New SW Ohio conference- Three Rivers Conference

nwwarrior09

Well-known member
I can't see Fort Loramie leaving the SCAL any time soon. Certainly not for this league. I think they've pretty much shown their hand that they value the county rivalries they have in all sports, especially basketball, over having a more stable football situation.

With the way that realignment has been going in the area over the last year or so schools seem to be trying to get away from mega leagues back to 8-10 school groupings. I don't think it makes any sense to expand geography here to expand numbers. In the only case in which I could see a need for a replacement is if Lehman closes at some point in the future. My pick in that event would be Indian Lake. Shrinking enrollment and smallest school in the CBC with close proximity to Riverside. D3 basketball and D5 football. Pretty solid football program the last several years with 1-2 really good teams. I don't see their enrollment ever rebounding.

I don't think the core pieces of the OHC are ever going to break apart. Most of those schools were together pre-OHC in the WCOC in the north or in the KTC in the south. Prior to those leagues many of those schools were together in the DVL way back in the 60s and 70s.

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BlessEmAll

Moderator
Joe, what crawled up your skirt? If you don’t have something of substance then please don’t post. I realize that is a stretch for Lewisburg folk.
 
Eaton, Brookville and Valley View have been playing MAC teams. If the SWBL goes to 9 league games, some MAC schools may need Week 2 opponents. Milton would be a nice game for them. Versailles would be a nice game.
 

D4fan

Well-known member
I can't see Fort Loramie leaving the SCAL any time soon. Certainly not for this league. I think they've pretty much shown their hand that they value the county rivalries they have in all sports, especially basketball, over having a more stable football situation.

With the way that realignment has been going in the area over the last year or so schools seem to be trying to get away from mega leagues back to 8-10 school groupings. I don't think it makes any sense to expand geography here to expand numbers. In the only case in which I could see a need for a replacement is if Lehman closes at some point in the future. My pick in that event would be Indian Lake. Shrinking enrollment and smallest school in the CBC with close proximity to Riverside. D3 basketball and D5 football. Pretty solid football program the last several years with 1-2 really good teams. I don't see their enrollment ever rebounding.

I don't think the core pieces of the OHC are ever going to break apart. Most of those schools were together pre-OHC in the WCOC in the north or in the KTC in the south. Prior to those leagues many of those schools were together in the DVL way back in the 60s and 70s.

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Does Lehman not accept the Ed Choice vouchers?
As I understand it, these vouchers are no longer based off of a school districts performance but are strictly available based on income no matter what district you reside in. Private schools will have a great opportunity to grow as long as this program stays in place under current terms.

I looked up Ed Choice and found in 2005-2006 it started with only students assigned to failing districts qualified to receive these vouchers. In 2013 it was expanded to income based regardless of district, and 2017-2018 saw over 9000 students take advantage of this with an average value of over $4,000 per voucher, which many private schools accept as full tuition. I would think growth would be more likely than shrinkage?
 

dograt

Active member
Any possibility the move to this league creates excitement in the Lehman community and families who were on the fence decide to enroll there? Or is this crazy talk?

I know if I was considering Lehman (or TC), sports would not be the #1 factor, but it would be a factor. Does this help?
 

winbypin

Well-known member
Any possibility the move to this league creates excitement in the Lehman community and families who were on the fence decide to enroll there? Or is this crazy talk?

I know if I was considering Lehman (or TC), sports would not be the #1 factor, but it would be a factor. Does this help?
I doubt the new league affiliation will help with enrollment at either private school. Success in the league might though. What each offers is the chance to play varsity as a freshman versus Sidney, piqua, or Troy. That might appeal to some people on the fence.
 

BlessEmAll

Moderator
Most of the kids used to be from MAC schools that attended Lehman. Now I’m not sure. Troy Christian gets from all over.
 

nwwarrior09

Well-known member
I could be mistaken, but I don't think you can charge additional tuition to anyone that uses an Ed Choice voucher, i.e. you take a hit on the difference between the voucher and what you charge everyone else. The value is pretty much limited to filling space up to the point that you need to hire additional teachers/staff and take on additional operating costs.

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winbypin

Well-known member
Most of the kids used to be from MAC schools that attended Lehman. Now I’m not sure. Troy Christian gets from all over.
Not sure how many kids from Lehman are from MAC schools. Sidney holy angels, piqua Catholic, and st. Pats (Troy) all feed Lehman. I don't know many of the families there but the ones I do live in those three communities. Drive around Troy during football season and you will see several Lehman flags up. Most of Troy Christian kids live in Troy but they do draw from several other communities. They have an unofficial feeder that is Salem Christian over in Brookville too.
 

StateChampion2012

Well-known member
Not sure how many kids from Lehman are from MAC schools. Sidney holy angels, piqua Catholic, and st. Pats (Troy) all feed Lehman. I don't know many of the families there but the ones I do live in those three communities. Drive around Troy during football season and you will see several Lehman flags up. Most of Troy Christian kids live in Troy but they do draw from several other communities. They have an unofficial feeder that is Salem Christian over in Brookville too.
I'm going to guess next to zero. Not sure if New Bremen, Minster, or Anna have actually lost kids to Lehman. My guess is the other way around is happening.
 

D4fan

Well-known member
Any possibility the move to this league creates excitement in the Lehman community and families who were on the fence decide to enroll there? Or is this crazy talk?

I know if I was considering Lehman (or TC), sports would not be the #1 factor, but it would be a factor. Does this help?
I think it does help with some districts. A district such as Bradford , Newton, Fairlawn, these are districts that have little chance of competing for a conference title. You may have a kid every so often from one of these districts that may consider a private school but as mentioned above that likely only comes into play if the private school is itself contending for a title every few years,

Coaching is a huge draw for a private school. I can recall a time when TC had a lack of coaching in multiple sports and lost a D1 recruit in girls basketball, two D 1 recruits in football 1 went back to Northmont then on to Cincinnnati, the other went back to Troy, then on to Eastern Michigan.

It's probably more accurate to say good athletics will retain more students who are good athletes than draw new athletes to the school just for sports. Academics will draw far more kids in than athletics. Most parents still remember why schools exist and will not focus on athletics.
 

BlessEmAll

Moderator
Lehman, when they had Asher as coach, got a ton of kids from MAC schools. That’s been 20 years ago. Lehman can’t survive on Sidney kids. Obviously this is why the enrollment is down.
 

winbypin

Well-known member
I don't think anyone said Lehman has only Sidney kids. That's why I mentioned piqua and Troy who both have Catholic schools.
 
Things change as we all see. I would've never imagined Milton in a conference with Riverside and Bethel.
I think judging this based on today isn't fair. This will never be the MAC. PERIOD. But this will be a fun league with five Miami County schools. Rivals and similar kids. I love it being a Miami County resident. This could be very competitive.
MIlton vs Miami East already a great match up. MU vs Covington should be a big deal.
 

BucksFan937

Well-known member
I don't think anyone said Lehman has only Sidney kids. That's why I mentioned piqua and Troy who both have Catholic schools.
I'm not sure if it has much to do with Sidney Lehman's enrollment or not, but I've noticed at a couple track meets this year that I've seen a school called Sidney Christian Academy. I have never heard of this school until this year. Maybe this school is taking some of the kids that previously went to Sidney Lehman?
 

ReadyKnightsFan

Active member
If I had to take a guess, I'd say next to 0 kids are going to Lehman from MAC country. Fort Loramie is even closer and I don't think Lehman pulls any kids from there either. Once you get north of Sidney all those small schools act as their own Catholic school essentially.
 

Rangerfan

Active member
Some kids in MAC country (at least Minster and New Bremen) used to get letters encouraging them to look into going to Lehman, but I do not know if any of them ever did. But that was decades ago.
 

winbypin

Well-known member
I'm not sure if it has much to do with Sidney Lehman's enrollment or not, but I've noticed at a couple track meets this year that I've seen a school called Sidney Christian Academy. I have never heard of this school until this year. Maybe this school is taking some of the kids that previously went to Sidney Lehman?
It's possible but that school is tiny so if they did take students it wasn't very many.
 

Buckeyes04

New member
The calpreps projections I saw earlier in this thread had me thinking. There was some talk about Riverside not belonging or not offering a lot, which is understandable. Small school in a crappy conference. Seeing the calpreps projections from the 2018 season, made me curious about the 2015 season (Riverside went 9-1 and won their first playoff game in school history).

2015 Calpreps Projections:

Riverside- 28, Lehman- 21 (Lehman won in regular season 26-21)
Riverside- 31, Troy Christian- 20
Riverside- 28, Miami East- 31
Riverside- 24, Covington- 21
Riverside- 38, Bethel- 14
Riverside- 24, Milton Union- 19
Riverside- 42, Northridge- 17

I thought this was interesting. Riverside has been extremely competitive the last 5 years. In their best year, 2015, they hypothetically would've only lost to ME in the new league (yes, I know they also lost to Lehman). Does this mean Riverside will be at the top of the league all the time, heck no. Just wanted to point out that as a small school, they know how to compete, especially when they have a good cycle of athletes coming through. Here's to hoping they keep it up as they join this tougher athletic conference! I do think they offer more than a Bradford, MV, Tri-Village, or even Arcanum (Riv beat Arcanum in 15 & 16). Glad the Riverside administration wanted better for their student athletes and community and accepted the challenge of this new league. Anything is a step up in competition from the NWCC.
 

dograt

Active member
Interesting. sketchy, but interesting. (MU beat Miami East 21-7 that year. Riverside is favored by 2 TD's over Milton but not favored over East?)

I don't think the difference in these schools is that great. Do I think they Riverside is the strongest team in the league? no. Do I think they are going 0-7 every year, not even close. I think any team in this league has a chance to win it when they have good years. If everybody has an average year I expect MU, East, and Covington to be at the top. But any of the other 5 with a good class can beat the average teams from the rest of the league.
 

Buckeyes04

New member
Interesting. sketchy, but interesting. (MU beat Miami East 21-7 that year. Riverside is favored by 2 TD's over Milton but not favored over East?)

I don't think the difference in these schools is that great. Do I think they Riverside is the strongest team in the league? no. Do I think they are going 0-7 every year, not even close. I think any team in this league has a chance to win it when they have good years. If everybody has an average year I expect MU, East, and Covington to be at the top. But any of the other 5 with a good class can beat the average teams from the rest of the league.
Agreed! High school football, nothing is guaranteed! Excited to see this new league take shape. However, I wish they would have started in fall 2020 instead of 2021.
 

BlessEmAll

Moderator
2015 was a playoff year for MU. Lost to Greeneview in the first round by 1 point. for CalPreps to be correct you need to go back at least 5 seasons. It's not really that accurate either. Let's go back for MU over the last 5 seasons. 18, 17, 16, 15 ,14.
2018: 6-4
2017: 4-6
2016: 7-3 (Playoffs)
2015: 6-4 (Playoffs)
2014: 3-7

Riverside:
2018: 6-4 (Playoffs)
2017: 6-4 (Playoffs)
2016: 7-3
2015: 9-1 (Playoffs)
2014: 6-4

Now on the surface it looks like Riverside would be a big favorite over MU. But look at the opponents records and then the total points gained per week in those years. 2015 MU gained 14.5 PPG ave. Number 4 in Region 18 with a 6-4 record.
Riverside gained 13.1 PPG ave and a #4 placing in Region 26 with a 9-1 record.
That tells the story for me. MU's schedule was way harder and we played much bigger and stronger and faster opponents. Just like if we played Tipp City in a year that we are 9-1, typically Tipp will beat us due to being much larger with better athletes.
Not taking anything away from Riverside, they have done very well with their conference and against tough competition. But the every week beating they will take with smaller rosters will be an issue. Milton had 80+ on the roster in 2012. That was not typical but our current coach has the ability to get those numbers again.
I'm hoping Riverside is a tough, hard-nosed competitor. I'll be rooting for them against everyone but MU.
Troy Christian and Bethel will be very good as well.

This is Milton's schedule in 2015.
8/28 A Miami East (8-3) [6:22] W 21-7
9/5 A Oakwood (5-5) [4:14] W 36-30
9/11 H Tippecanoe (10-2) [3:10] L 12-35
9/18 H Northridge (4-6) [5:18] W 29-22
9/25 H Preble Shawnee (3-7) [5:18] W 33-14
10/2 A Madison (7-3) [4:14] L 6-14
10/9 H Brookville (12-1) [5:18] L 13-34
10/16 H Carlisle (6-5) [5:18] W 28-7
10/23 A Dixie (1-9) [6:22] W 41-8
10/30 A Waynesville (4-6) [4:14] L 17-34
11/6 H # Greeneview (8-4) [5:18] L 34-35
 

yakyak

Well-known member
You make a very good point about these programs not used to the beating there going to take in this conference. Can TC / Riverside hold up?? They usually have to go both ways with all their players, huge disadvantage.

Offseason is important, but the smaller schools weight room will be so critical to just be able to compete week 7 - 10.
 

BlessEmAll

Moderator
MU just hired a Strength and Conditioning coach and expanded the weight room. I know Covington and Miami East have strong kids, Bethel and the rest I'm not sure about. I can only speak to what I know about Milton.
 
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