How many Ohio teams make the NCAA tournament?
- Thread starter Chop Stix
- Start date
nwwarrior09
Well-known member
Dayton and odds are a MAC tournament champ...the top of the league is very heavy on in-state teams (Akron, Toledo, Kent St., Ohio U.).
I think odds are there's a 3rd between UC, Xavier, and either Youngstown St./Wright St. as the Horizon League champ. Right now I'd be surprised if more than one of those three things occur.
I think odds are there's a 3rd between UC, Xavier, and either Youngstown St./Wright St. as the Horizon League champ. Right now I'd be surprised if more than one of those three things occur.
Fair analysis.
Just throwing numbers out there:
Dayton - 95% chance
MAC Champ - 85% chance
Cincinnati - 60% chance
Horizon Champ - 40% chance
Xavier - 33% chance
OSU - 5% chance
nwwarrior09
Well-known member
The current Lunardi "bracketology" has Dayton as a #4 seed and Akron (could just as well be Toledo, Kent, or Ohio U.) as a #13 seed.
Cincinnati is currently is his "first four out", so squarely on the bubble but on the wrong side of it.
Cincinnati is currently is his "first four out", so squarely on the bubble but on the wrong side of it.
Stirred not Shaken
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Ken Pomeroy has OSU at no. 62 in his rankings, no. 64 in NET rankings so I would put the Buckeye chances more at 20 %.
nwwarrior09
Well-known member
There are only 36 at-large bids...and unfortunately for major conference teams, I'd say there are a bunch of non-major conferences (Mountain West, Missouri Valley, WCC, Atlantic 10, etc.) that have teams that are locks to make it whether or not they win their league tourney.
The Mountain West has as many as six teams legitimately on the bubble, and ought to get at least 3-4 in. The Missouri Valley will get Drake and Indiana State in. St. Mary's and Gonzaga will get in from the WCC. If Dayton doesn't win the A-10 tournament, the A-10 will get two teams in. Those four leagues could gobble upwards of a dozen bids with some conference tourney upsets.
I'd consider anyone outside the top-50 in NET or KenPom to be a massive longshot.
The Mountain West has as many as six teams legitimately on the bubble, and ought to get at least 3-4 in. The Missouri Valley will get Drake and Indiana State in. St. Mary's and Gonzaga will get in from the WCC. If Dayton doesn't win the A-10 tournament, the A-10 will get two teams in. Those four leagues could gobble upwards of a dozen bids with some conference tourney upsets.
I'd consider anyone outside the top-50 in NET or KenPom to be a massive longshot.
nwwarrior09
Well-known member
Ohio State IMO has to win the Big Ten tournament to get in. Nothing else matters for them.
A Big Ten team with 12+ losses isn't getting an at-large bid this year.
A Big Ten team with 12+ losses isn't getting an at-large bid this year.
Of all those teams you listed, I'd say only St. Mary's and Dayton are locks so far (Dayton more so). The others still have work to do. Although, I agree that the Mountain West will get a chunk of teams in the tournament this year.
Quality wins (Q1 and Q2) play a bigger factor on a team's resume than their actual NET ranking in many instances which is where many mid-major teams fall short come Selection Sunday. For example, Providence (#60) and Seton Hall (#63) have less than impressive NET rankings but are right on the cusp of the bubble due to having accumulated 4-5 Q1 wins each.
Stirred not Shaken
Well-known member
You might know more than I when it comes to NCAA ball seeding, but I believe the Bucks win 4/5 last reg. season games two BIG tourney games they have a good shot at making the tournament. After all OSU has wins over Purdue and Bama.
cjb5656
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Those two wins are good, but the B1G is not very good overall and I think they aren’t going to be given their usual benefit of the doubt as a league after the past few years of very poor tourney showings. The Buckeyes have to win the B1G tourney, or win out and lose a close B1G final.
nwwarrior09
Well-known member
Their resume is really rough outside of those two wins...5-10 in the conference, 0 true road wins, 2-6 in "quad 1" games.
If they lose either of the two road games this week (securing a losing season in conference play), they have to win the conference tournament IMO. If they win both of those games en route to winning out the regular season...maybe 2-3 conference tournament wins gets them on the bubble. You could at that point certainly make the argument that "it's a different team" under Diebler's leadership.
oxat622
Well-known member
Two. Dayton and the MAC champ. The only non-Ohio MAC team that has a prayer is Central Michigan, but I don't buy that team, with an overhauled roster, can survive the gauntlet of regulars like Akron, Toledo, OU, Kent with good traveling fan bases in Cleveland.
UC has an uphill battle. They need to protect home court and get at least one road win. Houston looks like a Final Four team, but they can win at TCU. That most likely would end up a Q1 win. Then they need to win a couple in the B12 tourney.
I think Green Bay comes out of the Horizon. Wright or YSU winning it would be a theft.
UC has an uphill battle. They need to protect home court and get at least one road win. Houston looks like a Final Four team, but they can win at TCU. That most likely would end up a Q1 win. Then they need to win a couple in the B12 tourney.
I think Green Bay comes out of the Horizon. Wright or YSU winning it would be a theft.
Stirred not Shaken
Well-known member
If OSU wins 20 games (stretch maybe) they are in. OSU will have wins over Bama, Purdue and a road win at MSU. Plus, Buckeyes bring eyeballs.
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The 20% is basically if they make a big run in the Big Ten tourney. Ohio State has taken too many losses to mediocre teams to merit inclusion in the tournament.
nwwarrior09
Well-known member
They still have a lot of heavy lifting to do down the stretch. They still have the second worst record in the Big Ten, a bunch of losses to very mediocre teams that won't make the tournament including Texas A&M in non-conference play, and that absolutely God awful loss at Michigan who's currently 8-21.
Overall strength of schedule and quality of wins to this point are not all that good. After yesterday they moved up one spot in NET to about 65th. Michigan State has the same overall record (17-12) and still ranked in the top-25 in NET. Buckeyes IMO still need 5-6 more wins to even be a blip on the at-large radar.
nwwarrior09
Well-known member
Ohio State is currently 47th in NET among major conference teams (counting the Big East).
There are 32 auto bids and 36 at-large spots. This year there are probably safely at least 6-7 at-large spots that'll get claimed by non-major conference teams. The Bucks are 20+ teams off the bubble still.
There are 32 auto bids and 36 at-large spots. This year there are probably safely at least 6-7 at-large spots that'll get claimed by non-major conference teams. The Bucks are 20+ teams off the bubble still.
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nwwarrior09
Well-known member
Lunardi currently has Iowa 8 spots outside of the field.
Hawkeyes are six spots ahead of Ohio State in NET, and have two more Big Ten wins, and three more Quad 1 and 2 wins.
Hawkeyes are six spots ahead of Ohio State in NET, and have two more Big Ten wins, and three more Quad 1 and 2 wins.
nwwarrior09
Well-known member
Dayton seems to be slowly sliding towards being a 7 or an 8 seed.
They lost last night on the road at borderline top-100 (NET) Loyola-Chicago in a close one. The Flyers PG (backup, the starter was lost early in the year) went down with a hand injury early and didn't return. If he is done, they effectively have zero PGs and their best ball handler is a combo/scoring guard that I'd consider to be a "shoot first" type of player.
UD now sits at 22-6 with a trip to St. Louis (who's awful) and a home tilt with VCU (top 75-80 in NET) remaining. If the worst occurs with the PG, I imagine they'll end up having a 24-8 type of record and will be a 7 or an 8 as an at-large while Richmond, Loyola, or VCU steals a bid as the A-10 champs.
They lost last night on the road at borderline top-100 (NET) Loyola-Chicago in a close one. The Flyers PG (backup, the starter was lost early in the year) went down with a hand injury early and didn't return. If he is done, they effectively have zero PGs and their best ball handler is a combo/scoring guard that I'd consider to be a "shoot first" type of player.
UD now sits at 22-6 with a trip to St. Louis (who's awful) and a home tilt with VCU (top 75-80 in NET) remaining. If the worst occurs with the PG, I imagine they'll end up having a 24-8 type of record and will be a 7 or an 8 as an at-large while Richmond, Loyola, or VCU steals a bid as the A-10 champs.
nwwarrior09
Well-known member
Dayton with a big overtime win against VCU (borderline Quad 2/3 opponent) to finish the regular season at 24-6. If they can get a win in the A10 tournament, they ought to be safely a 7 seed. If they win three in a row and win the league they ought to go up to a 6.
I didn't realize that not everyone makes the MAC tournament now. 6 of the 8 seeded teams on the bracket at Ohio teams, including the top 3 seeds.
In Horizon League, Youngstown State and Wright State both fell flat early in their tournament.
I didn't realize that not everyone makes the MAC tournament now. 6 of the 8 seeded teams on the bracket at Ohio teams, including the top 3 seeds.
In Horizon League, Youngstown State and Wright State both fell flat early in their tournament.
nwwarrior09
Well-known member
Holmes should be receiving serious All-American consideration, but I imagine he will slide out of consideration some due to the Flyers faltering some late in the year. His stats (20+ ppg, 8 rpg, 2 blocks, 55% FG) should have him as a top 10-15 player in college basketball. Probably should be a 2nd round pick and another UD guy on an NBA roster next year.
At this point UD should just be hoping for a winnable first round NCAA game if Bennett is out. UD IMO probably has 3 more wins (27-3) if they don't lose Malachi Smith at the beginning of the year, and Bennett here down the stretch. Very short rotation with major ball handling question marks without those two.
If the Buckeyes can beat Iowa on Thursday in the B1G tournament and then beat Illinois on Friday, I think they'll have a chance to go dancing. I think they can beat Iowa the way they've been playing lately. I'd love to see Jake get the head coaching position. I think he's gone a heck of a job taking over since Holtman got canned and it would be a shame to have anyone else take over IMHO.