Early State Predictions

 
1. St. Xavier
2. Moeller
3. Hudson
4. Strongsville
5. Solon / St. Francis - to close to call

Agree that SC does not have the individual scorers to crack the top 5.
 
Besides a likely 2 individual wins from Palazzo, they have Brendon Mulcahey (50 free, 100 fly), Cole Clampffer (200 free) from last year. Also, those three were on the 200 free relay that took 5th last year and 400 free relay that took 7th... so they are likely to get good relay points too with another underclassman helping out.

Is Ignatius returing anyone besides Artis from last year's state team? Graduating Nathan Christian and Peter Simcox is going to take its toll. Seems to me that they are likely going to take a step back in 2015.
 
Pete Simcox's brother, Dmitri Simcox, should be a point scorer at state this year, but he is still a sophomore and isn't in his prime yet. I don't believe they will have anyone other than two or three state scorers this year.

Predictions:
X
Moe
Hudson
St. F
Solon
 
You guys are forgetting about UA. Not saying they'll win but expect them in the top 5. This year no relays will be DQed. Reardon & Kibbe will lead the way with the younger talent moving up to replace Trace's points.
 
rjones you are in dreamland (as usual). UA has only Reardon returning for individual points...and he was second heat. Their relays will have to replace 2 seniors on the medley that was second heat, a senior on the 400 relay that finished mid second heat and 3 seniors on the 200 that was DQed on its way to a second heat qualification. Without significant time drops by its returning swimmers, UA will not score in the top 10 at the state meet. They only scored 287 points in the Central District meet last year and will likely not match that point total in 2015. At the district level they could be as much as 100 points behind SC. So open your eyes and face reality. From a team scoring standpoint the Central District will be down this year. It's unlikely that any Central District team will finish in the top 8 much less the top 5 in 2015. SC is the only Central District team that will make a top 10 finish and they will be closer to 10th than 5th.
 
aquacard said:
rjones you are in dreamland (as usual). UA has only Reardon returning for individual points...and he was second heat. Their relays will have to replace 2 seniors on the medley that was second heat, a senior on the 400 relay that finished mid second heat and 3 seniors on the 200 that was DQed on its way to a second heat qualification. Without significant time drops by its returning swimmers, UA will not score in the top 10 at the state meet. They only scored 287 points in the Central District meet last year and will likely not match that point total in 2015. At the district level they could be as much as 100 points behind SC. So open your eyes and face reality. From a team scoring standpoint the Central District will be down this year. It's unlikely that any Central District team will finish in the top 8 much less the top 5 in 2015. SC is the only Central District team that will make a top 10 finish and they will be closer to 10th than 5th.
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:clap:
 
[
aquacard said:
rjones you are in dreamland (as usual). UA has only Reardon returning for individual points...and he was second heat. Their relays will have to replace 2 seniors on the medley that was second heat, a senior on the 400 relay that finished mid second heat and 3 seniors on the 200 that was DQed on its way to a second heat qualification. Without significant time drops by its returning swimmers, UA will not score in the top 10 at the state meet. They only scored 287 points in the Central District meet last year and will likely not match that point total in 2015. At the district level they could be as much as 100 points behind SC. So open your eyes and face reality. From a team scoring standpoint the Central District will be down this year. It's unlikely that any Central District team will finish in the top 8 much less the top 5 in 2015. SC is the only Central District team that will make a top 10 finish and they will be closer to 10th than 5th.
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JoeMontana said:
:clap:
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We'll see who gets the last clap! You all consistently underestimate UA and the way they develop talent - think Huffman, Spangler, and countless others. As they say that's why they swim the meet - think Reardon, Kibbe, Fischer, Hamilton, Watson, Mamo, Gorski, et al. plus some very talented freshmen!! The Bears will surprise all in February!!!
 
rjones said:
[
We'll see who gets the last clap! You all consistently underestimate UA and the way they develop talent - think Huffman, Spangler, and countless others. As they say that's why they swim the meet - think Reardon, Kibbe, Fischer, Hamilton, Watson, Mamo, Gorski, et al. plus some very talented freshmen!! The Bears will surprise all in February!!!
Click to expand...

Not sure about all that... but I am looking forward to the Bears vs Comets Dual this year in Mason. I think Mason is a very senior-heavy team on the boys side and they are going to be too much for a younger Bears side. Should be fun to watch.
 
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I don't know if you have heard already, but moe senior Kevin Michael George will be pursuing his dream in being a star offensive linemen for Moeller's football team. Sources say he will start in tomorrow's game vs. St X. His swimming career may be in jeopardy.
 
rjones said:
[
We'll see who gets the last clap! You all consistently underestimate UA and the way they develop talent - think Huffman, Spangler, and countless others. As they say that's why they swim the meet - think Reardon, Kibbe, Fischer, Hamilton, Watson, Mamo, Gorski, et al. plus some very talented freshmen!! The Bears will surprise all in February!!!
Click to expand...

If UA wins state, I will make a $10,000 donation to the charity of your choice, AND I will loan my private jet to the Make a Wish foundation for any 2 ROUND TRIPS within the continental US.

And, I will make the donations on your behalf.
 
Montana, I never said that UA will win the state this year. My prediction was top 5 which has been unfairly ridiculed...and my point in the last post is that UA has a long history for developing swimmers. When Huffman was a freshman he needed to taper for the sectional meet, 2 years later he's state champ. Same with Spangler who had miserable times at the start but was a state champ before he finished. The talent is there to be developed. Again I'm not predicting a championship (at the state level) but as I said before; the Bears will surprise all the doubters in February!!!

By the way, the charity is the Stefanie Spielman Fund.
 
You are correct rjones that UA has developed talent over the years. But your expectations are misplaced when you suggest that UA will make the top 5 this year. Top 15 probably but not likely to crack the top 10. The reality is that although swimmers will improve ... and we can expect that from UA's swimmers, the entire team will have to have miraculous time drops to finish as highly as you predict. UA appears to have a talented freshman class... but no one who will dominate in the district let alone qualify to the state meet. Individually a successful district meet for UA will qualify Reardon, Kibbe and possibly Fischer to the state along with the relays. Reardon and possibly Kibbe will have an opportunity to score points. The free relays will likely be in the consolation finals while the medley should place in the top 8. The only freshmen for UA in the state meet will be on a relay, if that. Ironically, UA may have a stronger dual meet team (more depth) than last year's, but is a far weaker championship meet team. If the Ned Reeb draws a similar field to last year's UA will finish lower as a team.
 
aquacard said:
You are correct rjones that UA has developed talent over the years. But your expectations are misplaced when you suggest that UA will make the top 5 this year. Top 15 probably but not likely to crack the top 10. The reality is that although swimmers will improve ... and we can expect that from UA's swimmers, the entire team will have to have miraculous time drops to finish as highly as you predict. UA appears to have a talented freshman class... but no one who will dominate in the district let alone qualify to the state meet. Individually a successful district meet for UA will qualify Reardon, Kibbe and possibly Fischer to the state along with the relays. Reardon and possibly Kibbe will have an opportunity to score points. The free relays will likely be in the consolation finals while the medley should place in the top 8. The only freshmen for UA in the state meet will be on a relay, if that. Ironically, UA may have a stronger dual meet team (more depth) than last year's, but is a far weaker championship meet team. If the Ned Reeb draws a similar field to last year's UA will finish lower as a team.
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Very well put...

And compare that to a team like X or st Francis or Hudson.

Not even comparable. . Not even close.
 
aquacard said:
You are correct rjones that UA has developed talent over the years. But your expectations are misplaced when you suggest that UA will make the top 5 this year. Top 15 probably but not likely to crack the top 10. The reality is that although swimmers will improve ... and we can expect that from UA's swimmers, the entire team will have to have miraculous time drops to finish as highly as you predict. UA appears to have a talented freshman class... but no one who will dominate in the district let alone qualify to the state meet. Individually a successful district meet for UA will qualify Reardon, Kibbe and possibly Fischer to the state along with the relays. Reardon and possibly Kibbe will have an opportunity to score points. The free relays will likely be in the consolation finals while the medley should place in the top 8. The only freshmen for UA in the state meet will be on a relay, if that. Ironically, UA may have a stronger dual meet team (more depth) than last year's, but is a far weaker championship meet team. If the Ned Reeb draws a similar field to last year's UA will finish lower as a team.
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At the risk of having to hear more silliness from RJones... I think putting all 3 of UA's relays at State is off the charts generous. How exactly is that going to happen?

I agree that, barring a DQ, the Medley relay will get there and may score very well, however....

The 400 free relay seems likely to get to state (last year it took 3:17.51), and maybe make the consolation final since it just loses 1 swimmer (Newcome, the fastest leg on last year's team). But the 200 free relay team loses 3 seniors and will not have Kibbe or Reardon on it since they will undoubtedly be swimming the 200 Medley Relay. So are we expecting all of the other underclassmen to drop 2 seconds apiece on their 50s to try to meet last year's standard of 1:29.26?!

As a reasonable comparator, Mason's 200 and 400 free relays have a legitimate chance of scoring this year at State (again assuming no DQs) and I think they will crush UA's free relays when they meet this season. I don't see how UA will be scoring points to make the top 10 at State. History clearly tells us that relay points rule and it usually takes final heat scoring in at least 2 relays to be a top 5 team and usually requires top 10 or so scoring in 2/3 relay events to be a top 10 team. If everything goes their way UA may make the top 15 (since the points required drop precipitously after the top 5-10). I don't think UA has the horses this year, but meets aren't swum on paper or in online forums and all of the kids out there will get a chance to exceed expectations when they get in the blocks!
 
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ZfishInMason said:
At the risk of having to hear more silliness from RJones... I think putting all 3 of UA's relays at State is off the charts generous. How exactly is that going to happen?

I agree that, barring a DQ, the Medley relay will get there and may score very well, however....

The 400 free relay seems likely to get to state (last year it took 3:17.51), and maybe make the consolation final since it just loses 1 swimmer (Newcome, the fastest leg on last year's team). But the 200 free relay team loses 3 seniors and will not have Kibbe or Reardon on it since they will undoubtedly be swimming the 200 Medley Relay. So are we expecting all of the other underclassmen to drop 2 seconds apiece on their 50s to try to meet last year's standard of 1:29.26?!

As a reasonable comparator, Mason's 200 and 400 free relays have a legitimate chance of scoring this year at State (again assuming no DQs) and I think they will crush UA's free relays when they meet this season. I don't see how UA will be scoring points to make the top 10 at State. History clearly tells us that relay points rule and it usually takes final heat scoring in at least 2 relays to be a top 5 team and usually requires top 10 or so scoring in 2/3 relay events to be a top 10 team. If everything goes their way UA may make the top 15 (since the points required drop precipitously after the top 5-10). I don't think UA has the horses this year, but meets aren't swum on paper or in online forums and all of the kids out there will get a chance to exceed expectations when they get in the blocks!
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:clap: :clap:
 
X will be at the Ned Reeb again this year. St. Francis, University, Hudson, Solon and St. Ignatius will be there along with St. Charles & UA. Would be really neat if Moeller, Centerville, Oakwood, Hawken and Wyoming would come. Anyway it should be a very fast meet again this year.
 
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