Dublin Coffman 2023

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EL Dud on a scale of 1-5 ( 5 being most ) what is your nervousness level for MVille ? I remember being only mildly concerned last year in week 11 and Coffman went out as a 17 point fav. Berlin by a few scores but MVille covering seems right

After watching the prior game, there is still some there, but not much. MV did move the ball pretty well but did themselves in getting two punts blocked. Even if you take those 2 plays away, they only scored one real TD and Berlin's D seems to be able to handle them in a bend-dont-break variety. Very little threat for consistent, effective throwing the ball, but never know when a fluke play can get in there.

Berlin has been very lethargic in 1Q the last 4 weeks really and falls behind and looks like they might lose. Then they come up with a big special teams or defensive play that energizes the team at some point before halftime. I expect this game will be closer than the reg season game if MV cleans up their special teams, but unless they come up with some new offensive plays in short order, hard to predict a win for them. I give them 1 chance in 8.
 
After watching the prior game, there is still some there, but not much. MV did move the ball pretty well but did themselves in getting two punts blocked. Even if you take those 2 plays away, they only scored one real TD and Berlin's D seems to be able to handle them in a bend-dont-break variety. Very little threat for consistent, effective throwing the ball, but never know when a fluke play can get in there.

Berlin has been very lethargic in 1Q the last 4 weeks really and falls behind and looks like they might lose. Then they come up with a big special teams or defensive play that energizes the team at some point before halftime. I expect this game will be closer than the reg season game if MV cleans up their special teams, but unless they come up with some new offensive plays in short order, hard to predict a win for them. I give them 1 chance in 8.
Coffman came out as flat as Olive Oyl last year got behind but to their credit took some control of the game in the second half and went ahead by a few , but what turned it back towards MVille was a pass that gained a lot of yards and got them not only needed yardage and first down but the momentum back . Kind of a fluky play. That was Marysville first ever win over Coffman and they seemed to want it just a little more . It meant a lot to them .
 
Mentioned a couple “ Old Dublin spots to grab a bite or drink pregame , but if Fairmont fans want something more basic sports type bar you can take the Tuttle exit and hit BJ’s brew house on the right in the mall area . Or if you crave a burger get off at the same exit go past the mall and turn right on Frantz road and you will come up upon the Rail on the right . Both are a few minute drive to the stadium. If at BJ’s go to Frantz turn left and follow all the way to Coffman road . Same for Rail . .
 
R-3 shows the average Pasteur spread of the 8 games to be 23.5 points and in R-2 it's more competitive with an average spread of 12 points. Don't think there is a contender to get to a title game in R-2 though whereas I think a couple have a shot in R-3. Gahanna and Pick North . R-2 is as wide open as we've seen it.

Newark gets into the play-offs and is getting a whopping 43 . Davidson has had Grove City's number the last few times out. last year the Grovers put up a ton of yards in the reg. season game but there was a lid on the end zone. Davidson really limited them in the play-off game. Davidson thumped them this year. They play for the 4th time in two years Friday. Louie's line is really sharp at 8. I think this one is closer than the reg season game.


Week 11

Heading to the play-offs after 10 weeks this has been my best year vs. the Pasteur line overall in the reg season at a rounded off 71 percent clip [ 65-27} 3.8 games over 500 weekly on average. Numbers are sharper now and some really challenging games to figure.

Olentangy - 23 Jerome-

Watched a tape of the game two weeks ago and Tangy was deadly on offense but Jerome was getting some things done offensively. Think this is a bit heavy, and Jerome can play without the same tightness as the Braves might who have much higher expectations with the hotshot QB and high powered passing attack. Jerome can sling it a bit themselves and the back door should at least be open. The Country Clubbers have had a disappointing season to say the least but they got a nice win last week , played Tangy fairly well and will compete hard here.

Tangy 31 Jerome 16
 
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Week 11 cont.

Davidson - 8 Grove City -

8, 9 match-up and a good one potentially. Davidson has only given up 16 points in the last two weeks vs Liberty and UA but has only scored 10. They will have an easier time moving it this week vs defensively challenged GC. GC had a much easier less physical game last week vs Westland after being really challenged by New Albany Westy Central, Pick North and Gahanna dropping all 4. Some competitive [WC NA} the other two not so much. No shame in that those two are the best teams in CO this year. Davidson seems like the obvious choice after the last three matchups, but I do harken back to some of the yardage that GC put up and didn't capitalize on and I think maybe they do a bit better and keep it closer.

Davidson 28 Grove City 23


Berlin - 23 Marysville-

Line is heavy. Made it 17. Automatic take with that much disparity. Berlin is better than this M-Ville club, but not that much better. Line was 19 just a couple weeks ago. Getting an extra 4 now after Marysville lost by 20 some of the margin special teams related, has me thinking this one could stay within a couple scores. Not sure the line shouldn't be closer to the 19 it was.

Berlin 27 M-Ville 13
 
Week 11 cont.

Findlay - 11 Liberty-



Kind of like one of those 12- 5, 11-6 March madness match-ups that show a small point spread and it becomes a popular side. Liberty is that type of team based on reputation playing well against Northwestern Ohio teams and peaking later in the season. They did lose a close one to Davidson late though but come in off a nice 14 pt win vs. district rival Orange. Beat UA, so it's conceivable they can win this one. The comp here is may be Anthny Wayne where they were a 15 pt favorites and lost by 4. I think this one feels like a come down to the last quarter and possibly last couple drives type game.

Findlay crushing Whitmer by 26 as a 3 pt favorite recently has this line a bit inflated even if it is a 14 vs 3 match-up. Liberty has played a better schedule. Much better really. Pasteur has Liberty playing a top 10 toughest schedule in D-1 and Findlay the 60th toughest of 71 teams. Liberty will expect to win here. That can go a ways .


Liberty 23 Findlay 20
 
Week 11 cont.

Whitmer - 7 Perrysburg

P-Burg off a bad loss to Anthony Wayne and having lost by 15 to this club as a 4-pt. dog the line going up to 7 is warranted here. Have seen Whitmer and Perrysburg up close a couple times when they played Coffman and the Rocks were clearly better than both. Not as much now as it's more evenly matched, but it's pretty clear the NW section of R-2 has been a bit down the last 5 years or so. Anyway this line is a bit light to me and I see Whitmer winning by a couple scores. Haven't seen these teams recently but numbers say it's a two TD win for Whitmer

Whitmer 28 P-Burg 14
 
No dog in the fight at all. Just commenting regarding some ppl claiming an easy victory over Fairmont etc. be careful. They’re the Type of team that can sneak up on ya. Very well coached and disciplined. Don’t let them score first because they will bleed That clock and next thing you know a whole quarter is gone. Not saying they will win but they compete In every game. I see a low scoring game. Maybe a 14-7 or 21-14 type game
 
No dog in the fight at all. Just commenting regarding some ppl claiming an easy victory over Fairmont etc. be careful. They’re the Type of team that can sneak up on ya. Very well coached and disciplined. Don’t let them score first because they will bleed That clock and next thing you know a whole quarter is gone. Not saying they will win but they compete In every game. I see a low scoring game. Maybe a 14-7 or 21-14 type game
I don’t see anyone here claiming it’s going to be an easy game . Quote it if it’s here please .cite the people you claim said this
 
Ironically Coffman wants to bleed the clock as well . Coffman plays the fastest moving games most weeks . This one will be another lightening quick game and the margin will be small whoever wins . Now if this was 2020 or most years the previous 2 decades and a 5-5 Fairmont team came into Coffman stadium ? I would be honest and say the Rocks would roll most likely.

This game will be decidedly closer than the other two games Fairmont played in central Ohio in round one with this coaching staff (. 8 years) where Bradley blew them out scoring 49 and Liberty pulled away 35-7
 
I don’t see anyone here claiming it’s going to be an easy game . Quote it if it’s here please .cite the people you claim said this

go back and look at the thread. You’ll see them. “They are just a worse Version of Davidson and we shouldn’t have an issue winning at least 2 games” I’m paraphrasing but you get what I’m saying
 
Well no actual Coffman fan has said that here certainly not me that winning two games is anything close to a given whatsoever . I remember the worse version of Davidson quote but that’s not a Coffman fan . This isn’t a 2020 or previous Coffman era teams where that level team (s) would blow a 5-5 Fairmont team out. That’s not where the program is now . Fairmont has one playoff win the last 8 years .( Rocks have 8 I believe in that time frame ) They have gotten beaten handily the other times they came to CO in the playoffs. Facts . May be they get win number 2 and this game will certainly be competitive . Rocks lost to lower seeded Marysville last year so losing this year to Fairmont wouldn’t shock anyone . Surprise ? A little . Pasteur has this one at 8 points .
 
Week 11 cont.


Springfield - 5 at Wayne -

Tough first round match-up for both teams. Springfield is a very surprising 12 seed having lost some close games including one to Wayne earlier on . Wayne had bene a bit more consistent but inexplicably lost to a few win team by 30+ . Of course the yardage was similar but it was one of those everything that can will go wrong games. Springfield lost 10-7 to Coffman first round opponent Fairmont, and by a TD to Centerville. Pretty even match-up but like Springfield as a solid play-off team and the confidence that many wins brings even after a tough reg. season by thier standards especially.

Springfield 24 - Wayne 17
 
Week 11 cont.

Pick Central - 12 New Albany

Since that 20-0 loss to Lancaster, the Eagles have been playing well week in and week out. Improved and they like to run the rock and control the game that way. Pick C is a couple scores better, and the Tigers were rolling but have had a few close calls lately against this class of team. 12 is a sharp number as you go back and forth quite easily and it's not a game I would take for real. But it's interesting and a solid match-up. NA should be competitive and hang in hopefully


Pick Central 23 New Albany 13
 
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Week 11 cont.

Darby - 7 Groveport Madison

Nice match-up here. Really hard to figure how these styles will match-up with each other . Darby is more consistent as a program but the teams appear equally matched and pretty even by all metrics. 7 is probably fair and Darby could roll a bit, but I think this one is going to be a classic play-off game with some excitement and grabbing a TD could be useful

Darby 24 GPM 20

Not much excitement in Blacksburg which is a good thing for us as we have seen Syracuse pretty much pack up their tents very early it appears as they are fading badly. VA Tech rolling big laying only 2.5 so unless the ghosts of Donvan McNabb come back to lead the Orange? We bag this one.
 
Week 11 cont.

Westerville North -18. Lancaster

Gaels are often said to be challenged by speed and athleticism . Many teams are of course and WN has some athletes . The line seems right and is sharp . Gaels did hold up Va. Pick Central as a larger dog but is that just a rivalry thing ? I think it’s an improvement thing and Pick C is not elite this year . Gaels can hang in here for a while . Can they limit the big play and use the clock ?

Westy N. 24. Lancaster 10
 
Week 11 cont.

Westerville North -18. Lancaster

Gaels are often said to be challenged by speed and athleticism . Many teams are of course and WN has some athletes . The line seems right and is sharp . Gaels did hold up Va. Pick Central as a larger dog but is that just a rivalry thing ? I think it’s an improvement thing and Pick C is not elite this year . Gaels can hang in here for a while . Can they limit the big play and use the clock ?

Westy N. 24. Lancaster 10
curious to see Westy North perform without the Robinson kid who is ineligible for the postseason. Big loss
 
Week 11 cont.

Coffman - 8 Fairmont

Another interesting game from a scheme and game management standpoint. The cliche you hear most times is we aren't going to change anything; we will do what we do and that's that. Not going to change anything now. Well sometimes when your opponent is trying to do some of the same things you are doing, some small tweaks can be useful. Both teams are well prepared and battle tested. Per Pasteur numbers Fairmont has the 15th toughest schedule in D-1. Coffman the 10th strongest. OCC Central was a meat grinder with solid programs and good coaches and the Rocks only averaged 15 points a game in league play. They gave up 19 a game. They were inconsistent week to week. Injuries certainly played a role in this. They want to establish the run, but are more balanced than a grind it out mostly run team like Fairmont. Common foe is Centerville where the Rocks beat the Elks by 8 points winning the turnover battle but also outgaining them. Fairmont was ahead 6-0 for a large portion of their match-up with Centerville.

Rocks have done a pretty good job vs. the run overall and when healthy were very stout vs. more pedestrian teams. Their weaknesses defensively were against the pass and at times running QB's. Fairmont will run most of the time. Fairmont plays complementary football and their offense grinding out first downs has helped out the defense. Only run heavy comparable the Rocks played was Davidson and they shut that part down fairly well but were hurt by the pass ironically in the 4th quarter in a 21-0 first half to a hang on for dear life stop a two point conversion at the end 21-20 win. This is a tough handicap and is very interesting to see who may adjust what they do even if ever so slightly to make a difference. Rocks came out really slow last year and got behind Marysville early. Expended some energy to eventually take the lead and a bit of control of the game. Can't afford to come out like that this year. Can't have the other team want it a bit more than you do. Coming back from a few scores down can happen but it always takes something from you. Like a basketball team coming back from 18 down to get even later in the game, they often run of out gas and give up a late run that cost them the game because they had to expend too much energy coming back. This one will be physical and the team that wants it more and concentrates better over 48 minutes and executes better will win this evenly matched contest. As long as the Rocks come out ready from the opening moments, compete as hard and with as much purpose as their opponent.? They will be just fine and the outcome will take care of itself. They come out slow get behind like last year? Fairmont wants it a bit more? It's anyone's game and they could lose. I am thinking they will be ready. Go Rocks


Rocks 20 Fairmont 14
 
Well I think it's time for the Davidson AD to take a hard look at this coaching staff. The 4 year sample shows 5 games under 500. This was the lowest attendance I have ever seen at a Davidson home game. The first 3 quarters of the last 7 games this year, 21 quarters total, the offense generated a grand total of 15 points. I don't ever want to hear again coach White had a boring offense during his tenure. This has been a horribly painful 7 game stretch.
 
Berlin with an extremely ugly win, Marysvilles QB went out in the first series with a knee injury and the backup had 2 lost fumbles and 2 INTs. Berlin should have won this game by 50, but continued to be extremely uninspiring on offense and only led 10-0 at halftime. Marysville could not have had 100 yards of offense in this game, yet they were in it for nearly 3Q because they were just one fluke play away from making it a game. Berlin's defense deserves tons of credit, but not sure how well facing the backup QB tonight prepared them for the rest of the playoffs. Perrsyburg visits next week.

It appeared Tangy came out and took no prisoners, going up 4 TDs quickly and pretty much staying there. Rocks held serve against a stubborn opponent and Orange predictably did nothing against Centerville, but we all know Zeb will be back next year.

Those were the only 4 high seeds to win in the region! Its bedlam as 4 lower seeds won tonight. Liberty goes for 2 to complete a comeback against Findlay, setting up a very interesting rematch with Coffman, and with any luck winner of that will play Berlin in a short travel semifinal.

Springfield, who crushed Wayne in a battle of 2 of the most talented but undisciplined teams in the region, gets a rematch with Centerville.

Miamisburg handled Delaware easily with their backup QB and gets Tangy for their trouble.
 
Pretty solid night vs. the Louie line again with a 6-3-1 mark , and looking forward to round two match-ups in week 12 which to me and some others is the real start of the play-offs in D-1 anyway as basically everyone gets in. That is not to say there wasn't some really exciting and competitive games last night. Liberty play-off magic is alive and well and the 3 win Patriots get their 4th win in incredible fashion. Not surprising to anyone around here especially and called for that upset outright but grabbing the points was a best bet type play. A ML play in that spread range would have been a nice score. Coffman again like they couldn't against another run mostly team in Davidson couldn't put the game away in the second half .

But this is the play-offs and any win is good and something to be happy about. The Rocks came out really well playing physically but they went empty backfield early on , got the ball into Hudson's hands a few times, minutes ran for first downs, White mixed in and they take over 9 minutes off of the clock to take a 7-0 lead. Fairmont sensing, they had a quarter they didn't really have the ball went for it on 4th and 1 and the QB fumbled it and the Rocks took over at the 30 and went in for another score early second quarter and they were in great shape. White had a nice run and Hart running for another first down , Cox comes in and Hart eventually gets his second TD.

Fairmont has a nice drive going , getting some 4th downs, QB is a big tough runner and Turner runs hard and well. They get into Rocks territory and look like they have some momentum and may score. On first down they rip off a nice 6-7 yard run but fumble it at the end of the run and the Rocks escape the first half with a 14=0 lead. But the Rocks don'[t score another point and that is a cause for concern , but just last week they scored two TD's in the second half . Rocks force a punt and have the rock at their own 45 up 14. Rocks stumble and punt . Clock moves fast and suddenly there are just a few minutes left in the 3rd quarter, and the 4th quarter starts with the Rocks still up 14. Fairmont starts at their 21 and channeling Davidson 4th quarter promptly hits on a 30 yard pass. Turner with a few gashing runs and the Firebirds finish off the drive with a TD. Rocks eventually have to punt as the clock gets towards 4 minutes ,and Fairmont gets the ball at their own 46. Nice rollout pass completion and the Firebirds are moving. QB runs it into the end zone on a nice fake pull the ball out scamper is called back and the Rocks eventually get an interception and run the clock out. Fairmont as expected covered the 8 points and stayed in the ball game for the entirety and the Rocks had to sweat a bit too much no doubt.

Liberty on deck and the Patriots have won the two previous play-off match-ups 21-7 in 2018 in a regional final and 18-15 in 2020 in a round three game. Rocks have owned the Patriots in the regular season and Stokes is 2-1 against them and that one loss was the only one the Patriots have had as the Rocks have won 10 of the contests. This one will be a close one no question and hopefully the Rocks health is good as a few seemed dinged up last night. Avoiding a D-1 passer in Findlay's Montgomery is good news no question, BUT Liberty looms and the Rocks need to get that Patriots play-off monkey off of their back next week.

Rocks defense has been excellent the last 3 weeks. Gave up 21 to UA but there was a UA defensive pick 6 and one of the offensive Bears TD's was off of a blocked punt giving them the ball very deep in Rocks territory. Only gave up 7 to higher scoring Bradley and 7 last night. So they will need to keep this up next week. Not a great college card or at least not that exciting in terms of monster matchups.

But there are a few games that look good and a few totals that I will share shortly.
 
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