Northeast Regional predictions

C

cvctrackfan

Well-known member
I know I am now an interloper until track and field season. But Here goes my picks for the State Meet qualifiers.

Boy’s D1

1. St. Ignatius #7 The wildcats strength up front with the Best 1-2 punch Of Kelly and Uhran. (Sorry Federal League those times get an asterisk) will have even more value in a regional field. And their three thru seven are just good enough to advance them to Obetz .

2. Kenston #4 has had an outstanding season. With a big single digit runner in Princic they really have to shore up their 4 and 5 runners to capture the crown.

3. Hudson #11 they have run undercover all season, but the Explorers but in a good effort at Glen Oak. They also had a little problem at their #5 runner. But besides that they match up well against the field.

4. Mentor #8 The Cardinals should have an easy time qualifying Saturday. With their pack they just have stay in the top quarter of the field and keep it close.

5. Hoover #15 has put up some fast times But they had difficulties with Hudson. They could finish between 5th and 8th.

6. Jackson They are similar to Mentor. But their #1 is a little faster and their pack is not as strong.

7. Louisville #10 a few weeks ago I would have placed them as far up as 3rd. For some reason they dropped off a bit. But they did finish second at Boardman.

8. Medina, Walsh Jesuit or University School only because I got a feeling.
 
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Girls’s D1

1. Kenston #5 Took on a field containing 5 state ranked teams and made them cry uncle. Need I say more.
2. Mentor #9 like I said before I picked them to be the best team in the region in the preseason. With a low number in Denison they make it closer this weekend.

3. Shaker Heights #10 The Raiders should rebound from a flat district race.

4. Hudson #18 just because they are Hudson and Inwould expect nothing less.

5. Jackson #11 the have looked strong wary on. I have always said any year the Polar Bears have at least One strong runner in the front they will be a problem.

6. Chardon #16 my upset special. I like their coaching staff.

7. St Joseph Academy #20 they have taken on some good teams and have not blinked.

8. Green #21 see #7. This is their year
 
D3 Girls

1. Gilmour #6 I wanted to pick them last weekend but I didn’t want to seem like a homer. At Madison they put four runners in before Maplewood’s number two. With 6 runners returning and last years state meet number 1 in a boot this season the future looks bright.

2. Maplewood #5 what a season they have had, Now is the time to pick it and bring it on home. They also return their entire squad next year. They are led by regional favorite freshman Caleigh Richards.

3. Mineral Ridge #29 has closed the gap on Maplewood. Their 4 and 5 runners will have to run lights out in order to finish in the top two.

4A, Dalton #17 had a real tough time with Smithville Saturday. Their fifth runner was the difference maker.

4B Smithville in order to advance the Smittys are going have to hang onto Dalton runner to runner.
 
D2 Girl’s

1. SVSM #4 I don’t believe any other D2 in the area has come with 20 points of them.

2. Woodridge #5 SVSM and Woodridge have been waging this war for close to 20 years.

3. Hathaway Brown IMO this is HB’s best team ever.

4. Chagrin Falls #14 is about coaching and hard work.

5. Poland Seminary #17I have to pay attention to this team more. Since my son-law was a three sport athlete there.

6. Cloverleaf they are a little more of a complete team then my daughters Alma Mater

7. Hawken yes they have problems in the rear but they are only scoring four. And Metz is getting healthier. If not then Salem or Talmadge
 
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D3 Boys

1. East Canton #2 has much as things change, sometimes they stay the same. At Spartan CCC had the hornets number. Since then EC 3 and 4 runners have risen to the top. Making the entire team much better.

2. Canton Central Catholic #3 with Scheatzle via with Rupe for the regional championship. This is the Crusaders best squad in a long time.

3. Maplewood #16 seems to be peaking at just the right time. They beat crosstown rival McDonald at the Madison District.

4. McDonald #11 led by yet another Rupe and a lot of other recognizable last names I don’t remember the last time they didn’t make it to the big dance.

5. The other three contenders Elyria Catholic, Dalton and South Range all have a few holes to fill in their lineups .
 
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D2 Boys

1. Woodridge #1 enough has been said about this crew. They are scoring 3, it’s theirs to lose etc etc etc

2A Bay #4 every year Coach Babson puts out a great product.

2B. Marlington #5 I could easily put them at the number two spot

4. NDCL #16 this group has rebuilt very well. I believe they are under a new head coach.

5. Fairview Park I know how hard their coaching staff works getting them ready And Cloverleaf

others SVSM, West G. Tallmadge
 
Girls D2:
SVSM
Woodridge
Hathaway Brown
Chagrin Falls
Hawken
Cloverleaf, Revere, or Poland
Boys D2:
Woodridge
Bay
NDCL
Marlington
West Geauga
Chagrin Falls, Lake Catholic, or Edgewood
 
Weather looks good for Saturday, but is it going to start off a muddy mess? 2006?

It's funny. I haven't spent too much time looking at what teams can do what. I just keep hoping that all the kids are able to compete and that we can get through next week. We have run a good race and we just need to get to the finish line. Nothing stupid.

Woodridge boys have competed at the state meet every year since 2004. Girls since 2005. Boys are going for a record breaking number of state championships. I don't want to see Revere not get the chance to start a streak like that because of a virus. I don't want some some kid that this is the one and only time they get to compete at the Regional level not get that chance. Great job by everyone that has made this season happen.
 
It has been a weird season. When we began meeting in early July since coaching contact restrictions were lifted, we weren’t sure if we would ever toe the line. The kids understood that. Unfortunately, a significant handful of them took that as a reason not to train in the summer, and they got out of the season what they put into.

But enough of a core group, for us, built their miles, did their core workouts, and did the right things vis a vis the pandemic and here we are, even after getting embarrassed a few times with our inconsistent race performances in September and early October. I’m super proud of them, and they know (again) that they’re as “dangerous” as they want to be.
 
Is Boardman using shoe chips or chips in the bibs? How is it still legal to use shoe chips when the torso determines the placing?? Does mud cause the chips to not be read??
 
gatornation said:
How is it still legal to use shoe chips when the torso determines the placing??
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8-3-4
I'm not going to spell it all out here, but the idea is that the chip is just used to identify the runners. The video still needs to be reviewed to make sure the order is correct.
 
gatornation said:
Is Boardman using shoe chips or chips in the bibs? How is it still legal to use shoe chips when the torso determines the placing?? Does mud cause the chips to not be read??
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Coach packet at Boardman says 1 chip for each shoe.
But (as tmk says below) the body of the email says disposable chip on bib.
 
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Boardman's e-mail from this afternoon said bibs...

"Chips & Bibs
There will be no chip return. Chips are embedded in the bibs and they are disposable. Please disregard any reference to chips in the COVID Protocols."
 
DIII
Boys
1. Canton Central Catholic - This race has been circled on their calendar ever since coming up a few points short of making state last year at this meet. Their normal #5 runner will return to the lineup. It's unknown how he will perform, but he will provide a shot in the arm to his teammates. CVC is correct. This is Canton CC's best team since 2002 when they finished 4th at state in DII. 1 or 2 of these guys may have been alive at that time.

2. East Canton - The condition of Canton CC's #5 runner notwithstanding, the Hornets have made up a lot of ground on Canton CC since the beginning of the season. A strong showing from their frontrunners could earn them the regional title. They have terrific depth and only 1 senior in their top 8 or 9 runners, so watch out for them next year, too.

I believe those are the 2 best teams in this field.

3. McDonald - I don't know that any team ever runs better than McDonald on a muddy Boardman course. A low-scoring Rupe should have extra value in this field.

4. South Range - Gut feeling here. They came out of nowhere to take 4th here last year. I have no idea where their #1 runner of last week came from. Their previous #1 was sidelined last week but should be back for this meet. That would give South Range 2 strong runners up front. Can the pack behind them do enough to nail down the 4th spot?

5. Maplewood - They were so close last year, and I'm sure they haven't forgotten about it. They could easily finish as high as 3rd, but I'm going with my gut here.

I see the 3 teams listed above vying for the final 2 spots to state. Behind them, Elyria Catholic appears to be the best of the rest followed by Dalton and Badger. I expect muddy conditions, and that can cause a lot of things to happen.

Girls

1. Gilmour Academy - The bottom line is they should advance.

2. Maplewood - Could easily beat Gilmour by a small margin, but the bottom line is they should advance.

Those are clearly the 2 best teams in the field.

3. Mineral Ridge - They have far less holes than the teams behind them but probably not enough to challenge for a trophy or team medals. Bottom line is they should advance.

4. McDonald - They've played the shell game all season and are clearly not as strong as previous McDonald teams, but the other teams have to show me that they can beat McDonald when a state berth is on the line.

5. Dalton - The Bulldog boys showed how it's done last year. The girls could certainly follow suit here. The 1st state berth is always the hardest. Truthfully, I enjoy it when a new team breaks through. The perennial powers in the region are to be admired for the programs they've built, but variety is the spice of life.

6. Smithville - The Lady Smithies got it done last fall, so they know what it takes. However, they must find more speed up front to make a return trip. It's not a huge field, so a team can't give up too many points up front because there won't be enough places to make up all of those points at the #5 spot.

I see the 3 teams listed above vying for that 4th spot. Dalton and Smithville might have a small advantage of having raced in mud last week. However, I'm willing to bet McDonald has logged some time on Boardman's course this week. Now, 1 of the teams from GlenOak could break into the top 6, but I don't know if they'll climb all the way into the top 4.
 
A little.
Mr. Slippery said:
DIII
Boys
1. Canton Central Catholic - This race has been circled on their calendar ever since coming up a few points short of making state last year at this meet. Their normal #5 runner will return to the lineup. It's unknown how he will perform, but he will provide a shot in the arm to his teammates. CVC is correct. This is Canton CC's best team since 2002 when they finished 4th at state in DII. 1 or 2 of these guys may have been alive at that time.

2. East Canton - The condition of Canton CC's #5 runner notwithstanding, the Hornets have made up a lot of ground on Canton CC since the beginning of the season. A strong showing from their frontrunners could earn them the regional title. They have terrific depth and only 1 senior in their top 8 or 9 runners, so watch out for them next year, too.

I believe those are the 2 best teams in this field.
Mr. Slippery a little hint for you regarding D3 girls. I hear Gilmour’s top fin
3. McDonald - I don't know that any team ever runs better than McDonald on a muddy Boardman course. A low-scoring Rupe should have extra value in this field.

4. South Range - Gut feeling here. They came out of nowhere to take 4th here last year. I have no idea where their #1 runner of last week came from. Their previous #1 was sidelined last week but should be back for this meet. That would give South Range 2 strong runners up front. Can the pack behind them do enough to nail down the 4th spot?

5. Maplewood - They were so close last year, and I'm sure they haven't forgotten about it. They could easily finish as high as 3rd, but I'm going with my gut here.

I see the 3 teams listed above vying for the final 2 spots to state. Behind them, Elyria Catholic appears to be the best of the rest followed by Dalton and Badger. I expect muddy conditions, and that can cause a lot of things to happen.

Girls

1. Gilmour Academy - The bottom line is they should advance.

2. Maplewood - Could easily beat Gilmour by a small margin, but the bottom line is they should advance.

Those are clearly the 2 best teams in the field.

3. Mineral Ridge - They have far less holes than the teams behind them but probably not enough to challenge for a trophy or team medals. Bottom line is they should advance.

4. McDonald - They've played the shell game all season and are clearly not as strong as previous McDonald teams, but the other teams have to show me that they can beat McDonald when a state berth is on the line.

5. Dalton - The Bulldog boys showed how it's done last year. The girls could certainly follow suit here. The 1st state berth is always the hardest. Truthfully, I enjoy it when a new team breaks through. The perennial powers in the region are to be admired for the programs they've built, but variety is the spice of life.

6. Smithville - The Lady Smithies got it done last fall, so they know what it takes. However, they must find more speed up front to make a return trip. It's not a huge field, so a team can't give up too many points up front because there won't be enough places to make up all of those points at the #5 spot.

I see the 3 teams listed above vying for that 4th spot. Dalton and Smithville might have a small advantage of having raced in mud last week. However, I'm willing to bet McDonald has logged some time on Boardman's course this week. Now, 1 of the teams from GlenOak could break into the top 6, but I don't know if they'll climb all the way into the top 4.
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Mr Slippery I hear from a reliable source. That Gilmour’s top finisher at last years state meet has been training with the team and should be in the lineup.
 
cvctrackfan said:
A little.

Mr Slippery I hear from a reliable source. That Gilmour’s top finisher at last years state meet has been training with the team and should be in the lineup.
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That would make them a bigger favorite to win the regional, but I already have them winning anyway.
 
Boys D3 results

Rupe for the win

1. East Canton CCC had the Hornets by a few points after the first three runners. But they came on at four and five

2. Canton Central

3. Maplewood

4. South Range good job SR

5. McDonald
 
Girls D3 results

Richards Maplewood for the win

Team scores

1. Gilmour 47 (Gilmour ran two different runners then last week.)
2. Maplewood 83
3. Mineral Ridge 106
4. Smithville 172 a surprise but not a huge surprise
 
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Altor said:
8-3-4
I'm not going to spell it all out here, but the idea is that the chip is just used to identify the runners. The video still needs to be reviewed to make sure the order is correct.
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That is correct. no matter which chip system is used we always verify correct placing for every runner. The chip is what gives us our time and order and then verified with camera. Every place is verified.
Shoe chips are better in muddy/wet conditions unless they start losing shoes. Bib chips are being used due to covid and the handling of them as suggested by health dept and ohsaa.
 
I guess I buy into the mystique of McDonald too much at times, haha.

Congratulations to all the D3 teams that advanced from Boardman.
My initial reactions are:
D3 GlenOak boys was strong. 3 of the teams and 9 of the 16 individuals advancing to state were from GlenOak. Canton CC's top 4 ran well, but East Canton kept it close at those spots and then let their depth finish the job.

D3 GlenOak girls was weak. No team in the top 5 and only 3 of the 16 individuals advancing were from that district. The Wayne County Athletic League took 4 of the 16 individual spots and also had 3 individuals advance in the boys race. That league is gradually building a resume in this sport.
 
Upset special
boys D2
Graham of Marlington for the win.

1. Bay. 77
2. Woodridge 84
3. Marlington 114
4. Tallmadge 156
5. NDCL 169
6. Fairview Park 231

when Bay put two runners in the top three and ran just about ran even at 3,4,5, that was it. Looking at the mile mark video on Milesplit Woodridge looked to be in trouble early on. Hats off to Fairview Park for grappling the last spot and West G for a great effort.
 
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Champa was the likely favorite, but Graham's victory wasn't that big of an upset. It's great to see him healthy and running well. He collapsed at this meet 2 years ago as a freshman. His dad was pretty handy as a runner and coached a HS team to a state title, and his mom was a 4x all-everything in HS and had a fine career at Malone (career began at OU, IIRC). She has done a phenomenal job rebuilding the Marlington boys program. They couldn't score a team at the time she took over. They're having a great season, and they're still a year away, IMHO.
 
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Woodridge girls beat $V$M?! LCCC takes 4 of the state slots! What a day.

Nice job by Bay boys. Got to love seeing teams fight it out.

Woodridge girls not just rolling over for $V$M.

Would have to think the favorites for next week are Bay, Unioto and Woodridge for the boys. Exciting.
 
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Boys D1

1. Hudson 116
2. St. Ignatius 148
3. Kenston 155
4. Mentor 192
5. Hoover 216
6. Louisville 223
7. Medina 231
8. Solon 253
9. Jackson 265

1. Nathan Moore (Lake) 16:26.2
2. Tommy Rice (Glen Oak) 16:37.5
3. Clay Peets (Firestone) 16:44.4
4 Frank Bero (Boardman) 16:48.9
5. Alex Zuckett (Jackson) 16:53.7
 
Our team had a good race in the mud today and qualified to move on.
I would like to know if any other teams have been told they have to drive 153 miles the morning of state to run? With Covid I would assume we are not the only ones not being allowed to go down Friday and stay in a hotel.
 
billcarson said:
Our team had a good race in the mud today and qualified to move on.
I would like to know if any other teams have been told they have to drive 153 miles the morning of state to run? With Covid I would assume we are not the only ones not being allowed to go down Friday and stay in a hotel.
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Can you charter a bus for a more comfortable trip, or would that not fly w/ the bus drivers' union?
 
billcarson said:
Our team had a good race in the mud today and qualified to move on.
I would like to know if any other teams have been told they have to drive 153 miles the morning of state to run? With Covid I would assume we are not the only ones not being allowed to go down Friday and stay in a hotel.
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We made that decision years ago, and COVID just made it easier. We are more nervous about the risk over the next few days of a positive test that would shoot the whole thing to heck. Fingers crossed that all the kids all over the state stay clear of it before Saturday.
 
jakeburg said:
We made that decision years ago, and COVID just made it easier. We are more nervous about the risk over the next few days of a positive test that would shoot the whole thing to heck. Fingers crossed that all the kids all over the state stay clear of it before Saturday.
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First of all, congratulations to your runners for making it back to state. Also, excellent work by you and your staff to bring them along to where they needed to be at this point in the season. As you could see from my pre-race predictions, I thought your team had a chance, but I liked a couple other teams' chances a little more. Shows you what I know. It has to feel even greater when your kids beat a few teams that had beaten them earlier in the season.

It wouldn't even have to be 1 of your runners, and that is what makes it so nerve-racking. Your runners could do everything right, including something as basic as going to class. A classmate who sits next to one of them returns a positive test, and suddenly the principal and school nurse examine the seating charts to determine who else needs to be quarantined. A couple DI teams at GlenOak lost their #1 runners that way for districts last weekend. Neither of their teams advanced, but at least 1 would've and the other would've been very close for the 8th and final spot to regionals. Both of those #1 runners stood better than good chances of qualifying to state as individuals. One of those teams had their #2 runner qualify to state with a strong run today.

Even worse would be the situation you describe in which a team member returns a positive and sends the entire team into quarantine. It's not much consolation, but at least the teams and individuals know that they've made it this far instead of having to imagine how track season might have gone back in the spring. That'll sting for at least a few more months.
 
Mr. Slippery said:
First of all, congratulations to your runners for making it back to state. Also, excellent work by you and your staff to bring them along to where they needed to be at this point in the season. As you could see from my pre-race predictions, I thought your team had a chance, but I liked a couple other teams' chances a little more. Shows you what I know. It has to feel even greater when your kids beat a few teams that had beaten them earlier in the season.

It wouldn't even have to be 1 of your runners, and that is what makes it so nerve-racking. Your runners could do everything right, including something as basic as going to class. A classmate who sits next to one of them returns a positive test, and suddenly the principal and school nurse examine the seating charts to determine who else needs to be quarantined. A couple DI teams at GlenOak lost their #1 runners that way for districts last weekend. Neither of their teams advanced, but at least 1 would've and the other would've been very close for the 8th and final spot to regionals. Both of those #1 runners stood better than good chances of qualifying to state as individuals. One of those teams had their #2 runner qualify to state with a strong run today.

Even worse would be the situation you describe in which a team member returns a positive and sends the entire team into quarantine. It's not much consolation, but at least the teams and individuals know that they've made it this far instead of having to imagine how track season might have gone back in the spring. That'll sting for at least a few more months.
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Yeah, exactly. Thanks for your good words. I’m still teasing out Yappidentities lol. We knew we were trending right, the way our girls teams have over the years. Just had to let some drama settle and trust the kids to be who we knew they were deep down. It’s been a heckuva fascinating season, and now it’s getting really fun.

Greg and I talked tonight and we’re working on a plan and will talk to the school principal. Fingers crossed. All the best.
 
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