Tate Martell to Miami (FL)

So, between Burrow at LSU, Martell at Miami, Fields at tOSU, and Hurts at Oklahoma. They will probably all get to start next year Burrow and Hurts definite - unless of course they somehow get beat out.
Which qb will have the best year?
I think Hurts' experience and Oklahoma's offense could be better than this year.
Which team will benefit the most?
Hard to pick against Oklahoma for that. Hard to believe Fields can bring tOSU a better year than Haskins did. Burrow and LSU should be very solid. Miami with a new coach (who I liked in an interview) and new qb seems like a lot of potential. Diaz says he wants to be a risk taker. I look for Miami to have some games against lesser opponents with some really gaudy offensive numbers.

I would say tOSU and Fields definitely will be under the most pressure to perform.
 

Gh0st

Well-known member
I think we can safely say that everyone, possibly even the CFP committee is going to want to see Hurts vs Tua in the playoff.
 

Auggie

Well-known member
A legit question, is it better for a big name program to now recruit a lower rated "system" kid that is more about the name of the school on a jersey and groom him as a multi year back up and then get your starter from the transfer market? Could be the wave of the future...
 

lotr10

Well-known member
I disagree. What Haskins did this year makes what happens next year irrelevant when discussing the starting Haskins vs. Burrow debate. Passing up on the greatest passing season by an OSU QB for 2 average years with Burrow is the wrong choice. Look, Burrow wasn't even that good at LSU this past year. He threw less than 2,900 yards, 16 touchdowns and his completion percentage was 57.8%. Blame some of that on the offensive system and players around him but he still ranked 54th in passing yards, 86th in passing TDs and 79th in completion percentage in FBS football. He is a game manager with some mobility.

I personally think the biggest reasons he didn't start in Georgia are: the incumbent lead his team to a national title the previous year, the incumbent did not suffer an injury (the only reason Fromm started last year was Eason's injury), Fromm is pretty damn good himself, Fromm fits the offense better than Fields. It's no different than Haskins not starting over Barrett, minus the NC appearance.
This is about what would have been best for the Ohio State Buckeyes, NOT who had the best statistical passing season. And next year does matter because Haskins has chosen to enter the draft and will not be available for OSU while Burrow would have been available.

And while it's easy for us to say in hindsight that Haskins should have started over Barret the final difference in TEAM performance between the two was negligible:

2017: 12 - 2; #5 in final AP Poll

2018: 13 - 1; #3 in final AP Poll

And the most important stat is that the Bucs did not make the playoffs either year.

As for Burrow, considering he transferred over the summer to LSU which put him in a completely new offensive system and required him to beat out 3 incumbent QB's comparing gross passing stats is a case of comparing apples & oranges IMO. But there's no doubt that from a TEAM perspective Burrow improved LSU:

2017: 9 - 4; #18 in final AP Poll

2018: 10 - 3; #6 in final AP Poll.

Sure OSU had a better defense in 2017 then 2018 which helped Barret out but LSU lost almost their entire starting O-Line, WR's & RB's from 2017. Not to mention that LSU this year arguably played the toughest schedule in college football.

As far as Field goes, who knows why he didn't start. We can speculate that it was politics or crappy assessments by the Georgia staff or we can speculate he wasn't good enough to beat out the starter. Only time will tell which is more likley to have been true.
 

lotr10

Well-known member
Take a look at the advanced metrics of the LSU offense and Burrow. Any way you look at it he was very average but that was a big step up for LSU offensive standards.

This is 14red level....
Using advanced metrics in football is a fools errand IMO. This type of mathematical modeling should stay in baseball where it at least has a chance of offering insight. In football, I don't see much use to it. But then again I'm an old fart so what do I know!
 

lotr10

Well-known member
A legit question, is it better for a big name program to now recruit a lower rated "system" kid that is more about the name of the school on a jersey and groom him as a multi year back up and then get your starter from the transfer market? Could be the wave of the future...
I think you've hit on the biggest aspect in all this - how do schools handle the new reality of college football "free agency". There's almost an NFL aspect about how these programs are going to have to do things. I'm actually looking forward to it because given the recent boredom of the playoff match-ups this offers some new wrinkles in college football.
 

lotr10

Well-known member
So, between Burrow at LSU, Martell at Miami, Fields at tOSU, and Hurts at Oklahoma. They will probably all get to start next year Burrow and Hurts definite - unless of course they somehow get beat out.
Which qb will have the best year?
By "best year" do you mean which QB will have the best stats or which QB's team will do the best?

My guess is Hurts will have the best stats though Burrow will have decent stats especially going by what he was able to do the last 2 games of the season against Texas A&M and UCF.

But from a TEAM perspective I would bet LSU does better then Oklahoma. Now part of this is that I expect Bama to be down a bit and Texas to beat out Oklahoma in the Big 12 for that playoff spot. I can see LSU making a serious run for a playoff spot.

But one thing is for sure if Burrow & Hurts both have great statistical seasons and their teams excel the floodgates will open on college football free agency (if they haven't already). I do think all this makes the season even more interesting.
 

Crusaders

Moderator
It would be dumb to rely on the transfer wire for QBs. You're assuming programs will continue to behave as they do and that nearly every season there will be a healthy crop of kids to pick from. Things are in an adjustment period. It will balance out.
 

Arrogate

Well-known member
Using advanced metrics in football is a fools errand IMO. This type of mathematical modeling should stay in baseball where it at least has a chance of offering insight. In football, I don't see much use to it. But then again I'm an old fart so what do I know!
Not sure if serious.....
 

Stirred not Shaken

Well-known member
A legit question, is it better for a big name program to now recruit a lower rated "system" kid that is more about the name of the school on a jersey and groom him as a multi year back up and then get your starter from the transfer market? Could be the wave of the future...
No you win with recruiting the best players you can get. Texas lost two back up QB's to transfer ( and possibly a 3rd QB ) this year, even 3 star QB's are not going to wait their turn. I think over all it will help with parity in college football.
 
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lotr10

Well-known member
Not sure if serious.....
Very serious. Though I'll admit that I'm ignorant as to how metrics are being used to predict both team & individual performance. can you link to any info that suggests the value of this approach?

My skepticism is based on the complexity of a single football play. What metrics can be use for example to describe a QB's accuracy? Is it % completion? Because if it is how do you account for differences in O-line, receiver, defensive and situational play impacting every pass? For example on 3rd & 15 I would expect that a QB who throws 10 yard completions to have a high % completion, but is that good or bad?
 

Arrogate

Well-known member
If they are continually 3rd and 15 and do a ton of check downs (enough to make a real change in the percentages) the QB likely has a lower completion percentage. He likely had many incompletions to get them in that scenario so often. He also probably had worse stats in other areas. Completion percentage is just one part of the picture. But advanced metrics goal is to try and take those scenarios into account. That is why they are "advanced" and not just "stats" with simple computations.


There are many people who compile metrics/"figures"..... and for vastly different reasons.

The real good "figures" I am sure the public never sees bc they are used for gambling purposes/NFL etc. Some sites are out there that offer advanced metrics and ratings/rankings for that specific set of data. This would be the next "tier" that the public could buy.

This is some of the "free rankings" but they charge for more detailed analysis

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/feioff


Play around on there. There are team and individual stats. This is just one of many sites that are out there. If you take the time to check Google you will find they try to take into account a lot of different factors and handicap them accordingly.

http://bcftoys.com/notes

This is a link on that site that explains his "garbage time" parameters.

In the end the "validity" you place on advanced metrics really depends on how much you trust the guy's "method" and appropriate handicaps. I have learned from horse racing not all algorithms are created equal. The really really good stuff probably isnt available to us (whale gamblers, NFL etc) but there is still a lot of good info out there for payment and free

There is a ton of stuff out for basketball as well. Horse racing is completely dominated by "advanced stats"
the big computer gamblers make a killing with it.
 
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thavoice

Well-known member
Actually a change in coaching should be all a kid needs to leave one program for another. I think the days of college football having a stranglehold on a kids freedom to market his services are on the way out.

If you let Fields be eligible immediately based on something that may or may not have happened then how do you deny Martel his freedom when the coach that recruited him for one skill set - dual threat QB with an emphasis on running - is replaced by a guy who may favor a completely different style of play?
Whether it should or should not be a valid reason is discussion for another day as right now, it just wont be enough.


They NCAA will rubber stamp that Fields transfer to play as they are not going to touch it with a 33 1/2 foot pole
 

thavoice

Well-known member
If Fields excels and gets an invite to NY for the Heisman in his career, then OSU will finally be on the map as a destination for all the top flight QBs.

They haven't had a first round QB since the 80s and Schleuster , sp?
 

Taco MacArthur

Active member
This is about what would have been best for the Ohio State Buckeyes, NOT who had the best statistical passing season. And next year does matter because Haskins has chosen to enter the draft and will not be available for OSU while Burrow would have been available.

And while it's easy for us to say in hindsight that Haskins should have started over Barret the final difference in TEAM performance between the two was negligible:

2017: 12 - 2; #5 in final AP Poll

2018: 13 - 1; #3 in final AP Poll

And the most important stat is that the Bucs did not make the playoffs either year.

As for Burrow, considering he transferred over the summer to LSU which put him in a completely new offensive system and required him to beat out 3 incumbent QB's comparing gross passing stats is a case of comparing apples & oranges IMO. But there's no doubt that from a TEAM perspective Burrow improved LSU:

2017: 9 - 4; #18 in final AP Poll

2018: 10 - 3; #6 in final AP Poll.

Sure OSU had a better defense in 2017 then 2018 which helped Barret out but LSU lost almost their entire starting O-Line, WR's & RB's from 2017. Not to mention that LSU this year arguably played the toughest schedule in college football.

As far as Field goes, who knows why he didn't start. We can speculate that it was politics or crappy assessments by the Georgia staff or we can speculate he wasn't good enough to beat out the starter. Only time will tell which is more likley to have been true.
What is best for the Ohio State Buckeyes is having the best passing season for a QB ever. Why do you think Fields, the #1/2 (depending on where you look) ranked QB in his class, transferred to Ohio State? I'll give you a hint: because of what Haskins did. What he did this year not only saved the Buckeyes season due to a poor defense, but will pay dividends with future QB recruiting. Notice how was Tate the only run first, pass second QB left? Haskins - passer, Fields - passer with running ability, Baldwin - passer, Jack Miller - passer. And now you're making up hypotheticals and stating them as fact to support your argument. How do you know Burrow would have been available? You're assuming another full year under Ryan Day wouldn't have helped him more than a year under Ed O and Ensminger. For all we know, Burrow in a Ryan Day offense would have performed well enough to enter the draft himself.

How can you say it's a negligible difference between 2017 OSU and 2018 OSU when the difference is 1 win, but then turn around and say Burrows improved LSU....by the difference of 1 win? :confused:

Use every excuse you'd like. Make up any excuse you'd like. Be it short time to learn an offense, young/inexperienced team around him, offensive system. It doesn't change the fact Burrow was extraordinarily average this year. He didn't improve the offense from 2017 at all.

I already told you the reasons he didn't beat out the starter.
 

Gh0st

Well-known member
LSU has also had pretty bad QB play before Burrow. So any improvement was a big improvement for them.

LSU has relied on defense and elite running backs.
 

thavoice

Well-known member
The big ten needs Fields to have a great year to rebrand the league.


QB has always been important in football, but it is becoming even more important nowadays and like I mentioned with OSU not having first round QB talent, the Big10 hasn't had one selected in the first round since Kerry Collins in the 90s.

If Hoskins gets picked high, and Fields does great and get picks high then the Big Ten might finally start becoming a league where the elite QB's attend.
 

Arrogate

Well-known member
Does any one league have remarkably better success at producing QBs in the NFL? I guess the 1st round perception is somewhat important but there are many selling points as to why you would want to play QB in the big 10.


All a coach has to do is show them pictures of Brady, Brees, Wilson, and Cousins in their respective big 10 team uniforms.
 

Taco MacArthur

Active member
Did a quick look on NFL.com for the last 5 drafts.
Big12 - 3 drafted
Pac12 - 10
Big 10 - 8
SEC - 9
ACC- 11
G5/FCS - 16
Independent - 1
 

lotr10

Well-known member
What is best for the Ohio State Buckeyes is having the best passing season for a QB ever. Why do you think Fields, the #1/2 (depending on where you look) ranked QB in his class, transferred to Ohio State? I'll give you a hint: because of what Haskins did. What he did this year not only saved the Buckeyes season due to a poor defense, but will pay dividends with future QB recruiting. Notice how was Tate the only run first, pass second QB left? Haskins - passer, Fields - passer with running ability, Baldwin - passer, Jack Miller - passer. And now you're making up hypotheticals and stating them as fact to support your argument. How do you know Burrow would have been available? You're assuming another full year under Ryan Day wouldn't have helped him more than a year under Ed O and Ensminger. For all we know, Burrow in a Ryan Day offense would have performed well enough to enter the draft himself.

How can you say it's a negligible difference between 2017 OSU and 2018 OSU when the difference is 1 win, but then turn around and say Burrows improved LSU....by the difference of 1 win? :confused:

Use every excuse you'd like. Make up any excuse you'd like. Be it short time to learn an offense, young/inexperienced team around him, offensive system. It doesn't change the fact Burrow was extraordinarily average this year. He didn't improve the offense from 2017 at all.

I already told you the reasons he didn't beat out the starter.
You don't have to get personal about it - this isn't the debate board. I simply threw out a question which is probably on the minds of a lot of Ohio State fans. As to your points:

What is best for the Ohio State Buckeyes is to make the playoffs and win the National Championship. Sure wining the B1G and finishing top 5 is an outstanding season but whether Haskins passed for 4000 yards or 2000 yards is irrelevant if neither effort gets you in the playoffs. Yes it was fun to watch and contributed to the Bucs having a very good year but it wasn't enough to make the playoffs.

You can blame the defense all you want but OK had a weaker defense then Ohio State and still made the playoffs. I get there's a lot of reasons for that but IMO one was that OK ran the ball when it needed to in order to protect its defense. And bottom line is that in OSU's one loss, the offense only produced 20 points against a weak Purdue defense.

I don't know anything about what Burrow would have or wouldn't have done if he stayed at OSU. I threw this out as a question. We're all just speculating at this point. But I suspect that an Ohio kid might be more apt to stay for another year then most kids.

While LSU only won one more game I was mainly referring to the fact that they went from AP #18 to AP #6 in the final poll which is a big jump. It also shows just how tough the LSU schedule was.

From what I observed Burrow's stats were average directing a much below average offense against a tough schedule. LSU was hit by a perfect storm of problems in the off season prior to Burrow's arrival including graduating almost all their starting receivers & RB's and losing a whole bunch of O-linemen to graduation, injury and suspension. However by the end of the year this unit was playing much better and Burrow's numbers improved drastically.

Let's not forget that Burrow was a first year starter and needed to learn on the run. Ditto for Haskins but the OSU QB had the benefit of much better skill players & O-line and a much easier schedule early on in the season allowing him to gain experience against bad defenses.
 

lotr10

Well-known member
If they are continually 3rd and 15 and do a ton of check downs (enough to make a real change in the percentages) the QB likely has a lower completion percentage. He likely had many incompletions to get them in that scenario so often. He also probably had worse stats in other areas. Completion percentage is just one part of the picture. But advanced metrics goal is to try and take those scenarios into account. That is why they are "advanced" and not just "stats" with simple computations.


There are many people who compile metrics/"figures"..... and for vastly different reasons.

The real good "figures" I am sure the public never sees bc they are used for gambling purposes/NFL etc. Some sites are out there that offer advanced metrics and ratings/rankings for that specific set of data. This would be the next "tier" that the public could buy.

This is some of the "free rankings" but they charge for more detailed analysis

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/feioff


Play around on there. There are team and individual stats. This is just one of many sites that are out there. If you take the time to check Google you will find they try to take into account a lot of different factors and handicap them accordingly.

http://bcftoys.com/notes

This is a link on that site that explains his "garbage time" parameters.

In the end the "validity" you place on advanced metrics really depends on how much you trust the guy's "method" and appropriate handicaps. I have learned from horse racing not all algorithms are created equal. The really really good stuff probably isnt available to us (whale gamblers, NFL etc) but there is still a lot of good info out there for payment and free

There is a ton of stuff out for basketball as well. Horse racing is completely dominated by "advanced stats"
the big computer gamblers make a killing with it.
Thanks for the links.

I'm still skeptical as I believe that in football control of the variables is very poor and the data entered into the models is very subjective. I post on some NFL boards at other sites and there's a raging argument about the value of metrics in football - and I suspect this argument won't let up anytime soon.
 

Arrogate

Well-known member
FWIW that site I linked has this metric:

OFEI is offensive efficiency adjusted for the strength of the opponent defenses faced.
 

Arrogate

Well-known member
Thanks for the links.

I'm still skeptical as I believe that in football control of the variables is very poor and the data entered into the models is very subjective. I post on some NFL boards at other sites and there's a raging argument about the value of metrics in football - and I suspect this argument won't let up anytime soon.
Any chance I can get you to bet on horses? Would love to see more dumb money in paramutuel fields. You dont even need to use advanced metrics! Just teasing ya;)

I get it, many people dont want to be open to changing their mind.
 

lotr10

Well-known member
Any chance I can get you to bet on horses? Would love to see more dumb money in paramutuel fields. You dont even need to use advanced metrics! Just teasing ya;)

I get it, many people dont want to be open to changing their mind.
No way in hell!

Anyways when it comes to horse racing who needs Metrics if you know about the guy putting something funny in the feed.
 

Taco MacArthur

Active member
You don't have to get personal about it - this isn't the debate board. I simply threw out a question which is probably on the minds of a lot of Ohio State fans. As to your points:

What is best for the Ohio State Buckeyes is to make the playoffs and win the National Championship. Sure wining the B1G and finishing top 5 is an outstanding season but whether Haskins passed for 4000 yards or 2000 yards is irrelevant if neither effort gets you in the playoffs. Yes it was fun to watch and contributed to the Bucs having a very good year but it wasn't enough to make the playoffs.

You can blame the defense all you want but OK had a weaker defense then Ohio State and still made the playoffs. I get there's a lot of reasons for that but IMO one was that OK ran the ball when it needed to in order to protect its defense. And bottom line is that in OSU's one loss, the offense only produced 20 points against a weak Purdue defense.

I don't know anything about what Burrow would have or wouldn't have done if he stayed at OSU. I threw this out as a question. We're all just speculating at this point. But I suspect that an Ohio kid might be more apt to stay for another year then most kids.

While LSU only won one more game I was mainly referring to the fact that they went from AP #18 to AP #6 in the final poll which is a big jump. It also shows just how tough the LSU schedule was.

From what I observed Burrow's stats were average directing a much below average offense against a tough schedule. LSU was hit by a perfect storm of problems in the off season prior to Burrow's arrival including graduating almost all their starting receivers & RB's and losing a whole bunch of O-linemen to graduation, injury and suspension. However by the end of the year this unit was playing much better and Burrow's numbers improved drastically.

Let's not forget that Burrow was a first year starter and needed to learn on the run. Ditto for Haskins but the OSU QB had the benefit of much better skill players & O-line and a much easier schedule early on in the season allowing him to gain experience against bad defenses.
Where did I get personal?

There is more to college football than getting to and playing for the national championship. What Haskins did this year, under Ryan Day as the QB coach/OC before being named HC, legitimizes him in the eyes of recruits and HS head coaches across the country.

Oklahoma and Ohio State did not play the same schedule. Oklahoma did not not get blown out by a sub-0.500 team. Oklahoma revenged their only loss in the conference championship by double digits. It's irrelevant that Oklahoma had a statistically worse defense.

That Ohio kid, who you think is more apt to stay, left Ohio State. That kind of defeats your point, no?

Comparing where a team ranks from year to year is irrelevant. Every team is different, rankings are subjective. It's not like 2018 LSU finished 6th in the 2017 year. They finished with 1 win better than the previous year, just like OSU. You can't say one is negligible while the other is vast improvement. LSU's schedule wasn't that tough. Going by the AP poll: Miami finished unranked going 7-6 in a weak ACC, Southeastern Louisana finished 4-7, Auburn finished unranked going 8-5, Louisana Tech went 8-5 but finished unranked, Ole Miss finished unranked going 5-7 (1-7 in SEC play), MS State finished unranked at 8-5, Arkansas went 2-8 and 0-8 in SEC play, Rice went 2-11. Their only quality wins were Georgia and UCF. And even UCF was without their best player and QB when they played. They played 4 good teams and only beat 1 of them in Georgia. Yes, I'm discounting the UCF game.

Yes, Burrow improved throughout the year. It would be even more troublesome if he hadn't. That doesn't change the fact that as a 4th year player he completed 57.8% of this throws and only 16 touchdowns for the whole year, with 7 of his touchdowns coming in the last 2 games of the year.

Joe Burrow started the year against Miami, Southeastern Louisiana, Auburn, Louisiana Tech and Ole Miss who had a combined winning percentage of 0.516. It's not like he went through murderer's row to start the season.
 

thavoice

Well-known member
Does any one league have remarkably better success at producing QBs in the NFL? I guess the 1st round perception is somewhat important but there are many selling points as to why you would want to play QB in the big 10.


All a coach has to do is show them pictures of Brady, Brees, Wilson, and Cousins in their respective big 10 team uniforms.
Post below yours shows a lot of conferences with more NFL drafted QBs the last few years.
Brady and Brees are great, but were drafted nearly 20 years ago.
Cousins, who yeah has made a ton of money and is solid, wont invoke wowdom by recruits and Wilson, yeah, came from a B10 but only after transferring there for his SR year.
 

Arrogate

Well-known member
I could have worded my post better. I meant producing as in those that made it in the NFL and had above average careers. Wasn't really talking about number of players drafted but those who actually made it. But even then Taco's post didn't really show anyone being remarkably better, if anything the Big 12 outside of OU has a problem.


Point is they have selling points to make. I think Haskins has a good shot at making it. Hopefully he is drafted by a decent org.
 

thavoice

Well-known member
Maybe look at where the top 20 HS QB prospects are going.
These are just the BIg ten. Looking at the standings and wow it seems like the SEC gets a ton of them

2020 3 BIg ten
2019 2
2018: 2 BIg Ten. 17 is highest.
2017: 3 BT. 5 is highest. Tate Martell
2016: 4 bt
2015: 1 BT. BUrrows now at LSU
2014: 2
 

Arrogate

Well-known member
I Guess QBs don't want to play in the cold and elements.

SEC does have the best footprint for talent so no surprise they get a lot of high end recruits
 
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