State Meet Predictions

[Newton's Third]

Bay was right there through 4 with Unioto and Waynesville. Just a few seconds here and there for each man makes a big difference. Looks like all 3 teams were within a point of each other through 4.

Bay's 3, 4, & 5 were 80, 82, & 83 (overall, not team scoring) at the mile. Bay was 110 points behind Woodridge & 71 behind Unioto at the mile.

 

[bucksman]

Bay's 3, 4, & 5 were 80, 82, & 83 (overall, not team scoring) at the mile. Bay was 110 points behind Woodridge & 71 behind Unioto at the mile.

I presume psycho_dad was talking about the position of the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th runners - probably implying that the 5th runner for each team was a part of the difference, along with fractional margins in each of the first four positions. He could correct me if wrong.

 

[Mr. Slippery]

Bay was right there through 4 with Unioto and Waynesville. Just a few seconds here and there for each man makes a big difference. Looks like all 3 teams were within a point of each other through 4.

Bay's 3, 4, & 5 were 80, 82, & 83 (overall, not team scoring) at the mile. Bay was 110 points behind Woodridge & 71 behind Unioto at the mile.

I presume psycho_dad was talking about the position of the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th runners - probably implying that the 5th runner for each team was a part of the difference, along with fractional margins in each of the first four positions. He could correct me if wrong.

All of you make good points but are saying a couple different things here.

In the scoring places at the finish,
Bay: 15, 17, 21, 41, 69. Bay had 94 pts. through 4 finishers.
Unioto: 5, 6, 34, 49, 55. Unioto had 94 pts. through 4 finishers.
Waynesville: 8, 9, 31, 47, 54. Waynesville had 95 pts. through 4 finishers.

The 5th runners and 6th runners sorted out the final order of these 3 teams. That appears to be what psycho_dad is saying, and bucksman is echoing it. Bay was there but needed a better day from the 5th spot.

Newton's Third's point isn't lost on me in that Bay started too far behind the teams they needed to mark and race against. Bay had 196 pts. at the mile mark. They were in 5th, so you can say that they made the 1st cut by being ahead of 14 other teams. However, Woodridge had 86 pts. at mile 1, Unioto had 125, Waynesville had 153, and Carroll was 4th at 182 pts, so you might also say that they were already out of contention for 1st place and possibly 2nd as well. At mile 2, it was: Woodridge 115, Unioto 140, Waynesville 156, Bay 174. At the finish it was: Woodridge 113, Waynesville 149, Unioto 149, Bay 163. Waynesville prevailed against Unioto for 2nd place, and there was much rejoicing. Bay was making up ground all the way but spotted too much ground to the teams they knew coming in that they had to beat.

Woodridge traditionally does a good job of getting out front, monitoring the field, and adjusting when it's needed. Other teams prefer to go out more relaxed and run a more even race and keep eating up those who went out too fast. Others try to go out hard and hold on. When one such team used to do that, I called it the "5 and die" because their guys would all go out in 5:00 and die from it. They liked to get out and attempt to control the race, but their runners couldn't control their effort after going out that hard.

 

[psycho_dad]

In the scoring places at the finish,
Bay: 15, 17, 21, 41, 69. Bay had 94 pts. through 4 finishers.
Unioto: 5, 6, 34, 49, 55. Unioto had 94 pts. through 4 finishers.
Waynesville: 8, 9, 31, 47, 54. Waynesville had 95 pts. through 4 finishers.

Amazing how similar Waynesville and Unioto are. No more than 3 places between any of the top 5.

Bay was much better at 3-4 and either needed to be a little better at 1-2 and 5 or just a stronger 5. I just find it fascinating that all 3 teams were within a point through 4.

It was a good race to watch and try to figure out as it was going on. Did I miss a runner? Is there another team with similar uniforms I added in?

I didn't stay for D1, but I would have to think there are not many, if any, times when a D1 team scored 75 and did not win.

 

[Mr. Slippery]

In the scoring places at the finish,
Bay: 15, 17, 21, 41, 69. Bay had 94 pts. through 4 finishers.
Unioto: 5, 6, 34, 49, 55. Unioto had 94 pts. through 4 finishers.
Waynesville: 8, 9, 31, 47, 54. Waynesville had 95 pts. through 4 finishers.

Amazing how similar Waynesville and Unioto are. No more than 3 places between any of the top 5.

Bay was much better at 3-4 and either needed to be a little better at 1-2 and 5 or just a stronger 5. I just find it fascinating that all 3 teams were within a point through 4.

It was a good race to watch and try to figure out as it was going on. Did I miss a runner? Is there another team with similar uniforms I added in?

I didn't stay for D1, but I would have to think there are not many, if any, times when a D1 team scored 75 and did not win.

You'd be correct. Until yesterday, the lowest point total for a DI team that didn't win since going to 3 classifications/divisions was 78 by LaSalle in '01. To score 75 and not win is even more remarkable now that 20 teams are competing.

 

[Newton's Third]

Mr. Slippery made my point probably better than I can. Bay, like most of the teams is well coached and understand there is no shame in losing to Woodridge. However, since they beat them last week I would assume their goal was to win. Putting yourself in such a hole, 110 points, at the mile is not really giving yourself a viable shot at the top 2-3 places. Also, on a course with so many twists and turns fighting and weaving through so many other very competitive runners can leave you running out of gas both mentally and physically. My point was it must have been frustrating for the Bay kids and team to have never really been in the hunt. I doubt it was planned but they probably struggled to get out and positioned early, where they wanted to be. That's the experiene of a state meet and sometimes things just do not play out as planned.

 

[billcarson]

Bay's 4th runner at Boardman was injured in that race, as he ran over 2 miles in the mud with one shoe. He sat out all week, and tried yesterday, but
struggled. Their 5th runner did step up and I think was the top #4 in the race. 1 and 2 did not get out as you have mentioned which for 3rd and 4th regional finishers was surprising. It still would not have been enough as Woodridge #2 and #3 ran great. Congratulations to them. Next year will have
some new faces on both teams, especially Bay

 

[Newton's Third]

Thanks Bill. Some insight is why I questioned their early positioning. I was not trying to indicate that they would beat Woodridge, just that due to early positioning they really never had a shot. This is an example of why Woodridge is so good year in and year out. They never seem to hiccup when it counts. This is an example of great coaching and a culture of winning.

In girls D1 I mentioned that Hilliard Davidson might pull it off if Stull continued to move up. She was up to 3rd or 4th runner at regional and has tremendous potential. She was coming off injury and district was her first race. I thought she might be 1st or 2nd runner at state and that might be enough. She was HD's 7th runner. Does anyone know if she ran injured at state? Any indication of why she struggled? I ask this because I am a fan thinking she could do some really special things on the track and still think she will.

 

[Mr. Slippery]

Mr. Slippery made my point probably better than I can. Bay, like most of the teams is well coached and understand there is no shame in losing to Woodridge. However, since they beat them last week I would assume their goal was to win. Putting yourself in such a hole, 110 points, at the mile is not really giving yourself a viable shot at the top 2-3 places. Also, on a course with so many twists and turns fighting and weaving through so many other very competitive runners can leave you running out of gas both mentally and physically. My point was it must have been frustrating for the Bay kids and team to have never really been in the hunt. I doubt it was planned but they probably struggled to get out and positioned early, where they wanted to be. That's the experience of a state meet and sometimes things just do not play out as planned.

That's the product of a new course or venue. Even after running it the day before, nobody knows exactly how a new course is going to look in a race until after the fact. It's never a good sign though when you hit the mile mark or beyond, and your coach is frantically telling everyone on the team that they have to pick up 20 places. 1 or 2 guys might be able to do that, but 5 or more? If my coach is giving me that info, my first thought is "oh, crud!"

Nonetheless, what Bay accomplished this fall after getting a late start to the season was terrific. Some may not recall that Bay's school district originally cancelled fall sports before rescinding that decision a few weeks later, so they did not have a normal preseason build up. It isn't difficult for dedicated runners to log miles on their own, but not being able to practice normally for a handful of weeks is far from an advantage compared to those who could. They don't award too many regional titles each year in our sport. My school's program is proud of its 6 state meet appearances and other accomplishments, but it has never won a regional title or placed higher than 4th at state.