State (Team) predictions, Division 1

yj_runfan

Well-known member
You got me thinking, Mathking. How would you feel about having Sam Richuitti, Weston Day, and Josh Razor (all Dublin kids) lining up along with Liam and Will this year? The answer... you would've crushed Mason and brought home a title. Here are my estimates of your hypothetical combined schools (Hilliard HS, Dublin HS, etc.) results in boys D1 over the last several years:

2022:
1 - Dublin 62 (Ruchuitti, Shaughnessey, Day, Razor, McGraw)
2 - Masillon 96 (Reed, Zuckett, Hill, Ilg, Ball)
3 - Mason 138
4 - St. X 151

2021:
1 - Mason 144 (adjusted due to individuals now scoring as team, wins tie break with Dublin)
2 - Dublin 144 (Shaughnessey, Frank, McGraw, Richuitti, Clemens)
3 - Massilon 148 (Reed, Zuckett, Woods, Prato, Ilg)
7 - St. X 198

2020:
1 - L. West 76 (adjusted)
2 - St X 78 (adjusted)
3 - Hilliard 138 (Davidson top 4 plus Darby's Sean Carney)
4 - Dublin 198 (Richuitti, Shaughnessey, Razor, McGraw, Frank)
11 - Mason 279

2019:
1 - St X 97 (adjusted)
2 - Mason 104
3 - Worthington 221 (TW top three plus #7 Williams and #40 Cuozzo from Kilbourne) - wins tiebreak
4 - Solon 221

2018:
No real changes... Davidson still 2nd behind Hudson

2017:
1 - Pickerington 71 (Pick North's top three, plus #3 finisher Scrape and #40 Johnson from Pick Central)
2 - Hudson 80

So yeah, looking at things this way is really interesting. We'd be talking a Dublin dynasty in the making, and one of the best ever in the 2022 squad.
How many runners from those districts go to private schools instead of their local public school? I’m not familiar with a lot of successful private school CC programs from that area. I could do a similar exercise and take the runners from St. X and add them to their public school teams. The same was true years ago when LaSalle was dominant. A lot of “what if?”
 

Mr. Slippery

Well-known member
Don't know why you are wasting your time on this, when you should be wasting your time figuring out how many podium appearances each region / district has had over the years so we can determine that NE Ohio has dominated CC since the beginning of time.
You're really going to tear me away from enjoying a bag of the most wonderful potato chips on the planet that are fried in a blend of lard, corn oil, canola oil, and soybean oil to figure all of this out?

Number of Boys state team titles by District (which District the school is currently in, some schools have switched Districts over the years. Examples include Marion Harding and Lancaster):
One Class Era/AA in 2 Class Era/AAA in 3 Class Era/DI:
Northeast: 51
Southwest: 27
Central: 9
Northwest: 8

AA in 3 Class Era/DII:
Northeast: 38
Northwest: 12
Southwest: 6
Central: 1

A in 2 and 3 Class Era/DIII:
Northeast: 24
Southwest: 11
East: 10
Northwest: 7
Central: 1

Number of Boys state team runner-ups by District (which District the school is currently in, some schools have switched Districts over the years):
One Class Era/AA in 2 Class Era/AAA in 3 Class Era/DI:
Northeast: 45
Southwest: 28
Central: 12
Northwest: 12

AA in 3 Class Era/DII:
Northeast: 29
Southwest: 14
Northwest: 10
Southeast: 2
Central: 1
East: 1

A in 2 Class and 3 Class Era/DIII:
Northeast: 27
Northwest: 13
Southwest: 6
Central: 4
East: 3
Southeast: 1

Number of Girls state team titles by District (which District the school is currently in, some schools have switched Districts over the years. Examples include Lancaster and Minerva):
AAA/DI:
Southwest: 18
Northeast: 11
Central: 9
Northwest: 7

A-AA/AA/DII:
Northeast: 28
Northwest: 10
Central: 3
Southwest: 3
East: 1

A/DIII:
Northwest: 20
Northeast: 4
Southwest: 4
East: 1

Number of Girls state team runner-ups by District (which District the school is currently in, some schools have switched Districts over the years. Examples include Lancaster and Minerva):
AAA/DI:
Southwest: 17
Northeast: 13
Central: 9
Northwest: 6
East: 1

A-AA/AA/DII:
Northeast: 15
Northwest: 10
Southwest: 10
Central: 6
East: 3
Southeast: 1

A/DIII:
Northwest: 17
Southwest: 6
Northeast: 4
Central: 1
East: 1

These numbers include ties from the Dark Ages before the rulebook enabled teams to "prevail."

What do I conclude from all of this? I was perfectly content just sitting back eating potato chips.
 
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mathking

Well-known member
May require some digging up of an old school district map, but what would this year's Coffman roster look like if Jerome wasn't built? I assume there might be kids on the current Coffman team who'd be at Scioto under the old 2 HS configuration.

I've often wondered how dominant Dublin, Hilliard, and Westerville would be across a variety of sports if they had simply remained at 2 HSs. It's amazing to think that Davidson's 2nd football title came right after Bradley opened, but I know the upperclassmen in Bradley's attendance area were allowed to finish at their previous HS if they wished. Olentangy is a different situation in my eyes because the district encompasses multiple townships where the extra HSs that have been built are still taking in a lot of territory.
The top five guys would all have been in Coffman's old attendance district. It's really too hard to know where the Jerome kids would be, particularly since Jerome is now the largest of the three high schools.

I want to make it clear again that it's a good thing we are not a one or two high school district. Way too many really good athletes would never have gotten to shine. The same thing holds true for Hilliard. Think about some of the Davidson and Darby boys teams in the 00s. I have been working the past couple of years go get a robotics team at each high school for much the same reason.

Back on the subject of the impact of school size on performance, Coach Rapp indicated he believed (and I think he is clearly correct) that this year's victory was because of the efforts of their 4-5-6 runners. They had the (really amazing when you think about it) depth to overcome their #1 runner not finishing and still win. Lancaster had one kid have a really rough day (he did finish) and that cost them the win. The twice as large school is just going to be more likely to have the depth to more runners capable of stepping up when someone isn't having a good day. Acknowledging that does not mean dismissing the accomplishments of Mason this year and over time. They have a fantastic program.
 

Lancermania

Lancers lead the way!
I still think the biggest factor is getting kids into the program, and coaching and culture are a big part of that. I looked at the varsity and open race at the GMC league meet, here's how Mason compared to the two Lakota schools:

Mason - 73 runners
West - 37 runners
East - 26 runners

Mason is not twice the size of those schools, but they have twice as many runners. Mason for whatever reason appears to be more effective than other large schools at getting kids interested in running cross country. The more kids you can get into the program, the more successful you're likely to be.
This reinforces what I believe. The biggest factor is who the coach is, then comes the size of the school.
Lakota West has 2,564 students and guess how many times they qualified a girls team to the state meet. Listen up, people. Sean Hart, the Lakota West girls coach, claims this was the first, that's right the first team to make it to state with between 1250-1300 girls at the school.
 

psycho_dad

Well-known member
Now I just feel sorry for the Southeast District. I also feel sorry for the East District. I feel bad for the Central. Don't feel real good for the Northwest. How are the poor people of the Southwest District so delusional? The NE is like a bully. Do a lot more people choose to live in the NE, or just better faster people? Are the coaches really twice as good as the next closest District? On a day like today, It makes me wonder if our votes should also count more in the NE than the rest of the state?

Mr. Slippery did the easy work. Now, the hard work of living with the facts can begin.
 

Lancermania

Lancers lead the way!
Let's not forget that Coach Howard did his own running in the Southwest at New Richmond. Is he in their Hall of Fame yet? If not, should I nominate him? Is Jeff the official head coach for girls at Woodridge also?
 

psycho_dad

Well-known member
Let's not forget that Coach Howard did his own running in the Southwest at New Richmond. Is he in their Hall of Fame yet? If not, should I nominate him? Is Jeff the official head coach for girls at Woodridge also?
I believe his title is Denomination Supremo.
 

Supertramp

Active member
Now I just feel sorry for the Southeast District. I also feel sorry for the East District. I feel bad for the Central. Don't feel real good for the Northwest. How are the poor people of the Southwest District so delusional? The NE is like a bully. Do a lot more people choose to live in the NE, or just better faster people? Are the coaches really twice as good as the next closest District? On a day like today, It makes me wonder if our votes should also count more in the NE than the rest of the state?

Mr. Slippery did the easy work. Now, the hard work of living with the facts can begin.
But what have you done for me lately?

Since 1989 when they split into Divisions I, II, and III, the D1 Cincinnati District has been more successful than the entire D1 Northeast Region.

Podium Appearances:
Southwest: 33
Cincinnati: 27
Northeast: 18
Central: 11
Northwest: 6

State Championships:
Southwest: 17
Cincinnati: 14
Northeast: 11
Central: 4
Northwest: 2

State Runner-Up:
Southwest: 16
Cincinnati: 13
Northeast: 7
Central: 7
Northwest: 4
 

psycho_dad

Well-known member
But what have you done for me lately?

Since 1989 when they split into Divisions I, II, and III, the D1 Cincinnati District has been more successful than the entire D1 Northeast Region.

Podium Appearances:
Southwest: 33
Cincinnati: 27
Northeast: 18
Central: 11
Northwest: 6

State Championships:
Southwest: 17
Cincinnati: 14
Northeast: 11
Central: 4
Northwest: 2

State Runner-Up:
Southwest: 16
Cincinnati: 13
Northeast: 7
Central: 7
Northwest: 4
Such a D1 mentality. I do not choose to live my life so narrowminded. D2 and D3 are people too. Kinda.

Go back and look at the Mason girls podium pic. Straight up killers! I haven't seen thugs like that since CVCA girls last championship team. Are those slings from broken arms on a couple of those girls? enforcers? How on earth can those girls in the front row kneel like that without their knees screaming? Not natural. I count 8 medals! Did one of them just take one from someone?

Thank goodness for the armed policemen.
 
This reinforces what I believe. The biggest factor is who the coach is, then comes the size of the school.
Lakota West has 2,564 students and guess how many times they qualified a girls team to the state meet. Listen up, people. Sean Hart, the Lakota West girls coach, claims this was the first, that's right the first team to make it to state with between 1250-1300 girls at the school.
My son ran for Coach Rapp at Mason several years ago. A few years after graduating HS, my son decided to run the Cincinnati Flying Pig Marathon for the first time. At around 20/21 miles, my son was really struggling. Mason High had set up refreshment tables at around the 21 mile mark, and when Coach Rapp noted my son’s struggles, he joined him on the course, and ran with him for the next mile, providing encouragement. My son finished the race, and has since ran several marathons, including Boston.

To this day, my son would absolutely run through a wall for Coach Rapp.
 
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