Dublin Coffman Rocks 2020

Week 12 Cont.

Pickerington Central vs St Xavier, - CP Line ST X - 2

Talked a lot about the PC program a 20 year overview that covers the growth and the changes in the community and the school system growth and expansion and the football programs. This is the third play-off game between the 2 with each program winning one. Tigers beat ST X 14-7 in 2011 losing in the finals to IGGY. ST X beat PC in 2016, 29-27 on their way to a title . PC offense was awesome at times last week gaining a bunch of yards per play and scoring enough points to off set a penalty filled uneven defensive effort. PC will have a tougher defensive test this week for sure.

Last week X won despite 5 turnovers , lost the battle 5-0 .Springfield missed a couple field goals and stalled as well on occasion negating their chances for victory. Springfield defense is fast and has come on as the season has gone on. I think next year is going to be very interesting for Springfield and they could have easily been playing tonight, but is likely going to be better next year .

ST X was terrible on third and 4th down .1-11 on third and 0-4 on 4th. They will have to improve that tonight if they want to win .They ran for 116 yards at a 4.3 clip . They would only have to duplicate that in order to win IMO. Throwing the rock is their bred adn butter and they have a couple good receivers led by Clifford who caught 8 balls for 121 yards last week . McFarlan had 4 catches for 68. Mc Caughey is a good QB and he spreads the ball around well but his main focus in on Clifford. PC will have to do better this week against the pass as X is going to be better than Mentor was without Kipp..

ST X will be prepared well for the QB running , but Wallace doesn't run as much as Smoot did last week where he was basically the only rushing threat for Springfield. X shut the down the run game giving up just under 3 a rush. S-Field had 95 yards in penalty's .X had 65 . PC MUST really cut down on their 120 yards of penalty's . Springfield incredibly had a + 5 TO margin and 27 minutes of possession and LOST ? . Smoot was only 9-23 passing but had 205 yards. Smoot is a smooth operator , a natural thrower of the football. Wallace is not . The thing PC has that S-Field didn't have last week is a threat at RB. Mosely is a tough runner who can grind . X will attempt to make PC throw it a bit more than they would like , and make Wallace beat them.

What I haven't mentioned and it is a glaring omission , is playmaker Lorenzo Styles. X FACTOR. In fact I called the PC- Elder game last year and my reasoning was Styles was a guy who was the X factor and would make a play at some point to may be win the game . He did just that. I envision him doing that again tonight. You can handle him for a bit , but eventually he just has that play-making ability to change the course of the proceedings . Pitches , short outs , straight runs, jet sweeps , and downfield in the passing game.


Clifford will make a few plays and X will handle the run well I believe the game will be a bit lower scoring than some may imagine . Another factor is special teams. Turnovers , short fields , one team getting a larger lead could prop up the scoring , but I think X will take care of the ball better this week , PC will cut down on the penalty's and the game will be well played and that may make the score stay down with the teams playing field position and guarding against giving up the bigger plays. Clock runs a bit?


This will be the best teams each has faced . PC has a bit more individual talent and speed , ST X has a passing attack that can be tough to stop if executed at a high level even for a team as talented as PC is in the secondary. Who wins the TO battle ? FG kicking? Special teams . Some edges to PC ? Slight . I made the line PC - 3 . I don't predict games by the margins I make the line in most cases BUT in this case ? Yes I will


PC 23 ST X 20
 
Waking up to the shock of what was basically a first half of the first round knockout . Game was over before you even sat down for good never mind the seat getting warm. I stopped watching early second quarter periodically flipping back the next hour and half as I checked one of my cash cows once again come in for me UC Bearcats throttling East Carolina whose coach had some choice words for who I call the water boy " Luke Fickell " {tell me he doesn't remind you of Adam Sandler } .

In a weird way a fitting conclusion to the HS football season in D-1 in a surreal and challenging 2020. A year like no other. Over on the game thread the usual SW Ohio arrogance and chest thumping , with one guy berating PC as if they were some upstart who has never won a damn thing who has never stayed on the field with a mighty Cincy regional team . He said the coaches were terrible and the program should learn to schedule 'Tough teams" as if they never have and there wasn't this you know GLOBAL PANDEMIC going on and that may be they had no room to schedule as they normally would. Obtuse ? Holy crap.

OK , so basically the game was over a few minutes in . So fast that PC coaches who clearly were beaten scheme wise , had literally no chance to adjust . Now at 16-0 and the Bombers getting into PC territory again still never even pausing the rhythm they were in , I said to my wife, they need a TO and may be stop blitzing and may be sit 7-8 in coverage to get them out of rhythm , stop the momentum and change the looks the QB was getting . I mean it was clear that PC wasn't getting to the QB even sending anohter guy or two , so why not give the QB a new look and when it was clear that the game was real close to being over and ST X wasn't going to run the ball at all , you sit back and make his thread some needles .


They never took the TO and they never really adjusted until it was way too late .Insult to injury was a surreal Punt return with the kid threading his way through about 7 guys in the proverbial phone booth. Two short fields with a punt snapped dropped and a fumble near the 20 helped put this one away early and made it much tougher to adjust with no time . Now of course football is a complementary game. Your offense and defense work off of each other . PC offense needed to keep the ball and give the defense some time to breath and adjust . Never happened as they weren't able to run the football as X was aggressively attacking the line of scrimmage overwhelming them. The ground and pound wasn't going to work and you were way behind as well. This is where the style makes fights comes into play. I had opined that X would do well defending the run and that was an under-statement . That's might have bene ok for a bit under normal circumstances , BUT with the turnovers field position issues and X's incredible opening 'Script " and perfect execution it was too late .


This is where PC's lack of a true passing game hurts them . They didn't play their normal 10 game schedule and they were never challenged because their league games which they had to play never even remotely challenged them . That isn't the case every year of course ,but this year with the limited games and the new alignment , PC wasn't tested and that is the part I agree with from the chest thumping talking down to ST X contingent on the game thread. That WAS a factor . PC wasn't ; challenged as they usually are , and never developed a Plan B offensively. X clogged the LOS took away the power run game , the QB keepers weren't there, so they needed to throw the football with some effectiveness in order to get X off their backs and out of their faces.

The problem was PC never having to go this route wasn't good at pass protection. The disparity in fundamental pass blocking between these teams was striking . PC O-Line looked like it was on roller skates at times . ST X guys were balanced , used their hands very well which really means they used them right up to the line of where holding calls happen but not going over that line . That's what many really mean when they say those O-Lineman use their hands well lol. Well schooled , tons of passing attempt reps and just had a great night .Props to the game plan the execution and the energy.

Speaking of , ST X had a big advantage ibn the energy department , they were bouncing , moving with purpose , great confident body language , PC was more flat footed, lacked that energy , and when you couple that with a couple short fields , perfect execution, no time to adjust ? You can get this type of result very so often where it makes little sense. PC Literally had no idea what hit them . ST X has some D-1 talent, some others who will play college football at lower levels , they were athletic and PC while having the talent necessary to win , just never got it going and were outplayed out energizied if you will, out schemed , and if this was a boxing match they got knocked out in the first round . Got hit with a barrage of punches , made some key mistakes , couldn't get off of the ropes and were knocked through the ropes .

PC hadn't lost a game by more than 14 in 7 years . This type of thing rarely happens to a program this solid and consistent. But on this night , they got caught in a swirl of their own mistakes , their opponents superior energy and game plan and execution and eventually got overwhelmed finding themselves in a position they had never been in and it happened so fast that they couldn't regroup until it was basically over and a done deal .

ST X played a better schedule , had gotten their less than great play out of their system { 5 TO'S last week } were tested more often , had a better game plan , got a couple short fields a great punt return , were in great rhythm , had more energy and just out executed and outplayed their opponent never having to even break stride . PC in this COVID year played a weaker schedule , were out executed and schemed and got hit with some big punches early and often and along with their turnovers got embarrassed for the first time in quite a while.

SW CNICY fans want to spin a narrative of men vs boys , ok that's cool , so the PC boys didn't beat Elder last year and win their second state title in 3 years ? Got it .
 
Good start with cash cow Cincy last night. A few guys asked if I was going to the well one too many times with them ? Not yet . They are hot and playing with tremendous confidence.

12 NOON WEST VIRGINIA - 3 Over TCU - Huge home field disparity with WVU . Different team at home
 
Got USC and Stanford earlier in the week at better prices , guys got earlier but I like them still but not quite as much at this price level

USC - 13.5-14 { Now rising to 15+ } over Arizona - first game vs USC playing second , Went against USC last week laying a chunk to A-State and won with A-State losing at the end by a couple but Arizona isn't as good as A-State. USC gained 560 yards last week but was sloppy . Biggest improvement is week one to 2 , Arizona playing first game ? USC by at least 17 .

Stanford - 6.5 -7 { now 9 -9.5} over Colorado - Colorado beat a bad UCLA team last week but gave up a truck load of points , Stanford palyed a heavyweight team in Oregon or as much a heavyweight as the Pac-12 has . Cardinal might roll and beat this team up ?


Not a big totals player in CFB as OT can loom and also it's just not a great bet most of the time , took UNDER 51 Purdue -Northwestern . Points should come at a premium here . Low 20's most likely for both as a ceiling .
 
Another case of a team doing everything but win . Penn State 500 yards of offense {200 more than Neb} outplaying Nebraska but losing because they had a fumble returned for a Neb TD and got the minimum out of their yardage . WVU cruised 24-6 . 2-1 for the week but really thought PSU was the right side , but they find ways to lose each week . Shame on me I suppose.
 
NC. State -7 is long gone as it is now 11- 11.5 but i do think Fla State is in free fall .

Oregon Washington State should go. OVER 57.5 - 58 .
 
Congrats to all teams getting to the finals by winning this weekend and the losing teams for getting to this point . ST X embracing and changing their philosophy a bit becoming a rally pass heavy team with execution being so precise that it is hard for anyone to stop has been notable. Even the SEC which was not too long ago a power running first , running backs were very important and running QB's . Now it's a spread them out, get the ball out quick and get your fast quick kids in space going against other fast quick kids in space with the offense wining more than not if the play is executed adn the QB's are fairly accurate . It's like really good pitching usually beating really good hitters. Alabama coach Nick Saban admits that even his stud defenders aren't going to win against a really good passing scheme a majority of the time . Ole Miss lit them up one night and there was little they could do about it . Now Ole Miss hasn't sustained this , but teams like Alabama and LSU last year are really unstoppable with the right QB.

ST X adn SWC backers are really chest thumping claiming they have the best 10 teams in the state down there { OK a bit of exxag} and mocked the Covid schedule of PC and their archaic offensive scheme and that Lakota is the best team in the state and that the Cincy champ is always the best blah blah . OK 44-3 affords you to crow obnoxiously I suppose and Congrats to the Bombers who were a well oiled machine and played probably the best say 15 minutes of football and specifically passing game football we have seen in Ohio considering the type of talent they did it against .

Scheme , play calling , pass protection , QB accuracy, good hands , defense smelling blood and playing with more energy than their opponent , special teams, all of the above, all phases type $ kicking. And they have a ton back . I predicted this final early on pre-season , but of course I figured a close competitive game . It wasn't in any respect .

Looking forward to watching some of the other finals this week . Thought Hoban wouldn't struggle but they are a team that kind of plays loose and sloppy for larger portions of the game than most can and still be a state title favorite. Really uneven play, when they are on they are kickers when they aren't good teams outplay them for a time .I really believe that IF they sleep walk like they did vs. Avon and for a while vs Hudson? Massillon is good enough to dump them . Now IF Hoban plays cleaner and better for closer to 48? They win . But when have they done this lately? Rooting for Massillon if only to quell the haters on other threads and the crap that the Massillon fans have to put up with. I know myself about trolls and haters , but their situation is ridiculous . They face a relentless wave of trolling and mocking that is merciless. Just win one on the field
Tigers, PLEASE .

DeSales - Chardon is one I am really looking forward to as well as Ironton - Kirtland? Some NFL games look very good to me and hopefully will turn out well. I'll share in a while for those interested .
 
Not a bad looking card this week in the NFL a few games stick out a bit .

Rams - 1.5- 2 { now 2.5 in some areas} over Seattle- Hate to bet against Russell Wilson these days as he is pretty much the best of the best now at what he does and Seattle is never out of any game . BUT their defense is another story . They have given up 32 a game on the road . Their get behind ,then have Russell bail them out with his heroics isn't a sustainable model to me. They don't get much pressure on the passer . Goff can struggle with pressure more than some. Seattle won't hassle him much . They got dumped in Buffalo last week with Wilson looking mortal and not being able to bail them out this time. Running backs are banged up with Seattle as well. At this point in the season a bye week can really help and be useful . Rams didn't play last week. Last time they did as you may have seen in these spaces I went against them picking Miami to defeat with them with Dolphins coach Brian Flores having success in his time with the Patriots especially in his DC role handling the Rams and this type of offense .

HUGE divisional game with Seattle sitting at 6-2 and the Rams at 5-3 so it is crucial that the Rams not fall behind more in the standing and they can tie the Hawks with a win with both being 6-3 . Rams are 3-0 at home winning by 8 points a game . I see this as a similar type difference .


Tampa Bay - 5 { now 6.5} Carolina - Football teams at all levels can benefit from the clarity that a total beatdown can give them on what some of their weaknesses are. TB was exposed a bit up front on offense . Carolina isn't New Orleans though. Carolina is MEH on a good day , no McCafferey today after a nice outing last week ? Some see Carolina playing KC tough and think catching ;points at home vs. a team that struggled mightily may be a good idea. Don't do it . Tom Brady off of bad losses is historically really good the next week , good teams who get embarrassed like that often bounce back quickly and are really focused to redeem themselves. TB is simply better and healthier as well. Defense will be better this week and TB and the offense can't be worse . Mediocre to poor teams off of a near miss win vs a really good team often fall flat the next week . TB by two scores seems probable.

A few more shortly
 
Miami - 1.5 over LA Chargers

Miami finds ways to win, LAC finds ways to lose . Chargers are 2-6 despite putting up a bunch of yards with hotshot rook Justin Herbet at QB . Problem is he also turns it over a bit too much . They don't score the amount of points they should and are 23rd in the league in scoring TD's once in the red zone .

Miami is HOT, they are finding ways to win games. TUA is also a new hot thing . The Dolphins will win this with defense though. They aren't great against the run, but LAC is down to their number three RB who is rushing for about 3 yards an attempt . Miami bends a bit but gives up the 4th lowest amount of points in the league, which plays well into SD not scoring efficiently in the red zone.

Heat and humidity in Miami , while not summer like is a significant thing for opponents to deal with . 83 at KO with some humidity as always will be unpleasant for the perfect weather and lower humidity LAC. Miami and the Tua fad continues on with some more energy. Miami close but by more than 1.5-2 . A FG will do but I think may be it's a TD margin.
 
Philadelphia - 3.5 { now 4.5 } over NY Giants - Don't like to go against a team twice in a row after they got me the week before to stay away from emotion revenge being the reason , but here the Giants have lost 12 of 13 to the Eagles, gave up over 500 yards to the Washington football team , had a plus 5 TO margin and still only won by 3 points . Eagles off the bye and have won 2 straight and lost to Baltimore by only a couple points the week before are the side here . Jeffrey and Sanders come back as weapons for Wentz and I see this one as Wentz vs Jones with better support around him now? Eagles by a 7 - 10 POINTS
 
GB - JAX - UNDER 49.5 { Unfortunately it is now 47 or may be 47.5 . ] Weather is driving the number down, GB plays at one of the slowest paces in the league. In hoops totals players are all about tempo and pace analysis. Football can be looked at this way as well obviously . JAX with back-up QB making first start on the road and GB is almost always content to play even slower when they get a lead which the last couple years has been often { 20-6 last two years } . 28- 17 17 gets us there or 24-20 if Jax plays well { Yesterday NW- Purdue final and Under win} }
 
Wild wind here in CO and got the word from Cleveland about a half hour before kickoff{ game delayed } that it wasn't great , Total dipped to 45- 46.5 depending all the way from opening near 53.5 to 54 . taste at 46 late should stay under even the greatly reduced price. 3 points so far so looking good , GB game has seen a 78 yard TD pass and a 91 YARD PUNT RETURN for Jax , of course there was when you play UNDER, now watch there be a defensive scoop and score or pick 6 or a couple short fields . Good grief . TB and Eagles both stinking up the joint . Still a half or so of football to go .
 
Late action

Arizona - 2.5 over Buffalo - Bills with no breaks yet{ no byes} off of two huge home wins { New England and Seattle} with a defense that is less than stellar . Not a great third down defense , doesn't defend the run on early downs well {23rd} they commit a ton of penalty's on the road and make more mistakes. Don't think they can get up for the third straight time and beat this team on the road. Arizona off of a loss at home last week bounces back and tries to keep pace in their division.
 
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Sometimes the late play is one where you see the weirdest stuff. Like , 'why did I take this game ? Arizona stunk it up early in the game , got outplayed a bit and then took over the game in the second half but only got a three point margin as we got into the 4th quarter. They had multiple chances to pad the lead{ 3 Possessions} including the weird play that probably cost me the game. Arizona running it down the Bills throat get into Buffalo territory , then throw it to a wide open Larry Fitzgerald over the middle inside the 25 , butt Murray throws it a bit low and Larry has to leave his feet, gets his hands on the ball but as he hits the ground the ball pops out of his hands right into the hands of the free safety 6-7 yards away .

Allen threads one to Diggs , an absurd throw that seems to give Buffalo the win . Well the Hail Mary prayer is answered putting the Cards up two . The clock didn't run out so that's good news as the XP needed to be attempted. Laying 2.5 and up only two that usually is a good thing . BUT I knew that with that little time on the clock { 2 seconds} they weren't going to chance kicking it because if it gets blocked they can return it for two points the other way . So they take a knee , don't attempt it and win by 2 . It's the situation where you don't want them to win after failing to put it away and end up not covering. Weird finish from all perspectives.

Good weekend overall, winning a small handful more wins than losses. Rams was called well as was Miami who actually outplayed them more than the score would indicate , the totals that stayed UNDER , [ weather , pace } . Have to adjust the Giants power rating as they have picked it up and are taking care of the ball as Philly stays mired in MEH.

College Friday Night and Saturday was decent as well . Games suddenly canceled , Covid scratches of players , uneven schedules . it's been quite a year to be sure. Minnesota , Michigan and Penn State struggling , Indiana surging, PAC -12 just getting going , what a cluster. But you happily take it as opposed to not having any games . A few interesting College games, including the Buckeyes who are stuck at - 20.5 as I suspect that they are trying to get some money on OSU just having to win by 21 . Buckeyes haven't been great in the second half of games, so laying that lumber seems like it's too much right now.That being said, I do think that OSU has been sufficiently warned about Indiana and will be ready to roll. BUT laying that number ?

6 state title games this weekend and a few interesting ones that I will watch on TV , at least parts of the games.

Made lines on all 6 with limited info on a few of these teams . CP line first , what I made it after that .


D-2 Hoban -5 Massillon { Hoban - 7}
D-3 Chardon - 14 DeSales { Chardon - 11}
D-4 Van Wert - 1 Mentor LC { VW - 3 }
D-5 Kirtland - 7 Ironton { Kirtland - 10 }
D-6 Coldwater - 10 NM SFD { Coldwater - 13 }
D-7 New Bremen - 19 Kennedy { NB - 17 }

Hoban , Mass , a lot of talent on the field , Hoban has slept walked at times and it they do it again ? They may lose. Regular participants , bot with talent flowing freely through.

Chardon looks like a well oiled machine , strong community , tradition , some tradition , successful but not tier .DeSales has bene attracting more talent lately , well coached , Hasn't played a lot of different teams, so it's hard to gauge .

Van Wert, was winless just 4 years ago . Not a big play-off winner . MLC in D-4 the last two , missed play-offs last year.

Kirtland - Ironton re-match , Ironton back near the top , Kirtland been here much more frequently . Kirtland a pound for pound best like program

Coldwater is a great program NMS was here last year and got shredded by Anna who was really good . Hope that doesn't happen to them this year.

New Bremen is a MAC program who goes against other really solid small school programs and is tested. Kennedy I will have to look at for a few minutes .
 
Back to Coffman

Who will be the next coach? How long after the break will they take before naming one?
 
Seattle - 3. Tonight to beat Arizona by a TD to 10 points . Get this NFL week off to good start . Seahawks off the Schneid , Arizona won’t beat them twice. Should be a good one
 
AHM said:
Back to Coffman

Who will be the next coach? How long after the break will they take before naming one?
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Please don't post FAKE RUMORS about current head high school football coaches. If you do this again , you will be reported and have your account deleted.
 
Just disregard , AHM and his kind . They are noted here for reading every post and read them basically to see angles to bash Coffman and the community of Dublin in a very personal way. And they do it annually . Sappy bashes the kids of Dublin, the coaches, the culture and the community a few times a year . We have seen his weird motives and rants before . I've wasted enough time responding to the miserable guy and AHM is no better . Just ignore them Rowdy . No need to even respond to that post or any of SAPPY'S as I have done way too much over the years. He will continue to read my every post and sometimes feel the need to bash the community again . Good for him , he doesn't live here so I am not sure what his problem is .He lives in Pickerington and he and AHM are Catholic school fans . May be he can start a thread on Catholic HS football .
 
It's 21 for you guys, Harry. Time to start a new thread! Keep hope alive. And hey, us Fairfield County folks love the Crabtrees. We've never stopped rooting for Mark.
 
sapientia et veritas said:
It's 21 for you guys, Harry. Time to start a new thread! Keep hope alive. And hey, us Fairfield County folks love the Crabtrees. We've never stopped rooting for Mark.
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I could pull up dozens of your past posts that would indicate otherwise . Go start a Hartley thread . I promise I or many others wont' read it.
 
Harrycrane said:
I could pull up dozens of your past posts that would indicate otherwise . Go start a Hartley thread . I promise I or many others wont' read it.
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Bit early to start drinking, Harry! You seem to be thick. I love Dublin. I'm more Irish than half the people in town. Great restaurants and best festival in Ohio. Always great hosts for my daughters when they played the country club sports up there. And I've always liked Crabtree. He was going to bring home a title to Fairfield County during all those almost years in Pickerington. I want him to win one for the Rocks. It's you I don't like, Stivic. Lol.
 
New Bremen vs Warren KC - CP Line NB - 19

Almost kick off in the first game of the rest of the finals weekend . D-7 and Marion Local isn't involved ? That's a good thing actually . NO offense to the Flyers who I have nothing against , BUT sometimes a New Bremen " story is something that is needed . And in this most tenuous of season , a New Bremen story is a nice jolt of energy and rooting interest. They have run a MAC gauntlet and come out a bit scathed , but got Legend Marion Local in round two of their series this year winning the more important one. Doesn't happen very often to ML. I think what happens when a team like Minster gets this far and beats down some of the MAC in doing so ? Well they had to get by a Catholic last week and this week ? They eeked out a win last week, survived and advanced.

New Bremen is better, Kennedy has had some close calls , but this number is too high , I will watch some bits and pieces and hope for a competitive one. NB unlike ML isn't here all the time obviously, this number seems too high for them . I made it 14 . I'll take the 5 points of value and hope for a closer NB win .

NB 27 Kennedy 16
 
sapientia et veritas said:
Bit early to start drinking, Harry! You seem to be thick. I love Dublin. I'm more Irish than half the people in town. Great restaurants and best festival in Ohio. Always great hosts for my daughters when they played the country club sports up there. And I've always liked Crabtree. He was going to bring home a title to Fairfield County during all those almost years in Pickerington. I want him to win one for the Rocks. It's you I don't like, Stivic. Lol.
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Again , multiple posts over the years that indicate otherwise . Stop projecting old angry drunkard . I think you're a POS personally and you've proved it over and over. Stone cold sober as a matter a fact HOLE. You hating me ? You think I care about that ? It's your bashing the kids, community , coaches, and culture in personal ways that makes you a POS, not personally hating me .
 
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