Dublin Coffman Rocks 2020

Well two close calls in the later games wit + 6.5 losing by 7 and the UNDER in the Rams Jets upset special game just staying under the 44.5 as the Jets scored a bit more than I thought and the Rams a bit less, but it cashes just the same . Giants need to be downgraded again as they got caught rushing Daniel Jones into the line-up last week and he was done this week . Browns scoring 20 was more or less a recipe for a Giants cover, but didn't transpire . Eagles hung in well and just never got over the hump unfortunately. College went very well later on { Bama not playing strong defense for the first time was disappointing but sometimes when the pace of the game and the defense gets a bit too comfortable knowing that their offense will score at will giving you a margin for error all night it goes this way . The Patriots - Dolphins Total play that opened up at 42.5 was the play of the weekend as it stayed well UNDER that { closed at 41.5- 41} as Newton continues to struggle and Flores the former DC in NE was likely to defend his old team well , adn we know BB's success going against rookies so it checked every box and cashed a nice sized ticket for us . Good to see old OSU friend Haskins play well and help us get the cover vs Seattle in a game that didn't look good at all early on. Not perfect but a step in the right direction for him .

The Eagles may be went to Hurts a week or so too late as news of Wentz not even practicing well were coming out about a month ago . Wentz may be mentally checked out around then and the play on the field showed this. But he has been the guy and before his injury a couple years ago was playing at an MVP level . Foles got them over the finish line as we know in that shootout win vs .the Patriots . The Eagles have not really handled Winning as well as some other SB champs as they have lost momentum and haven't been really sharp overall the last two years .

Hurts it must be remembered wasn't beaten out by Tua as a result of an extended period of bad play down at Alabama . Hurts and the offense was struggling in that Natty title game vs Georgia and Saban aggressively took action and a chance in bringing in the young gun Tua. At the present moment it looks as if Tua and Hurts are really close in terms of being prospects for long term NFL success. The Eagles were bitten a bit by a couple injury's in the secondary that I knew about but still grabbed the points and almost got there. Wentz to the Colts makes a lot of sense as Old man Rivers just may want to get back towards San Diego soon and his 105 children.. Indy does have an $ kicking O-Line that makes old men not have to wish for younger days, and a very good team so Phillip who I distinctly remember watching as a young pup vs the Buckeyes may stick for a a bit longer. Phillip is no spring chicken so what does that make us who remember him as college player ? Freaking old I suppose lol.

Very solid College weekend and a small win yesterday overall makes it a happy XMAS week in this most trying of all football seasons in every respect . Winning overall feels like a bigger accomplishment this year with all the uncertainty. College hoops is a nightmare to wager on in terms of info and the fluidity of the situation. So really treading lightly there so far but holding my own . Ben treading lighter early for a while now early on in 'normal "years since I realized that winning when conference play is in full swing { Late December through early March} had been my bread and butter for many years as the natural flow , schedule spots and certain coaching match-ups present clearer advantageous situations to exploit.

CFP and the final rankings came out yesterday and of course you can't ignore the top heaviness of CFB basically since the CFB play-off era commenced. It has gotten to the point where it is Alabama and Clemson at a top level with Ohio State just a tad below that as it was clear they were as good as Clemson last year but the last 4-5 the top two has been solidified . The idea that an 8 team team play-off isn't necessary because the top 3-4 aren't going to change at all anyway can be argued against this way. I am for things being INTERESTING , in sports. How can a sport and it's season be more interesting to the public. There is always comfort in NOT changing things for some fans and traditional powers should be embraced somewhat . But I look at it this way . Can anyone tell me that these match-ups based on CFB's final 8 rankings wouldn't be interesting? I mean REALLY interesting? The argument that it is going to come to Clemson - Alabama AGAIN so lets not have some really juicy interesting play-off appetizers


1 Alabama vs 8 Cincinnati - OK from a competitive standpoint ? As you may expect with the 1vs 8 tilt it wouldn't be really competitive over 60 minutes. BUT I would look at it this way . The little guy gets his CHANCE, Is it Rocky Balboa vs. a cocky arrogant Apollo Creed ? Kind of , BUT Saban is such a good coach Bama simply doesn't get too full of itself. But the cry that letting the lesser conference champ in would be heard and that whining would abate after Bama beats them up . Notre Dame is a 20 point Dog vs Bama. I am guessing Cincy would be closer to about 27? BUT you would 't tune in for a bit ? Nick Saban snappishly answering questions about the mismatch nature of the match-up ? I would pay a 5 dollar cover charge to listen to the cranky possibly the greatest college coach in history's answers over the next week. Ohio State guy Fickell being asked if this is more satisfying than being the OC in Ohio State's CFB playoff appearances ? Of course it is . Luke and his team may only bring five smooth stones to this fight vs Goliath , , but fight they would with a defense that isn't scared of anyone .


2 Clemson vs 7 Florida - You would also tune into this one and for a lot longer as Florida would be able to SCORE on Clemson . Florida inexplicably losing to LSU makes this delicious quarterfinal possible. Back in 2014 a bad loss on a very rainy windy night to Centerville in week 10 pushed the Coffman - Wayne match-up earlier than it should have been and the game more like a state quarter of Semi final game played in round two. It was shootout in a game featuring double digit D-1 players that was very competitive .This would be like that . Scoring , talent , NFL guys , and a game along the lines of a Bama Florida game we just saw. Delicious as a Po Boy at Crabby Jack's in NO or a Lobster roll at the Clam Shack in Kennebunk Maine { Ask the Bush family } Dan Mullen would stop whining. Two NFL QB's{ Trask will be a high pick } including the top rated QB coming out of college since Andrew Luck ? Dabo with his mighty attempts of conjuring up ways of how his juggernaut is being disrespected ? Throw in a bowl of Legal Seafoods clam chowder.


3 Ohio State vs 6 Oklahoma - Are you freaking kidding me? This wouldn't grab anyone's attention ? I would even seek out obnoxious Skip Bayless's thoughts through the next week anticipating this one . Rubber match .OSU beats down OU in Norman in 2016 , and Oklahoma returns the favor with Baker planting the flag in Columbus the next year . Blue bloods , two QB's that many of us saw featured when they were in High school on QB1 on Netflix ? One the extremely cocky uber talented Rattler , and the more humble more physical Fields , both sure fire high draft picks ? Oh but why tune in because Alabama is going to win it all anyway playing Clemson again ? Are you kidding me? Two younger coaching stars and top recruiters in the college game with Day having a bit more to prove?

4 Notre Dame vs. Texas A'm - Two coaches who have brought their teams to this level { Fisher at FSU } , A very interesting QB match-up with Intriguing Kellen Mond that many NFL draft Pro's liken to Dak Prescott coming out of Miss State ? Enough size, great athlete { Probably more athletic than Dak} with some bouts of inconsistency in his college career but ascending a bit and will probably be helped and drafted higher off iof Dak's overall play in the league? Ian Book a true professional college QB , one of those guys who makes you kind of forget who came before him as the Irish QB? Record production , but some NFL scouts see only 6 foot , with happy feet in the pocket and just an average arm ? Book is actually pretty athletic , not in the Kellen Mond vane but quick and capable of making some plays with his feet . A two game run in the play-off showing his stuff just may sway some on the fence and Book who is projected as a later round guy 5-7 , may be be willing to grab in round 4? Bottom line is it's an interesting QB match-up, a good coaching match-up and well IT'S NOTRE DAME which elevates any TV number and A'M will be rewarded for closing well in the top college conference .

Yeah these match-ups would be a waste of time and uninteresting because Alabama or Clemson are likely to be left standing in a couple weeks? This type of play-off lineup wouldn't be a positive development in a college football landscape that makes the tides seem somewhat unpredictable in comparison ? March Madness is always a bit more interesting in the earlier rounds mostly involving teams that have little to no chance at even getting to the final four never mind winning the whole shebang. Why wouldn't or couldn't this work really well ? These match-up would be flat out interesting . Are you going to argue that they are not ?
 
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Merry Christmas to all . Enjoy the time with family. Trying year to be sure but also a great time to count your blessings . Thanks for the warm wishes from those in the Rocks family and beyond . 2021 is going to be a better year win or lose because we will back with the rest of our communities supporting the teams en masse . God bless .
 
Harrycrane said:
Merry Christmas to all . Enjoy the time with family. Trying year to be sure but also a great time to count your blessings . Thanks for the warm wishes from those in the Rocks family and beyond . 2021 is going to be a better year win or lose because we will back with the rest of our communities supporting the teams en masse . God bless .
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Happy Holidays Harrycrane
 
Three Saturday NFL games on a rare sunny day in late December in Ohio . A couple low level bowls as well so something for most . Only game I have been involved in went well as BYU under a TD [ got at - 5 } over Central Florida was what I thought a steal . BYU was priced based on losing to Coastal Carolina it seemed . That was a unique situation to say the least and BYU was the team that traveled on late notice. The fans were a factor in that one which is a rarity this year obviously . BYU strength up front was the difference . Forced some mistakes , took away from time and space and took advantage and cruised. Speaking of CC , they play Liberty today and that's a game I am definitely taking a close look and could be the second paly of the bowl season .

NFL weekend got off to a good start with fading Minnesota and their banged up defense getting foot stomped by NO {- 6.5} . Brees looked old last week , but he got that out of the way and looked better off of his rib injury , shaking some rust off . It must be said I haven't seen a team less interested in tackling people and sticking their nose in , in a long while. They didn't even bother to mail this performance in on defense . They could sent out some clones and ;pylons and done nearly as well . Tampa Bay is going to the moon after opening at 7.5 is now up to 12 !!!. Got them at 8.5 early teasing it{ 6.5 pts} with Pittsburgh + 1 which I like quite a bit. Steelers looking a big ragged lately but they should stay within one score here.


Looking forward to this one along with watching Miami -Raiders and Seattle - LA Rams. Baltimore - NY Giants is kind of interesting as well.
 
--CC- Liberty game was good entertainment and a good result as the game coming down to a few plays at the end was almost inevitable and grabbing points was the way to go . felt great at 14-3 in the 2nd , but Coastal obviously has a lot of heart and came back strong . Line went down to 6.5 but grabbing the full TD and hook { 7.5 } was a great value. One nice bowl game handicapping tool can be going against the team that is disappointed in the having to play in the game where they are slotted. Like a Georgia say blowing that lead vs Bama in the SEC title game and going through the motions unable to get up in the game they did have to play { Not the Play-off obviously } and Texas beating them , or a team like CC who had loftier ambitions after winning all of games including a fairly highly regarded ranked BYU team . I didn't think CC would mail this in by any means , but I did think the chip on the shoulder aspect was now gone vs. this opponent and that they may be a bit disappointed and not razor sharp and that Liberty feeling slightly disrespected possibly off of CC's disappointment would come out strong and play with a bit more passion .

Exciting game , and nice win for Liberty. In the NFL as you reach the last 3-4 week some teams are want I call tent folders , they are packing it in and kind of checked out mentally and physically .. Minnesota obviously was one of those teams where they have their worst defense in a while and were a bit short as well. Young in some key spots . NO playing without key receivers was still able to predictably run the ball well with may be the most versatile back in the league Kamara .

Tampa stock is exploding right now and yesterday's offering went through the roof starting at 7.5 ending at 12 . Great win for them as they are peaking perhaps at the exact right time. May be it's the competition lately? Detroit kind of took their best shot at Green Bay two weeks ago and lost with Stafford getting banged up but still trying to play the last two weeks but was clearly not himself. We went against them last week vs Tennessee as swell. Their defense like Minnesota's in subpar and was banged up and they got gashed early and often yesterday . Wish the straight play was larger , but also have the teaser with Pittsburgh + 1.5 teased to over a full TD to add to the TB based win total. Detroit coaching situation is now a factor as playing for [against the former coach , it was his fault } that cause has dissipated .

The Jets to their credit haven't quit, but their expectations were so low that there isn't this malaise now that there isn't much to play for . Although the fans want losses of course to get the top pick . Best spot is trade the number two for a handful of picks or a couple picks and an established veteran or two to a team desperate for the number two pick . Darnold is a franchise QB if he has any support . Has Jax quit ? They lost a tough one by three on the road to Minnesota a few weeks ago and then got blown out twice after that? Now catching 8 at home vs the Bears? Happy for Mitch Trubisky who has played well the last couple weeks . Should they be laying 8 on the road though. Can Atlanta be reasonably expected to give it all they got today vs. KC after blowing yet another large lead ?

I have said that they haven't fully gotten over that incredible choke job in the SB vs. the Patriots as a franchise . They continue to be a sieve on defense when they get a lead even now a few years after the fact . KC simply has stopped putting teams away and they aren't covering the last month and a half . Atlanta is catching 10.5-11 here . Teasing KC has helped a bit and again they have stopped putting teams away . KC teased { 6.5} to under the key numbers 6 and 7 to win by at least a TD , with Baltimore - 10 down to under 4 . Ravens are teetering on the play-off bubble and the Giants are fading badly . Averaging 12 points a game the last 4 .
Ravens flat at -10 is a decent play as well but I really like this teaser play a lot . KC is due for a straight out cover but little trust so tread lightly .

A couple played earlier this week

Chargers - 3 over Denver - trends say Denver, but fundamentals say Chargers who are playing fairly well and I think Denver may be still hung over from the beat down last week at home . LAC with a bit of momentum off of two wins and a rookie QB who is hot is enough for a close win .

UNDER 45.5 Pittsburgh - Indy - now at 43.5 ,. I like a close game which is why I have Pitt t plus more than a TD in the teaser with Tampa who already won yesterday. Liked this one right away and 45.5 was a great value. Struggling a bit on offense but still a solid defense . Pitt really needs this win .
 
Washington QB situation is murky [Haskins dumb and Smith health } Browns receiving situation is a total mess { Covid protocol} but it is what it is in this hazy season . Browns down to a - 6.5 . Left tackle also out for Browns [Willis} . Jets are the Jets. Browns run it early and often ? Play defense . Punt when in doubt . Weather not too bad for this time of year . Wind not a major factor , but Have to think this one is ugly so

UNDER 44 - Heading down already and could plunge lower before 1.00 pm . Browns grind out a win say 23-17 ?

Washington - 1 Carolina - Skins errr , Football team smell play-offs , this is a tough minded group mentally. Had every reason to be discouraged and lay down a bit vs. Seattle , but responded with a 90+ yard drive to get back in it and eventually covered for us . Rivera has some incentive here , WFT has a stout front 7 and can dictate some things here . Haskins looks like he may go and he is capable at times in getting it done. Won't have to deal with Seattle's resurgent ;pass rush this week . WFT receivers have a good day?

Houston - 7 { -120} Over Cincinnati - Bengals off of HUGE win vs. Steelers , spent some needed emotional and physical capital on a Monday night and won't have enough here to keep up for 60 minutes . Watson is the difference maker here and Johnson is producing as an all purpose back . QB match-up , short week for Bengals , and lack of enough gas in the tank = Houston 31 Cincy 16?

Teased these two as well . Houston just needs to win outright , Washington getting some points as a 1 point favorite. In other words I believe if they lose it's really close .
 
Shame on Houston {JJ Watt's impassioned rant was gold} making Cincy look like Bill Walsh's 49Ners offensively , Dwayne Haskins may not get another chance ANYWHERE . The officiating was atrocious across the board [ Roughing the passer is a joke , PI is worse , games are over officiated and it takes away from the product big time } and some teams actually stepped up and showed some pride .


Kansas City scoring only 10 points until the end was surreal , although Atlanta it must be said will be the BEST 12 loss team I have ever seen in the NFL . I watched bits and pieces of this one along with most others and they looked legit . KC is getting too cute , coasting , their defense Allowing Matt Ryan to basically complete every pass for over three quarters and ending with a 121 Passer rating and 8.6 and attempt is a problem . Now they might be good enough to beat most teams as it is , but this act can't be sustainable through raising the gold trophy with confetti raining down around them can it? I say no . This living on the edge every week is going to end if they don't fix a few things { What was Watkins throwing a pass for?} Can't beat 4-11 Atlanta by a TD at home ? OK .

Washington and Haskins did just enough to lose the game . That weird fumble recovery to open the scoring was surreal. 100 yards more offense , but a minus 2 turnover margin was the difference. Dallas was the worst team in the division and now look like the best? Interesting last weekend .

Saints and Bucs got us off to a very good start , with Pittsburgh coming back to hit that teaser play along with TB was nice after they couldn't play dead for almost 3 quarters. LA Chargers opened at 2.5 went to three then back to 2.5 later before KO, so that was a nice surprise for us , grabbing that - 2.5 late . Disappointing that - 3 play pushed after being up 10 entering the 4th though. Nice to be able to grab the - 2.5 though so a win and push there. Ravens were may be going to be the best team not to make the play-offs in a while and they could have thanked the Raiders for choking that Miami game away on Saturday. They got the help they needed , took care of business and will beat Cincy and make it in .

Cleveland sleepwalking early , blowing coverages on defense, and playing a sloppy mess of a game late by fumbling twice was typical Cleveland I suppose . Loved the under and while the officiating and short fields as a result of turnovers made more points possible, it stayed UNDER . Good win . Pittsburgh not playing better on defense was disappointing in losing that UNDER opinion and they certainly got the benefit of the doubt from the Zebras late adding more points . Browns losing their receiving corp. and still throwing 53 times was unsound perhaps but they simply couldn't run the football well enough after being able to run it pretty well all season. Beating a Pittsburgh team who has not much to play for should be doable when they get back some of their guys. Starting left tackle and and a guard on the O-line didn't help either . Baker two turnovers and several high throws and misses was unfortunate, but in a game like this with a depleted offensive cast and Baker not real accurate , it would have bene nice if the defense didn't give up as many big plays to a team like the Jets .

Ravens were in control throughout but didn't really end the game very smoothly . Nice win though and only have to beat Cincinnati next Sunday in Cincy to make it . They will beat them because they are playing really well right now and will play some defense unlike Houston who laid down like a dog .


Early action next week .

Indianapolis - 13.5 over Jax - It's risen a bit in some locales to 14- 14.5 . Colts have to WIN and they need either Browns Dolphins Titans or Ravens to lose . So a shot . ESPN's Football Power Index gives them a 80 percent chance of gaining entry to Tournament { HOF coach Bill Parcells word for the play-offs } Indy boat races feeble Jax something like 38 -14 .

Dallas - 2.5 { moved fast} Over NY Giants - Dallas is a flat out a better team right now, averaging 35 a game the last 3 whereas the Giants are averaging 9 points the last three. Cowboys averaging 25 a game over the last 7 weeks which will be enough to beat this team . 27- 20 seems reasonable here. Giants were who we though for a few weeks , then came on and were better than that , but have clearly regressed to what they probably really are, which is very limited on offense to the point where even being fairly good defensively and pretty well coached are not good enough to win most weeks. Averaging 16 points last 7 ballgames . Opined earlier in the year that Dalton may be the best back-up in the league , and he wasn't quite than and then got hurt. Lately? He kind of is right now. Elliott running for 100 was a welcome sign as well . Hurts wasn't good enough to offset an Eagles defense that got gashed by a QB who ended the game with a 134 PR. HUGE game for Mike McCarthy and the boys to be still be alive when the WFT plays Philly in the late game .If Dallas wins needs the Eagles to beat the WFT to get in . Giants have same incentive , but right now look incapable of beating most NFL teams. How they won that Seattle game seems more curious by the day .
 
Is the Patriots dynasty over? It can end quickly. Of course Brady left but the team was regressing a little bit last year . They were just OK later in the season. Lost to Miami at home and then got dumped at home in the play-offs on the opening weekend which they hadn't had to play in for quite a while before that.

Covid is a real thing and dynamic here as they had guys opt out , some leaders , some productive players. Hasn't worked out well . So I give them a year here and we will see what's up next year. Now that being said, Brady void is very real and Bill B is getting up there. Last night was ugly . Perfect confluence of a high flying Bills team gaining confidence , and a beaten down Pats team with nothing to play for . First Pats home game in TWENTY YEARS not to have some kind of play-off implication for them ? Let that sink in . Also it's been almost that long since they got swept by any divisional opponent . Absurd.

My daughter texted me yesterday and asked " What did Haskins do? in reference to the news that a QB picked in first round pick was waived after only two years . So i thought about it for a bit and then texted back something to the effect that the guy was immature and it wasn't just about this latest strip joint thing. His immaturity was apparent from day one down there. Even Urban Meyer opined a few times in public that he wasn't quite ready to assume the franchise QB role just yet. I figured it was because he has only started one year in college and didn't have the reps . There is some data that suggests that number of college starts is a factor in future NFL success. But I think it's also apparent that he was also thinking about overall maturity without saying it. This coupled with his inconsistent play on the field doomed him . Of course some of the talk concerning him was he was a sometimes later to arrive and quick to leave guy . Most of us have run into this guy at work at some point. Questionable work habits , smart and talented but not exactly a grinder .

QB's cannot be this type of employee and sustain success within that organization. Other guys and QB's are more what I call 'Wallpaper guys " I have called some people this over the years. They come early , stay a bit late and always seem to be there in the middle of the action . They become wallpaper , they are almost never absent. I stole the line from ' Goodfellas " one time and said to a person or two over the years , if you stay anohter minute you'll become that stool over there ".

I also thought that Haskins was one of those guys who did some of the work as a younger kid in High school honing his craft with the aim being recruited to good D-1 programs . he accomplished that . he got that and eventually became the starting QB over a kid named Joe Burrow . He wins again . Becomes a bit satisfied after playing well enough to be regarded a first round pick in the NFL draft . Of course he checks a lot of boxes as well . Size , arm , can make all the throws. Started only one year though. But the iron was hot , so he struck out on the NFL draft path .

First round pick and not only that , picked by his hometown team . He wins again . This is where I believe the train comes off of the tracks in terms of his mindset. He feels that he has MADE it . In some ways of course he HAS made it. His journey has been successful and he cashes in . He then has a less regimented life style like every young adult after they leave college and home in general . He doesn't handle this well . He stops the real grind . He has made it , he is full , why keep being hungry? His immaturity becomes almost glaring to those in the organization . They can't ignore it . You can't just tell someone to have real passion , to want to be the best . His development slows and his play becomes uneven.


He screws up another time or two and he's in real trouble inside the organization .The organization who is trying to make a rare play-off run has seen enough. It's over . The strip joint escapade was his Daniel Hillard 'Having a birthday in the house moment" , except he was given ONE more chance to get his chit together. He failed . If Daniel was given another chance he would have inevitably screwed up again given some time probably quitting a good job or something. Then again may be that last chance was nothing but a short reprieve based on need . OK Daniel take the kids camping as I stay home and make money for the family. Miranda knows all along that no matter what her mind has been made up anyway. She doesn't love Daniel anymore and the Football team has more than fallen out of love with Dwayne . Hopefully he gets another chance .

Oklahoma State - 1.5 is going to beat Miami - Canes defense is suspect as it is and a couple guys opting out which is very much in fashion . that trend had been rising the last few years but is now a very acceptable practice for obvious reasons. Two key guys from a suspect defense = what I think will be at least 35 Cowboy points . OSU stud receiver Wallace IS PLAYING . He was a doubtful participant but will suit up one more time for his school and I believe he as about 125 receiving yards written al over him? Miami runs the full spread for the first time and OSU has seen this up close most of the year and will be prepared. OSU offense will get rolling downhill at some point and cover this short number at some point and win the football game. I think that 62 points and 750 yards allowed to UNC will linger just a tad and now having two guys sit out ? Not good



Texas - 7.5 to 8 should rollover Colorado - pretty hot team that is at another level than Colorado is . I also played a teaser with the Longhorns { down to - 1.5 } with Wisconsin - 7.5 over Wake Forest { down to -1.5 { 6 point teaser} Wisky will wear down Wake at some point and win. Still looking at the game from a straight play . Game is tomorrow .
 
The Florida - Oklahoma game pretty much perfectly encapsulates the Covidness if you will of the college football season. Wild line swings , guys being ruled out , opted out , and Covid positive out. Florida like Cleveland on Sunday will be without their best 4 receivers a couple secondary guys and a TE that was a huge problem for Alabama . Pitts will be a first rounder . Oklahoma is going to be missing a few guys but the scope of their shorthandedness pales in comparison as the line swing of Florida - 3 all the way to Oklahoma - 3 suggests.

Now I wish I had taken the three with Okie at this point , but it wasn't known that Florida would be missing this many for this game . I didn't think it was a great play at that price point with the information we had. On Monday as the news starting trickling out and the line started moving , I grabbed Oklahoma at - 3 thinking that without that many guys a Florida team that wasn't that much better than Oklahoma if both were fully healthy , the pendulum swayed towards Oklahoma for me and laying a FG with the personnel that will be on the field was a GOOD VALUE. Well even if it loses the VALUE will have been there as we see the line move towards 5 to 5.5 at this point.

The last say 6 weeks , I would argue that Oklahoma is playing as well or better than anyone not named Alabama or Clemson ? We saw what our strong play on Texas did last night and Okie was a bit better than them earlier in the year in their win and is BETTER at this point . Best CB Brown is out for Okie , but that isn't as much an issue with all the Florida targets missing.

Trask is an elite college QB and arm talent. Florida is Florida and has some depth of talent and it won't be like a HS team playing their JV starting line-up if devastated by a a rash of injury's at the skill positions. SEC is the best conference no question, but it isn't as dominating in terms of their top 3-4 teams being able to beat everyone else's best team in their conference . I do believe the current line movement towards 5-6 is accurate and I am happy I got the - 3 .

OU QB Spencer Rattler is legit , many of us were introduced to him on the Netflix QB-1 . Cocky athlete with a whip like arm , special touch , and I think he can make plays against this defense which has been suspect at times this season. One thing to give up big points and yards to Alabama , and another thing to have LSU run up big points with a true Frosh QB and without their go to receiver on a team that lost as much talent as anyone in the country { LSU}. Personnel match-up is favorable, mind set and motivation ? Oklahoma with the better one . Florida has no momentum { coming off of two losses } has lost more guys , and Oklahoma has a lot of momentum and confidence. Okie by a touchdown or more here . Laying the 5 to 5.5 is fair and i think they cover that , but I am happy to have gotten the three .


We have Wisconsin in the teaser with Texas who has cashed the straight play easily as you know. Wisky just has to win by one here. Not sure if I am going to lay what is now up to 9- 9.5 ? Hmm . Wish I had gotten that earlier 7 but with the Wisky QB situation murky over the last week or so and their lack of scoring for most of the season ? I didn't do it but I was reasonably confident that the Badgers would win by at last a FG with the teaser . Another QB-1 alum Sam Hartman who has done well overall at Wake is the starting QB. He overcame some hardships in his career in HS and ended up following his coach from North Carolina to the South Carolina low country for his Senior year at a small Christian school that was just a couple years into their program.

Going to go ahead and grab In Thursday's action

Tulsa - 2.5 over Mississippi State- - Simple case of one team being happy to be here and the other not really feeling it . MSU is depleted , their coach is 4-11 ATS in bowl games . This game isn't going to motivate his team or him most likely . Tulsa is 4-1 as a Favorite this year and has gone up against and done pretty well vs pass " mostly" spread it out teams. Nevada being the best parallel , where Tulsa held Nevada to 20 points. SEC bottom teams are nothing special really and MSU fits that description.{ 3-7} Tulsa will be more motivated to beat an SEC team that MSU is to NOT losing to Tulsa and they are actually equipped to do so from a personnel standpoint . Tulsa by a full score and change?
 
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On a little bit of a roll in CFB , Oklahoma was excellent and beat up a severely shorthanded Florida team. Line was all over the place flopping around as if Sir Larry Wildman was pulling some strings like he did that day in 1987 with Bluestar Airlines. Florida opened - 3 the price went all the way to Oklahoma - 8.5 before settling at 7.5 at most places . The game was drama free and over in less than a hiccup. 17-0 before Spencer Rattler broke a sweat. Florida coach Dan Mullen was talking about how he could have just not shown up with his team with so many players being out . How would we have known the difference? Gator defenders didn't seem particularly interested for much of the night. Might as well asked if they could play 7 on 7 flag football .

Okie wasn't great at times and Florida moved the rock at times but three Trask picks early put an end to the proceedings . Nice win for us . I'll take it. Giving up 435 rushing yards is the most disturbing evidence of a team even being a bit shorthanded { More on offense actually} not playing balz out , not really sticking their noses into the fray, not really willing to sacrifice their bodies in the way you need to in order to compete at a higher level. Mullen was a human excuse Pez dispenser after the game. Could have just said that while it was tough sledding going against a very good team in this circumstance , we made too many mistakes early and our effort wasn't where we needed it to be . Then give Okie some credit and shut up. The best leaders and coaches DON'T MAKE EXCUSES in general . Mullen to me is a really solid offensive mind , but as a HC? He may not have what it takes to be great .

Wisconsin also got there for us , getting a margin with turnovers and a blocked punt. Game was very competitive with Wake holding the lead for a nice portion of the first half and change. Quickly changed and Wisky took full advantage of the Wake mistakes and created some of them as well . Got the 3 TD lead and coasted .


San Jose State can win it's first conference title in almost 30 years. Can achieve it's first undefeated season since World War 2 . The program is on a serious roll . 6-0-1 against the spread , have won 4 games as underdogs and have beaten a couple good football teams in Air Force and San Diego State , but there best effort was against Boise State where they really limited the Boise offense and got the upset in the conference title game Really controlled the action throughout . Just under 500 yards offense while limiting Boise to 225 . Ball State rode a 28 point 2nd quarter to it's improbable MAC title beating Buffalo for the crown. Buffalo would match-up better here . Ball State defense is very suspect overall. SJSU can throw the rock with QB Starkel a former Texas A'm recruit finally hitting his stride in his third stop { Arkansas was his second} . Starkel has 16 TD throws with only 4 Picks and a very impressive 9 yards an attempt.

BSU defense gives up 28 a game 445 yards including just under 300 a game through the air. Look for Starkel and his receivers to get loose here and get a somewhat comfortable win .SJSU has played a higher level of competition and matches up very well personnel wise.


San Jose State - 9.5 OVER Ball State -
 
Happy New Year to all . Rocks and other programs starting up their winter programs { Steel , speed , agility , skill work etc.} and lets hope the New year brings some normalcy as we get through these next couple trying months of the once in a century pandemic . Hope the Seniors get some normal activities as we get towards Spring .

I had said that the Oklahoma - Florida kind of encapsulated the bowl season in the age of Covid. Well we benefited in that one where they information was coming in late and the line moved 10-11 points through the week or so. Got all the way to Okie - 8.5 . The real fundamental line at that point with all the Florida info coming out was probably closer to about 11-12 . The lines-makers can'[t open themselves up to the " middle " possibilities so it went to 8.5 and they go what they wanted at that point and got money on Florida at + 8- 8.5 and it dipped back towards 7.5 . Easy win for us .

Now yesterday another game that pretty much sums this most different and difficult of seasons happened and it wasn't a good result. San Jose State a 9-5 favorite had all the fundamentals going for them through the week . The one piece of information I did have was the fact that SJSU gave the kids the week off sent them back to San Jose for the Christmas . They came back to practice on Monday . I though the time off wasn't going to be a deal breaker. Well it might not have been but then yesterday right before KO a couple things happened . SJSU was going to be without 6 starters total including the conference player of the year . They also announced that the offensive and defensive coordinators wouldn't be with the team .

On their first offensive snap they lost their stud tight end as he got hit low slipped up in the air adn landed on his head . he was gone after one play . Mix in a pick 6 , 4 turnovers , a blocked punt and a shanked punt, and a 27-0 FIRST quarter deficit thanks for coming and thanks Covid, game over .

In the other game we had the right side with Tulsa , who had 200 more total yards and were a bit snakebit . Key play was mid to late 3rd quarter Tulsa down one point was driving deep into territory when they threw a pick that was returned 91 yards for a TD , a crippling 10-14 point swing . Tulsa lost the turnover battle and really outplayed the bulldogs but couldn't finish things and made a couple too many mistakes .

Been a good bowl season so far though as we had a nice handful of wins in a row before yesterday and up for the year overall in this tough year. You want to get good prices early but you chance late information coming out and in a couple games I was able to get that info early enough to play the other side at another locale to void the original play when really important information came out. Couldn't do that yesterday obviously. NFL teams announcing who they are playing and not playing this week has made some potential plays change complexion . Still like Dallas and their momentum vs Giants lack of mo , and the Colts to win by at least 2 TD's .


Still looking at the other three games today but I already got Northwestern at - 3 on Monday night where the loine stayed into Tuesday where it is now 3.5- 4 . No need to void this one as information didn't come to change the opinion.

Coaching situation at Auburn is obviously in flux with the firing of Malzahn . Auburn line-up is a bit more depleted as well. The crux of the play is the coaching situation and the fact that Fitzgerald always has his guys ready to play . The loss to OSU wasn't crushing as it was a gradual wear down and they know they don't match -up with OSU for 60 minutes. This club as constituted they do match up well with and the defense will compete well . Auburn is 0-4 against the spread vs wining teams this year . Northwestern is 4-0 in this situation. total is low at 43.5 and this has the makings of a grinder type of game. No best bet like level but Cats probably win and cover this type game about 65 percent of the time IMO which makes it a go. Coaching stability in this type of game .


Tulsa and MSU game embarrassed college football yesterday. Disgraceful behavior by both teams but from what I saw MSU was more punkish . Their QB was jabbering non stop from before the game till the end .MSU I figured wasn't jazzed at 3-7 going to this game , but obviously their coaches got them fired up to an extent but it came off of punkish and dirty . Tulsa was the better club but the rainy sloppy conditions made it a a more plodding ugly game .but Tulsa still put up some big yards through the air and controlled the action more of the time , BUT big plays { 91 yard pick 6 } and some good bounces helped the Bulldogs a bit . The play on the field and the behavior throughout should have doomed MSU and prevented them from winning , but the wrong team and the bigger $ hat team got the W. Mike Leach is a renegade quirky type coach but he needs to get a handle on this program next year or it will be another subpar record and if the behavior is questionable he will be fired early on.
 
As much as I want to see Coach Fickell and Cincinnati get a huge bowl win here , the bottom line is they just don't have enough here to get a win .They may keep it relatively close because they play very good defense and will push Georgia . The key to this game and Georgia's improved offensive play is QB JT Daniels who is a beast . he got beaten out by Kaden Slovis at USC , But I think in the end he will be the better QB going forward. It's close , but I think he is a really interesting prospect and athlete . Cincy has the boys up front to play with Georgia and will battle. Georgia has the better talent and more NFL bodies as expected and it should be enough to get the victory.

I Didn't play it straight as the line was at 8.5 { now at 9-9.5 } but played it in a teaser with Texas A'm who plays tomorrow against a kind of depleted defensively challenged UNC team . A'm and is laying 7.5 as well . That game may be a straight play as well . If we lose this and Cincy wins it outright? I'll take the loss and be happy for them . But I think Georgia grinds out anohter win for the SEC with Daniels making a couple plays in the second half .
 
Well that was quite a performance to say the least , but was it that shocking? Surprising ? Yes . Shocking ? No . Some Covid dynamics involved in the game to be sure , from the amount of games played by each team , to the coach under ranking his opponent due to the lack of games played, to certain players not being there and Clemson's OC missing the game.

Waiting till a little while before KO to make sure no other 'News" came out , and having a couple weeks to digest this match-up from many angles , what kept coming back to me was these teams are pretty even . Last year's game was not an example of Clemson just having a bit too much talent speed and match-up advantages. What happened was pretty simple. OSU moved the ball better but didn't finish well at all . 16-0 could have been or probably should have been 27-0 or so . It was that much an early smackdown by OSU.

Then the targeting call that kept a drive alive, caused and ejection of a top cover guy { Wade was awful last night by the way , he looked tentative, not confident , got turned around like a top a couple times , played soft and was a non factor , if not a liability. he better get his head on straight the next 9-10 days } , a couple big plays , a couple of bad calls { one taking an OSU TD away} and voila Clemson was ahead somehow late. Fields is poised to lead the team to the game winning TD, has some time , steps up , moves a bit in the pocket and rifles a rope to the post where he thinks Olave will be , except that Olave thinks Fields was starting to scramble an dhe starts to adjust his route . Pass goes right to a Clemson safety . Ballgame.


Up front it was competitive , Fields performed well and is in Lawrence's orbit as a talent. Skill guys were fairly equal and this year they are as well. RB for Clemson much more accomplished career wise but Sermons had the sudden hot hand and was hungry. 7.5 was a good value and I figured the game would come down to the last drive again . Even cashing the ticket , I was wrong . Didn't come down to the last drive or even the last handful of drives . OSU defensive front was nasty and a difference maker , and Fields was on fire . As Accurate as a San Diego weather man { Going to be pleasant, not to hot , not too cold , sunny and lower humidity rinse repeat } and playing with the same stress. Not much if any. He looked cool , unflappable , poised, collected, focused ,and this reality lead to being deadly accurate . One bad play{ early second half pick in the end zone } was a result of the pass being deflected , but throwing into triple coverage and risking the shorter FG attempt was not smart.

Northwestern handling Auburn wasn't eye popping but rather affirming that they were a good solid team that pushed OSU and was going to be able to handle a decent SEC team with a coaching regime change pending. Georgia still being alive in the teaser that I had them in and smartly avoiding them straight was a fortunate occurrence . Not that it was handicapped poorly , because Georgia most assuredly left some points on the field . { Deep territory multiple times with little to show , Fumble, Pick in the end zone, and a failed 4th and one pass attempt { WTF} . All Cincy really had to do was run the ball to kill more clock then punt. They threw , the clock stopped and Georgia had just enough time left to hit the FG near the buzzer.

It looked as if Georgia had made a mistake by not going for it on 4th and 4 on their own 40 or so, and then were in danger of not getting the ball back . The KO with 2 seconds left{ from the 20 after a 15 yard celebration penalty} sailed through the return guys down to the 2 , Safety on the ;last play sealed it for me keeping Georgia in the teaser with Texas A'm today who only has to beat UNC by a point . I have to remember this bit of luck when I inevitably suffer a 'bad beat " in the future. Probably lost more games and totals on this type of last play desperation , 10 laterals kind of crap over the years, but yesterday was a nice win .


4 games today have about as much information as I'm going to get . Nice handful of wins to start the shortened bowl season followed by a couple of setbacks { Tough beat Tulsa , and egg laying short handed Coaching coved San Jose } then a couple wins yesterday and a probable win today with A'M.

I was talking with a few people yesterday before the Bama - Notre Dame game and they asked me who I liked and thought about the game. I basically said that I didn't play it because I thought it was perfectly lined and would probably come to the last drive or two which would be basically meaningless but would determine the Point spread winner . Either Bama expanding or the Irish pushing through the back door . Well that was what happened . Total seemed high but I thought Bama would score more and ND would score a bit more as well so I left that alone too. Indiana is trending up towards 10 . Big -10 with a little more respect ?

Probably get involved with them .
 
Indiana line is a bit too high but I like the total at 68.5 to go UNDER . IU defense is pretty legit, they are pretty healthy and they as always under Coach Allen will fly to the football and give max effort. Ole Miss is very good offensively . Kiffin usually has solid schemes offensively . I like IU match-up with them though . Two top targets and TE will be sitting{ Getting ready for the NFL } . I call it quitting the team. I know the games means less than some kids NFL aspirations , but opting out seems like a trite term . If you were playing on a average HS basketball team for instance , or a soccer team . And you stopped playing for that team towards the end of the season to play in some AAU tourney or some soccer showcase would you say those players were opting out ? Or would you say they left the team or QUIT?

I See that as quitting the team . Or if at any point in a football season you decide to just not play in some games because it's become more about you not getting hurt or thinking about yourself , I see that as quasi quitting on your team at the least. It is the year of COVID, so some bets are off and I get that these games in the grand scheme mean more to the underclassmen may be , but if you stop playing for your team when healthy and it's your last year with the team? You didn't opt out. You quit.


Seeing something like 34- 28 ? Hopefully no short fields , and or special teams scores and we have a great chance to keep it UNDER .
 
IU- Ole Miss Total looks like it should stay well UNDER , another win .

Iowa State - 5.5 over Oregon - ISU strength is defense and stopping the run. Fundamental play . Oregon hasn't progressed as a team like ISU has with less games. Got outplayed by USC snap for snap , but got some breaks , made some breaks and got the W. Like the coaching match-up as well. Purdy makes enough plays to get to about 30-35 points and the Cyclones win by 7-10 points.
 
Real nice bowl season run in the last handful of days . One game left in this most challenging and different season. Alabama opened 7.5 and is now universally at - 8 . Pretty accurate . Clemson successfully attacked the perimeter early on and made some chunks gains and scored two early Td's. Bama has more depth in their stable of playmakers and a better O-Line to give the skill guys a bit more time and space in which to operate. Buckeyes will compete their es off of course and should be able to move the rock themselves but the line is pretty accurate here.

Dallas{ -2.5 , now lower -1.5} and Indy { -13.5 , now at 14-14.5} are early opinions in this last week of the regular season. Always a pretty exciting if not tricky week to get a hold of . Certain variables and dynamics are unique in the last week. Start times are staggered pretty equally on early and later starts which is a positive in terms of the fans enjoyment , but it can wreak havoc with motivations of some teams depending on the early results at times .

Future season win totals are without drama for me as we went 3-1 with the Patriots UNDER 9.5 being the best bet . Toughest schedule they have had in over a decade was actually more of a factor to me than Brady leaving in some respects. Brady was good for a couple extra wins if eh stayed but this team was fading later in the season last year . The number was based on history and simply never having to really deep dive into the team dynamics for the last 15 -20 years. They got this wrong . 8-8 was the ceiling for this club with a new QB and a tougher schedule and they also had a couple more guys opt out than some other clubs .

UNDER 6.5 for the Giants has cashed as they sit at 5 wins going into today's Dallas game. Steelers OVER 9 wins was clinched a few weeks ago , and the loser was UNDER 10.5 with the Saints who have surpassed that total.

Texas A'm took care of business for us as expected but they certainly weren't world beaters . UNC was depleted , they didn't have enough horses to stay in this race for 60 minutes . Oklahoma screwed up by losing TWO games early , including a tough one to Iowa State , who got the victory for us last night vs Oregon . Nice effort holding them to 17 and getting a larger than expected margin { 34-17} .

Grabbed the Bears + 5.5 a few days ago to hang in well vs. the Packers . Money is flowing towards this opinion as it is now at 4 points. Bears with Trubisky playing at a higher level are a different team right now and are dangerous. They have settled in at about what they are and should be after a great start deteriorated badly . Packers looked great in the snow but I think that initial line was a bit of an overreaction, and it's been corrected. Feel pretty good that this game will stay pretty close and come down to the last few possessions in Chicago . Primo LT Bakhtiari is out for the season and it's a big blow to the Pack. Packers big time number one seed incentive makes it less than a large play but I think the Bears have enough to hang. Oh and Aaron Rodgers is still pretty good Lol.
 
Early Teaser { 1.00 pm. starts} [6.5 points

Tampa Bay - 7 { - .5 } over Atlanta - T Brady stays hot and TB gets another win . Atlanta should have won last week , but again can't close a game or catch the ball on defense when it is thrown to them.
with

Baltimore - 13.5 { 7 , key number yes but they win by two scores 4 out 5 times here} over Cincinnati - Cincy is grinding and not quitting. Playing hard. Put up points vs Houston last week but it's clear they have quit . Baltimore is hot and will play defesne limiting Cincy this week. 27- 14 ?
 
Cleveland is up 8 and trying to hold on but just gave up the ball with 3 and a half left .

Patriots playing their first meaningless game pertaining to the playoffs in 20 years but no way they are losing g to the hated Jets (. Bill B hates the Jets ) 3 points even with guys out wax and insult .

Tennessee -7. Rams + 1.5. Is a nice teaser . Rams QB situation iff with Goff out but I think they stay close and getting more than a TD is a solid prop . Tennessee just needing to win to cap that play .
 
Wild end to the regular season in the Sunday night game we weren't involved in at all , but I have to say that if I am the Giants , I'm pretty upset right about now. Sudfeld ? Is that the correct spelling ? lol , anyway Nate the former Indiana QB hadn't played in two years? Sudfeld holds one one the best jobs in sports and basically the best starter job coming out of college as well. The third string QB feels little to no pressure most of the time , gets to hang on the sidelines , chart plays , offer support to the guys playing and makes a damn good salary doing it. Now some use this position to move up to the back-up position and some even ascend to the throne of starter every once in a while. This isn't one of those cases however. Sudfeld is a classic third stringer . He is tall so there's that { 6-6} He's not a disruptive sort . [In other words holds no hope of ever being someone who gets on the field , well until now}

He and his family are enjoying some notoriety this morning no question . To put this into proper perspective , Alex Smith gutted it out and played last night with the play-offs on the line and was as underwhelming as Geraldo Rivera is when opening a vault. 22-33 for a whopping 162 yards , which is 5 yards an attempt and had TWO PICKS to put the cherry on top of this truly mundane effort which had him at a 75 passer rating . He looked like a combination of Dan Marino and Peyton Manning in comparison to the Eagles QB's . Make no mistake . Jalen Hurts was 'BAD " , real bad . 7-20 for 72 yards { 3.6 an attempt} with a interception and a QB rating of 25 . Sudfeld " outdid" him in relief . How does 5-12 for 32 yards , got sacked twice for a - 16 yards and threw a pick himself .QBR a surreal 14.6 . To be fair he did have a 12 yard run .Hurts ran for 34yards on 8 attempts . No excuse as to why you would put Sudfeld in short of 'We were really trying not to win " 'I hate the Giants and didn't want to see them make then play-offs " or we wanted a higher draft pick " is acceptable.

May be Pederson who may be really secure in his job , really thought Sudfeld would outdo the struggling Hurts ? Cant get inside the head. WFT is in and will lose next week to Tampa Bay who is a 7.5 favorite on the road . But we did learn that Nate Sudfeld was still drawing a paycheck , but he really earned it last night . Embarrassing yourself on a stand alone National TV game is the price you pay sometimes when you are the third string guy . It was kind of like the research guy in a business who charts information , does the grunt back round work , offers support , being asked to give the important presentation of the data to the client in a emergency situation. It doesn't usually go well . This included.


Teasers came in which was the profit margin for the day. Tampa Bay with Baltimore ended up looking easy but TB was pushed only up three points in the 4th before padding the score late , Baltimore obliterated Cincy , kind of like I thought Indy would do to Jax { did get the narrow cover} . The Rams got there easily , but the Titans struggled on defense once again and needed a Texans defensive mental lapse with 18 seconds and a riccoched FG from the back-up kicker to escape with a win and cash the ticket . Rarely played 9 point three teamer with Pittsburgh getting almost 20 points , San Francisco getting over 2 Td's and Indy having to win by 6 or more { slept walked but got there in two plays for us} .

Got NE -3 late over the Jets. Patriots had more guys out which was why I waited to see the complete list , but even with their roster as it was , the bottom line is the Jets are still not real good, , the line was extremely fair { basically priced as if the teams were dead even } even with the Jets playing better recently. Belichick HATES the Jets. The Patriots as an organization has been extremely embarrassed in two stand alone National TV games { Bills , Rams} and BB was pi$$ed at the lack of effort last week . Patriots weren't losing to the Jets at home after last week. Down 14-7, Newton played really well using his legs and arms .{ 21-30 241 8.1 an attempt with no turnovers } 79 yards rushing. He was the difference as Darnold threw two picks . He was effective a times but that ended up being the difference.

Getting the earlier number sometimes is crucial .Indy opened at - 12.5 , quickly went to 13 , then 13.5 then 14 . Got at 13.5 . Got a two point conversion with 3 and half left to cover the sucker . Up 20-0 they kind of dicked around for a while before finally scoring again with 3 and a half left. Led by a monster effort from stud rookie Jonathan Taylor {30 - 253 } who scored the last TD on a 45 yard run , was unstoppable and was the difference AND FULLY NEEDED. Old man Rivers was basically an Alex Smith vs. Philly clone.17-27 god for 6 yards an attempt and a 77 passer rating.{ One pick}.


Bears + 5.5 I thought was a good value .and they played well most of the game. Were down 5 had the ball for a while , converted a couple 4th and one's but got in yet anohter 4th and 1 situation in GB territory and finally missed { were 4 for 4 before that } .BALLGAME . GB finally got the ball back and Rodgers playing at an absurd level and should be the MVP , closed out the game professionally . He had a gaudy 147 passer rating with an efficient 19-24 effort averaging 10 yards an attempt. He also had a perfectly thrown long pass for a TD dropped which would have given him over 300 yards and another TD. Bears had 35 more yards and used the clock well enough to cover this . Getting to 4th and one 5 times in a game is surreal . Missing that last one ended up being the difference . Packers tacked on a late insurance TD when the Bears and Trubisky had to take a few chances with not much time left .Mitch threw a bad pick , Packers with short field off of a nice return scored again .


Dallas was playing much better than the Giants . Giants were floundering . QB was not fully healthy .Thought it should have come in and was the right side . I guess Mike McCarthy isn't such a great coach unless he has Brett Favre or Aaron Rodgers under center. Giants Daniel Jones has played well at times and yesterday against a subpar Boys defense he was pretty good . Dallas played as if they hadn't a thing to possibly play for in the first half , showing little to no effort, no fire , no energy and were down 11 at the break . Played much better and outplayed the Giants in the second half. Not enough . Giants had 35more yards total but Cowboys did enough to win but were undone by some pretty pathetic coaching and play selection late. 3rd and almost 20 out of field goal range the Giants threw a 10 yard pass that was obviously incomplete and trapped by the ground by Pettis .

McCarthy stares at the big scoreboard replay , waits , waits and alas DOES NOTHING as he watches the 50 yard FG attempt go through the uprights giving the Giants a 4 point lead late . Umm Mike? What were you looking at exactly ? What were the guys up in the box looking at ? 4th and 20 , they punt , {NOT GOING TO ATTEMPT A 60 YARDER} they are still up one , but the Cowboys who had been moving the ball in the second half only have to kick a FG to win . Of course they move it down with Dalton making some plays with his legs and completing some short passes , ending up at the Giants 6 yard line 1st and goal . Empty backfield , drop back pass ? OK if you block it well , may be that's an OK call { Why not at least give the threat of the run using a RB who may have been able to pick up a pass rusher if nothing else?} but of course the Cowboys O-Line doesn't even bother to block the Giants BEST pass rusher which resulted in a 9 yard loss back to the 15 . Next play CeeDee Lamb drops a soft pass over the middle where he has room to run and would have at least gotten down to the 5 yard line. 3RD and goal from the 15 , again they don't properly block the best pass rusher Williams , Dalton is hurried , gets nothing on the pass , it hangs in the air for an hour and is easily picked off. Thanks for coming . By the way , GB has won 26 regular season games in the two seasons since McCarthy 'Left" resulting in a two seed last yer and a one seed this year.
 
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Quick initial thoughts about next week's games . Ohio State getting 7.5-8 is a very sharp accurate line. It is clear that in the college game there are three programs that are getting the best players year in and year out. These three are kind of like the Ivy league of college football development and success , and get the best football "Students " to apply . Oklahoma Notre Dame , LSU , Florida , and a couple others in odd years can be very near or even close to equal , BUT these three have the best combo of facilities, great coaching , tradition , momentum , and most importantly more of the best of the best players want to become part of these programs .


Alabama and Clemson have set themselves apart from Ohio State not in terms of overall material and strength , but in wins and taking care of business on the field more consistently. I opined back in 2013- 2014 that Ohio State was a legit top SEC like program and was getting handfuls of that kind of player that is elite and having excellent NFL potential. The D-Lines were especially getting stronger and more athletic . OSU is right up there or even surpassing these other two 'CFB 'Whales " in terms of the numbers in producing good NFL guys . LSU was truly elite last year but that is a more one hit wonder in this recent era { great program that gets great players} , because they simply don't have the same level of coaching and or national recruiting momentum,. Not that you can't what you need from the South and Southwest alone , BUT they don't have that type of profile.

I wrote about what match-ups would occur if an 8 team play-off was to happen this year and there were some really good potential match-ups . Interesting , lucrative, and better for the game adn for fans EVEN IF the same 3 Whales would make it past the first round . This is true even as these three ALWAYS get top 5 recruiting classes adn that trend is getting stronger. Money may factor in next year after the massive losses this year , but it will still be a positive .More meaningful regular season games, more for teams to play for , a more interesting overall' Play-off , and LESS meaningless bowl games .

Bama is a machine . They smartly evolved into a spread out your athletes , get them in space often and not simply bludgeon the other team running and then play action throws with more 'Average " talented QB's . Even their defensive talent was having some trouble defending spread it out teams , with a lot of skill guys on the perimeter getting into space. They elevated their QB recruiting , have a couple more fast elusive guys in every recruiting class , and now beat the teams that sometimes gave them fits and an loss every so often at their own game with even better athletes .

Saban was tired of having to give up points more quickly than his team scored them at times and finally said, OK we will do what others do but with MORE talent BETTER Guys up front and upgrade our DB's. even more. Of course they have a HUGE talented staff, great facilities and probably the best most focused college coach ever. Alabama has less upset losses or unfocused efforts than anyone in this generation of college football . Clemson is rolling and has become more a national program in the last 6-7 years .[Two Ohio Starting O-lineman actually , who kind of got beat up a bit on Friday} Ohio State can go into Texas and get players, Florida, Arizona . Ohio is a strong base. They win a good percentage of the best players in the Midwest outside of Ohio .


Saturdsay

Buffalo is NASTY Laying 6.5-7 vs Indy seems light almost. Phillip Rivers is not going to be good enough at this point to go on the road and beat a team like Buffalo . He isn't nearly as consistent anymore, can't move well and Buffalo can flat outscore him even if he is playing well .Love his competitiveness and his career has been worthy of some HOF discussion , BUT the Colts hit the end of the trail here and may be so does Rivers ?

Seattle is a weird team, they are often behind they don't score for long stretches , mostly near the start of games where they struggle , Wilson then plays better in the 4th they come back and win . it's great that he plays so well late but how do they always seem to get behind , sometimes way behind more than other good teams? Laying 4.5 to the Rams who we need to wait and see who is actually playing . Defense can still be very good for LA .


Tampa is another uneven team that gets way behind sometimes , comes back , sometimes gets way ahead and the other team comes back . They finish strong more often than not . Washington is the required entrant from their division . Tampa is laying 8 points on the road . Nuff said . Tampa and Buffalo teased down to basically having to win by a field goal or less is a no brainer. Tampa beats Washington , but that back door may be open for WFT? Yesterday they were 3 ahead of Atlanta LATE, final scoring was misleading. It's why I only teased them.

Sunday

Baltimore laying 3.5 is HOT, no one wants to play them . Tennessee can't stop anyone . Baltimore should get revenge here, Jackson breaks his play-off cherry .

New Orleans laying 9.5 is poised, , they think this is their time . no heavy lifting win vs Chicago ? NO is a tougher team to run on than GB was . Mitch may throw a couple picks here . Tough to handicap turnovers, but in this case?

Pittsburgh laying 4 in a rematch and third meeting with Cleveland . Browns had more trouble than they should have yesterday . That doesn't bode well here. 17 years ago I watched the Browns last play-off game in a Cleveland Hotel bar while on the road .{ Moved to CO shortly after } {Also watched the Buckeyes Natty win vs Miami in that same visit this time from a Columbus hotel bar along with the Louisville basketball team's fans and program figures with some Pitino and a few player glimpses { Playing OSU in C-Bus} The Browns lost to the Steelers then ,and likely waited 17 years to lose to them again in a similar scenario ? Yes .
 
School starts back up and High schools stay remote with cases and spread at it's highest levels . How does this affect off season strength and conditioning programs? The work you do from now until late July has a lot of say in what kind of team you may have. How close you become , how much improvement takes place on average for your players? How much growth? Strength = confidence . The best programs get that full year of football 'Growth " out of the highest percentage of players. How many self motivated players do you have and how many can those individuals influence the others. Take along? Encourage? This is a coaches job of course, but the real strong programs long term build that culture where the players push each other and are accountable to each other.

Older guys show the younger ones what it takes , they know this because they learned from the older players themselves. It then is a perpetual thing . Winning and success over a longer period of time is HARD. It isn't common . Great runs over time ebb, flow and sometimes careen off course. Strong cultures don't go on indefinitely . That edge eventually dulls a bit . Coaches change , momentum slows and that era of sustained excellence ends.

Friday night lights was a massive success as a book , TV show and a decent movie. Many things have been written about the players the culture , the domination , the politics , and the attitudes . About the 'program". The book came out in 1990 . The season Bissinger followed was 1988 . Do you think that anyone would have thought that this 20 something run was kind of close to ending? It was. 1965 when the school was 6 years old was the first title and first great team. it started an incredible run in the top division of Texas HS football that is uber competitive as we all know.

It was the top program of the 80'S in Texas . The year after the FNL team in 1989 they were ESPN National champs. Were dinged for illegal practices in 1990 , were back at the top in 91 , were really good in 92 { upset in a snowstorm in round three} dinged using an illegal player in 93with another really good team , won one playoff game and were then evicted from the play-offs. 94 was another really good team lost in the Semi's and lost in the finals in 95 . THAT'S IT. It came slowly apart after that . Missed the play-offs had their first losing record , lost to Odessa High after beating them for over decades straight . Had a good team in 98 that lost in round three , and then started missing the play-offs in multiple years , closer to a 500 program than a dynasty through most of the early 2000's . Haven't even been in the conversation for a deep play-off run . Programs catch up , they were doing things that others weren't doing. They were sacrificing more, { In season early morning practices in the gym , and then full practice after school} Coaches leave bring that to other programs and then those programs catch up , often had more talent and thrived and beat that program they hadn't beaten in decades in some cases.

Times change , demographics changed, the culture changed a bit . Coaching continuity was interrupted , others from the outside came in with mixed results , mostly subpar or disappointing , the men brought in were never able to duplicate the success they had at other schools that got them the job at Permian.

The game has changed , there are super teams put together in big city suburbs with a lot of program stacking via transfers { double digit in some years with the top programs} Teams from West Texas are no longer state contenders in the large school divisions.

CB West , Long Beach Poly , Berwick PA. To name just three all had decades long runs , coaching continuity , and momentum. it eventually ebbed and the dominant runs ended. It happens. Coaches and staff's don't stay together forever at any level of football . Dynamics change, Demo's change, the landscape shifts and you either adjust or the run of sustained success slows and then stops . Inevitable? May be , but it is real . You won't ever see that type of run from a program in West Texas, and at the NFL level you won't ever see a run like New England had . it won't happen .

There won't be a Belichick and his staff and" program" {yes the Belichick large umbrella of guys have always referred to building NFL team as 'programs", Viewing it that way and operating this way has been a reason it has thrived at the top level of football } that can sustain success for 20 years like they have. Even this 'program " doesn't have an unlimited shelf life of greatness and playing in Super Bowls frequently .

Consistency of product is something all great company's ,organizations and teams strive for. You don't just snap your fingers and it happens You don't just talk about it, make plans for it, you DO IT .You work it every day . It becomes what you do without thinking about it .it is embedded .

So from now until late July early August , what programs do and don't do greatly determines what that teams potential is . What adjustments do you make? What self evaluation have the coaches gone through? What changes can you make to improve . What mistakes were made . What can we improve upon ? How can we motivate a higher percentage of players to do the work ? To really commit. Are there kids in the building that may be able to help us? How can we 'Recruit " them ? { Two of the programs coaches at my school were Gym teachers, even with a very strong program with momentum they would always try to get a few kids out who weren't playing talking to them in the gym } How can we keep numbers up ?


Do we need to do a better job of IN SEASON strength and conditioning ? Do better scouting ? Film ? Game plans? adjustments? Pre plan more in advance how to game plan against certain programs? Encourage and motivate more kids towards doing more 'On their own" to be the best version of themselves . The more people you have with this mindset the better your program is . Getting kids to be better than they think they can become .

Coffman is in the biggest rebuild I can remember overall .2013 as I have noted was probably the same in terms of number of returning starters, but as good as the 2012 team was { Horrible early upset loss to Davidson a team they beat by 23 in the regular season in a hail of turnovers} was they didn't have this level of talent leaving . There are some very good pieces to start with on defense though. How can we maximize their potential as players and leaders to keep the program at a making the play-offs at least level? Crabtree's 20 year run has been impressive, consistency has been outstanding .

Defensively how can we get as many negative yardage plays as possible? Can we coach up the LB's to get to the level of the last coupe years ? Get the most of our assets and maximize them and try to lessen any weaknesses or the impact of inexperience . 2019 the new Junior LB'S were coached up and played really well . The two underclassmen on the D-Line this year were coached well and will be forces this year . Secondary had D-1 player transfer to Hoban and lost another safety to injury . Sr. Phipps was ruled ineligible and didn't play in the last 4 games so he was anohter one who could have played some back there. Corner will have new guys , the injured Rising Sr. safety will return and likely start. Inside backers , corners and a couple guys up front is a nice rebuild . But a handful of guys saw action and showed promise , so it can be a good unit down the road adn IF THEY put in the work in the next 7 months and THEN keep improving and working once the scrimmages and games start.


Offensively going into the off-season , the O-Line is a complete rebuild . Two Rising Sr's saw 'Some" action . That's it . There are some kids with some size and potential in the younger ranks but it's going to be a lengthy process that starts now . The main asset and it's a big one is the QB, Maggs . He is 6-3 200 and growing , is a good athlete with some shake actually in the open field if he gets outside the pocket who played receiver this year along with some shorter stints at QB. QB's two's in general were hurt by the Covid shortened season. Maggs would have gotten some more meaningful snaps with extra games. How can you build around him ? Of course developing the O-line is crucial , but how can you work that to the benefit of both QB and the new line? QB 1 has to work on footwork , delivery , and arm strength . he has solid tools and skills to start with but he can be better and I think the key is getting the ball out quickly . Can you get that last 25-30 percent out of the two returning Receivers? Can you may be incorporate a TE this year? Can you get another couple receivers out for the team or develop another kid or two to play that role?

QB 1 has a very nice arm and if he has some support he can be very effective. Hopefully he can do some kind of camp circuit and get some notice because he has a lot of potential . Can the receivers be coached up to get open better? Ullery a few years back was an excellent receivers coach who really helped them get open more easily. Now some of that is natural talent and he had some nice stables , BUT THE ROUTE RUNNING WAS OUTSTANDING . This needs to be a focus . I opined that the coaches had to utilize more kids to play situationally two way roles . They have done that well . This will be needed to be done again with about 4-5 kids .Not full time of course, but DB-REC guys , LB's DE , /OL/ TE types? RB/LB/ SAF. One two way Lineman ?

Route combinations becoming a bit sharper, BETTER PLAY DESIGN , Receivers getting a bit stronger quicker and better at getting open { Adding a couple receivers to play with the talented thrower } Back to may be utilizing a TE ? Becoming more a passing team given your QB and personnel ? Getting the ball out quickly to help the O-line ?

Lastly Coffman is what I call a 'Wrinkle Free " offense . There are very few large wrinkles or trick or gadget plays employed . Solid scheme and some 'setting up " of the defense to hit them with something later , but in terms of just taking a real shot at a homerun off of a gadget play or a kind of exotic reverse , throwback , or even a HALFBACK PASS of some kind , there has been almost none of this .

I played in the wing T since 5th grade . I was a halfback the vast majority of the time but earlier played some QB . Playing some QB and being a starting RB and the back-up QB I threw some balls in some games, but the arm was developed by playing football in the school yard and playing baseball . in fact most of the RB's were also baseball players . I threw a few or more halfback passes EVERY year I played and Frosh year threw 5 TD passes and a couple two point conversions , It was a staple of the offense really . We would run the sweep a handful of times and then pull up and throw the HB pass later in the game , or hit the with it early to get a jump on them . It was very effective , partly because of the scheme but also because a few of us had good arms and had run that and variations of that play for years.

I get that if you have superior personnel and scheme you shouldn't have to resort to trickery or gimmicks , reverses , throwbacks , fumblerooskies LOL , but to me seeing that in most of the recent play-off losses and some in the past , the loss was a result of NOT SCORING at your averages , a more diverse , exotic playbook can help may be? Drennan threw a long pass to the QB on the last play of a half{ down 16-0 it was intercepted, but they did come back to beat Olentangy 23-16} and I remember Marcineck throwing a WR pass against Scioto a while back {TD that went through the DB's arms to former CJ Saunders{ , but It seems to me the lack of imagination overall is a real thing .
 
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Gotta love Nick Saban's rebel wild child daughter accusing OSU of faking Covid issues. Of course its a reaction probably based on Justin Fields jacked up side [Ribs , back } and OSU wanting him to be closer to 100 percent.

Is there any merit to this ? Probably not , but lets face it , the OSU - Clemson game even if Fields doesn't get a helmet tattoo on his lower back was a car wreck of a physical game whereas Bama -Notre Dame was a fender bender . There was some physical play in that one , BUT Clemson -OSU was a game where every other play there was someone limping off, holding something . Most of us who have played have a couple memory's of games that were just a different animal in terms of physicality . Collision filled grinders that just felt 'different". This was one of those games . OSU would likely benefit from another week off .

Been involved in a certain bowl "POOL" for many years { almost 20 years , missed a couple }, you pick all the games against the spread which are provided before all the games kick off . Now with the play-off , the Natty title game isn't included because you don't know who is going to be in it of course . But the tie breaker { top 3 get $$$} is the total in that game. The total in the OSU - Alabama game is 75-76 right now . In this era you just go high { high 50's to low 60's} more of the time than not , when you don't know who what the actual match-up will be { OK Clemson - Bama is always a good bet most years lately lol} . As it is now there is a first place winner already , I am tied with another guy for 2nd ,{ 33 entrants this year ,pretty high buy in so is a nice chunk of change difference between 2nd or third place } ever gets closest to the total of this game gets 2nd the other gets third . My total is 64 . His is 63 . I like my chances . BUT going over 75- 76 ? Nahh .

As I opined when the numbers came out and some'guys" grabbed as well right away a teaser with Buffalo - 6.5 and Tampa Bay - 7.5 { now higher } and feel those clubs who may be pushed a bit , will win the football games which is all BOTH have to do. NFL teasers are very useful if played smartly and judiciously . We have good success this year playing them { college as well } but in the play-offs it's a bit trickier as there are not as many games and there are always an upset or two you just don't see coming . Tampa and Buffalo isn't a sure thing as both teams hardly have a winning play-off pedigree right now. TB is helped of course by Brady's resume and experience , and they have star studded ensemble at his disposal and guys with play-off experience { Gronk AB to name two } Washington has an excellent defensive front that can really alter TB's timing and rhythm . This could be a struggle for a while . But in the end it's TB figuring a few things out with a much better offense than the WFT has being the difference.

Buffalo is HOT, HOT means something . Most of the time . The times it hasn't is usually a result of a bad fundamental match-up . You see this at all levels of football .it's the particular individual match-ups within the teams not the overall strength of teams that often determine how far a run you make . Lower seeded teams often play feeling a bit less pressure , a nothing to lose, no one expects us to advance mentality, and IF they can stay close or get ahead, that pressure mounts further , you get tighter , the clock becomes a factor adn boom you make some errors and it's over .
Think Baltimore -Tenn last year { revenge rematch ? }

Indy is running the rock well right now, that is always a nice dynamic when you are getting points. The rushing dog theory is real . Clock moves, game is shortened , if you cash in a couple times the game is in peril , game stays closer. Buffalo WILL win here because their offense is simply too good right now and Indy defense not quite good enough , but with stud rookie Jonathan Taylor in a nice rhythm as he gets some more experience as a rookie . Rivers will compete . He can still play a little . But he's in the twilight of his career no doubt. He will not be good enough to outscore Josh" cannon " Allen and the Bills . Stephon Diggs who I saw play once in High school { family who live right there near OLGC in suburban DC } at Good Counsel , and College [Maryland }as a Frosh { Niece was going to school at Maryland at the time } and he was the best player on the field both times . Legit 5 star guy with athletic twitchiness cubed , almost 2000 total yards as a true Frosh isn't normal .

He has gone from Kirk Cousins to Josh Allen .Low powered rifle to a howitzer ? Cute girl next door to a super model ? Allen puts the ball ON HIM in stride with room to run and DOWNFIELD . Cousins and the Minnesota simply stopped utilizing this guy .Adam Thelen is a very good player whose game fits better with Cousins . Diggs needed an upgrade and Josh Allen who has all the talent in the world , HAS IMPROVED as much as any guy I have seen in quite some time . That's on Josh and the work he has done and the coaching that he has received that has helped him develop,, but football is a team game and Stephon Diggs was a GREAT addition and a great fit for this TEAM and has had a nice effect on his improvement . INDY may try to limit or take him away , that's OK, if so Allen hits someone else to stick a dagger or two in the Indy defense .

Also just got Baltimore down off of - 3.5 { now 3} to beat Tennessee. Limited home field advantage porous defense , Jackson is a different guy the last 6 weeks , in synch , more accurate , and most importantly very productive. Baltimore defense { getting a coupe guys back up front has been huge} getting better and last years game still stings. Tennessee obviously has a punchers chance because they are a very good offensive football team , BUT their defense is bad on third down , hasn't really stopped many folks { Made Baker and the Cleveland offense look like vintage circa the 90's Bill Walsh west coast offense at it's apex to name just one game } Giving up an average of 30 a game the last 5 an that's WITH holding the dreadful Jaguars to 10 in a 31-10 win . Baltimore grinds this one out , slows down the Titans just enough and gets a win by a TD { 31-24 ?}
 
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The other game today I didn’t post on was. Getting 4- 4.5 with the Rams in what should be a very competitive game , but the line is down to 3 . Goff MAY play , but with a bad thumb I took the 4.5 thinking he wasn’t going to be able to go . Not sure I want him
To if he can’t play better than he has lately and with a jacked up thumb? ., 3 offers less value , but Rams defense should do a good job against a struggling Seahawks offense . Russell Wilson can make good plays and tickets go to waste . Go Rams
 
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Another good weekend so far . Nice roll as we near the end of the football season with one college game left and 10 NFL tilts left . A year like no other but a successful one in many vanes. Handicap has a different flow and sensibility and the teams themselves have had to deal with upheaval , stops , starts, players opting out, players being ruled out late , multiple starters down . Even coaching shake ups such as Browns not having their top guy with them . Clemson OC missed the Semi final vs. OSU. These occurrences are don't register as something unusual at this point. It's just the cost of doing business in a rare time in our history, sports or otherwise.

It has more or less equaled out for me in terms of being covided, if you will where late information renders a solid opinion less so to a degree. Hedging , and canceling by playing the other side to equal it off has been something that has happened from time to time . Larger lines swings and volatility is more than norm than rare, this year .

So already having Baltimore - 3 feels right this morning . The teaser has been a boon recently as we have had a handful of them come in readily and they were necessary because many of the teams didn't cover the line and needed the help . Of course you need two teams to get the job done and they have at a excellent rate the last 4-6 weeks this season . TB missed the cover unless you got the very early line and the Bills who I thought would win this match up say 65 percent of the time , they needed the help on the line as they didn't cover the 6.5 themselves winning by three .

The Rams got their QB knocked out of the game as the Seahawks for the second consecutive year did this to a QB with a questionable hit that wasn't called . The crux of this play was the poor Seahawks offensive momentum which was not turned around yesterday against what may be the best defense left in the play-offs when they are operating at or near their peak .


Brady was very good when he needed to be as usual in the play-offs and the Bucs have a ridiculous array of offensive skill guys to help the 43 year old legend. Washington QB , 'Heiniken " [Cam Newton called him that } was pretty freaking good considering everything . WFT got some pressure but not nearly enough to slow down the Bucs explosive offense chalk full of Pro Bowl level performers.

So of course the straight Baltimore - 3 is a feature, there is also a nice prop play in this game . JK Dobbins rushing total is at 63.5 and I think it's a good play that he will go OVER that number today. He got 70 on the ground in the last meeting with the Titans . They are giving up pretty large yards on the ground lately and Dobbins is really emerging as a go to back later in his rookie season. He checks in with 805 yards on only 134 carries { 6 yards a pop} . He has a TD in 6 straight games which is third best streak for a rookie since the late 60's. . I think they feed him the rock at least 15 times here. He may not average 6 yards a carry in this spot , BUT he only needs about 4.4 to get there. Tennessee defense is bad on third downs , they get hit pretty hard defending the pass . I think there may be a situation or two{ laying back a bit trying to defend the pass} that may lend itself to Mr Dobbins getting a nice crease and may be breaking off a bigger run [ 20+ yards } that may be the difference in getting this one nailed down.

Ravens hopefully by a 31- 24 score or like result with former Buckeye star Dobbins being a big contributor in the run game. He is also a pass threat , but I think they pound him a bit giving him a nice chunk of carries to set up play action and Lamar pulling it out and keeping a time or two for nice chunks gains as well .

Steelers up to - 6 , Saints towards - 10 . Still working on a bit .
 
Looking at the two later games and considering the success of teasing teams that I think are very likely to win but have a tougher time covering I went back to that with

NO -10. With Pittsburgh - 6
Getting NO to “ only “ 4 isn’t ideal as it’s a somewhat key number but it has a good chance tinder there matchup wise . Pittsburgh just having to win is a good play obviously . A couple props in the NO - Chicago game closer to kick .
 
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