OSU Path to the Playoffs

The only team Ohio State can jump with a loss this weekend is USC. Shouldn’t be that hard to figure out. 12-1 is greater than 11-1 no matter what way you cut it.
 
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Those of you saying that OSU does "not deserve to get in" are just being overly emotional about the Buckeyes losing to UM. Put on your big boy pants and be logical.

- If TCU loses to KState, OSU is clearly more deserving based on their lone loss being to #2.
- If USC loses they have 2 losses, to Utah. Are they more deserving than OSU? Please.
- Alabama has 2 losses to teams not as good as UM, and they have a couple more last gasp wins against worse teams. No contest.

As a reminder, Alabama won two national championships in years where they did not win the SEC West division, but they "snuck in " to the playoff. Perhaps OSU does it this year?
Depends on the nature of the loss. TCU has the best SOS of the top 4 currently and has the #1 SOR. The committee seems to be impressed with how they've continued to win games all year. There's an argument to be had if it's TCU or OSU.

USC would be out. And Alabama will fall behind OSU, however things shake out.
 
Both Georgia and Michigan have better wins than Ohio State. Neither of them are falling out of the top 4 regardless if they lose.
Think about what you are saying. "Ohio State shouldn't be in because they have a loss. Their loss was to Michigan - arguably one of the best teams in the country."
"Michigan should be in even though they just lost - to Purdue. Well is Purdue any good? Well, Purdue lost to Penn St., Syracuse, Wisconsin, and Iowa. Oh, and they barely beat Florida Atlantic, Maryland, and Nebraska." IMO, that would be a HORRIFIC loss.

Tennessee has better wins than Alabama, including a win against Alabama, and they find themselves behind Bama, so I don't think you can use that logic when it comes to the committee. I don't think Bama has even beaten a Top 20 team.

Ultimately, if they are the 4 best teams, they need to win this weekend or there will be doubt. I don't think there has been a team all year that didn't slide out of the top 4 when they lost. We shall see what happens, but I don't think any team in the top 4 is safe unless they win.
 
Think about what you are saying. "Ohio State shouldn't be in because they have a loss. Their loss was to Michigan - arguably one of the best teams in the country."
"Michigan should be in even though they just lost - to Purdue. Well is Purdue any good? Well, Purdue lost to Penn St., Syracuse, Wisconsin, and Iowa. Oh, and they barely beat Florida Atlantic, Maryland, and Nebraska." IMO, that would be a HORRIFIC loss.

Tennessee has better wins than Alabama, including a win against Alabama, and they find themselves behind Bama, so I don't think you can use that logic when it comes to the committee. I don't think Bama has even beaten a Top 20 team.

Ultimately, if they are the 4 best teams, they need to win this weekend or there will be doubt. I don't think there has been a team all year that didn't slide out of the top 4 when they lost. We shall see what happens, but I don't think any team in the top 4 is safe unless they win.
The one piece of information you're missing there is that Michigan beat Ohio State in Columbus. If the discussion comes down to OSU or Michigan, the head-to-head from the week prior will rule the day. That's why Michigan is a lock. I'd have felt the same way about Ohio State had they beat Michigan.

You're right, Tennessee did beat Alabama, but they did so with Hooker at QB. He's out, they're not the same team, which is why they find themselves behind Alabama.

You're right, every time a top 4 team has lost, they've fallen out of the top 4. The one difference here is that teams #5, #6 and #7 won't be playing this week alongside #1, #2, #3 and #4.

You keep omitting major pieces of information that directly refutes the points you're trying to make.
 
The one piece of information you're missing there is that Michigan beat Ohio State in Columbus. If the discussion comes down to OSU or Michigan, the head-to-head from the week prior will rule the day. That's why Michigan is a lock. I'd have felt the same way about Ohio State had they beat Michigan.

You're right, Tennessee did beat Alabama, but they did so with Hooker at QB. He's out, they're not the same team, which is why they find themselves behind Alabama.

You're right, every time a top 4 team has lost, they've fallen out of the top 4. The one difference here is that teams #5, #6 and #7 won't be playing this week alongside #1, #2, #3 and #4.

You keep omitting major pieces of information that directly refutes the points you're trying to make.
We will see. I'm not guessing based on what should happen, rather, based on what will happen. I think the simplest way to do it is take the records and compare how good the wins were and how bad the losses were. I think a bad loss would be assessed just as much, if not more, than a good win. If any of these top 4 lose, those are BAD losses. The fact that UM and UGA are favored to win by 17+ points...that's a big upset if they were to lose. The fact that TCU and USC are only favored by 2.5 each, over 3 loss teams, tells you they aren't that strong. Will make for an interesting discussion and fun to watch either way. I should note, I'm a Buckeye fan...I don't think they would fare well if they make it in. The committee, and people that count money, should be factored in as well. If a 2 loses to a 3 and falls 3 spots, how far does/should a 1 fall vs 14? 2 vs unranked? 3 vs 10? 4 vs 11?
 
ESPIN is owned by Disney, Disney shareholders care about one thing and one thing only profits. The committee is hoping I would say praying that TCU loses. Espn would love to have a FF 4 of TTUN, UGA, OSU and USC. If both USC and TCU somehow lost this week, OSU and Bammy would be their replacements. TTUN and UGA are in regardless of winning or losing this Sat.
Bama isn't going in , if both TCU and USC lose... TCU w
Georgia and Michigan are in regardless of this coming Saturday’s results. TCU might be, too. USC should be in over Ohio State regardless of this Friday night, but I won’t hold my breath that the committee would do the right thing and keep USC in if it came down to that.

It’s true, it’s true. Trust me …
if USC gets beat on Friday... Tosu is in


let it be said...... let it be done!!
 
We will see. I'm not guessing based on what should happen, rather, based on what will happen. I think the simplest way to do it is take the records and compare how good the wins were and how bad the losses were. I think a bad loss would be assessed just as much, if not more, than a good win.
The only should in the equation is TCU. Georgia and Michigan WILL be in. TCU SHOULD be in. And the final spot goes to USC or OSU.

The committee through the years has been way more impressed with good wins than bad losses. See Clemson a couple of times and Ohio State a couple of times. Both getting in when losing to mediocre conference games on the road.
 
If any of these top 4 lose, those are BAD losses. The fact that UM and UGA are favored to win by 17+ points...that's a big upset if they were to lose. The fact that TCU and USC are only favored by 2.5 each, over 3 loss teams, tells you they aren't that strong. Will make for an interesting discussion and fun to watch either way. I should note, I'm a Buckeye fan...I don't think they would fare well if they make it in. The committee, and people that count money, should be factored in as well.
Huh? Georgia is playing #14 LSU. TCU is playing #10 Kansas State. And USC is playing #9 Utah. How are any of those BAD losses?

Michigan is playing unranked Purdue. Sure that would be a BAD loss. But Michigan also has two top 10 wins over Penn State and Ohio State, which would outweigh their lone BAD loss.
 
If a 2 loses to a 3 and falls 3 spots, how far does/should a 1 fall vs 14? 2 vs unranked? 3 vs 10? 4 vs 11
It doesn't matter how far Ohio State fell after losing to Michigan. That has zero bearing on the games this weekend. There isn't an exact number of spots one must fall when/if they lose. You know that, so not sure why you keep trying to use that as the basis for how far a team should fall.

If Georgia or Michigan lose, they will drop at most one spot pending who else loses behind them. If TCU loses, it will depend on if USC also loses or not. Period.
 
It doesn't matter how far Ohio State fell after losing to Michigan. That has zero bearing on the games this weekend. There isn't an exact number of spots one must fall when/if they lose. You know that, so not sure why you keep trying to use that as the basis for how far a team should fall.

If Georgia or Michigan lose, they will drop at most one spot pending who else loses behind them. If TCU loses, it will depend on if USC also loses or not. Period.
I hope the top four don’t all lose! That would certainly cause problems for my statement that only conference champions should go, lol. Have we ever had a situation where one team in each of these conference championships was this good (1 loss total) and their opponents were so bad (a combined 13 losses)?
Georgia and tsun need to stay in no matter what, even with an ugly loss. Either TCU or USC losing opens the door for someone, especially USC losing.
 
Huh? Georgia is playing #14 LSU. TCU is playing #10 Kansas State. And USC is playing #9 Utah. How are any of those BAD losses?

Michigan is playing unranked Purdue. Sure that would be a BAD loss. But Michigan also has two top 10 wins over Penn State and Ohio State, which would outweigh their lone BAD loss.
Just my opinion, obviously, but when you're undefeated and favored by over 17, and you lose, that's a bad loss. Not many would debate that. Would be a big upset.
 
It doesn't matter how far Ohio State fell after losing to Michigan. That has zero bearing on the games this weekend. There isn't an exact number of spots one must fall when/if they lose. You know that, so not sure why you keep trying to use that as the basis for how far a team should fall.

If Georgia or Michigan lose, they will drop at most one spot pending who else loses behind them. If TCU loses, it will depend on if USC also loses or not. Period.
I'm not just making up how it goes...it's literally how it's gone. The "smallest" drop of a top team losing this year is when #1 Tennessee lost to #3 Georgia and they literally flipped spots. #2 lost to #3 and fell to 5. #3 Alabama lost to #6 Tennessee and fell to 6. #4 Clemson lost to an unranked Notre Dame and dropped to 10. All I'm saying is there is precedent and it matters what rank the lower team is if you lose to them. Rarely is there no change with a loss. In fact, I couldn't find a time that happened.
 
Not a fan of TTUN or Georgia but I think they’re both safe regardless. On the other hand, I feel strongly that tOSU would jump TCU or USC if one (or both) of those 2 loses this weekend.
I’m a big Utah & K State fan this weekend so I can torture myself watching Georgia thump my Buckeyes!
 
I'm not just making up how it goes...it's literally how it's gone. The "smallest" drop of a top team losing this year is when #1 Tennessee lost to #3 Georgia and they literally flipped spots. #2 lost to #3 and fell to 5. #3 Alabama lost to #6 Tennessee and fell to 6. #4 Clemson lost to an unranked Notre Dame and dropped to 10. All I'm saying is there is precedent and it matters what rank the lower team is if you lose to them. Rarely is there no change with a loss. In fact, I couldn't find a time that happened.
Well actually #1 Tennessee lost to #3 Georgia, then fell 4 spots from 1 to 5.
But then #2 Ohio State lost to #3 Michigan and fell only 3 spots? So is losing to #3 worth 3 spots or 4?

Later, #5 Tennessee lost to unranked South Carolina. They fell 5 spots to #10.
The following week #8 Clemson, lost to unranked South Carolina and fell 1 spot to #9.

There is no precedent for the minimum number of spots a team will drop with a loss. The big difference this week, compared to previous weeks in the season is that teams ranked #5-8 aren't playing this weekend.

Georgia, Michigan and TCU are all 12-0, that's why many believe that they're all safe. If any of them lose, they will be 12-1, which is still better than Ohio State at 11-1. It'll come down to USC or OSU for the 4th spot. USC will either be 12-1 with a Pac 12 title or 11-2 with two losses to Utah. Ohio State will still be 11-1 regardless.
 
Just my opinion, obviously, but when you're undefeated and favored by over 17, and you lose, that's a bad loss. Not many would debate that. Would be a big upset.
Big upset is not equivalent to bad loss.

Obviously a large part of that 17 point line is the strength of Georgia baked into it.

Meanwhile, if you put TCU up against LSU, maybe it’s only an 8 or 9 point line.

So, let’s say both UGA and TCU lose to LSU at those lines. You can’t say, “That’s a bad loss for Georgia, but a not-so-bad loss for TCU.” It’s the same loss.

It’s true, it’s true. Trust me …
 
Not a fan of TTUN or Georgia but I think they’re both safe regardless. On the other hand, I feel strongly that tOSU would jump TCU or USC if one (or both) of those 2 loses this weekend.
I’m a big Utah & K State fan this weekend so I can torture myself watching Georgia thump my Buckeyes!
100% agree with unbolded.

I’m really OK either way. The Buckeyes will need to play a big game against a quality opponent. If that’s in the CFP, Rose, or Orange they need to coach and play better than they did against tsun. I’m not one to hope they don’t go so they don’t get beat. I hope that the staff improves their preparation and play calling. Big game coaching experience only comes a few times a year. Day needs more experience.
 
Let’s be honest: Even if USC or TCU were to lose a close game, it would be absolute robbery for Ohio State to end up with a playoff spot. Nobody who watched Ohio State in November or in any of their only three big games could possibly come to the conclusion that Ohio State is a playoff team.

It’s true, it’s true. Trust me …
 
Let’s be honest: Even if USC or TCU were to lose a close game, it would be absolute robbery for Ohio State to end up with a playoff spot. Nobody who watched Ohio State in November or in any of their only three big games could possibly come to the conclusion that Ohio State is a playoff team.

It’s true, it’s true. Trust me …
Except the committee 😂
 
Juzt like the embarrasment to Kent and UK? As I have said, beyond getting in playoff, I want to see thus team and coaches tested again this year to see what happens after last week
 
Let’s be honest: Even if USC or TCU were to lose a close game, it would be absolute robbery for Ohio State to end up with a playoff spot. Nobody who watched Ohio State in November or in any of their only three big games could possibly come to the conclusion that Ohio State is a playoff team.

It’s true, it’s true. Trust me …
It is what it is.. USC is losing right now.. so who else you going to put in at #4? BAMA?
Yea the Bucks are a playoff team..
Will the Bucks get rolled by Georgia? Probably.. You think Georgia wont roll TCU or USC?
 
Juzt like the embarrasment to Kent and UK? As I have said, beyond getting in playoff, I want to see thus team and coaches tested again this year to see what happens after last week
No, you’ve said OSU doesn’t belong in the playoff.

It’s true, it’s true. Trust me …
 
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