hilliard-city-schools-suspends-all-extracurricular-activities/

psycho_dad

Well-known member
The " and district lawyers" puts it into a completely different category that I do not think of.

What is going to happen to the state budget and school budgets and paying teachers etc...? We need to get a handle on this fast. Can't start back in March. Remember when we had to tell the kids they were going to be off for 3 weeks?

Lawyers... That's where we are?
 

madman

Well-known member
From a practical standpoint, it hard to disagree with the concept of discontinuing extra-curriculars if remote learning for all is required. I wouldn't doubt that some people are going to try to sue because Johnny and Susie are being denied the opportunity to play football or volleyball. That's all school districts need are more lawsuits. It's best to have lawyers involved in these situations now to avoid major problems later.
 

Running Man 101

Active member
From a practical standpoint, it hard to disagree with the concept of discontinuing extra-curriculars if remote learning for all is required. I wouldn't doubt that some people are going to try to sue because Johnny and Susie are being denied the opportunity to play football or volleyball. That's all school districts need are more lawsuits. It's best to have lawyers involved in these situations now to avoid major problems later.
I agree with you. If everyone is remote, it is just a club event at that point.
 

Running Man 101

Active member
I hope teachers are really thinking through this carefully. If everyone sees that they can go to HS and college on-line, many teachers and profs be out of a job. But then it's easier to control the content as well.

The chart below shows everything to date graphed. The impact crater is now declining. About a two week lag, not that anything being done now is data based.

1596069223840.png
 

grange45

Active member
I hope teachers are really thinking through this carefully. If everyone sees that they can go to HS and college on-line, many teachers and profs be out of a job. But then it's easier to control the content as well.

The chart below shows everything to date graphed. The impact crater is now declining. About a two week lag, not that anything being done now is data based.

View attachment 8748
I’m starting to think this is ccrunner609. He stopped commenting on here just when this running man username suddenly appeared again from a long hiatus like a phoenix out of the ashes. There is no way ccrunner could remain silent right now with all that is going on. Lol.
 

Running Man 101

Active member
I’m starting to think this is ccrunner609. He stopped commenting on here just when this running man username suddenly appeared again from a long hiatus like a phoenix out of the ashes. There is no way ccrunner could remain silent right now with all that is going on. Lol.
I'm not. We live about 80 miles apart.
 
Doing some research: As of yesterday there were 3,422 deaths due to covid in Ohio, that is a big number, however does not look as large when you have 11.6 million people in the state of Ohio. Drilling down farther, out of the 3,422 deaths, 2618 were age 70-80+, that is 76.3% of all covid deaths. The age group 0-29 accounted for 10 deaths or .0029%. This tells me older Americans that are in Nursing homes and sadly in poor health perhaps not covid related, when they pass their deaths are counted as covid. Tell me why our kids can not go back to School and participate in sports? 10 deaths out of 11.6 million people, then just how reliable is that 10 count? I call bullshit!
 

pheesh

Active member
Doing some research: As of yesterday there were 3,422 deaths due to covid in Ohio, that is a big number, however does not look as large when you have 11.6 million people in the state of Ohio. Drilling down farther, out of the 3,422 deaths, 2618 were age 70-80+, that is 76.3% of all covid deaths. The age group 0-29 accounted for 10 deaths or .0029%. This tells me older Americans that are in Nursing homes and sadly in poor health perhaps not covid related, when they pass their deaths are counted as covid. Tell me why our kids can not go back to School and participate in sports? 10 deaths out of 11.6 million people, then just how reliable is that 10 count? I call bullshit!
1596122576675.png

That leaves 23.7% of deaths in the 30-69 age range. If you don't care about teachers, then you don't care about schools.
 
Not true, I care about all people. If teachers feel they are at risk or have a compromised immune system allow them to stay home and teach remotely. I strongly agree with the argument giving all teachers hazard pay till we have a vaccine and the virus is under control. just as all law enforcement and first responders should receive the same. This virus is not going away anytime soon, it's simply something we will learn to manage. The kids should not suffer the consequences in the mean time. Young people need to be around and interact with people of their own age. Really upsets me, I had a graduating Senior for the class of 2020, he worked very hard during his high school years, in fact he was valedictorian, completed Basic Combat Training between his Junior and Senior year, played varsity soccer, varsity wrestling, and took many AP classes. He was unable to attend his Prom, unable to walk the stage, unable to have a graduation party. he will rebound, however it will haunt him forever not being able to experience the things he looked so forward to. Now his younger brother is a Senior, has played football for 13 years, looking very forward to his Senior season, might even be a chance for a college scholarship, now his season is in jeopardy. This age group is not in danger of death, or at least very - very low chance. We are taking so much from them, experiences and opportunities they can never get back. So yes, I care about teachers and schools, but I also care about the harm we are doing to our youth. I guess you can go back to the old saying, Your High School Years Are The Best Years Of Your Life, well, I can promise you this, my 17 and 18 year old probably won't be saying that to their kids.
 

Percidae

Member
View attachment 8758

That leaves 23.7% of deaths in the 30-69 age range. If you don't care about teachers, then you don't care about schools.
I like this line of analysis. My wife is a teacher and it is nice to understand the numbers. I have tried to determine the hypothetical impact to teachers due to Covid. My assumptions are that every teacher will end up contracting the disease which is a worste case scenario but possibly not unrealistic. Also this is for a hypothetical teacher population of 100. I obtained the hospilization and death stats from the Ohio Covid 19 web site.
Please check my math.

1596126592079.png

I summary, I compute that for every 100 teachers, 2 will end up being hospitilized for Covid 19 and 0.018 will end up dying from it. So if you had a teacher population of 555, one teacher would end up dying.

Unless there is liability relief legislation that passes congress, I can't see how school boards would be willing to tollerate the fallout from a teacher dying.
 

psycho_dad

Well-known member
There have been 87,893 total cases in Ohio. Of that, 10,533 have been hospitalized. (12%) of the 10,533 that were hospitalized, 3,422 have died. (32%) Or, of the 87,893 cases, 3422 have died. (4%) So, if 100 teachers get it, expect about 4% or 4 to die. 12% of 100 = 12 32% of 12 = 3.84 roundup to 4.

So, if there were 533 teachers that caught it, you could expect 21 dead. A lot of other factors would make that more or less. It seems that the break down of men and women getting the virus is about 50/50. There are about 106,000 public school teachers in Ohio. If 10% contract the virus that would be roughly 10,600. That would be 424 dead. If half the teachers get it, it would be 2,120 dead.
 

CC Track Fan

Active member
View attachment 8758

That leaves 23.7% of deaths in the 30-69 age range. If you don't care about teachers, then you don't care about schools.
14% of that 23.7% is the 60 to 69 age group. There are few teacher that age still teaching and most that are are double dipping so they could just re-retire if they don't want teach and there isn't an online classes to teach. So 60 and under make up about 78% percent of the Ohio population (99+% of those involved in schools) and account for 10% of deaths.

Also a teacher can very easily social distance if they want. Stand in back corner of room when kids come in and out and if that isn't enough put a plexiglass wall up to stand behind while they teach. We need solutions not excuses.

Here is a great letter on why we should have school and sports.

Tennessee High School Football Coach Writes Perfect Letter on Why Kids Need School and Sports
 

CC Track Fan

Active member
There have been 87,893 total cases in Ohio. Of that, 10,533 have been hospitalized. (12%) of the 10,533 that were hospitalized, 3,422 have died. (32%) Or, of the 87,893 cases, 3422 have died. (4%) So, if 100 teachers get it, expect about 4% or 4 to die. 12% of 100 = 12 32% of 12 = 3.84 roundup to 4.

So, if there were 533 teachers that caught it, you could expect 21 dead. A lot of other factors would make that more or less. It seems that the break down of men and women getting the virus is about 50/50. There are about 106,000 public school teachers in Ohio. If 10% contract the virus that would be roughly 10,600. That would be 424 dead. If half the teachers get it, it would be 2,120 dead.
You realized the CDC estimates that 10 to 24 times the people have had CV-19 that reported cases. So even using the low end of 10 right there you can move you decimal point to the left one digit. Now if you age adjusted the the death rate to reflect the age/health of the teaching population that would have even a greater lowering effect on your numbers.

Of course the teachers could just social distance while they teach and there would be zero teacher deaths from CV-19 that was contracted on school grounds.
 

madman

Well-known member
Of course since this situationi started our kids have essentially been isolated. Going back to school is an experiment where we will begin to collect real data on the impact COVID-19 really has on this age group. I am ready to go back to school, but hold no pretense that our current data provides real insight on the impact among school age children. Looking at what's happening in other countries where the level of infection in the community is a small fraction of what it is here in many communities doesn't really help.
 

yj_runfan

Well-known member
I’m starting to think this is ccrunner609. He stopped commenting on here just when this running man username suddenly appeared again from a long hiatus like a phoenix out of the ashes. There is no way ccrunner could remain silent right now with all that is going on. Lol.
I was in West Milton a couple of weeks ago and wondered why he disappeared. I miss him.
 

yj_runfan

Well-known member
I like this line of analysis. My wife is a teacher and it is nice to understand the numbers. I have tried to determine the hypothetical impact to teachers due to Covid. My assumptions are that every teacher will end up contracting the disease which is a worste case scenario but possibly not unrealistic. Also this is for a hypothetical teacher population of 100. I obtained the hospilization and death stats from the Ohio Covid 19 web site.
Please check my math.

View attachment 8762

I summary, I compute that for every 100 teachers, 2 will end up being hospitilized for Covid 19 and 0.018 will end up dying from it. So if you had a teacher population of 555, one teacher would end up dying.

Unless there is liability relief legislation that passes congress, I can't see how school boards would be willing to tollerate the fallout from a teacher dying.
Are you assuming all the teacher CV19 cases would be contracted at school? The chance might increase at school but some are going to catch it whether they are teaching or not.
 

yj_runfan

Well-known member
There have been 87,893 total cases in Ohio. Of that, 10,533 have been hospitalized. (12%) of the 10,533 that were hospitalized, 3,422 have died. (32%) Or, of the 87,893 cases, 3422 have died. (4%) So, if 100 teachers get it, expect about 4% or 4 to die. 12% of 100 = 12 32% of 12 = 3.84 roundup to 4.

So, if there were 533 teachers that caught it, you could expect 21 dead. A lot of other factors would make that more or less. It seems that the break down of men and women getting the virus is about 50/50. There are about 106,000 public school teachers in Ohio. If 10% contract the virus that would be roughly 10,600. That would be 424 dead. If half the teachers get it, it would be 2,120 dead.
Some of those teachers are going to get it outside of school anyway. How can you predict the percentage of cases that will be contracted at school?
 

Percidae

Member
There have been 87,893 total cases in Ohio. Of that, 10,533 have been hospitalized. (12%) of the 10,533 that were hospitalized, 3,422 have died. (32%) Or, of the 87,893 cases, 3422 have died. (4%) So, if 100 teachers get it, expect about 4% or 4 to die. 12% of 100 = 12 32% of 12 = 3.84 roundup to 4.

So, if there were 533 teachers that caught it, you could expect 21 dead. A lot of other factors would make that more or less. It seems that the break down of men and women getting the virus is about 50/50. There are about 106,000 public school teachers in Ohio. If 10% contract the virus that would be roughly 10,600. That would be 424 dead. If half the teachers get it, it would be 2,120 dead.
The reason I broke it down the way I did was to account for the differences in hospitlization and death due to age group. I don't think it is as simple as you suggest because the 4% death rate is heavily weighted to folks over 80 years old. There are no teachers in that age group. So my calculations I believe account for the age group differences in both hospitalizations and deaths.
 

Percidae

Member
Are you assuming all the teacher CV19 cases would be contracted at school? The chance might increase at school but some are going to catch it whether they are teaching or not.
For my analysis, it does not matter how they get it. I made the assumption that all teachers would get it just to present a worste case scenario.
 

Percidae

Member
You realized the CDC estimates that 10 to 24 times the people have had CV-19 that reported cases. So even using the low end of 10 right there you can move you decimal point to the left one digit. Now if you age adjusted the the death rate to reflect the age/health of the teaching population that would have even a greater lowering effect on your numbers.

Of course the teachers could just social distance while they teach and there would be zero teacher deaths from CV-19 that was contracted on school grounds.
You are correct! I forgot to adjust the percentages for the hospitalizations due to the 10-24x factor of real cases. The updated data is below. The summary is also a lot different (off by 10 as you stated).
1596137570018.png

So now the summary is that one out of every 500 teachers would be hospitalized and one out of every 5,555 would die.

A quick google search suggests there are 106,000 teachers in ohio (public only). That suggests there would be 212 hospitlizations and 19 deaths due to Covid 19. Keep in mind again, this assumes 100% of teachers contract the virus.

Anyone care to approximate how may teachers die in a given year commuting to/from school functions?
 

CC Track Fan

Active member
You are correct! I forgot to adjust the percentages for the hospitalizations due to the 10-24x factor of real cases. The updated data is below. The summary is also a lot different (off by 10 as you stated).
View attachment 8771

So now the summary is that one out of every 500 teachers would be hospitalized and one out of every 5,555 would die.

A quick google search suggests there are 106,000 teachers in ohio (public only). That suggests there would be 212 hospitlizations and 19 deaths due to Covid 19. Keep in mind again, this assumes 100% of teachers contract the virus.

Anyone care to approximate how may teachers die in a given year commuting to/from school functions?
Those numbers seem reasonable thanks for doing the calculation. Obviously there is no way 100% will contract the virus so this would be worse case based on YTD deaths. Treatments continue to improve so it is reasonable to assume it wouldn't be even this bad.
 

Percidae

Member
You are correct! I forgot to adjust the percentages for the hospitalizations due to the 10-24x factor of real cases. The updated data is below. The summary is also a lot different (off by 10 as you stated).
View attachment 8771

So now the summary is that one out of every 500 teachers would be hospitalized and one out of every 5,555 would die.

A quick google search suggests there are 106,000 teachers in ohio (public only). That suggests there would be 212 hospitlizations and 19 deaths due to Covid 19. Keep in mind again, this assumes 100% of teachers contract the virus.

Anyone care to approximate how may teachers die in a given year commuting to/from school functions?
Fixing a couple more readibility errors. I also changed the total number of teachers to represent all public school teachers in Ohio (106,000).

1596139588850.png
 

psycho_dad

Well-known member
Percidea: The numbers of estimated people that have Covid does not factor in. That already exists.

<30 16218 teachers of this age. 7% of those will be hospitalized on average. That's 1,135 of that 3 will die.
30-49 57240 teachers. 17% of those would be hospitalized. 9,730 and 2.5% or 243 would die.
*50-59 32542 teachers. 18% of those would be hospitalized. 5,857 and 6% or 351 would die.
* I have no idea how you split 50-54 and 55-69 All the stuff I saw on Ohio's site broke it out in different age groups. I included the data below to sort of show my work.

597 dead if 100% get it. I guess that's possible. If 50% get it, it would be 298 dead. If 25% get it. 149 dead. 10%=59.. But, Look how many would be out hospitalized. Look how many would be out and not be able to go teach? I would hope that the death counts would be less because we are getting better dealing with hospitalizations.

How often does 15% of the teachers in Ohio get hospitalized in one year?

Other things to think about is time frame. How long? For each teacher that dies, another one takes their place and could that replacement also die. Will this cycle through once in 6 months or twice? 3 times in a year? Time is an unknown.

 

Percidae

Member
Percidea: The numbers of estimated people that have Covid does not factor in. That already exists.

<30 16218 teachers of this age. 7% of those will be hospitalized on average. That's 1,135 of that 3 will die.
30-49 57240 teachers. 17% of those would be hospitalized. 9,730 and 2.5% or 243 would die.
*50-59 32542 teachers. 18% of those would be hospitalized. 5,857 and 6% or 351 would die.
* I have no idea how you split 50-54 and 55-69 All the stuff I saw on Ohio's site broke it out in different age groups. I included the data below to sort of show my work.

597 dead if 100% get it. I guess that's possible. If 50% get it, it would be 298 dead. If 25% get it. 149 dead. 10%=59.. But, Look how many would be out hospitalized. Look how many would be out and not be able to go teach? I would hope that the death counts would be less because we are getting better dealing with hospitalizations.

How often does 15% of the teachers in Ohio get hospitalized in one year?

Other things to think about is time frame. How long? For each teacher that dies, another one takes their place and could that replacement also die. Will this cycle through once in 6 months or twice? 3 times in a year? Time is an unknown.

Psycho
Thanks for taking cut at this. I am very interested in coming to a data driven understanding on exactly what the risks are since my wife may have a very important decision to make about returning.. or not. Also, for the record I am using the same data you site.

I don't understand what you mean by "The numbers of estimated people that have Covid does not factor in. That already exists." As "CC Track Fan" pointed out, it is important to include. The point is this. If it was possible to positively identify all cases of Covid in Ohio so far, that number would be at a minimum as of today 896,260 no the 89,620 that is reported. It is well established that we are only finding at most 1/10th of the actual cases. This is due to do most cases being asymptomatic or mild symptoms were folks don't get tested. This changes the denominator when computing the %hospitlizations and %deaths. So instead of 12% hospitalizations across the general population the real rate is 1.2%. And instead of a death rate of 3.5%, it is really .035%.

Let me explain the equations I used for the < 30 age group. 16,218 * 1.2%. This would represent the total hospitalizations of the general population including all age groups. We we are not addressing all age groups, just the < 30 age group. So we need to multiply it by the 7% that represents this age group. 16,218 * 1.2% * 7% = 13.6.

For deaths, lets look at the 30-49 age group because the percentage of <30 dying from Covid is 0%.
57,240 * .35% * 3% = 6.01.

The reason I split the age groups the way I did is that aligns with the age group data for teachers presented by pheesh above in post number 9 of this thread.
 

psycho_dad

Well-known member
Psycho
Thanks for taking cut at this. I am very interested in coming to a data driven understanding on exactly what the risks are since my wife may have a very important decision to make about returning.. or not. Also, for the record I am using the same data you site.

I don't understand what you mean by "The numbers of estimated people that have Covid does not factor in. That already exists." As "CC Track Fan" pointed out, it is important to include. The point is this. If it was possible to positively identify all cases of Covid in Ohio so far, that number would be at a minimum as of today 896,260 no the 89,620 that is reported. It is well established that we are only finding at most 1/10th of the actual cases. This is due to do most cases being asymptomatic or mild symptoms were folks don't get tested. This changes the denominator when computing the %hospitlizations and %deaths. So instead of 12% hospitalizations across the general population the real rate is 1.2%. And instead of a death rate of 3.5%, it is really .035%.

Let me explain the equations I used for the < 30 age group. 16,218 * 1.2%. This would represent the total hospitalizations of the general population including all age groups. We we are not addressing all age groups, just the < 30 age group. So we need to multiply it by the 7% that represents this age group. 16,218 * 1.2% * 7% = 13.6.

For deaths, lets look at the 30-49 age group because the percentage of <30 dying from Covid is 0%.
57,240 * .35% * 3% = 6.01.

The reason I split the age groups the way I did is that aligns with the age group data for teachers presented by pheesh above in post number 9 of this thread.
You are already saying that 100% of teachers are going to get it, so anything above that doesn't matter.

I think we are both wrong, but because we are missing a key percentage. You are probably closer to correct than I am. We need the % of hospitalizations per the age groups. 12% or 1.2% is for 1-109 years old. We would need to know the % of those under 30 that are hospitalized and then the same thing for each of the age groups we are looking at.

The other problems are all these rates could change depending on how many people get sick at the same time. If it's a slow spread, hospitals can handle it. If it's a quick spread, then hospitals could get overwhelmed. See what is happening in other states. We had another pathetic day today for number of deaths as a country.

I go to work everyday. I would think that if she is cautious, she should be ok. Everyone in my family is working. My daughter is a teacher and I'm worried, but only cuz it's my kid. I think she would go back to teach and I wouldn't question that. Just have to do what you can to be as safe as is reasonable.

Sorry, I've been no help. Maybe Mathking will save us.

It also looks like everything is going to remote learning to start.
 

pheesh

Active member
Psycho
Thanks for taking cut at this. I am very interested in coming to a data driven understanding on exactly what the risks are since my wife may have a very important decision to make about returning.. or not. Also, for the record I am using the same data you site.

I don't understand what you mean by "The numbers of estimated people that have Covid does not factor in. That already exists." As "CC Track Fan" pointed out, it is important to include. The point is this. If it was possible to positively identify all cases of Covid in Ohio so far, that number would be at a minimum as of today 896,260 no the 89,620 that is reported. It is well established that we are only finding at most 1/10th of the actual cases. This is due to do most cases being asymptomatic or mild symptoms were folks don't get tested. This changes the denominator when computing the %hospitlizations and %deaths. So instead of 12% hospitalizations across the general population the real rate is 1.2%. And instead of a death rate of 3.5%, it is really .035%.

Let me explain the equations I used for the < 30 age group. 16,218 * 1.2%. This would represent the total hospitalizations of the general population including all age groups. We we are not addressing all age groups, just the < 30 age group. So we need to multiply it by the 7% that represents this age group. 16,218 * 1.2% * 7% = 13.6.

For deaths, lets look at the 30-49 age group because the percentage of <30 dying from Covid is 0%.
57,240 * .35% * 3% = 6.01.

The reason I split the age groups the way I did is that aligns with the age group data for teachers presented by pheesh above in post number 9 of this thread.
From July 16


Still, since estimates of the actual infection and death numbers are far more accurate today than at the beginning of the pandemic, the current estimates of between 0.2 to 1% are better as well. The CDC suggests that an IFR of 0.65% is the current best estimate.
It is important to remember that these estimates of infection fatality rates reflect the risk for the average person. Many people will face higher risk and many will face lower risk.
Older patients or those with preexisting conditions like diabetes, high blood pressure or heart disease are likely at higher risk than the average person. Younger people without significant prior health conditions are at substantially lower risk than the average person. Additionally, access to health care is an important factor in mortality from COVID-19.
Finally, the infection fatality rate is not set in stone—it is an estimate of what happened in the past, not a predictor of what will happen in the future.


EDIT: THIS IS A BAD EXAMPLE DO NOT APPLY IFR BY AGE GROUP
The IFR is the global rate, meaning across the population how many fatalities, accounting for all ages & sex, using an estimate for total infections.

using that as the .2% to 1% range, deaths range from 21 (10% infected,0.2% IFR) to 1060 (100% infected, 1% IFR)


1596160616753.png
 
Last edited:

psycho_dad

Well-known member
From July 16


Still, since estimates of the actual infection and death numbers are far more accurate today than at the beginning of the pandemic, the current estimates of between 0.2 to 1% are better as well. The CDC suggests that an IFR of 0.65% is the current best estimate.
It is important to remember that these estimates of infection fatality rates reflect the risk for the average person. Many people will face higher risk and many will face lower risk.
Older patients or those with preexisting conditions like diabetes, high blood pressure or heart disease are likely at higher risk than the average person. Younger people without significant prior health conditions are at substantially lower risk than the average person. Additionally, access to health care is an important factor in mortality from COVID-19.
Finally, the infection fatality rate is not set in stone—it is an estimate of what happened in the past, not a predictor of what will happen in the future.



The IFR is the global rate, meaning across the population how many fatalities, accounting for all ages & sex, using an estimate for total infections.

using that as the .2% to 1% range, deaths range from 21 (10% infected,0.2% IFR) to 1060 (100% infected, 1% IFR)


View attachment 8792
No argument here. I at least had the 106,000 teachers right. Public schools anyway.
Anyway we look at it, it's too many.
Ohio just had a terrible day for new cases. Florida had another terrible day. Texas had another terrible day.

The bottom line is we are losing! We are the outlier as a country. I am afraid that the numbers are also under reported. Heart Disease and cancer will be the only causes of deaths that are more in the US.

If tests can't be done in under 48 hours, they are useless and labs should not get paid to do them. See how fast they get done then.

Thanks Pheesh.
 

mathking

Active member
Nice job taking a stab at putting some estimates in front of people. Something else to consider when using the mortality data is that there is a lot of evidence that degree of exposure when first infected seems to matter. If you get a high viral load when you get infected you are in more danger. That mostly is a factor of the amount of time spent in contact with the person who infects you. So the amount of time is not just a factor in how likely you are to get infected but in how likely you are to have a serious case. It's why this has been particularly deadly for health care workers, they spend a lot of time in contact with infected people. This will also be a factor for teachers.
 
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