If Russia invades Ukraine pt 2

Yes, US companies such as McDonals & Papa John’s were slightly hurt or the cost of fertilizer (Scott’s) increased significantly but the one that hurt the most was the 10% of world oil production by Russia - it drove the cost of oil up because of the uncertainty of who/where that 10% would come from.

As for Russia, they have endured:
* banking challenges
* difficulty in receiving spare computer chips for anything that requires them. What the already had or still get seems to be going to the ‘Special Military Operation’. How does the world know Russia is having difficult in getting computer chips…..they have been buying drones from Iran instead of producing them themselves
* Brain drain - This is the one that will be felt over the next decade. Those who are educated or skilled had the means to leave Mother Russia and find employment in other countries. Many did so to avoid enrollment in the Russian army.

Did sanctions hurt the world economy and more importantly the US & our allies - absolutely. Did/is/will the sanctions continue to hurt Russia/Putin - most definitely.

This has been hashed over on this thread multiple times already, people will believe what they want to believe mostly because of their US political following.

The sanctions were supposed to force Russia to give up the war. The ruble was going to be rubble and Russia would collapse in a month or two. That unquestionably did not happen and isn’t going to happen. I’m not sure how anyone could call the sanctions anything more than a partial success at very best.

Have sanctions impacted their ability to get goods? Absolutely they have but Russia has managed to circumvent much of the bite of sanctions.

The bank challenges Russia to my surprise managed to resolve quickly. I didn’t think they’d be able to salvage the ruble. The Russian finance minister might be the most competent individual in Russian government.

The west’s decision to kick Russia out of swift and seize their foreign assets was a mistake. It did little to hinder Russia but it set off moves away from dollar dominance and away from the western finance system. We actually made ourselves weaker.

Russia buys Iranian drones because Russia has little in the way of larger size kamakazi drones. Lots of smaller lancet’s but nothing of a larger size like Shaheeds and Geran’s.
 

And then they have a major population problem. Especially with their best and brightest.

AI is going to make your population concerns less problematic. Many of the jobs those people would fill will be done by AI. Going to be a wild ride for the next decade or so imo.


All of these despots want so badly to team up and crush the West but the do not trust one another because they are all giant pieces of schit.

I don’t believe they wish to crush the west. If they crush it who’s going to buy their goods and trade with them? What they do want imo is to be treated as equals and not be sanctioned.

The world is changing geopolitically and our bag of tricks needs to change with it.
 
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The sanctions were supposed to force Russia to give up the war. The ruble was going to be rubble and Russia would collapse in a month or two. That unquestionably did not happen and isn’t going to happen. I’m not sure how anyone could call the sanctions anything more than a partial success at very best.

Have sanctions impacted their ability to get goods? Absolutely they have but Russia has managed to circumvent much of the bite of sanctions.

The bank challenges Russia to my surprise managed to resolve quickly. I didn’t think they’d be able to salvage the ruble. The Russian finance minister might be the most competent individual in Russian government.

The west’s decision to kick Russia out of swift and seize their foreign assets was a mistake. It did little to hinder Russia but it set off moves away from dollar dominance and away from the western finance system. We actually made ourselves weaker.

Russia buys Iranian drones because Russia has little in the way of larger size kamakazi drones. Lots of smaller lancet’s but nothing of a larger size like Shaheeds and Geran’s.
Russia's economy is in serious trouble: https://markets.businessinsider.com...abor-shortage-ukraine-war-mobilization-2023-5


 
The sanctions were supposed to force Russia to give up the war. The ruble was going to be rubble and Russia would collapse in a month or two. That unquestionably did not happen and isn’t going to happen. I’m not sure how anyone could call the sanctions anything more than a partial success at very best.

Have sanctions impacted their ability to get goods? Absolutely they have but Russia has managed to circumvent much of the bite of sanctions.

The bank challenges Russia to my surprise managed to resolve quickly. I didn’t think they’d be able to salvage the ruble. The Russian finance minister might be the most competent individual in Russian government.

The west’s decision to kick Russia out of swift and seize their foreign assets was a mistake. It did little to hinder Russia but it set off moves away from dollar dominance and away from the western finance system. We actually made ourselves weaker.

Russia buys Iranian drones because Russia has little in the way of larger size kamakazi drones. Lots of smaller lancet’s but nothing of a larger size like Shaheeds and Geran’s.

Outside of raw materials and Russian immigrants, I can’t think of anything in my day to day life that depends on products/services/manufacturing out of Russia….ok, I guess there is cyber attacks.

If you truly believe the Russian economy has been hurt less by sanctions than the US/NATO economy and the US dollar is weaken or on a downward spiral then perhaps you should get ahead of the curve and convert your 401k into Rubles.
 
I heard Beck on my run today say that the Stinger missiles we are giving the Ukrainians cost 💲 400k apiece and the Ukes use 500 per day? He also said that a few years ago Stinger cost was 40k.

Basically his point was the the military industrial complex was fleecing the US.

Im going to do some more research because I find this astonishing if true. Does anyone have any facts to dispute this?
 
I heard Beck on my run today say that the Stinger missiles we are giving the Ukrainians cost 💲 400k apiece and the Ukes use 500 per day? He also said that a few years ago Stinger cost was 40k.

Basically his point was the the military industrial complex was fleecing the US.

Im going to do some more research because I find this astonishing if true. Does anyone have any facts to dispute this?
500 a day? What are they shooting at?
 
I heard Beck on my run today say that the Stinger missiles we are giving the Ukrainians cost 💲 400k apiece and the Ukes use 500 per day? He also said that a few years ago Stinger cost was 40k.

Basically his point was the the military industrial complex was fleecing the US.

Im going to do some more research because I find this astonishing if true. Does anyone have any facts to dispute this?
500 a day? What are they shooting at?
Not a chance that is even remotely accurate.
 
I heard Beck on my run today say that the Stinger missiles we are giving the Ukrainians cost 💲 400k apiece and the Ukes use 500 per day? He also said that a few years ago Stinger cost was 40k.

Basically his point was the the military industrial complex was fleecing the US.

Im going to do some more research because I find this astonishing if true. Does anyone have any facts to dispute this?
500 a day? What are they shooting at?
Not a chance that is even remotely accurate.
agree. We don’t have enough to do that even if we wanted to. And they probably don’t even have 5 targets a month. Plus I don’t think we can produce replacements quickly if at all.
 
I heard Beck on my run today say that the Stinger missiles we are giving the Ukrainians cost 💲 400k apiece and the Ukes use 500 per day? He also said that a few years ago Stinger cost was 40k.

Basically his point was the the military industrial complex was fleecing the US.

Im going to do some more research because I find this astonishing if true. Does anyone have any facts to dispute this?
The US awarded Raytheon $646M to build stingers that were given to Ukraine. We gave Ukraine 1400 stingers.

Beck stupidly states that the cost to build those stingers is now $450K each. What he doesn't tell you is that we stopped building stingers 10 years ago. The bulk of that money awarded is going to infrastructure to restart the production process. Raytheon will be producing far more than 1400 stingers out of their facility. The actual cost per Stinger we be far closer to the $40K each once production begins.

This is a very typical contract.
 
The intense firefight over Ukraine has the Pentagon rethinking its weapons stockpiles. If another major war broke out today, would the United States have enough ammunition to fight?


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It’s a question confronting Pentagon planners, not only as they aim to supply Ukraine for a war with Russia that could stretch years longer, but also as they look ahead to a potential conflict with China.
Russia is firing as many as 20,000 rounds a day, ranging from bullets for automatic rifles to truck-sized cruise missiles. Ukraine is answering with as many as 7,000 rounds a day, firing 155 mm howitzer rounds, Stinger anti-aircraft missiles and now NASAMS air defense munitions, and thousands of rounds of small arms fire.
Much of Ukraine’s firepower is being supplied through U.S. government-funded weapons that are pushed almost weekly to the front lines. On Wednesday, the Biden administration announced an additional round of aid that will provide 20 million more rounds of small arms ammunition to Kyiv.
“We’ve not been in a position where we’ve got only a few days of some critical munition left,” Pentagon comptroller Michael McCord told reporters this month. “But we are now supporting a partner who is.”
U.S. defense production lines are not scaled to supply a major land war, and some, like for the Stinger, were previously shut down.

That’s putting pressure on U.S. reserves and has officials asking whether U.S. weapons stockpiles are big enough. Would the U.S. be ready to respond to a major conflict today, for example if China invaded Taiwan?
“What would happen if something blew up in Indo-Pacom? Not five years from now, not 10 years from now, what if it happened next week?” Bill LaPlante, the Pentagon’s top weapons buyer, said, referring to the military’s Indo-Pacific Command. He spoke at a defense acquisitions conference this month at George Mason University in Virginia.
“What do we have in any degree of quantity? That will actually be effective? Those are the questions we’re asking right this minute,” he said.
The Army uses many of the same munitions that have proven most critical in Ukraine, including High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems, known as HIMARS, Stinger missiles and 155 mm howitzer rounds, and is now reviewing its stockpile requirements, Doug Bush, the Army’s assistant secretary for acquisition, told reporters Monday.

“They’re seeing what Ukraine is using, what we can produce and how fast we can ramp up, all of which are factors you would work into, ‘OK, how (big) does your pre-war stockpile need to be?” Bush said. “The slower you ramp up, the bigger the pile needs to be at the start.”
The military aid packages the U.S. sends either pull inventory from stockpiles or fund contracts with industry to step up production. At least $19 billion in military aid has been committed to date, including 924,000 artillery rounds for 155mm howitzers, more than 8,500 Javelin anti-tank systems, 1,600 Stinger anti-aircraft systems and hundreds of vehicles and drones. It’s also provided advanced air defense systems and 38 HIMARS, although the Pentagon does not disclose how many rounds of ammunition it sends with the rocket systems.
The infusion of weapons is raising questions on Capitol Hill.
This month, the administration asked Congress to provide $37 billion more in military and humanitarian aid to Ukraine in the post-election legislative session, and to approve it before Republicans take control of the House in January. House Republican leader Kevin McCarthy of California, who is seeking to become speaker, has warned that Republicans would not support writing a “blank check” for Ukraine.
Even with fresh money, stockpiles cannot be quickly replenished. Several of the systems proving most vital in Ukraine had their production lines shut down years ago. Keeping a production line open is expensive, and the Army had other spending priorities.

The Pentagon awarded Raytheon a $624 million contract for 1,300 new Stinger missiles in May, but the company said it will not be able to increase production until next year due to parts shortages.
“The Stinger line was shut down in 2008,” LaPlante said. “Really, who did that? We all did it. You did it. We did it,” he said, referring to Congress and the Pentagon’s decision not to fund continued production of the Army’s anti-aircraft munition, which can be launched by a soldier or mounted to a platform or truck.
Based on an analysis of past Army budget documents, Center for Strategic and International Studies senior adviser Mark Cancian estimates that the 1,600 Stinger systems the U.S. has provided to Ukraine represent about one-quarter of its total arsenal.
The HIMARS system, which Ukraine has used so effectively in its counteroffensive, faces some of the same challenges, LaPlante said.
“The thing now that is saving Ukraine, and that everybody around the world wants, we stopped production of it,” he said.

HIMARS production was shut down by the Army from about 2014 to 2018, LaPlante said. The Army is now trying to ramp up production to build up to eight a month, or 96 a year, Bush said.
HIMARS effectiveness in Ukraine has increased interest elsewhere, too. Poland, Lithuania and Taiwan have put in orders, even as the U.S. works to rush more to Ukraine. If the conflict drags on and more HIMARS ammunition is prioritized for Ukraine, that could potentially limit U.S. troops’ access to the rounds for live-fire training.
The Pentagon this month announced a $14.4 million contract to speed production of new HIMARS to replenish its stocks.
“This conflict has revealed that munitions production in the United States and with our allies is likely insufficient for major land wars,” said Ryan Brobst, an analyst at the Center on Military and Political Power at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies.
The U.S. also recently announced it would be supplying Ukraine with four Avenger air defense systems, portable launchers that can be mounted on tracked or wheeled vehicles, to provide another shorter-range option against the Iranian drones being used by Russia’s forces. But the Avenger systems rely on Stinger missiles, too.
Pentagon deputy press secretary Sabrina Singh said stockpile concerns were taken into account.
“We wouldn’t have provided these Stinger missiles if we didn’t feel that we could,” Singh said at a recent Pentagon briefing.
 
P
The US awarded Raytheon $646M to build stingers that were given to Ukraine. We gave Ukraine 1400 stingers.

Beck stupidly states that the cost to build those stingers is now $450K each. What he doesn't tell you is that we stopped building stingers 10 years ago. The bulk of that money awarded is going to infrastructure to restart the production process. Raytheon will be producing far more than 1400 stingers out of their facility. The actual cost per Stinger we be far closer to the $40K each once production begins.

This is a very typical contract.
The US awarded Raytheon $646M to build stingers that were given to Ukraine. We gave Ukraine 1400 stingers.
Beck stupidly states that the cost to build those stingers is now $450K each. What he doesn't tell you is that we stopped building stingers 10 years ago. The bulk of that money awarded is going to infrastructure to restart the production process. Raytheon will be producing far more than 1400 stingers out of their facility. The actual cost per Stinger we be far closer to the $40K each once production begins.

This is a very typical contract.
DoD effed up when they stopped making Stingers and moved that system from the active duty to the reserves. It’s not like we have some sort of replacement system.
 
P

The US awarded Raytheon $646M to build stingers that were given to Ukraine. We gave Ukraine 1400 stingers.

DoD effed up when they stopped making Stingers and moved that system from the active duty to the reserves. It’s not like we have some sort of replacement system.
Which is why I was so vehemently against the Lima tank plant closing a few years ago.

The cost to restart is enormous. Better to just buy excess production and stockpile it.
 
Article on Russia’s problem of trying to use/convert India’s Ruples. This is an example of some of the problems the sanctions is causing Russia.


I said months ago that Russia isn't really getting paid for their oil. Their two largest buyers are China and India and both are paying in currency that is worthless to the rest of the world. Both have told Russia they don't want their currency back. They want Dollars.

Tell me again how BRICS is going to crush the Dollar... lmao.
 
I said months ago that Russia isn't really getting paid for their oil. Their two largest buyers are China and India and both are paying in currency that is worthless to the rest of the world. Both have told Russia they don't want their currency back. They want Dollars.

Tell me again how BRICS is going to crush the Dollar... lmao.

Are you sure? I herd from a wise poster on this thread that China was paying above market price for Russian oil.
 
Honestly we should encourage India to buy even more oil in Rupees. That oil cost Dollars for Russia to produce and ship.

The more they "sell" the quicker it drains their coffers.
Oh, and China as well as India will never exchange their currency back to Dollars for Russia.

Why would they?
 
Honestly we should encourage India to buy even more oil in Rupees. That oil cost Dollars for Russia to produce and ship.

The more they "sell" the quicker it drains their coffers.

It also makes economic sense. The more oil India & China buys from Russia and not from Saudi Arabia - it only increases the world oil supply which decreases the world cost per barrel.
 
The performance of the Russian military and more importantly its arms/equipment is only hurting its military supply industry. It appears India will purchase fighter jet engines from the US instead of its Russia. India is “the world's largest arm importer, depends on Russia for nearly half its military supplies, and has bought fighter jets, tanks, nuclear submarines and an aircraft carrier over the decades.”

 
The performance of the Russian military and more importantly its arms/equipment is only hurting its military supply industry. It appears India will purchase fighter jet engines from the US instead of its Russia. India is “the world's largest arm importer, depends on Russia for nearly half its military supplies, and has bought fighter jets, tanks, nuclear submarines and an aircraft carrier over the decades.”

I posted a year ago that this would happen.

That the US would use military arms deals to entice India.
 
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