The Official 2018 Cincinnati Reds Thread

Monclova Steve said:
Or, perhaps it doesn't go to a hearing -- as most of these type of cases get settled beforehand.
I would love to see both parties reach agreement on a multi-year contract. I tend to think that that is what is going to happen. Both Gennett and Sensel can coexist quite well on this team.
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tis the reason I said or they will find a number in the middle.
 
14Red said:
I like Schebler as a player, but he's not a centerfielder. He's an average to below average right fielder, and you want to put him in center??? How about trying to help our pitchers instead of hurting them?? His OBP would have to be .375 or higher to take away the deficiency. Also, Schebler is a strikeout machine. He strikes out way too much for me. He's a sucker for a high fastball, and he strikes out on those alot. Nice 4th outfielder. That's about it. My outfield for 2019, with what we have now is Winker in right, Hamilton in center and I'd platoon Ervin and Schebler in left. I'd guess Senzel gets every chance in the world to make the team. But between vertigo and injury, I'm not real hopeful he's going to make a huge impact just yet.
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We all agree Billy is an elite defender (.994 fielding pct, 12 OF assists, range factor (2.4) is 4th best in MLB). Anyone is a step down, defensively. But to call Schebler below average is stupid. He made 6 errors in 815 innings (.970) and his speed is great, range factor 1.89 is above average. I would call him "average" defensively at worst, maybe slightly above average.

But the point you keep missing is that elite defense only wins you a couple of incremental games a year, as compared to average defense. Schebler's offensive advantage over Billy would result in more runs, more wins. I've posted the numbers for you many times.

As for Schebler the "strikeout machine", yes he had 99 K in his 380 AB, but your guy had 132 K in 504 AB. They both strikeout 26% of plate appearances. But you get power with Schebler's (17 HR vs. 4) strikeouts.

Obvious choice, for anyone who understands baseball math...
 
Monclova Steve said:
Brantley is a free agent who made $11.5M last year. He made the All-Star team, finishing the year with a .309 BA, .364 OBP, .832 OPS.
Should the Reds look at bringing him in? The answer is NO.

The Reds' biggest weakness -- by far -- is starting pitching. That's where the $$$ need to go.
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Agreed!
 
thavoice said:
and the Reds will offer what they feel and let the arbitrator decide unless they come to meet in the middle.

What he gets kind of depends on what his agent pushes for. If it is ridiculous number then the Reds have a great chance at winning in the hearing.
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Gennett has a better case to argue he's worth more than the Reds have that he is worth less. The arbitrator also takes into consideration how other players in the league with similar performance are paid.

The Reds do not want to go into an arbitration hearing with Gennett.
 
Gh0st said:
Gennett has a better case to argue he's worth more than the Reds have that he is worth less. The arbitrator also takes into consideration how other players in the league with similar performance are paid.

The Reds do not want to go into an arbitration hearing with Gennett.
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Again, it depends on what his agent asks for.

If it is outrageous then they have a shot, if its reasonable then that is a different story.
 
thavoice said:
Again, it depends on what his agent asks for.

If it is outrageous then they have a shot, if its reasonable then that is a different story.
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I'm assuming he doesn't have a terrible agent. My point is that what is considered reasonable for Gennett has a strong chance of being higher than the Reds can realistically or sensibly afford. He holds all the cards in an arbitration hearing.
 
Gh0st said:
I'm assuming he doesn't have a terrible agent. My point is that what is considered reasonable for Gennett has a strong chance of being higher than the Reds can realistically or sensibly afford. He holds all the cards in an arbitration hearing.
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No so fast my friend. Scooter I think changes the Reds on the money side. Other than Votto and Bailey, the Reds are in great shape moneywise. They gave Tucker and Suarez pretty good deals, and team friendly ones as well. With Bailey coming off the books in '19, the team has some money to spend in my opinion. A guy like Scooter would be worth socking some money into. Now I don't think other teams are going to come at him with much moneywise.
 
14Red said:
No so fast my friend. Scooter I think changes the Reds on the money side. Other than Votto and Bailey, the Reds are in great shape moneywise. They gave Tucker and Suarez pretty good deals, and team friendly ones as well. With Bailey coming off the books in '19, the team has some money to spend in my opinion. A guy like Scooter would be worth socking some money into. Now I don't think other teams are going to come at him with much moneywise.
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The Reds are not in great shape financially. They have lost 90+ a year for four straight years with a payroll around 100 million each year. Their largest payroll of all time was $114M. They are nearly at their max dollars now and still are losing 90+ games a year.

Schebler and Peraza could both be Super 2 players. They'll eat up roughly $5M extra than if they were pre-arb players. Iglesias will likely opt into Arb and get a $2M pay raise. Billy and Scooter will get $18M combined.

After the dust settles they'll have the same team next year for about $100M. That leaves $15M to add pitching.

Remove Scooter and Billy and replace them with Ervin and Senzel and they'll have an additional $17M.

That gives them at least $32M to revamp the pitching staff.
 
Of course they could offer long term contracts to Scooter and or Billy among others that would defer money till after Bailey is gone.
 
Indiandad said:
The Reds are not in great shape financially. They have lost 90+ a year for four straight years with a payroll around 100 million each year. Their largest payroll of all time was $114M. They are nearly at their max dollars now and still are losing 90+ games a year.

Schebler and Peraza could both be Super 2 players. They'll eat up roughly $5M extra than if they were pre-arb players. Iglesias will likely opt into Arb and get a $2M pay raise. Billy and Scooter will get $18M combined.

After the dust settles they'll have the same team next year for about $100M. That leaves $15M to add pitching.

Remove Scooter and Billy and replace them with Ervin and Senzel and they'll have an additional $17M.

That gives them at least $32M to revamp the pitching staff.
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The Reds are way below the major league average on team salaries. They can do alot better. Now I'm not a guy who just automatically says spend money. As we see in baseball (Angels) spending money doesn't always equal winning. I really feel the club will go out and get two starters during the offseason.
 
14Red said:
The Reds are way below the major league average on team salaries. They can do alot better. Now I'm not a guy who just automatically says spend money. As we see in baseball (Angels) spending money doesn't always equal winning. I really feel the club will go out and get two starters during the offseason.
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The Reds always will be below the league average in salary. They are small market.
 
What do you think guys, is it now time to trade Senzel??? I can't make this stuff up. He's due to play in the Arizona Fall league, but now shut down. Having surgery on his elbow to remove bone chips.

Are you kidding me???
 
14Red said:
What do you think guys, is it now time to trade Senzel??? I can't make this stuff up. He's due to play in the Arizona Fall league, but now shut down. Having surgery on his elbow to remove bone chips.

Are you kidding me???
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Yeah, sell low. The time to sell him would have been 2 years ago when they knew they didn’t have a position for him.
 
14Red said:
What do you think guys, is it now time to trade Senzel??? I can't make this stuff up. He's due to play in the Arizona Fall league, but now shut down. Having surgery on his elbow to remove bone chips.

Are you kidding me???
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It's a bone spur in his non throwing elbow. He'll be fine.
 
I am all for spending big bucks on a FA or to retain a player....if he is one of the last pieces to win like we THOUGHT Griffey was in '99 or so.
 
14Red said:
What do you think guys, is it now time to trade Senzel??? I can't make this stuff up. He's due to play in the Arizona Fall league, but now shut down. Having surgery on his elbow to remove bone chips.

Are you kidding me???
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Not a business person, are you? Why trade when what you are trading has it's lowest value?
 
The Reds had been working with Senzel in Arizona on playing the outfield, both LF and CF.
Wait........CF?
Considering 14Red's bromance with Billy, is it any wonder why he's ready to pull the plug on last year's #2 overall pick in the draft?
I fully expect the Reds to take steps to develop someone to play CF to replace BH. They have plenty of candidates -- none of whom might equal Billy as a defensive player of course, but the offensive potential may outweigh that drawback; not to mention they are much cheaper.
 
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Monclova Steve said:
The Reds had been working with Senzel in Arizona on playing the outfield, both LF and CF.
Wait........CF?
Considering 14Red's bromance with Billy, is it any wonder why he's ready to pull the plug on last year's #2 overall pick in the draft?
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So let me get this straight, you want to put a 3rd baseman, who's never played the outfield, and put him in centerfield?

This has nothing to do with liking or disliking Billy, but do you not put any value on defense? We've not even determined if Senzel can play more than 20-25 games without getting hurt.
 
14Red said:
So let me get this straight, you want to put a 3rd baseman, who's never played the outfield, and put him in centerfield?

This has nothing to do with liking or disliking Billy, but do you not put any value on defense? We've not even determined if Senzel can play more than 20-25 games without getting hurt.
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1) Please don't tell me what I think.
2) Where did I say I immediately want to put Sensel in CF? You might want to re-check my post that you quoted.
3) How much experience in CF (or anywhere but SS) did Billy have before he came to the Reds?
 
Should the Reds consider a trade of bad contracts? Tyler Chatwood is terrible with a 5.3 ERA and an atrocious WHIP of 1.8 At age 28 and owed 25.5M over 2 seasons. A trade of Homer Bailey for Chatwood might make sense for both clubs.

Cubs point of view: Both suck equally as bad but Bailey is under contract for 1 year. They can afford the extra 12.5M next season in order to save it in 2020. That might be enough to cover Bryant's arbitration raise in 2020. Also the luxury tax penalty will be 20%in 2020 as opposed to 10% next season. That's another $1.35M savings.

Reds point of view: It would free up an additional $12.5M for 2019 but reduce 2020 by 13M. Any other FA acquisition contracts could be structured with that in mind.

This type of "bad contract swap" might be beneficial for the Reds and the Cubs.

Your thoughts?
 
14Red said:
No so fast my friend. Scooter I think changes the Reds on the money side. Other than Votto and Bailey, the Reds are in great shape moneywise. They gave Tucker and Suarez pretty good deals, and team friendly ones as well. With Bailey coming off the books in '19, the team has some money to spend in my opinion. A guy like Scooter would be worth socking some money into. Now I don't think other teams are going to come at him with much moneywise.
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You don't think other teams are going to come at a second baseman hitting .300, 90+ RBIs, 25 home runs, and an OBP higher than Joey Votto?

Okay...

Gennett is well past any team friendly contracts and should be among the highest paid second basemen in the game. Any agent with a brain will try and get him exactly that.
 
14Red said:
So let me get this straight, you want to put a 3rd baseman, who's never played the outfield, and put him in centerfield?

This has nothing to do with liking or disliking Billy, but do you not put any value on defense? We've not even determined if Senzel can play more than 20-25 games without getting hurt.
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Yeah, I say do it.
 
Indiandad said:
Should the Reds consider a trade of bad contracts? Tyler Chatwood is terrible with a 5.3 ERA and an atrocious WHIP of 1.8 At age 28 and owed 25.5M over 2 seasons. A trade of Homer Bailey for Chatwood might make sense for both clubs.

Cubs point of view: Both suck equally as bad but Bailey is under contract for 1 year. They can afford the extra 12.5M next season in order to save it in 2020. That might be enough to cover Bryant's arbitration raise in 2020. Also the luxury tax penalty will be 20%in 2020 as opposed to 10% next season. That's another $1.35M savings.

Reds point of view: It would free up an additional $12.5M for 2019 but reduce 2020 by 13M. Any other FA acquisition contracts could be structured with that in mind.

This type of "bad contract swap" might be beneficial for the Reds and the Cubs.

Your thoughts?
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Sure, but it won’t happen.
 
14Red said:
So let me get this straight, you want to put a 3rd baseman, who's never played the outfield, and put him in centerfield?

This has nothing to do with liking or disliking Billy, but do you not put any value on defense? We've not even determined if Senzel can play more than 20-25 games without getting hurt.
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Yes as wolves and others have pointed out defense doesnt save you as many runs as you think. When looking at potential runs created by someone who can get on base, it is a net positive replacing Billy with someone who is just average at the plate.

You seem to ignore any stats wolves has provided you. He has said this multiple times and provided the data to back it up.
 
I dont have issues moving guys around to a different position. IF a kid is athletic enough he can get it done.
Just wish this Hamilton could learn how to hit or get on base, OR the team have enough firepower they could just handle him as a defensive stud.
 
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