cruiser_96
Well-known member
Thx, YF33.
Ohsaa?
- Thread starter Major
- Start date
spladlemaster
Member
Bottom line, Governor DeWine will have the final say regarding when public schools resume normal activities. This includes both the educational and athletic aspects. He shut them down and he will decide on how and when they reopen.
Can you source that.
The math behind that statement is much more complicated than simple subtraction also.
Boro,
I'd probably start here:
That is math heavy...
So the next two are a little easier to understand
www.discovermagazine.com
www.fiercebiotech.com
Anyone who honestly thinks the decisions we have made have been backed by statistical and research based data needs to take the time out of their day and read the two articles I posted earlier.
I'd probably start here:
That is math heavy...
So the next two are a little easier to understand
COVID-19 Antibody Testing: Tougher Than True/False
Antibodies should indicate if someone has had an infection in the past. But the promise of “immunity testing” is plagued by uncertainty about how the immune system responds to the coronavirus, as well as concerns about the tests’ accuracy.
www.discovermagazine.com
FDA publishes first validation results of 12 COVID-19 antibody tests
The FDA published results from the first batch of COVID-19 antibody diagnostics to have their accuracy independently evaluated by federal laboratories—starting with the 12 blood tests the | The FDA published results from the first batch of COVID-19 antibody diagnostics to have their accuracy...
Anyone who honestly thinks the decisions we have made have been backed by statistical and research based data needs to take the time out of their day and read the two articles I posted earlier.
One day maybe, one day maybe not. The WHO said asymptomatic people dont transit. People under the age of 50 have a 99.9 percent survival rate IF they get it. The numbers do not support the theories. And yes, they are theories. The facts are WAY WAY less people have died from this. 164 kids died from flu last year. ZERO died from covid. Those are facts. Take away nursing homes and prisons and 468 people died from corona
Boro Fan
Well-known member
The WHO just said last week that asymptomatic people can transmit the disease, but it is rare.
The WHO clarified their statement:
'We don’t actually have that answer yet': WHO clarifies comments on asymptomatic spread of Covid-19
After strong pushback from public health experts, a top WHO official clarified scientists don’t know yet how often asymptomatic Covid-19 patients are spreading the disease to others.
www.statnews.com
From the article:
To some, it came across as if the WHO was suggesting that people without symptoms weren’t driving spread. Some studies, however, have estimated that people without symptoms (whether truly asymptomatic or presymptomatic) could be responsible for up to half of the spread, which is why the virus has been so difficult to contain. Isolating people who are sick, for example, does not prevent the possibility they already passed the virus on to others. Some modeling studies have assumed quite widespread asymptomatic transmission.
scbuckeye99
Well-known member
Both the percent positive and death rates have been ever climbing in South Carolina since Memorial Day weekend. Myrtle Beach was an absolute Show with bodies everywhere. May 27th (Wednesday after Memorial Day Weekend) saw a nice low but ever since then the lowest has been double that with the high 5x the low.
People down here are convinced we're going to have school and fall sports. We closed back in March because ONE person died from COVID-19. DHEC (Department of Health and Environmental Control) is now predicting at least 4 deaths per day from now until October. And that's a best case scenario. How are we going to return to school with four deaths a day when they closed us for one in a week?
To put it in perspective. Back in April when people were abiding by the rules of quarantine and social distancing DHEC was predicting we'd be out of the woods by June 1st. Then people (and the Governor mind you) decided "nah, we're good, let's roll the dice" and well let it be said you reap what you sow folks.
People down here are convinced we're going to have school and fall sports. We closed back in March because ONE person died from COVID-19. DHEC (Department of Health and Environmental Control) is now predicting at least 4 deaths per day from now until October. And that's a best case scenario. How are we going to return to school with four deaths a day when they closed us for one in a week?
To put it in perspective. Back in April when people were abiding by the rules of quarantine and social distancing DHEC was predicting we'd be out of the woods by June 1st. Then people (and the Governor mind you) decided "nah, we're good, let's roll the dice" and well let it be said you reap what you sow folks.
My recommendation for anyone going off of predictions and such is to continue to revisit said predictions and hold the modelers accountable for being wrong.
The other important aspect and it may seem insensitive is it acknowledge deaths happen every day. If you're seriously interested in the numbers, compare deaths per 100,000 people. That will make everything closer to an apples to apples situation.
Statistics are easy to manipulate because most people don't understand or take the time to understand the math.
The other important Statistics to understand is number of tests. In any trendline there should be a another line to show number of tests.
For example in Ohio we are supposed to be testing 3 times as many people per day as we did a month ago. Of course the number of positive tests will rise.
I personally believe nursing home and prison cases and deaths should be considered their own subset to show the actual risks to our general population.
The other important aspect and it may seem insensitive is it acknowledge deaths happen every day. If you're seriously interested in the numbers, compare deaths per 100,000 people. That will make everything closer to an apples to apples situation.
Statistics are easy to manipulate because most people don't understand or take the time to understand the math.
The other important Statistics to understand is number of tests. In any trendline there should be a another line to show number of tests.
For example in Ohio we are supposed to be testing 3 times as many people per day as we did a month ago. Of course the number of positive tests will rise.
I personally believe nursing home and prison cases and deaths should be considered their own subset to show the actual risks to our general population.
The biggest numbers we should be looking at are hospitalizations per day. That is a much better indicator if things will take a turn for the worse.
How do you "hold the modelers accountable for being wrong?" You understand that they will be wrong 100% of the time, correct?
How do you "hold the modelers accountable for being wrong?" You understand that they will be wrong 100% of the time, correct?
I'd like to pick my NCAA Tourney bracket after it's over, I'm sure I'd do much better...
from March 13th, seems to have held up well...
Between 160 million and 214 million people in the United States could be infected over the course of the epidemic, according to a projection that encompasses the range of the four scenarios. That could last months or even over a year, with infections concentrated in shorter periods, staggered across time in different communities, experts said. As many as 200,000 to 1.7 million people could die.
--
“When people change their behavior," said Lauren Gardner, an associate professor at the Johns Hopkins Whiting School of Engineering who models epidemics, “those model parameters are no longer applicable,” so short-term forecasts are likely to be more accurate. “There is a lot of room for improvement if we act appropriately.”
To now:
A coronavirus model once used by the White House now projects more than 200,000 Americans could die of COVID-19 by October 1. The prediction went up by more than 30,000 since last week.
I'd take the over on the 200K, since we've decided the epidemic is bullsh!t.
Anyway, here's a litany of bad things that can happen from corona virus short of dying:
The emerging long-term complications of Covid-19, explained
"It is a true roller coaster of symptoms and severities, with each new day offering many unknowns."
www.vox.com
Many of these studies are a very small sample size, but show how much we don't know.
hospitalizations per day is not a good standard to use. Hospitals are paid for admitting people for elective surgeries. They can not admit them when the covid numbers are at a certain point. How did the hospitals deal with this? They lowered the number of covid patients to a point that they could start the elective surgeries back up. Then IMMEDIATELY the covid numbers went back where they were. It is all a total manipulation of numbers to maximize the all mighty dollar. If you dont think its about money, they you need to do some more research.
here is a very interesting video. it is 18 minutes long but worth every second.
They should be held to a certain threshold of error and if not it should he noted when they are predicting data in the future. When they aren't in that threshold the agency using that prediction should also have to report how much of a discrepancy was and what they think attributed to it.
In March, ODH told Ohioans that we were going to experience a plague of biblical proportions with 10,000 Ohioans being infected daily by mid-April. Ohio hospitals were going to overrun with COVID patients. Businesses were ordered closed, schools were closed, Ohioans were ordered to stay at home.
Massive unemployment followed.
By April 9, it became clear that fortunately, the impact of COVID, especially on Ohioans under the age of 50, was nowhere near the dire model predictions.
Oh look, people did something to prevent the terrible things from happening, and the terrible things didn't happen! What a bunch of idiots!!
I never imagined I was going to live through the whole Y2K thing again.
The general public has a right to know that only 448 Ohioans not in nursing homes have died from COVID-19, and that includes at least 66 prison inmates. That is an average of 80 per month since January, or about 3 deaths per day. To put this into perspective, before COVID-19, Ohio averaged 320 deaths per day over the last 10 years.
I was unaware all other forms of death in Ohio had ceased. So that's good news.
I'm not sure what Judge Grendell is complaining about for data being "hidden", this from March:
State Releases More Data on COVID-19 Hospitalizations, Cases Exceed 500
Gov. Mike DeWine and Ohio's top health official had a mix of good and bad news at Tuesday's press conference.Ohio has confirmed 564 COVID-19 cases in the…
www.wksu.org
Currently, there are 145 hospitalizations. Acton gave the following statistics:
- 25 of them are from long-term care facilities
- 16% are health care workers
- 11% (62 people) are in the Intensive Care Unit
Overview
If your job was to predict the tournament and make decisions about the health and economy for millions of people. Id hope someone would check your work after the fact before asking you again.I'd like to pick my NCAA Tourney bracket after it's over, I'm sure I'd do much better...
from March 13th, seems to have held up well...
Between 160 million and 214 million people in the United States could be infected over the course of the epidemic, according to a projection that encompasses the range of the four scenarios. That could last months or even over a year, with infections concentrated in shorter periods, staggered across time in different communities, experts said. As many as 200,000 to 1.7 million people could die.
--
“When people change their behavior," said Lauren Gardner, an associate professor at the Johns Hopkins Whiting School of Engineering who models epidemics, “those model parameters are no longer applicable,” so short-term forecasts are likely to be more accurate. “There is a lot of room for improvement if we act appropriately.”
To now:
A coronavirus model once used by the White House now projects more than 200,000 Americans could die of COVID-19 by October 1. The prediction went up by more than 30,000 since last week.
I'd take the over on the 200K, since we've decided the epidemic is bullsh!t.
Anyway, here's a litany of bad things that can happen from corona virus short of dying:
The emerging long-term complications of Covid-19, explained
"It is a true roller coaster of symptoms and severities, with each new day offering many unknowns."
Many of these studies are a very small sample size, but show how much we don't know.
There is a huge difference between 200k and 1.6 million.
There's also the fact that people die every day or get hospitalizations from cancer, heart disease, diabetes, the regular flu, other viruses, infections, etc.
Once again I am not arguing that coronavirus is not serious. It is and can be detrimental to those at risk. I was personally not against mitigation efforts in the beginning of this pandemic even though I knew the statistics were being presented unfairly and without merit. Ppe was in short supply and some of our hospitals are over run during regular flu season.
Should everyone's lives be put on hold seasonly? I don't believe social distancing has as much impact as population density.
I'm simply giving you access to data and trying to show that baseline predictions have been incredibly slanted towards worst case scenario.
Once again... let's not pretend the models have been successful.
Forecasting for COVID-19 has failed - International Institute of Forecasters
COVID-19 is a major acute crisis with unpredictable consequences. Many scientists have struggled to make forecasts about its impact [1]. However, despite involving many excellent modelers, best intentions, and highly sophisticated tools, forecasting efforts have largely failed.
forecasters.org
These are experts in the field.
I strongly urge anyone who looks into this to go beyond just articles and follow the research on all sides. Start with peer reviewes journals and find experts who did not participate in the study to comment also. purposefully look for counter arguments because I'm not saying I'm correct. New research could change my position tomorrow
the ppe need is a load of crap too. The doctors know it. My son took a line drive off his face sunday at practice. We went to the ER and then were rushed to childrens. We were only allowed one parent inside. I let the wife go in and was freaking out. Once he was admitted we both were allowed in. Once inside, the idea of masking was smirked at. My son was tested for covid. Me and the wife asked if we should be and they just said naw, its no big deal.
I enjoy wrestling
Well-known member
DOD study raises tantalizing question: does flu shot increase vulnerability to coronaviruses?
Phenomenon known as virus interference flagged in DOD study just before COVID-19 burst.
justthenews.com
I had trouble finding the original DOD report mentioned in the above link. Interesting read, have at it. I printed 100 copies of the DOD report a few weeks ago. I figured it would get hard to find.
Made a few calls yesterday and kids are training. Have a feeling the Schott kids are training
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From your own article you just posted:
"But in recent weeks or maybe for the next month or two, what we've been seeing is an increase in the number of kids who are testing positive for the coronavirus. Initially, some of that certainly could come down to increased testing. As we've been working with the state and other institutions to increase our testing, of course we've captured more kids because we were testing more kids"
Kids were so rarely tested prior to this.
There have been 111 hospitalizations of with 0 total deaths in ohio for ages 0-19
"But in recent weeks or maybe for the next month or two, what we've been seeing is an increase in the number of kids who are testing positive for the coronavirus. Initially, some of that certainly could come down to increased testing. As we've been working with the state and other institutions to increase our testing, of course we've captured more kids because we were testing more kids"
Kids were so rarely tested prior to this.
There have been 111 hospitalizations of with 0 total deaths in ohio for ages 0-19
We are testing 3 times as many people if not more. I would not be surprised if testing in children rose 5 times.
0 deaths.
111 total hospitalizations.
Coronavirus is serious enough on its own. It doesn't need extra fear mongering.
Better yet let's let the fear mongering continue. Schools have already seen their budgets destroyed from the economic impact of Coronavirus, lets add in more unfunded mandates.
0 deaths.
111 total hospitalizations.
Coronavirus is serious enough on its own. It doesn't need extra fear mongering.
Better yet let's let the fear mongering continue. Schools have already seen their budgets destroyed from the economic impact of Coronavirus, lets add in more unfunded mandates.
Boro Fan
Well-known member
Regardless of more testing or not, the percentage is rising, not just the total of positive tests.
Before: 10-20 out of every 1000 children tested positive
Now: 50-60 out of every 1000 children are testing positive
That’s great news. Now we’re developing herd immunity.
I enjoy wrestling
Well-known member
Do you like Holiday Inns?
You guys don't get it, they are having a hard time figuring out how to have school in the fall and bus kids to school ,sports means very little , . .A business that grosses billions Nba and Mlb cant figure out how to keep people safe and conduct business . The chances of sports in Ohio is slim without a vaccine or treatment . The rate of infection in kids means zero its the Ro value that means everything . In April we were running 4.56 now we are under 1 which is great .