Much like the Reds should not, and will not, trade Castillo.
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I have no problem with giving Gray the chance at the no-no.
The loss is meaningless. So is a win.
If this game had been in July in pennant race we would be talking about how 4 or 5 Reds pitchers combined for a No hitter.
Gray would have been pulled after 6 innings.
How do you see this team contending next season?
Monclova Steve
Well-known member
Agree with Bell's decision to leave Gray in until the no-no was broken up. Unfortunately, it was a 3-run bomb but -- as you say -- the game result was meaningless.
It is amazing that -- considering his track record of now 31 straight starts allowing 6 hits or fewer (tying Nolan Ryan's record) -- his W/L is only 10-7. It just shows how that particular stat can be very misleading. It also shows how much the Reds need to improve their offensive capabilities.
Monclova Steve
Well-known member
I hate to be the skunk @ the garden party, but I see next year as one in which the youngsters' roles get more defined. The Reds still haven't identified who will be a valuable piece of this puzzle. The only way to contention, though, is via a larger core of young players under contract control who are going to be here for awhile.
As of now, we don't know which players are capable of performing at a high enough level to help make the Reds a contending team. Hopefully, next season will answer many of those questions.
Contending next season? The Reds aren't that close yet.