Dublin Coffman 2022

Week 13 cont.

Gahanna - 5 Pick Central at DeSales

This line is a bit light. The Lions have proven after a slow start on offense to be the clear best team in CO. There is really no argument. All due respect to PC which has bene the best team overall the last decade and had tons of play-off experience, much more than Gahanna has, the teams aren't 5 points apart power ratings wise. Yes, I know the first game in week 5 was 22-20, but the Lions were clearly the better team snap for snap. Gained 5.6 a play and gave up only 4 yards a play to the Tigers. ran 60 plays to only 39 for PC. 336 yards to 163. PC couldn't run it gaining only 59 yards on 22 carries. PC was 7-17 passing for 104 yards. 2-8 on third down and 0-1 on 4th. Gahanna ran it 49 times for 260 yards but did struggle throwing completing only 4 of 11 for 77 yards. They were only 4-11 on 3rd down and 1-3 on 4th.

PC strategy appears to be clear. Key on Hubbard and make the Soph. QB Ward beat them which will be harder as PC has the athletes in back, BUT game one between the two Biles was out there and he won't be this week. Gahanna defense appears to have some real advantages in defending the Tigers and I look for them to keep them under 20 for sure in terms of the offense scoring points on their own. PN played really hard last week vs. PC and gained 6 yards a play , but they also didn't limit the PC offense and got outgained. Also made more mistakes, including a punt snap that cost them a TD in what turned out to the difference. Gahanna is a more buttoned up team and eviscerated the Panthers in week 10. PC is always a tough out and they will be competitive here, but I just think this is the Lions year and at this price I have to lay it with the team I think will be a bit more effective on both sides of the ball .

Gahanna 23 PC 13
 
Harrycrane said:
Week 13 cont.

Gahanna - 5 Pick Central at DeSales

This line is a bit light. The Lions have proven after a slow start on offense to be the clear best team in CO. There is really no argument. All due respect to PC which has bene the best team overall the last decade and had tons of play-off experience, much more than Gahanna has, the teams aren't 5 points apart power ratings wise. Yes, I know the first game in week 5 was 22-20, but the Lions were clearly the better team snap for snap. Gained 5.6 a play and gave up only 4 yards a play to the Tigers. ran 60 plays to only 39 for PC. 336 yards to 163. PC couldn't run it gaining only 59 yards on 22 carries. PC was 7-17 passing for 104 yards. 2-8 on third down and 0-1 on 4th. Gahanna ran it 49 times for 260 yards but did struggle throwing completing only 4 of 11 for 77 yards. They were only 4-11 on 3rd down and 1-3 on 4th.

PC strategy appears to be clear. Key on Hubbard and make the Soph. QB Ward beat them which will be harder as PC has the athletes in back, BUT game one between the two Biles was out there and he won't be this week. Gahanna defense appears to have some real advantages in defending the Tigers and I look for them to keep them under 20 for sure in terms of the offense scoring points on their own. PN played really hard last week vs. PC and gained 6 yards a play , but they also didn't limit the PC offense and got outgained. Also made more mistakes, including a punt snap that cost them a TD in what turned out to the difference. Gahanna is a more buttoned up team and eviscerated the Panthers in week 10. PC is always a tough out and they will be competitive here, but I just think this is the Lions year and at this price I have to lay it with the team I think will be a bit more effective on both sides of the ball .

Gahanna 23 PC 13
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Can I get PC +10 for $1000?
 
Pickeringtonsports said:
Can I get PC +10 for $1000?
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NO the line is 5 . Why would I give you 10 lol. Just watched a bit more of the PN -PC tape , Do you see PC moving it easily? Has PC improved more than Gahanna since the first meeting between the two teams? May be PC keeps it close and or wins, wouldn't shock me, but I would have made the line 7.
 
Penn State - 10 over Maryland -

Terps on the road for the third time in 4 weeks and are not going in the right direction. Scored only 10 at Wisconsin last week and the Nittany Lions defense defends the pass better and that is what MD wants to do and does best. MD is fading going 0-4 ATS the last 4 {1-5 Last 6} and lost by 13 last week and that is about the minimum I see PSU winning this one by. Since the Michigan giving up 400 on the ground debacle at Michigan the Lions are 3-0 ATS with blowout wins at home vs. Minnesota {45-17}-A game we cashed as Minnesota was playing QB-2} and on the road at Indiana 45-14. In between these beatdowns they played OSU really tough for 3 plus quarters in Happy Valley. Franklin has a clear path to 10 wins which he knows is the minimum they expect there after paying him the king's ransom. The other thing he is smart enough to realize and he doesn't really like Maryland, or their coach is that they actually compete with the Terps for the better players in DC and MD and the Middle Atlantic at large. Of course, PSU has the bigger brand and should win these recruiting battles, but this is a new day and I think PSU rolls here by a couple TDs at least.

No look ahead as Rutgers is next for PSU and MD plays the Buckeyes at home next week. Hmm.
 
Harrycrane said:
NO the line is 5 . Why would I give you 10 lol. Just watched a bit more of the PN -PC tape , Do you see PC moving it easily? Has PC improved more than Gahanna since the first meeting between the two teams? May be PC keeps it close and or wins, wouldn't shock me, but I would have made the line 7.
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I noticed the score prediction 23-13 so I figured I would put a grand or two on that. With that said, I will take PC +5 for $1000. Send me an IM on how/when we meet up to pay/collect. I can use Venmo or Cash App as well.
 
Pickeringtonsports said:
I noticed the score prediction 23-13 so I figured I would put a grand or two on that. With that said, I will take PC +5 for $1000. Send me an IM on how/when we meet up to pay/collect. I can use Venmo or Cash App as well.
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Not a bookie, I bet on CFB, the NFL and College hoops mainly [ Which is Just starting up } so yes I predicted that score but I don't take bets. I make them .
 
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Tough enough betting on College kids week to week but High school kids? Wouldn't ever bet real money on them especially without good info, You being a Pickerington guy I would take your action lol ? Would never actually bet on HS kids and it is not available for obvious reasons . You think anyone is taking your action as a Pickerington guy on a Pickerington game. Are you Ok or just posing?
 
So Give me a break down on what makes you really confident that PC is the better team ? May be they win , but I'm curious what makes you think so .
 
I always find it a bit amusing when every so often some one takes one of my predictions personally . I mean week to week these teams ( 15-18 year olds ) change and aren’t always consistent . Head scratching results abound . Pick Sports obviously took a 10 point prediction difference between Gahanna and PC personally . I looked at the numbers from game one where Hubbard ran all over them . That won’t happen again certainly . The yardage disparity in Gahanna’s favor will lessen from the first meeting . Game will be tight but I think Gahanna is a bit better and I think a 7-10 point win is reasonable . Of course PC at playoff time is tough . They are also playing a better team than PN this week . May be they get another special teams TD and win . Should be a good one . Would love to hear a case for a PC win and what advantages ( besides the obvious experience and pedigree edge ) they hold over Gahanna
 
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Good memories of the Kenny RR in Vegas circa late 90’s . There were a few locations in the valley , There was one near our płace on Rainbow If I remember correctly. They closed a couple years later . It was tasty I thought. Some still around and. I
Think there is some overseas ?

“. I love Broccoli “. It’s good for you “.
 
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Harrycrane said:
I always find it a bit amusing when every so often some one takes one of my predictions personally . I mean week to week these teams ( 15-18 year olds ) change and aren’t always consistent . Head scratching results abound . Pick Sports obviously took a 10 point prediction difference between Gahanna and PC personally . I looked at the numbers from game one where Hubbard ran all over them . That won’t happen again certainly . The yardage disparity in Gahanna’s favor will lessen from the first meeting . Game will be tight but I think Gahanna is a bit better and I think a 7-10 point win is reasonable . Of course PC at playoff time is tough . They are also playing a better team than PN this week . May be they get another special teams TD and win . Should be a good one . Would love to hear a case for a PC win and what advantages ( besides the obvious experience and pedigree edge ) they hold over Gahanna
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No inside intelligence, just a homer. But if I can get the Tigers and points against a Central Ohio team, in November, I am going to jump on that action all day.
I do think PC can win on Friday. Historically, PC has done very well against teams they have already played earlier in the season. I can only think of one game that PC lost to the same team twice in the same season and that was to Pick North back in 2012. PC has 40+ seniors who all know that it’s win or go home. Play time is over.
 
Pickeringtonsports said:
No inside intelligence, just a homer. But if I can get the Tigers and points against a Central Ohio team, in November, I am going to jump on that action all day.
I do think PC can win on Friday. Historically, PC has done very well against teams they have already played earlier in the season. I can only think of one game that PC lost to the same team twice in the same season and that was to Pick North back in 2012. PC has 40+ seniors who all know that it’s win or go home. Play time is over.
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I hear you . You’re right , it’s hard to beat a team like PC twice . Did UA do it one year ? Or was it once regular season and another year playoffs ? I could look
It up I suppose . Anyway. good luck to your Tigers
 
Week 13

Upper Arlington - 9 New Albany at Westy Central

UA is a hot team, getting a ton of turnovers and holding teams to 6 points a game average the last 5. The concerning thing about the bears is the rushing yards they can be susceptible to giving up. Liberty gashed them in a come from behind 28-27 win . over 7 yards a pop . Liberty isn't a great rushing team. NA is a really good running team. PN ran for some yards vs UA as well and grinded out a close win. NA won a one point decision over PN. NA scored 24 vs Gahanna but was outgained badly per play.

UA will use Janowicz a really solid LB at QB. He has been very good in part time duty. 19-25 coming off the bench after Hayek got hurt last week for 204 yards. He is 30 43 overall good for 361 yards [over 8 yards per attempt} He is a capable runner as well. UA is banged up at RB as well. NA has some revenge going from last years blowout at this stage last year to UA but both teams were playing a lot of different players as both were more Senior laden. Both these teams have been really good at times and just OK at others. Westy Central , UA has handled pretty well. NA got blitzed by Liberty , but UA also got kind of gashed in a much closer game of course. Tough call. But NA with some incentive and UA with some bumps and bruises = a a bit of a closer game.


UA 24 NA 20
 
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There was a metric in the NFL going back a ways that was looked at by many teams that looked at the number of rush attempts and completed passes tells an accurate story of how well your team is executing and managing the game.

This came from the great Bill Parcells and his tree of coaches. The game has changed a bit since then and the percentages are less in terms of the team that has the higher number and or hits that sweet spot of 51-55 wins a high percentage of games. But they still win more than lose [comfortably over 60 percent}

HS football with its prevalence of spread offenses and less reliant on the run can be sometimes looked at in similar fashion. Even at the NFL level you see teams who don’t operate efficiently and often are just calling plays trying to be creative scheme wise without strategizing how to better “. Win the game “control the game better “.

You see this in teams who can’t close out games properly, give up leads, stay stuck in the mud, and or just get better at finding ways to “. Not win “because they have no real identity which points to not being efficient as well.

With a HS game bring 12 minutes shorter this type of magic number involving teams who at least attempt to have a passing attack, the combined number would be in the lower 40’s. This metric holds up pretty well I have noticed looking at who has won and lost ballgames the last few weeks certainly and in random key games I looked at during the season.

Coffman as we know found a “formula “in trying to be efficient, shorten the game, and. play complementary football. Their offense can be very good next year following this modus operandi (. At least 35 rushes and 10 completions) but can get to the next level being more dynamic adding a higher amount of explosive chunk plays in the passing game. Add about .05 to 1 more yard a carry running it as well.

Looking at some of these metrics to may be find an edge in a few more games tonight, but looking at Coffman there was a direct correlation to thier winning some of the games they did and how easily or not they won, which of course other factors like turnovers, and outlying number of explosive plays and or yards per play metrics.

Week one SJ. Jesuit - Ugly ballgame where the Rocks got outgained and the numbers in this metric was 45-39 in SJJ's favor . The Rocks won14-7 because they held well in the red zone and won the turnover battle by one. And finished that one more drive than SJJ did.

Week 2 Centerville led this 48-37- and the Rocks gave up some special teams and offensive gaffe's that led to points to widen the margin to 48-14. Yards per play and overall yards suggests a closer game than this.

Week 3 was interesting in that Coffman wins this metric big 61-36 running 23 more plays total but only wins by 2 {28-26} because they gave up almost 9 yards per play on defense.

Week 4 Jerome - Rocks lose the metric 53- 33 as Jerome ran 16 more plays and the game was fairly close because the Rocks played good red zone defense . turnovers hurt the Rocks in a 16-7 loss

Week 5 Westy Central - Blowout all around Rocks win this metric 55-26 [WC QB out} 35-0

Week 6 Liberty, Rocks start to get on a roll and gain momentum finding their 'formula" having the advantage 51-34 in the metric and controlling the game to a T. 14-9 .

Week 6 - Orange - Workman like 56-43 advantage and the results [35-7} were larger because of punt block and a weird big play at the end of the half .

Week 7 Davidson - 28-14 win - pretty even in terms of completed passes and rushing attempts here, 44-42 to Davidson but Rocks after claiming they were going to prove their manhood and undo Davidson is just tougher than Coffman history we now play in a "phone booth", mantra throws two deep balls down field to get a 14-0 lead early.

Week 8 UA - close as UA with a 47-42 advantage in a 17-7 win for the Bears. Rocks can'[t finish drives and lose the turnover battle after playing really clean the previous month

Week 9 Bradley - Easy win as they dominate in execution 61-35 and win 28-7 giving up a late TD to just miss getting the shutout. If you look at Bradley over the year you see this metric in the 30's often and they simply didn't have a real identity and didn't execute their offense very well most of the year despite some real talent. Loparo has some work to do here because he returns some of this talent and needs to do better.

Week 11 Marysville - M-Ville grinds out a 53-43 advantage here and wins after the Rocks seemingly gain control of the game and have momentum after falling behind 14-0 and 21-7. getting a 24-21 lead and M-Ville stalling on offense . Well the Monarchs complete a surprising 30 yard pass to grab some momentum and finish the drive off well and take the lead. Rocks can't drive it down turns over on downs and M-Ville runs out the clock .
 
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OldDB said:
You people seriously bet on HS sports?
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NO . There is no place to bet HS sports nor should there be and I clearly state that if you read correctly, that I wouldn't take bets or ever bet on HS sports . You people? Who are you? and what is your affiliation if you have one. College and pro sports betting will be legal and operational in Ohio in less than two months
 
Harrycrane said:
NO . There is no place to bet HS sports nor should there be and I clearly state that if you read correctly, that I wouldn't take bets or ever bet on HS sports . You people? Who are you? and what is your affiliation if you have one. College and pro sports betting will be legal and operational in Ohio in less than two months
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Sorry. The bolded part below made me think there might be a situation where you would bet on a HS football game.
Harrycrane said:
Tough enough betting on College kids week to week but High school kids? Wouldn't ever bet real money on them especially without good info, You being a Pickerington guy I would take your action lol ? Would never actually bet on HS kids and it is not available for obvious reasons . You think anyone is taking your action as a Pickerington guy on a Pickerington game. Are you Ok or just posing?
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Of course there is no place to formally place bets on HS sports but that doesn't mean you can't bet on a game. You don't believe all betting only happens through bookies do you?

What do you mean by my affiliation? Are only certain people allowed to post in here? Sorry....I am new and don't know all the "rules".
 
OldDB said:
Sorry. The bolded part below made me think there might be a situation where you would bet on a HS football game.

Of course there is no place to formally place bets on HS sports but that doesn't mean you can't bet on a game. You don't believe all betting only happens through bookies do you?

What do you mean by my affiliation? Are only certain people allowed to post in here? Sorry....I am new and don't know all the "rules".
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No rules, but saying things like 'you people "? No one is betting on HS games as far as I know and I wouldn't do it , but I only speak for myself. Post away my man. Tell us what's on your mind. What program do you follow ? You like Dublin Coffman? CO football ? Welcome
 
Harrycrane said:
No rules, but saying things like 'you people "? No one is betting on HS games as far as I know and I wouldn't do it , but I only speak for myself. Post away my man. Tell us what's on your mind. What program do you follow ? You like Dublin Coffman? CO football ? Welcome
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You people is just an expression. Doesn't mean anything negative.
 
Welcome new member. Did the propsect of you thinking people actually bet on HS sports bring you to the forum? The 'especially without real information " part was just an expression of the absurdity of formal HS sports betting. Of course, I am fully aware that people make wagers with friends or foes on HS games . Barroom bets, friendly bets etc. I am not one of them although I clearly post here about legit betting sports. The Pasteur numbers are used as a point spread and a fun way of talking about the games.
 
Harrycrane said:
Welcome new member. Did the propsect of you thinking people actually bet on HS sports bring you to the forum? The 'especially without real information " part was just an expression of the absurdity of formal HS sports betting. Of course, I am fully aware that people make wagers with friends or foes on HS games . Barroom bets, friendly bets etc. I am not one of them although I clearly post here about legit betting sports. The Pasteur numbers are used as a point spread and a fun way of talking about the games.
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My interest in HS sports brought me to the forum. Is that ok? Being new I looked at some of the topics on the front page. Someone wanting to bet $1000 on HS game I thought was curious.

Sorry if I offended you.
 
OldDB said:
My interest in HS sports brought me to the forum. Is that ok? Being new I looked at some of the topics on the front page. Someone wanting to bet $1000 on HS game I thought was curious.

Sorry if I offended you.
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The new poster to this site always ends his last post with 'Sorry If I offended you ". I'm actually laughing so no you didn't offend me. People bet on all kinds of things, he was just a fan of PC and saw my opinion that I thought they would lose and reacted. No real bet was ever going to take place. Season winding down. Hopefully we see more of your thoughts next season
 
OldDB said:
My interest in HS sports brought me to the forum. Is that ok? Being new I looked at some of the topics on the front page. Someone wanting to bet $1000 on HS game I thought was curious.

Sorry if I offended you.
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OldDB said:
My interest in HS sports brought me to the forum. Is that ok? Being new I looked at some of the topics on the front page. Someone wanting to bet $1000 on HS game I thought was curious.

Sorry if I offended you.
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Yes, nobody is betting money on high school games. Most of us have been on this forum for several years and know that.

Sorry if I offended you.
 
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