Over the past dozen seasons, I have found that under good conditions, the Darby course produced times right in line with galesxc's 2.5% faster than a baseline course. I have also noticed this to be very condition specific. In particular the more races run on the course the slower it becomes. Even when conditions are dry. At the district meet there are generally 14 races on the course in a day.
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Rank the district courses from fastest to slowest
- Thread starter xc1
- Start date
That's interesting. Is it because of the additional races run on it or is there a different or more dominant factor? I'm thinking temperature, for example: as the day wears on it gets warmer which also correlates with more races having been run.Over the past dozen seasons, I have found that under good conditions, the Darby course produced times right in line with galesxc's 2.5% faster than a baseline course. I have also noticed this to be very condition specific. In particular the more races run on the course the slower it becomes. Even when conditions are dry. At the district meet there are generally 14 races on the course in a day.
Increasing temperature is a likely cause in most years. But, course conditions can deteriorate measurably through the day... during the 2021 NXR, the Fr/So race ran about 4% slower than baseline; our open race ran about 5% slower and our championship race, 6.6% slower. If you were there, this probably doesn't surprise you!
From our 2021 Regional Meet Summary: "On average, Regional competitors ran 9.3% slower than at the Darby District. The Gales were better at 7.7%... Coffman was even better, helping lead to their winning margin over the Gales." [I thought Mathking would enjoy that]
At one point, Milesplit had the McGowan course rated (I think) at a -1.1% and the Watkins District course +(a big number)... the same course... but very different conditions in the database for the different days. Kinda funny, but along the the Region 3 and NXR examples, it shows the potential impact of muddy course conditions.
From our 2021 Regional Meet Summary: "On average, Regional competitors ran 9.3% slower than at the Darby District. The Gales were better at 7.7%... Coffman was even better, helping lead to their winning margin over the Gales." [I thought Mathking would enjoy that]
At one point, Milesplit had the McGowan course rated (I think) at a -1.1% and the Watkins District course +(a big number)... the same course... but very different conditions in the database for the different days. Kinda funny, but along the the Region 3 and NXR examples, it shows the potential impact of muddy course conditions.
Yes, we were at NXR last year...it was a mess by the girls' championship race!Increasing temperature is a likely cause in most years. But, course conditions can deteriorate measurably through the day... during the 2021 NXR, the Fr/So race ran about 4% slower than baseline; our open race ran about 5% slower and our championship race, 6.6% slower. If you were there, this probably doesn't surprise you!
From our 2021 Regional Meet Summary: "On average, Regional competitors ran 9.3% slower than at the Darby District. The Gales were better at 7.7%... Coffman was even better, helping lead to their winning margin over the Gales." [I thought Mathking would enjoy that]
At one point, Milesplit had the McGowan course rated (I think) at a -1.1% and the Watkins District course +(a big number)... the same course... but very different conditions in the database for the different days. Kinda funny, but along the the Region 3 and NXR examples, it shows the potential impact of muddy course conditions.
But the notion mentioned above was "even when conditions are dry". That is why I was speculating about temperature as the dominant factor. I certainly agree that course conditions on a particularly muddy day can deteriorate significantly.
Also not unusual for the wind to pick up as the day warms. I was unable to come up with a useful correlation, but we all know the wind matters.
The level of competition can make a difference...
Also, congestion, too many runners on the course...
But you wouldn't expect either of these to change predictably as the day progresses.
The level of competition can make a difference...
Also, congestion, too many runners on the course...
But you wouldn't expect either of these to change predictably as the day progresses.
Temperature is almost certainly the largest factor, but even when I account for temperature there is a persistent difference. My best guess is that the course just gets softer after so many races.Yes, we were at NXR last year...it was a mess by the girls' championship race!
But the notion mentioned above was "even when conditions are dry". That is why I was speculating about temperature as the dominant factor. I certainly agree that course conditions on a particularly muddy day can deteriorate significantly.