The Official 2019 Cincinnati Reds Thread

Indiandad

Well-known member
true, but you HAVE to have pitching. Some offense is good, but you can't win consistently with just offense. Haven't we had these conversations before?
You have to have both.

There's no excuse for having a below average offense that plays half its games in a bandbox.
 

Red14

Member
You play to win Championships.

Having 1 or 2 great players doesn't win championships. You have to build an entire team.
Yes Castillo is young, controlled and becoming elite. He also could have brought back enough talent to build around an already strong minor league core.
Indiandad, you know your baseball and i understand your though process, but there is ABSOLUTELY no way you can deal Castillo any time soon. Now if for some reason he hints like he wants to leave and he's going to cost way too much (but we're talking about him not hitting free agency until 2024) then possibly, but I just can't imagine a scenario where you would want to trade him.
 

Indiandad

Well-known member
Indiandad, you know your baseball and i understand your though process, but there is ABSOLUTELY no way you can deal Castillo any time soon. Now if for some reason he hints like he wants to leave and he's going to cost way too much (but we're talking about him not hitting free agency until 2024) then possibly, but I just can't imagine a scenario where you would want to trade him.
Castillo's ERA since the trade deadline is hovering around 5.

Could have sold high...

Look at the returns Greinke and Bauer brought. Castillo could have brought more.
 

eastside_purple

Well-known member
You play to win Championships.

Having 1 or 2 great players doesn't win championships. You have to build an entire team.
Yes Castillo is young, controlled and becoming elite. He also could have brought back enough talent to build around an already strong minor league core.
You think Castillo would bring back several elite players?
 

nd2000

Active member
Why is the world would you trade your #1 starter???
Yeah no way. It’s not like he’s making that much anyways. You don’t trade a good young pitcher when you are trying to build a contender.

Realistically, this team could be close to contending next year with a few offensive upgrades. This team has led is sooo many games this year but they are beyond horrible at extending leads. The ability to extend a lead will flip the script on the mountain of one run losses.
 

nd2000

Active member
I'd love to have an offense like Houston or the Yankees, but that doesn't necessarily mean wins. St. Louis has 669 runs this season, we have 642, they are 21st in runs scored. There are other ways to win games. Honestly, on paper when you look at our team vs. St. Louis, do you feel that's clearly a better team? I don't.
No I do not. St. Louis has really overachieved this year in my opinion.
 

Indiandad

Well-known member
So you think it’s a good idea to trade an almost surefire ace for elite prospects, who if they are lucky, maybe one develops into what Castillo is now? Seems kind of dumb, but okay.
If your goal is to win a championship on a limited budget, it is a good idea to collect as many elite prospects with the same ETA as possible.

It does no good to have a star or two on your big league roster and lose 90 games every year. Trade those stars to stock pile elite young talent. Let that talent develop together then supplement with FA.

KC should be the model.
 

eastside_purple

Well-known member
If your goal is to win a championship on a limited budget, it is a good idea to collect as many elite prospects with the same ETA as possible.

It does no good to have a star or two on your big league roster and lose 90 games every year. Trade those stars to stock pile elite young talent. Let that talent develop together then supplement with FA.

KC should be the model.
KC as a model would suck. Sustained excellence like St Louis should be the model.
 

wolves82

Active member
If your goal is to win a championship on a limited budget, it is a good idea to collect as many elite prospects with the same ETA as possible.

It does no good to have a star or two on your big league roster and lose 90 games every year. Trade those stars to stock pile elite young talent. Let that talent develop together then supplement with FA.

KC should be the model.
You trade your veterans to accumulate elite prospects. You don't trade your emerging young stars under team control for more prospects. Let's play this out....

If you trade Castillo for 3-4 elite prospects, you will be lucky if 1-2 years from now, 1 or 2 of those prospects end up being as good as Castillo. Do you then trade them as well, for more prospects? Where does this cycle end?

When a prospect pans out and becomes elite, like Castillo, you keep him as long as you can and trade the Roark / Puig / etc. guys for more prospects that might be 1-2 years away.

The KC model sucks. Houston did it right. But once Altuve emerged as a great player, they did not trade him for more prospects. They kept him on the team while waiting for Bregman, Springer, etc. to get to the bigs.
 

wolves82

Active member
do you know if there was any interest in him? I mean what could we have legitimately got for him?
I heard the UFC was interested in Amir, possibly for a fight with McGregor. Seriously though, I think he will be an effective reliever next year. He's hit a rough patch recently but he was pretty good most of the year.
 

Indiandad

Well-known member
You trade your veterans to accumulate elite prospects. You don't trade your emerging young stars under team control for more prospects. Let's play this out....

If you trade Castillo for 3-4 elite prospects, you will be lucky if 1-2 years from now, 1 or 2 of those prospects end up being as good as Castillo. Do you then trade them as well, for more prospects? Where does this cycle end?

When a prospect pans out and becomes elite, like Castillo, you keep him as long as you can and trade the Roark / Puig / etc. guys for more prospects that might be 1-2 years away.

The KC model sucks. Houston did it right. But once Altuve emerged as a great player, they did not trade him for more prospects. They kept him on the team while waiting for Bregman, Springer, etc. to get to the bigs.
The Astros have a payroll of $199M this year and will likely top 200M next season. The Reds can't do that.

As for your scenario, it doesn't have to be perpetual. The idea is to bunch as many elite prospects together in the same time frame as possible to have a young, cheap and controlled core of 8-12 players.

As it stands now the Reds will have $120M+ payroll next year and huge holes that still need filled. Unless they sell the farm, they aren't contending next year.
 

nd2000

Active member
Reds season in a nutshell. Reds up 2-0, sonny Gray with a no-no going and just like that down 3-2 looking at yet another one run defeat thanks to horrible offense.
 

Red14

Member
Reds season in a nutshell. Reds up 2-0, sonny Gray with a no-no going and just like that down 3-2 looking at yet another one run defeat thanks to horrible offense.
A kick in the gut. Gray knew it as soon as it was hit. Gray kind of got himself in trouble with himself. He was sailing along through 5 innings, then a 22 pitch 6th inning, then in the 7th, a hit batter, walk..and he was starting to come apart. It's too bad that the offense couldn't had got 3-4 runs last night and made it easier for him to challenge hitters. Gray's been awfully good since the last few months.

Gray was at 111 pitches when he came out, it would had been interesting to see if Bell would have allowed him to continue pitching until he gave up a hit or threw a no hitter. He would had conservatively been in the 130 pitch area.
 

wolves82

Active member
The Astros have a payroll of $199M this year and will likely top 200M next season. The Reds can't do that.

As for your scenario, it doesn't have to be perpetual. The idea is to bunch as many elite prospects together in the same time frame as possible to have a young, cheap and controlled core of 8-12 players.

As it stands now the Reds will have $120M+ payroll next year and huge holes that still need filled. Unless they sell the farm, they aren't contending next year.
The big spend by the Astros came AFTER they became a relevant team and they filled up their building every night. Then they paid Altuve, acquired Verlander and Cole (and now Grienke). But salary was not really my point.

My point was the Astros were still bad, Altuve was clearly becoming elite, and they did NOT trade him for more prospects while they waited on Correa, Springer, Bregman. Much like the Reds should not, and will not, trade Castillo.
 
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Indiandad

Well-known member
A kick in the gut. Gray knew it as soon as it was hit. Gray kind of got himself in trouble with himself. He was sailing along through 5 innings, then a 22 pitch 6th inning, then in the 7th, a hit batter, walk..and he was starting to come apart. It's too bad that the offense couldn't had got 3-4 runs last night and made it easier for him to challenge hitters. Gray's been awfully good since the last few months.

Gray was at 111 pitches when he came out, it would had been interesting to see if Bell would have allowed him to continue pitching until he gave up a hit or threw a no hitter. He would had conservatively been in the 130 pitch area.
I have no problem with giving Gray the chance at the no-no.
The loss is meaningless. So is a win.

If this game had been in July in pennant race we would be talking about how 4 or 5 Reds pitchers combined for a No hitter.
Gray would have been pulled after 6 innings.
 

Indiandad

Well-known member
The big spend by the Astros came AFTER they became a relevant team and they filled up their building every night. Then they paid Altuve, acquired Verlander and Cole (and now Grienke). But salary was not really my point.

My point was the Astros were still bad, Altuve was clearly becoming elite, and they did NOT trade him for more prospects while they waited on Correa, Springer, Bregman. Much like the Reds should not, and will not, trade Castillo.
How do you see this team contending next season?
 

Monclova Steve

Well-known member
I have no problem with giving Gray the chance at the no-no.
The loss is meaningless. So is a win.

If this game had been in July in pennant race we would be talking about how 4 or 5 Reds pitchers combined for a No hitter.
Gray would have been pulled after 6 innings.
Agree with Bell's decision to leave Gray in until the no-no was broken up. Unfortunately, it was a 3-run bomb but -- as you say -- the game result was meaningless.
It is amazing that -- considering his track record of now 31 straight starts allowing 6 hits or fewer (tying Nolan Ryan's record) -- his W/L is only 10-7. It just shows how that particular stat can be very misleading. It also shows how much the Reds need to improve their offensive capabilities.
 

Monclova Steve

Well-known member
How do you see this team contending next season?
I hate to be the skunk @ the garden party, but I see next year as one in which the youngsters' roles get more defined. The Reds still haven't identified who will be a valuable piece of this puzzle. The only way to contention, though, is via a larger core of young players under contract control who are going to be here for awhile.
As of now, we don't know which players are capable of performing at a high enough level to help make the Reds a contending team. Hopefully, next season will answer many of those questions.
Contending next season? The Reds aren't that close yet.
 
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