Michigan will beat ohio state

adselder09

Well-known member
As it should be. If you don’t win your conference championship you don’t belong in the CFP.

Putting this rivalry game earlier in the year only makes sense to me if they put them in opposite divisions. Then the loser could still play in the conference championship.
I agree with all of that, but we've also seen non-conference champions in the Playoff before - Alabama, Ohio State and Georgia.
 

nwwarrior09

Well-known member
The College Football Nerds did their data analytic heavy breakdown and they said the way you beat tOSU in 2022 is with a solid vertical passing game on the outside, something Maryland has and UM really doesn't have. Thinking about it they are right, Penn State had their success with big plays on the outside to WRs that broke off long TD runs. Not much over the middle and all the way back to week 1 Mayer didn't go crazy against this defense. Harbough might be wise to try and see if they can ride JJ in this one.

I also saw Nicole Aurbach do a deep dive into the tOSU v Maryland game and she talked about all the speed and top rated WRs the Terps have on the outside along with Tua's brother chucking nice passes to them. They also got back a couple OL for tOSU that helped keep the pocket fairly clean, she thinks they are a program to keep an eye on for 2023.
I generally agree with this. The corners and the 3rd corner/slot guy (McCallister) jump off the page to me as being by far the biggest weak links in their defense. If you can challenge them vertically, and I think especially if you can force McCallister to cover an athletic player 1-on-1 in space (such as Washington from Penn State), they can have some serious issues.
 

nutsnbolts

Well-known member
I agree with all of that, but we've also seen non-conference champions in the Playoff before - Alabama, Ohio State and Georgia.
Yep, and it was wrong then too.
I‘ve never watched a CFP game with two teams from the same conference.
Two teams from the same conference playing a second time doesn’t prove which one is better, unless the same team wins. And then it just proves that it is stupid to have two from the same conference.
 

Auggie

Well-known member
Not much movement on the spread, still sitting at UM +7.5 after starting last week at -8.5. UM has also been getting some action on the money line and that seems to be starting to move down too. Total is a tough play with the Corum health situation hanging over this game. If it looks like he will be out or be on a carry count then it should head south on Saturday morning. Weather doesn't look to be a factor this year, low 50s and dry is perfect football weather.
 
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Foster

Active member
Not much movement on the spread, still sitting at UM -7.5 after starting last week at -8.5. UM has also been getting some action on the money line and that seems to be starting to move down too. Total is a tough play with the Corum health situation hanging over this game. If it looks like he will be out or be on a carry count then it should head south on Saturday morning. Weather doesn't look to be a factor this year, low 50s and dry is perfect football weather.
I think OSU is favored by 7.5
 

Takethempoints

Active member
McCarthey has completed 39 of 78 in his last 3 games. If Michigan is gonna win, he'll have to clean that up. 50% completion percentage won't do against a good team. Last season Stroud Choked up there. After a season of beating down weak Big Ten competition, his first big road game didn't go well. All of a sudden there are guys in his face, the fans are out of their minds and I'm from Los Angeles and its FN snowing! I think McCarthey is in that role this year. They haven't played anybody on the road. OSU doesn't have a Hutchinson on the end, but they have enough talent there to make it a rough day for JJ. Buckeye fans love to talk about "It wasn't CJ's fault. He threw for 370 yards up there." Blah. He was horrific on 3rd down. Missed 2 throws that would have converted and took 3 SACKS. I think that is the kind of day McCarthey is gonna have.

I heard two different Michigan podcasts this week say "This will be the best defense OSU has seen all year". They are really harping on OSU's game at Maryland and how the Buckeye defense got shredded. Looking a little closer we see that Michigan allowed Maryland to convert 5 of 7 long drives to points (71%) AT MICHIGAN. Ohio State allowed 5 out of 10 (50%) at Maryland.

Only thing OSU fans need to worry about is Ryan Day. If Michigan keeps it close, Day may find a way to lose. Last week, 4th quarter, game on the line, 4th and 1 and the Bucks throw a fade. Never thought I would miss watching Jim Tressel games.

Notably, With the non con weaklings removed, OSU averages slightly more yards per rush attempt than Michigan. Michigan has a slight edge in defensive YPC.

Both of my models are built on Long Drive Success variations. This is what I have.

Long drives converted to TD's Opponent long drives converted to TD's

OSU 32 OSU 13
Michigan 22 UM 9.

Quarterback Adjusted Yards Per Play
Stroud 8.2175
McCarthey 6.349

Predicted margin of victory: Ohio State +5.17 PTS.
Win Probability: Ohio State 71%

I will take the Buckeyes on the moneyline if it gets below (-300). I'm not touching that spread.
 

Wildcat97

Well-known member
Stroud stats from the game last year don't look like a choke. Fact is played from behind and defense couldn't get off the field and get the 1-2 stops it needed
 

Takethempoints

Active member
Stroud got all his yards when it was a 2 score game. Michigan would score to go up 14 and then soften it's coverage to not allow a quick score. OSU would get a long time consuming drive which UM was fine with.

Stroud on 3rd down while it was a 1 score (either team) game.

3 - 6 21 yds 3.5 YPA. 2 sacks

Stroud on 3rd down when Michigan was playing soft coverage with a 2 score lead.

6 - 6 77 YDS 12.83 YPA. 0 sacks

1 drive was 13 plays. The other was 17. Pretty obvious what happened. Fact is he choked when it counted. Stat sheet is just a tad misleading from that game.
 

nwwarrior09

Well-known member
Their defense giving up 300 rushing yards hurt enormously worse than any handful of plays Stroud could have had a better outcome on in the first 2-2 1/2 quarters.

Their offense would have had to have been all-world in the game last year to overcome being severely handicapped by a porous defense. Talking about "empty yards" in the passing game ignores that said passing game cut it to a one score game twice in the second half with longer, time consuming drives only to have the defense go back on the field and look like turnstiles in a second half in which they gave up TDs on all four of UM's possessions.
 

nwwarrior09

Well-known member
If UM is without Corum and Edwards OSU wins by at least 2 scores IMO.
The biggest factor in the game by far IMO is the health of these guys (and to a lesser extent, Schoonmaker). I'd have a lot more confidence in Hayden getting the bulk of the RB snaps for OSU than I'd have in any of the guys that got snaps for Michigan against Illinois when these guys were out.

By far the weakest link in Ohio State's defense IMO is the three corners in coverage (outside and slot), and whether it's talent or scheme or both, I'm not sure Michigan is capable of taking advantage of that like Maryland did and like Penn State did with one specific matchup. They have to win the battle up front and have a stout day running the football to win.
 

irish_buffalo

Well-known member
The biggest factor in the game by far IMO is the health of these guys (and to a lesser extent, Schoonmaker). I'd have a lot more confidence in Hayden getting the bulk of the RB snaps for OSU than I'd have in any of the guys that got snaps for Michigan against Illinois when these guys were out.

By far the weakest link in Ohio State's defense IMO is the three corners in coverage (outside and slot), and whether it's talent or scheme or both, I'm not sure Michigan is capable of taking advantage of that like Maryland did and like Penn State did with one specific matchup. They have to win the battle up front and have a stout day running the football to win.
If UM cannot run the ball it will not matter. McCarthy cannot sling it like McNamara could. Last week against Illinois he had some glaring missfires. We will see lots of 3 and outs and even if the UM defense can contain the OSU offense for a while the more opportunities you give Day the more he will figure a way to move the ball (not to mention wearing the Michigan D down) much like they did with Iowa and Northwestern.
 

Wildcat97

Well-known member
If Corum playing and osu wins toss I take ball and put 7 on board in perfect pass game conditions.

If Corum doesn't play, kick, stop score and make them play catchup without 2nd half kick as well
 

Hammerdrill

Well-known member
Stroud got all his yards when it was a 2 score game. Michigan would score to go up 14 and then soften it's coverage to not allow a quick score. OSU would get a long time consuming drive which UM was fine with.

Stroud on 3rd down while it was a 1 score (either team) game.

3 - 6 21 yds 3.5 YPA. 2 sacks

Stroud on 3rd down when Michigan was playing soft coverage with a 2 score lead.

6 - 6 77 YDS 12.83 YPA. 0 sacks

1 drive was 13 plays. The other was 17. Pretty obvious what happened. Fact is he choked when it counted. Stat sheet is just a tad misleading from that game.

Yeah, he accidentally threw for 400 yds. How many other QBs did that vs UM last year?
 

Hammerdrill

Well-known member
If Corum playing and osu wins toss I take ball and put 7 on board in perfect pass game conditions.

If Corum doesn't play, kick, stop score and make them play catchup without 2nd half kick as well
Problem is we won't know if he is playing until they come out on offense.
 

Wildcat97

Well-known member
Understood. If he is dressed and participate in pregame, which assumedly he will either way, then take the ball first since 55 sunny and calm
 

irish_buffalo

Well-known member
Would Ohio State had any close games if JSN were healthy all season?
Yes, not much would have changed.

Back in the 70's and 80's teams like Nebraska and Oklahoma and Michigan had 1,000 yard rushers every year. And while these schools certainly had some talented backs it was more the system.

OSU's pass game is similar today. While JSN is an incredible talent (and will play pro ball) so are Harrison, Egbuka, and Fleming.

If I was advising Top 5 QBs and WRs there are only 2 coaches I would want them to play for, Day and Riley.
 

bigkat

Well-known member
Would Ohio State had any close games if JSN were healthy all season?
yes.... the recievers they have on the field now, are pretty dang good...... i think the last few games, Stroud has been a little inconsistant..... the boys up front will be the KEY to the game tomorrow....
 

AEW Champion

Well-known member
I received an advance copy of Ryan Day’s pregame speech for today. He is expected to say the following:

“To Whom It May Concern,

Last year, our manhood was put to the test by Michigan. We failed miserably and were humiliated on national TV by a team we once owned in brighter days for our program. We played like a bunch of sissies.

In all likelihood, the same thing is going to happen again today. Michigan is going to run the ball right at us. We’re going to get penetrated more times than Joey Chestnut’s throat at the Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest. Speaking of gorging, you O-linemen look like you just ate a whole turkey and pumpkin pie. Are we going to get any first downs on 3rd and short or nah?

But I digress. Men, you came to Ohio State for one reason and one reason only: To go to the NFL. Jaxon Smith-Njigba is someone you should all want to be, so you won’t have to go through games like today. So remember this: Even when you lose today, keep your head held high. Sure, the fans and your fellow students might say you let them down. But you can tell them that you might go to the NFL!

For those of you who are leaving us for the NFL, I want to congratulate you for playing your final game for Ohio State today and no longer having to worry about the charade of going to class. I know you won’t be around for whatever meaningless bowl game we get shipped to, and frankly I can’t blame you for not wanting to get hurt.

Lastly, I assure you that our Big Ten schedule has not in the slightest prepared us for what we are facing today. But let’s try to run up some solid passing stats and keep it relatively close so my name remains en vogue for NFL coach vacancies.

Thank you for your time, and enjoy that we’ve got scarlet jerseys to camouflage the blood that you will likely spill in bitter defeat.

— 30 —”


It’s true, it’s true. Trust me …
 

AEW Champion

Well-known member
Final score predictions?

I’ll go Michigan 31, Ohio State 28.

It’s true, it’s true. Trust me …
Looks like I gave the Ohio State defense a little too much credit.

As I’ve said before, when I say something, you all should take it to the bank. Sooner or later you all will learn.

It’s true, it’s true. Trust me …
 
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