Omar
Well-known member
I honestly didn’t think he’d want the job. Thought he was a lock to St Louis after Matheny was fired. But yes, this is a move the Reds desperately need to make.
The Official 2018 Cincinnati Reds Thread
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I honestly didn’t think he’d want the job. Thought he was a lock to St Louis after Matheny was fired. But yes, this is a move the Reds desperately need to make.
The Reds need a serious infusion of talent. Girardi could help attract that talent.
Omar
Well-known member
You can’t win through FA. For small mkt teams, you have to win with homegrown talented supplemented by FAs
The "homegrown" talent has fizzled. They need to bring in outside help.
Omar
Well-known member
India, Senzel, Trammel, Green haven’t even gotten to the Big Leagues. They need outside help, but that help doesn’t mean anything unless those 4 develop.
Omar
Well-known member
That’s reasonable. I was under the impression you thought they would go after Superstars like Kershaw or Harper. The Reds will never sign those types of FAs.
I think Indiandad wants them to trade for/sign around 20-30 mill in SP. I agree with that but i would prefer to open the coffers in a couple of years, dependent on the team being better and those 4 developing. Id rather spend/trade when the Reds have a realistic shot at winning a WS. However if they can get someone who they can control for a while then that may change things.
It really depends on how much money the Reds are willing to spend. If it is only $115M ($15M increase) then they should just sit back and wait (tank again). If they push payroll to $130-$140M then I believe they have enough in the position group and some pitching that adding $30M-$40M in pitching and CF will make them contenders for a title.
The Cubs watched their window crash shut this fall unless they are willing to spend $250-$275M or can pull off some judicious trades.
The Cards will always be near the top regardless of the year.
The Brewers have a $150M payroll next year to hold this team together. They'll likely trim that back to the $125-$135M range.
The Pirates will always need to catch lightning in a bottle to be relevant.
If the Brewers can compete and win with $120M (this seasons payroll) then the Reds need to find a way to do the same. Unfortunately Bailey and Votto make that difficult this their huge contracts. Votto isn't going anywhere with his veto power. If the Reds can move Bailey (HUGE IF) via bad contract swap or paying a team via prospects then they should definitely open up the coffers this offseason to get pitching.
The Reds prospect core are just that, prospects. They may become great players but they may not. I have no problem dealing prospects for proven, controllable talent. The Reds have enough depth in the minors that they can deal some guys (not necessarily from the core) to acquire talent for the big league club.
Reds FO priorities should be
1) move Bailey
2) acquire bonafide controllable pitching via trade or FA
Once they have done at a minimum number 2 then they can 3) decide if Hamilton and Scooter fit into the budget and long term plan.
If the Reds are unable to accomplish either 1 or 2 then they need to move on from Scooter and Hamilton as well as trade Iglesias and Suarez to add talent around their prospect core for a run in 3 years.
The Cubs watched their window crash shut this fall unless they are willing to spend $250-$275M or can pull off some judicious trades.
The Cards will always be near the top regardless of the year.
The Brewers have a $150M payroll next year to hold this team together. They'll likely trim that back to the $125-$135M range.
The Pirates will always need to catch lightning in a bottle to be relevant.
If the Brewers can compete and win with $120M (this seasons payroll) then the Reds need to find a way to do the same. Unfortunately Bailey and Votto make that difficult this their huge contracts. Votto isn't going anywhere with his veto power. If the Reds can move Bailey (HUGE IF) via bad contract swap or paying a team via prospects then they should definitely open up the coffers this offseason to get pitching.
The Reds prospect core are just that, prospects. They may become great players but they may not. I have no problem dealing prospects for proven, controllable talent. The Reds have enough depth in the minors that they can deal some guys (not necessarily from the core) to acquire talent for the big league club.
Reds FO priorities should be
1) move Bailey
2) acquire bonafide controllable pitching via trade or FA
Once they have done at a minimum number 2 then they can 3) decide if Hamilton and Scooter fit into the budget and long term plan.
If the Reds are unable to accomplish either 1 or 2 then they need to move on from Scooter and Hamilton as well as trade Iglesias and Suarez to add talent around their prospect core for a run in 3 years.
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wolves82
Highly Respected Expert
Indiandad - my opinion is that your thinking is generally very sound, but I have seen no indications that the Reds are willing to open the pocketbook that wide for FA pitchers. I wish they would, as I agree the position players are about the same caliber as the other contenders.
Another concern - FA pitchers see how the ball flies out of GABP. Are we the new Colorado, where no pitchers want to go?
Another concern - FA pitchers see how the ball flies out of GABP. Are we the new Colorado, where no pitchers want to go?
Omar
Well-known member
That would be my preference, but they’re still at least 1 more season away from having their core guys up. Senzel should be up this Yr, India and Trammel in ‘20, Greene might be ready in ‘21.
Correct, which is why any acquisitions need to be 2-4 year deals.
Im not familiar with how many pitchers that are available to trade/sign for that would give the Reds 4 years of control. I would think trading/signing this year at least 4 years of control would be mandatory based on when the Reds could realistically compete. Maybe there are some guys with 2-3 years of control that would maybe sign an extension with the Reds after the
Any pitcher worth trading for with 4 years of control left is going to cost a large prospect price. The Reds best bet is to trade for someone with 2 years left and extend. This will likely not cost the Reds a top 5 prospect (unless it is Syndergaard). Keep in mind that teams that are trading that pitcher away are likely looking at the cost savings (Degrom could bring $20M+ in Arb3) as well as the prospect return.
For instance, Berrios from Minnesota has 4 years of control left. He posted a 3.84 ERA and a WHIP of 1.144 over a 192 innings. He is a legit stud at 24 years old. It would take Hunter Greene and Taylor Trammel plus some to pry him loose.
Whereas Syndergaard will likely make $8M+ in Arb2 next season and is controllable for 3 seasons (Super 2 player)
will get very expensive for the Mets as will Degrom and Wheeler. The Mets are in dire need of cheap offense so big league ready, cheap position players may be appealing enough. I'd guess 4 prospects like Shed Long and Nick Longhi as well as Tony Santillan and Dilson Herrera or Phillip Ervin.
It really depends on what the Reds can do in Free Agency though. If they can land a Trevor Cahill and Ryu and bring back Harvey for a combined $25M or less per year then there is no reason to deal away prospects. This would also allow them to extend Scooter and offer Arb3 to Billy. This would keep payroll at ~$125M.
Girardi withdraws from the Reds managerial search....
He says he wants to return to the dugout at some point but for now will stay in television.
Were the Reds unwilling to pay enough?
Were they unwilling to pursue FA talent that Girardi wanted?
Did Girardi just feel like the Reds have no chance of ever fielding a contender?
He says he wants to return to the dugout at some point but for now will stay in television.
Were the Reds unwilling to pay enough?
Were they unwilling to pursue FA talent that Girardi wanted?
Did Girardi just feel like the Reds have no chance of ever fielding a contender?
I would assume it was a mixture of cost and Girardi making demands the cheap owners wont commit to (spending money in free agency).
He probably realized the Reds arent that close to contending without opening up the check books. I would imagine he wants to walk into a win now situation.
He probably realized the Reds arent that close to contending without opening up the check books. I would imagine he wants to walk into a win now situation.
Reportedly he withdrew his name after meeting with Castellini.
eastside_purple
Well-known member
I called last year Giradi wouldn’t take this job. :shrug:
Gh0st
Well-known member
Probably after hearing Castellini wan't going to spend any money.
eastside_purple
Well-known member
Let’s be honest, Giradi had no interest in the Reds job. However he does have an interest in keeping his name a hot commodity for managing positions within the baseball public and hiring circles.